2016

WATER RESOURCES SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT

FOR
BITS PILANI

By
Onkar Ashish 2014A2PS602P
Mayank Vikhona 2014A2PS623P
J.R. Venkat Ashrith 2014A2PS293P
Aman Bansal 2014A2PS789P
Piyush Kumar 2014A2PS782P

WATER RESOURCES SCENARIO

DEVELOPMENT
FOR
BITS PILANI
AN INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
Scenario Development is a process of evaluating possible future events through the
consideration of alternative plausible (though not equally likely) outcomes (scenarios). The
analysis is designed to enable improved decision-making and assessment through a more
rigorous evaluation of possible outcomes and their implications. For environmental impact
assessment studies, the process of scenario development typically involves making explicit
and/or implicit assumptions about potential future conditions, such as climate change, land
cover and land use changes, population growth, economic development, and technological
changes. Realistic assessment of scenario impacts often requires complex integrated
modeling frameworks that represent environmental and socio-economic systems to the best of
our knowledge, including assumptions about predicted future conditions.
In addition, scenarios have to be developed in a context relevant to the stakeholders involved,
and include estimation and communication of uncertainties, to establish transparency,
credibility, and relevance of scenario results among the stakeholders.
This report reviews the state-of-the-art of scenario development and analysis, proposes a formal
approach to scenario development in environmental studies, discusses existing issues, and
makes some recommendations for future research in this area.

PHASES OF THE SCENARIO DEVELPOMENT

Scenario Defination

Scenario Construction

Scenario Analysis

Scenario Assessment

Risk Management

The report uses the above methodology for the complete process of Scenario
Development of Water Resources and Management.
Current Situation
Existing situation shows that Ground Water level of Pilani is constantly falling at
alarming rates. The steady equilibrium of the water cycle has been disrupted. The rate
of water consumed is greater than rate at which water is being replenished.
BITS Pilani Campus is dependent solely on GW for daily activities. There is no direct
water supply and sewage treatment plant water is used for irrigation and watering of
green cover of the campus.

PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
The report covers three probable scenarios of water resource and management. The above
phases are then defined for these scenarios.
1. Best Case Scenario
This scenario develops a situation where there have been abundant rainfall for
consecutive years and ground water table has shown considerable increase.
Also, sufficient steps have been taken to conserve water strictly and yielded positive
results.
2. Normal Scenario
This scenario predicts steps being taken to control falling GW depth by proposed water
conservation techniques. This aims to reduce dependence on ground water
3. Worst Case Scenario
This scenario develops a situation under which drought hits the Rajasthan State.

DATA COLLECTED
All the previous data was collected from Mr. Preecha Ranjan, Engineer-in-charge Water Supply
, BITS Campus.

Description of data collected

Sources of water
Following are the sources of water being used in BITS-Pilani
1) Ground water
2) Wastewater treatment plant
1) Groundwater
Year

Average amount of water being used per

day
16 Lakh Liters
12 Lakh Liters
11 Lakh Liters
11 Lakh Liters

2016
2015
2014
2013

Average amount of water used per year (Lakh Liters)

AVERAGE AMOUNT OF WATER BEING USED PER DAY

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2012

2013

2014

2015

Year

2016

2017

2) Wastewater Treatment Plant

Plant Location
Outside BITS Pilani
Behind BITS - Library
Usage Detail (2016)
Entity using water

People living within

BITS Pilani
Construction Sites
Irrigational
Purposes
Other Usage
(Maintenance)
Total

Plant Maximum Capacity (MLD)

1
1.5

Quantity of water
used (per day)

Number
of entities

140 Liters per

person
1 Lakh liters per
construction site
1.8 Lakh liters per
day
3 Lakh liters per
day
-

Cost Detail (2016)

Source
Ground Water
Sewage treated water

Figure 1 Current tube well and their depths

Source of water
being utilized

5500

Net water
Being used
(per day)
7.7 Lakh

4 Lakh

Ground water

1.8 Lakh

Treated water

3 Lakh

Ground water

15.7 Lakh (G.W.) and 1.8 Lakh (T.W.)

Cost per day

Rs. 30000
Rs. 10000

Ground water

1. Best Case Scenario

Scenario Definition:Time horizon considered
Spatial Extent
System Components considered
Driving Forces
Factor Exogenous to System

10 Years
BITS Pilani Campus
Water Distribution and Utilization
Ground Water levels after 10 years, Water
consumption by Students, Faculty, Institute in daily
functioning, treated water by STP
Contaminants from the nearby from the pond on
the backside off the bus stand, cooperation of the
government with the BITS Pilani

Scenario Construction and Analysis:The rate of consumption of water in college is extremely high, even in best
scenario our consumption of water is leading to scarcity of water in tough
situations. Laundry services provided in campus exhaust 100 liters per machine
per wash and in our campus we have 12+8 = 20 machines, each wash takes 20
minutes and laundry services are open for 12 hours, so total amount of water
spend = 100*20*3*12 = 72000 liters. Large amount of water is wasted in flushing
in urinals, on an average 1 flush waste 6liters of water which sums up to
6*2*12*14*5 + 6*8*2*6*10 =15840 liters per day. Similarly, on an average 1 car
uses 378.5 liters of water for washing, assuming only 50 cars in campus amount
of water wasted on car washing = 18925 liters. Also, on an average 1 hand wash
exhaust 2.3 liters of water and in campus amount of water on hand wash =
2.3*5000 = 115000 liters. And. All the data correspond to per day consumption.
According to the predicted results these water demands would be achieved but
consistency of these demands would create scarcity problem.

In the best scenario, we assume that the rainfall will be abundant in the coming
10 years. The monsoon will arrive on time and give enough rainfall for sustaining
the needs of the people. The total number of annual rainy days in Pilani is around
34 and all these 34 days maximum amount of rainfall occurs. The wells which
were earlier dry and dysfunctional will now become active again and will be
replenished with water. The ground water level will also increase due to enough
rainfall. This will lead to even more availability of water to the people. Moreover, if
this water is also stored using rainwater harvesting then it can also be used for
tackling any future shortage of water.
CHANGE IN SOURCES AFTER 10 YEARS

Scenario Assessment:We have purposed some mitigation measures and alternate methods to reduce and
reuse the maximum amount of water that can be saved.
Following are the mitigation suggestions:1. LAUNDRY WATER RECYCLER: Save the rinse water from one load of laundry
in a tank and use that water to wash the next load, cutting the amount of water
you use for laundry by 50%. Front-loading washing machines use less water than
even a top-loader with the LWR, and the use less energy too. However, in
comparing the two, you also need to factor in the energy it takes to manufacture
a new washing machine. Aqua fresco washing machines reuse up to 95 % of
water.

2. HAND SANITIZERS INSTALLATION: Our campus can cut down on water used
for sanitation purposes by installing hand sanitizers in bathrooms and other
common areas. For quick sanitation purposes, a full hand wash using water is
not needed, and alcohol-based sanitizer can be used instead. This could save
115000 liters per day.
3. INSTALLING WATER MISERS: Instead of 24x7 running water on the devices,
saver sense for water that when water is needed and when it is not can reduce
the water wastage. This mitigation measure alone had saved 40 % water in
institutes.
4. WATER FREE URINALS: These types of urinals dont use water for flushing,
these urinals uses chemicals and gravity for flushing. By using these urinals we
can save up to 15000 liters per day.
5. WATERING PLANTS IN NIGHT: Watering done in our campus is done by both
manually and machines during daytime but if watering is done in night during
evening and early morning timing by machines like sprinklers and pipes, so this
can help in saving water by saving from evaporating and over spraying.

6. As per the calculations, it has been shown that on an average about 71.4
lakhs of rainwater can be stored in BITS Pilani through rainwater
harvesting in a year. This stored water can be used later in the future when any
adverse climate affects the water cycle or in case of water table drop it can
recharge the level of water underground. Most of the time the rainwater gets
mixed with drainage water and becomes unfit for use. But by storing it at one

place and then discharging it underground will provide it proper filtration and
pathway.

7. Lastly and most importantly, in this scenario since water is available in plenty so
people may take it for granted will take the problem of water scarcity lightly.
However, people should realize the importance of this scenario and should
consider it as an advantage. They should plan their strategies of water
management in such a manner so that they can prepare themselves for future
adversities by taking advantage of the present situation.

2. Normal Case Scenario

Scenario Definition:Time horizon considered
Spatial Extent
System Components considered
Driving Forces
Factor Exogenous to System

10 Years
BITS Pilani Campus
Water Distribution and Utilization
Ground Water levels after 10 years, Water
consumption by Students, Faculty, Institute in daily
functioning, treated water by STP
Contaminants from the nearby from the pond on
the backside off the bus stand, cooperation of the
government with the BITS Pilani

Scenario Construction and Analysis:The rate at which the wells are dried, it can be said that each year the
groundwater level is decreasing by 15 feet which is suggested by the data in the
other parts of the Rajasthan. The water level depth after 10 years would be:Water Level = 415 + 15*10 = 565 feet
According to the predicted results, 3 wells will become dysfunctional in 10 years.
As seen in the Figure 1, this will cause net shortage of 1.7 lakh liters per day.
CHANGE IN SOURCES AFTER 10 YEARS

This can be calculated by adding net output by the three wells which will get dried.
The current water level is taken 415 feet because well near V-Fast which is at a depth
of 400 feet got dried in 2015.
The rate at which

Scenario Assessment:Though the condition of the water level is not grave it is not a rosy situation for the
campus also. Though there are steps which are already taken for the smart use of water
such as rain water harvesting and Sewage plant, if the situation is not taken seriously
and better and more effective corrective measures arent adopted it could lead to far
more adverse situations as explained in the other section.
Following are the alternates which can be opted for:1. Setting up a system in which sewage water can be used for flushing thereby,
saving 45 liters per capita per day. Although this could require immediate
measures to be taken within project Parivartan.
2. Establishment of another Sewage plant as sewage is one of the main source as
water usage. And the present Sewage plants arent able to fully make use of the
sewage water being generated
3. As seen from the table the major consumption of the water is obviously by the
5500 population residing in the campus. Initiatives should be taken to educate
the campus residing population of the present situation and also what dire
consequences the campus might have to face if suitable action is not taken.
Simply corrective measures can be suggested to the public which will go a long
way in the conservation of the water
4. Proper management of the present ground water resources-Care should be
taken that the present wells and pumps we have or not contaminated.

5. Educating the general public of the Pilani Town, about water conservation and
smart ways which can be adopted to save water in houses shops and fields.
6. Joining hands with the local municipality to make sure the people are educated
and to bring about rules accordingly to save water. Crops such as jowar, wheat,
barley, oil seeds are grown in the district of JhunJhunu though these require less
water ,smart irrigational activities can be adopted for water conservation
7. The situation of city of Pilani is very similar to the city of Kumamota of Japan
which was facing dire consequences 15 years ago and now due to the corrective
measures adopted it is now in good condition. Lessons can be learnt from such
examples. [ http://lowcarbonasia.org/english/city/knowledge/assets/docs/kumamoto_20150305_01.pdf]

3. Worst Case Scenario

Scenario Definition:Time horizon considered
Spatial Extent
System Components considered
Driving Forces
Factor Exogenous to System

10 Years
BITS Pilani Campus
Water Distribution and Utilization
Ground Water levels after 10 years, Water
consumption by Students, Faculty, Institute in daily
functioning, treated water by STP
Contaminants from the nearby from the pond on
the backside off the bus stand, cooperation of the
government with the BITS Pilani

Scenario Construction and Analysis:The rate at which the wells are dried, it can be said that each year the
groundwater level is decreasing by 15 feet which is suggested by the data in the
other parts of the Rajasthan. In this case, if we take an over relaxation factor of
1.5 due to lesser amount of rainfall in the past years, to the rate at which
groundwater level is decreasing, the water level depth after 10 years would be:Water Level = 415 + 1.5 *10 * 10 = 565 feet
According to the predicted results, 4 wells will become dysfunctional in 10 years.
As seen in the Figure 1, this will cause net shortage of 2.3 lakh liters per day.
CHANGE IN SOURCES AFTER 10 YEARS

This can be calculated by adding net output by the four wells which will get dried.
The current water level is taken 415 feet because well near V-Fast which is at a depth
of 400 feet got dried in 2015.
The rate at which

Scenario Assessment and Risk Assessment:In the deficit of 2.4 lakh liters per day, we would have to find an alternate source.
Following are the alternates which can be opted for:1. Setting up a system in which sewage water can be used for flushing thereby,
saving 45 liters per capita per day. Although this could require immediate
measures to be taken within Project Parivatan.
To introduce a system in the new hostels that would redirect the water from
sewage plants to flushing systems. If this is done after renewal of hostels, it
would radically increase the operation cost. In order to achieve this target, we
should introduce this earlier in the system before the water scarcity occurs.
On an average, we would be saving 2.47 lakh liters per day which is greater
than net water deficit occurred in this scenario.
2. Digging more wells of greater depth to supply immediate water supply at the
drought scenario can provide a temporary solution to the water problem.
Although this would have a higher operational cost. Moreover, the money
invested in digging the new wells might become a waste if the water level is
decreased further thus creating a less efficient system. Therefore, taking
precautionary measures that this step is not required to be taken is very much
important.
3. Using rainwater harvesting to recharge the ground water over a period of time as
a long term measure in order decrease the rate at which the water level is
decreasing. This would require low operational cost and construction cost.

Here we have discussed two points which can be taken into consideration for long term
and immediate steps to be taken if the ground water is radically decreased. These
future predictions are done based upon certain assumptions. These assumptions can
be looked upon carefully for Risk Assessment.