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necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI),
the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they
represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and
accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not
necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
November 2016
Policy Research Institute
Ministry of Finance, Japan
Outline
. Introduction
14
Introduction
(%)
(%)
40
Projected
Actual
40
Japan
Actual
Projected
China
Japan27.5
35
India
Germany
30
30
Germany21.4
25
20
Indonesia
Japan
Korea
France
U.K.
Philippines
U.S.
Viet Nam
Thailand
20
15
France19.5
10
U.K.18.0
U.S.15.2
14
10
0
1950
1970
2000
2030
2050
2016
(Note) Aging rate is referring to age 65 and older ratio to the total population.
(Sources) Japan 1950-2010: National Census (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications)
2011-2050: Japanese Future Demographic Projections (National Institute of Population and
Social Security Research) (January, 2012)
Other countries: World Population Prospects: the 2015 Revision (United Nations)
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
(Note) When the proportion of population ages 65 and older exceeds 7%, that situation is
labeled that the society is aging and when it exceeds14%, it is named as aged society.
(Sources) United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision
Japan(25)
(Note) Figure shows starting and ending year for transition from 7 percent (aging) to 14 percent (aged) of population ages 65 and older.
Aging and aged thresholds are based on United Nations definitions. East Asia and Pacific economies rounded to five-year increments.
(Sources) World Bank estimates based on data from UN 2013 and Kinsella and He 2009.
120
100
80
China
India
60
Indonesia
South Korea
Phillipines
40
Thailand
United States
20
Note Data is combined with Historical Public Debt Database and World Economic Outlook Database
Sources IMF
Japan
United States
United Kingdom
Germany
250
France
Japan
France
200
United Kingdom
150
United States
100
Germany
50
0
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Note Data is combined with Historical Public Debt Database and World Economic Outlook Database
Sources IMF
Collapse of
Bubble Economy
120
101.0
100.7
100.2
100
89.0
80
75.1
70.5
65.969.3
60
46.9
43.4
29.1
24.5
21.9
20.9
13.8
5.3
3.2
2.1
15.7
7.2
3.7
3.5
61.5
57.7
60.1
54.9
53.0
53.6
51.5
50.8
47.2 50.6
46.8
78.8
75.9
26.9
29.0 30.5
23.7
32.4
54.1
51.9
Total Expenditures
52.1
49.4
51.0
50.7
47.2
47.9
37.5
34.0
33.0
19.9
17.0
6.7
27.5
6.4
18.5
25.4
6.6
6.3
6.7
6.2
6.4
6.3
6.7
1.0
0.2
9.5
16.4
9.2
0.8
24.3
16.9
21.9 20.9
28.7 26.8
25.8
23.5
8.4
54.0
47.0
40.9
11.4
7.0
56.4
57.6
38.5 36.4
6.6
6.5
34.4
6.1
6.0
36.9
10.7 9.9
16.2 12.3
7.6
7.0
13.2
9.5
47.5
43.9
42.8
41.5
33.2
7.8
16.2
7.2
15.0
38.7
8.7
9.1
52.0
42.3 42.8
31.3
9.1
11.1
51.0
44.3
13.2
49.1
49.1
43.8 45.6
43.3
30.0
18.4
84.7
81.8
Tax 53.9
revenues
54.4
17.3
85.581.4
82.4
41.9
34.9
84.9
78.5
70.5
59.8
95.3
89.3 84.8
83.7
38.2
38.8
34.1
40
20
73.6
96.7
98.8
97.1
84.4
99.7
26.2
21.1 19.3
8.5
2.0
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
(FY)
80
51.2
43.2
36.6
29.7
25.3
20.7
6.2
10
13.3
16.1
60
Public Works
15.9
23.0
17.6
40
17.4
20
17.7
16.0
21.6
18.8
20.7
32.7
3.5
1.5
11.1
14.1
1960
1970
Social Security
24
12.7
others
18.8
16.6
19.7
1980
1990
2000
0
2015
(FY)
(%) 100%
100
90%
90
80%
80
34.5
19.2
19.8
21.2
25.7
29.7
6
5
70%
70
60%
60
(% of GDP)
14.1
26.6
35.6
37.8
30.8
29.6
50%
50
7.5
40%
40
30%
30
20%
20
51.4
8.8
7.6
2
44.7
43.7
34.7
34.7
36.4
2000
2010
2015
10%
10
0%
0
0
1972
1980
1990
FY
1972
1980
Total social
security-related
expenditure ()
1.6 trillion
8.2 trillion
Social securityrelated
expenditure to
GDP ratio (%)
1.7
3.3
1990
2000
2010
(FY)
2015
3.3
5.7
6.2
(Note) The data of social security- related expenditures are from each years general account expenditures of national budget. The total social security
expenditures of national budget in 2015 are about 30% of all social security benefits (basic pension, medical care, long-term care, etc.).
(Sources) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Japanese Social Security Statistics Database,
Okawa and others The long term economic statistics I National income
10
Populationten thousand
14,000
Projected (2012)
12,806
11,662
12,000
3,685
10,000
8,674
8,000
6,773
3,464
Aged 15-64
6,000
4,000
Proportion of
population
aged 65 and
over
39.9%
Proportion
of workingage
population
50.9%
4,418
Total
fertility rate
1.35
2,000
1.39
(2010)
1,204
791
0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(Note)
Actual numbers above are those calculated as of October 1 of each year before 2010.
Sources Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication National Census and Population Projection, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
Japans Demographic Composition in the Future (estimation as of January 2012), Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Vital Statistics
2060
11
28 years
1973
The first year of high-level
social welfare
Women
Men
42 years
Women
30 years
2015
Last year
Men
Women
100
age
65
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
40
50
90
80
80
70
70
60
The second
baby boomers
Age:71~74
50
50
40
30
30
30
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
0
100
100
40
30
20
Women
60
50
The first baby
boomers
Age:24~26
Men
The first baby
boomers
Age:96~98
90
2045
Near future
50
100
100
50
0
0
40
50
100
100
50
50
100 100
50
50
Year
1945
1975
2015
2045
Average age
27.3
32.5
46.5
52.8
Aging rate
5.1%
7.5%
26.8%
37.7%
A similar country to
Japan at that time
Myanmar
Brazil
100
(ten thousand )
(Note) 1945s population pyramid based on East Asian age reckoning. Average age of 1945 is an estimated value. Aging rate is referring to age 65 and older ratio to the
total population.
(Sources) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Population Projection, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research,
Japans Demographic Composition in the Future (estimation as of January 2014), UN World Population Prospects 2015 revision
12
(% of GDP)
39.90%
40%
40
10.31%11.00%
Public pension
10
10%
9.93%
Aging rate
35
35%
9.73%9.91%
Health care
7.30%
6.01%6.11%
Age-related spending
30%
30
29.1%
29.75%30.78%
5
5%
25
25%
Long-term care
2.45%
23.65%
20
20%
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
0
0%
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
(FY)
(FY)
(Notes)
1. It followed the method of European Commission (2012). The projection of age-related spending made under the current systems in Japan.
2. Age-related spending: Spending where per person expenditure is different by age, including for social security benefits (pension, health care, long-term
care) and for education and others.
3. It estimated based on Required size of the required fiscal adjustment for Japans fiscal management -Projected by referring to quantitative analysis pertaining
to dynamic fiscal imbalance, Ueda, Yoneda, Ota 2014
4. The numerical values are for the case of using economic precondition of scenario A~E based on Actuarial Valuation of Public Pension Plans (June, 2014)
after 2024.
(Sources) Ministry of Finance
13
First year of
high-level
social welfare
(1973)
Establish of health
services scheme for
the aged (1983)
(FY)
1950
Year
Topics, etc.
Life expectancy
(Men)
Life expectancy
(Women)
55
60
65
70
75
80
1970
1980
1960
Establish of
Establish of
universal health First year of highhealth services
insurance and
level social
scheme for the
universal pension
welfare
aged
coverage
85
90
95
2000
05
10
15
1990
2000
2010
2015
The bubble
economy period
Establish of public
long-term care
insurance system
Last year
65.3
69.3
73.4
75.9
77.7
79.6
80.8
70.2
74.7
78.8
81.9
84.6
86.3
87.1
Aging rate
5.7
7.1
9.1
12.1
17.4
23.0
26.7
2.0
2.13
1.75
1.54
1.36
1.39
1.46
(Note) Social security benefits include medical care, long-term care and basic pension (excl. individual payments in the medical and the long-term care). They are financed by social
insurance premiums as well as the tax revenue of central and local governments. The total social security benefits in 2015 were about 116.8 trillion.
(Sources) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Population Projection, Labour Force Survey, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Abridged Life Table, Vital Statistics
15
2.2
Projections(as of 1986)
2
1.8
1.6
1.4
Actual value
1.2
1
69
74
79
84
89
94
99
4
9
(Sources) Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Future Population Estimates for Japan by Sex and Age, Estimated in August 1969,
Vital Statistics, Institute of Population Problems Population Projections for Japan: 1985-2085
Projections(as of 2012)
40
30
10
6.2
Actual value
20
Projections(as of 1975)
(FY)
(%) 50
14
0
1970 80
90 2000 10
20
30
40
50
(FY)
(Sources) National Institute of Population and Social Security Research Population
Projections for Japan 2011-2060, Institute of Population Problems
Future Population Estimates for Japan by Sex and Age, 19702050-
Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Population Projection
5.5
Actual value
19731988
6.9 (average)
19902014
3.7 (average)
16
Health-Care Expenditure
70+ to 75+
(FY)
(FY)
(Notes)
1.The per-capita health care expenditure is forecast according to actual per-capita GDP growth. The projection gap in the health care expenditure reflects the projection error not only in the
per-capita expenditure but also in demographic changes.
2. The definition of the aged people is based on health care system for the aged (Roujin-hoken seido) until 2007 and long-life medical care system (kouki-koureisha-iryo seido)
thereafter. The former system basically covers people at 70 or above, which is gradually narrowed to 75 or above from 2002 to 2007, while the latter system basically covers people at 75 or
above. The projection for the aged people also reflects the change in the age classification. The health-care expenditure for the others covers all the expenditures excluding the expenditure
for the aged.
17