Project Work 2016

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK
No.
Content
Page
1.
Appreciations
2.
2.
Introduction
3.
3.
Part 1
3(a)
A short history of probability
4.
3(b)
Discrete & continuous probability distribution
5.
4.
Part 2
4(a)
Marks of Add. Maths Test
7.
4(b)
Mean & standard deviation
8.
4.
5.
Part 3
Part 4
9.
10.
6.
Further Exploration
13.
7.
Reflection
17.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 1
1. APPRECIATIONS
I, would like to take this opportunity to thank my teacher,

.
for his / her guidance and explanation on how to carry out this
project work. Without his/ her help, I will not be able to complete the project work in
time. I would also like to thank my parents for their financial and moral support given to
me in carrying out this project work. Finally I would like to thank my friends
.. for their co operations and their team spirit in solving
all the problems in the project work.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 2
Introduction
Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of hypotheses given
the evidence for them, and on the other hand the behavior of stochastic processes such as the
throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is historically older in, for example, the law of
evidence, while the mathematical treatment of dice began with the work of
Cardano, Pascal and Fermat between the 16th and 17th century.
Probable and probability and their cognates in other modern languages derive from medieval
learned Latin probabilis and, deriving from Cicero and generally applied to an opinion to
mean plausible or generally approved. The mathematical sense of the term is from 1718. In the
18th century, the term chance was also used in the mathematical sense of "probability" (and
probability theory was called Doctrine of Chances). This word is ultimately from Latin cadentia,
i.e. "a fall, case". The English adjective likely is of Germanic origin, most likely from Old
Norse likligr (Old English had geliclic with the same sense), originally meaning "having the
appearance of being strong or able" "having the similar appearance or qualities, with a meaning
of "probably" recorded from the late 14th century. Similarly, the derived noun likelihood had a
meaning of "similarity, resemblance" but took on a meaning of "probability" from the mid 15th
century.
Probability in our lives
i) Weather forecasting
Suppose you want to go on a picnic this afternoon, and the weather report says that the chance of
rain is 70%? Do you ever wonder where that 70% came from?
Forecasts like these can be calculated by the people who work for the National Weather Service
when they look at all other days in their historical database that have the same weather
characteristics (temperature, pressure, humidity, etc.) and determine that on 70% of similar days
in the past, it rained.
If our meteorologist has data for 100 days with similar weather conditions (the sample space and
therefore the denominator of our fraction), and on 70 of these days it rained (a favorable
outcome), the probability of rain on the next similar day is 70/100 or 70%.
Since a 50% probability means that an event is as likely to occur as not, 70%, which is greater
than 50%, means that it is more likely to rain than not.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 3
ii) Batting averages

Let's say your favorite baseball player is batting 300. What does this mean?
A batting average involves calculating the probability of a player's getting a hit. The sample
space is the total number of at-bats a player has had, not including walks. A hit is a favorable
outcome. Thus if in 10 at-bats a player gets 3 hits, his or her batting average is 3/10 or 30%. For
baseball stats we multiply all the percentages by 10, so a 30% probability translates to a 300
batting average.
This means that when a Major Leaguer with a batting average of 300 steps up to the plate, he has
only a 30% chance of getting a hit - and since most batters hit below 300, you can see how hard
it is to get a hit in the Major Leagues!
PART 1
1(a) History of probability
Eighteenth century
Jacob Bernoulli's Ars Conjectandi (posthumous, 1713) and Abraham de Moivre's The
Doctrine of Chances (1718) put probability on a sound mathematical footing, showing how to
calculate a wide range of complex probabilities. Bernoulli proved a version of the
fundamental law of large numbers, which states that in a large number of trials, the average of
the outcomes is likely to be very close to the expected value - for example, in 1000 throws of
a fair coin, it is likely that there are close to 500 heads (and the larger the number of throws,
the closer to half-and-half the proportion is likely to be).
Nineteenth century
The power of probabilistic methods in dealing with uncertainty was shown by Gauss's
determination of the orbit of Ceres from a few observations. The theory of errors used the
method of least squares to correct error-prone observations, especially in astronomy, based on
the assumption of a normal distribution of errors to determine the most likely true value. In
1812, Laplace issued his Thorie analytique des probabilits in which he consolidated and laid
down many fundamental results in probability and statistics such as the moment generating
function, method of least squares, inductive probability, and hypothesis testing.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 4
Towards the end of the nineteenth century, a major success of explanation in terms of
probabilities was the Statistical mechanics of Ludwig Boltzmann and J. Willard Gibbs which
explained properties of gases such as temperature in terms of the random motions of large
numbers of particles.
The field of the history of probability itself was established by Isaac Todhunter's
monumental History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability from the Time of Pascal to that
of Lagrange (1865).
Twentieth century
Probability and statistics became closely connected through the work on hypothesis testing of R.
A. Fisher and Jerzy Neyman, which is now widely applied in biological and psychological
experiments and in clinical trials of drugs, as well as in economics and elsewhere. A hypothesis,
for example that a drug is usually effective, gives rise to a probability distribution that would be
observed if the hypothesis is true. If observations approximately agree with the hypothesis, it is
confirmed, if not, the hypothesis is rejected.
The theory of stochastic processes broadened into such areas as Markov
processes and Brownian motion, the random movement of tiny particles suspended in a fluid.
That provided a model for the study of random fluctuations in stock markets, leading to the use
of sophisticated probability models in mathematical finance, including such successes as the
widely used BlackScholes formula for the valuation of options.
The twentieth century also saw long-running disputes on the interpretations of probability. In
the mid-century frequentism was dominant, holding that probability means long-run relative
frequency in a large number of trials. At the end of the century there was some revival of
the Bayesian view, according to which the fundamental notion of probability is how well a
proposition is supported by the evidence for it.
The mathematical treatment of probabilities, especially when there are infinitely many possible
outcomes, was facilitated by Kolmogorov's axioms (1933).
1(b) Discrete vs. Continuous Variables

If a variable can take on any value between two specified values, it is called a continuous
variable; otherwise, it is called a discrete variable.
Some examples will clarify the difference between discrete and continuous variables.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 5
Suppose the fire department mandates that all fire fighters must weigh between 65 and
115 kg. The weight of a fire fighter would be an example of a continuous variable; since a
fire fighter's weight could take on any value between 65 and 115 kg.
Suppose we flip a coin and count the number of heads. The number of heads could be any
integer value between 0 and plus infinity. However, it could not be any number between 0
and plus infinity. We could not, for example, get 2.5 heads. Therefore, the number of
heads must be a discrete variable.
Just like variables, probability distributions can be classified as discrete or continuous.
Discrete Probability Distributions

If a random variable is a discrete variable, its probability distribution is called a discrete
probability distribution. An example will make this clear. Suppose you flip a coin two times. This
simple statistical experiment can have four possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and TT. Now, let the
random variable X represent the number of Heads that result from this experiment. The random
variable X can only take on the values 0, 1, or 2, so it is a discrete random variable.
The probability distribution for this statistical experiment appears below.
Number of heads
Probability
0.25
0.50
0.25
The above table represents a discrete probability distribution because it relates each value of a
discrete random variable with its probability of occurrence.
Note: With a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the discrete random
variable can be associated with a non-zero probability. Thus, a discrete probability distribution
can always be presented in tabular form.
Continuous Probability Distributions
If a random variable is a continuous variable, its probability distribution is called a continuous
probability distribution.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 6
A continuous probability distribution differs from a discrete probability distribution in several

ways.
The probability that a continuous random variable will assume a particular value is zero.
As a result, a continuous probability distribution cannot be expressed in tabular form.
Instead, an equation or formula is used to describe a continuous probability distribution.
Most often, the equation used to describe a continuous probability distribution is called
a probability density function. Sometimes, it is referred to as a density function, , or a pdf. For a
continuous probability distribution, the density function has the following properties:
Since the continuous random variable is defined over a continuous range of values (called
the domain of the variable), the graph of the density function will also be continuous over
that range.
The area bounded by the curve of the density function and the x-axis is equal to 1, when
computed over the domain of the variable.
The probability that a random variable assumes a value between a and b is equal to the
area under the density function bounded by a and b.
PART 2
2(a) Below are the marks of Additional Mathematics of 40
students in my class:
50
48
62
44
46
53
38
56
40
33
41
62
67
32
22
36
75
43
28
45
61
60
56
27
36
70
80
73
43
59
28
15
50
36
68
46
75
61
52
60
2(b)To find the mean and the standard deviation for the
marks of Additional Mathematics in my class
Yap Poh Lai
Page 7
mean
x
N
var iance
1977
49.425
40
( x x)
s tan dard deviation
9801.78
245.04
40
( x x)
N
15.65
The marks of Additional Mathematics in my class can be group

into table below.
marks
frequency
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
0
1
4
7
10
9
5
4
Upper
boundary
10.5
20.5
30.5
40.5
50.5
60.5
70.5
80.5
Cumulative
frequency
0
1
5
12
22
31
36
40
Now I draw an ogive based on the above table. From the ogive:
(i)
Yap Poh Lai
The probability that a student chosen at random has mark

less than 20
Page 8
1
40
=
and the number of students who are above 20 is
40-1 = 39 students.If my district has 2000 students taking
Additional Mathematics 2016, the number of students
getting above 20 marks will be
39
x 2000 1950
40
(ii)
The school targets 30% of the students to be in the elite

group.
30
x 40 12
100
students.
From the ogive , to be in this group , a student has to
obtained 56 marks and above.
As a candidate in the SPM 2016 examination, the following are the

activities and program I would like to suggest to my school so as
to achieve the above targets :
1.
2.
PART 3
Yap Poh Lai
Page 9
intended to participate in the School Canteen Day. It is given that the number of
My class
F (t ) 1800 cos(
customers in each stall is following the function
t
) 1800
6
Where F is the number of customers and t is the time starting from 9.00am.
F (t ) 1800 cos(
t
F
t
F
t
) 1800
6
9am
0
3pm
3600
10am
241
4pm
3359
11am
900
5pm
2700
6pm
1800
12noon
1800
7pm
900
1pm
2700
8pm
241
2pm
3359
9pm
0
3(i) Graph of F against t is shown in the next page,

3(ii) From the graph, the Canteen Day sales reach its peak at 3 pm . At 3pm there are 3600
customers,
3(iii) At 7.30 pm there are 500 customers,
3(iv)At 11.06 , the number of customers reaches 1000.
PART 4
4.(a) Simple and Compound Interest
Interest is money paid for the use of money. The total amount of money borrowed whether by an
individual from a bank in the form of a loan or by a bank from an individual in the form of a
saving account , is called the principal.
The rate of interest is the amount charged for the use of the principal for a given length of time ,
usually on a yearly , or per annum, basis. Rates of interest are usually expressed as percentages
5% , 10% and so on. However when using rates of interest in calculations, we must use the
decimal equivalent, 0.05 for 5%.
Simple interest
Yap Poh Lai
Page 10
Simple interest is interest computed on the principal for the entire period it is borrowed.
Compound Interest
If the interest due at the end of a unit payment is added to the principal , so that the interest
computed for the next unit payment period is based on this new principal amount ( old principal
plus interest ) , then the interest is said to have been compounded. That is, compound interest is
interest paid on previously earned interest.
4(ii) To find the amount of money accumulated after 3 years.
Method 1
1.1.2016
31.1.2016
RM1000
28.2.2016
1000(1 0.004167) 2
1008.35
31.3.2016
1000(1 0.004167)3
1012.55
30.4.2016
1000(1 0.004167) 4
1016.77
31.5.2016
1000(1 0.004167)5
1021.01
30.6.2016
1000(1 0.004167) 6
1025.26
31.7.2016
1000(1 0.004167) 7
1029.54
31.8.2016
1000(1 0.004167)8
1033.82
30.9.2016
1000(1 0.004167)9
1038.13
31.10.201 1000(1 0.004167)10

6
30.11.2016 1000(1 0.004167)11
1042.46
31.12.201
6
1.1.2017
31.1.2017
1000(1 0.004167)12
1051.16
1051.1.16 + 500
1551.16(1 0.004167)
1551.16
1557.62
28.2.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 2
1564.11
Yap Poh Lai
0.05
1000(1
) 1000(1 0.004167)
12
1000.00
1004.167
1046.80
Page 11
31.3.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 3
1570.63
30.4.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 4
1577.18
31.5.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 5
1583.74
30.6.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 6
1590.34
31.7.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 7
1596.97
31.8.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167)8
1603.62
30.9.2017
1551.16(1 0.004167) 9
1610.30
31.10.201 1551.16(1 0.004167)10

7
30.11.2017 1551.16(1 1.004167)11
1617.01
31.12.201
7
1.1.2018
31.1.2018
1551.16(1 0.004167)12
1630.51
1630.51 + 500
2130.51(1 0.004167)
2130.51
2139.39
28.2.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 2
2148.31
31.3.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 3
2157.26
30.4.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 4
2166.25
31.5.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 5
2175.27
30.6.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 6
2184.34
31.7.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 7
2193.44
31.8.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167)8
2202.58
30.9.2018
2130.51(1 0.004167) 9
2211.76
31.10.201
2130.51(1 0.004167)10
8
30.11.2018 1000(1 0.004167)11
2220.98
31.12.201
8
2239.52
Yap Poh Lai
1623.75
2230.23
1000(1 0.004167)12
Page 12
Therefore the amount she has after 3 years are RM 2239.52
METHOD 2 : By using Formula

Lets develop a formula for computing the amount when interest is compounded.
Suppose the principal is P, the rate of interest per payment is r ( in decimal form), n is the number
of payment periods. Then at the end of the first payment period;
P Pr P(1 r )
At the end of the second payment period and subsequent ones;
A A A r A (1 r ) P(1 r)(1 r) P(1 r)

A A A r A (1 r ) P(1 r )
2
.
.
A A
n
n 1
An 1r
(1 r ) P (1 r ) n
n 1
The amount An accrued on a principal P after n payment periods at r interest ( in decimal form )
per payment period is P( 1 + r ) n
1st January 2016
A= P( 1 + r ) 12 = 1000 ( 1 +
RM 1000
0.05
12
) 12 = 1051.16
31st December 2016

Yap Poh Lai
RM 1051.16
Page 13

1 st January 2017
31st December 2017
RM 1051.16 + RM 500 = RM 1551.16
RM 1551.16( 1 +
1st January 2018
31st December 2018
0.05
12
) 12 = RM 1630.52
RM 1630.52 + 500
RM 2130.52 ( 1 +
0.05
12
= RM 2130.52
) 12 = RM 2239.52
After 3 years , he has RM 2239.52
5.Further Exploration
(a) Linear programming is the process of taking various linear inequalities relating to some
situation, and finding the "best" value obtainable under those conditions. A typical example
would be taking the limitations of materials and labor, and then determining the "best"
production levels for maximal profits under those conditions.
In "real life", linear programming is part of a very important area of mathematics called
"optimization techniques". These "real life" systems can have dozens or hundreds of variables,
or more.
The general process for solving linear-programming exercises is to graph the inequalities (called
the "constraints") to form a walled-off area on the x,y-plane (called the "feasibility region"). Then
you figure out the coordinates of the corners of this feasibility region (that is, you find the
intersection points of the various pairs of lines), and test these corner points in the formula
(called the "optimization equation") for which you're trying find the highest or lowest value.
Example 1 :
Find the maximal and minimal
value of z = 3x + 4y subject to the
following constraints:
The three inequalities in

the curly braces are the
constraints. The area of the
Yap Poh Lai
Page 14
plane that they mark off will be the feasibility region. The formula "z = 3x + 4y" is the
optimization equation. I need to find the(x, y) corner points of the feasibility region that
return the largest and smallest values of z.
My first step is to solve each inequality for the more-easily graphed equivalent forms:
It's easy to graph the system:
To find the corner points
y = ( 1/2 )x + 7
y = 3x
Yap Poh Lai
y = ( 1/2 )x + 7
y=x2
Page 15
y = 3x
y=x2
( 1/2 )x + 7 = 3x
x + 14 = 6x
14 = 7x
2=x
( 1/2 )x + 7 = x 2
x + 14 = 2x 4
18 = 3x
6=x
y = 3(2) = 6
y = (6) 2 = 4
corner point at (2, 6)
corner point at (6, 4)
3x = x 2
2x = 2
x = 1
y = 3(1) = 3
corner pt. at (1, 3)
So the corner points are (2, 6), (6, 4), and (1, 3).
the maximum and minimum values of the optimization equation will always be on the
corners of the feasibility region. So, to find the solution to this exercise, I only need to
plug these three points into "z = 3x + 4y".
(2, 6):
z = 3(2) + 4(6) = 6 + 24 = 30
(6, 4):
z = 3(6) + 4(4) = 18 + 16 = 34
(1, 3): z = 3(1) + 4(3) = 3 12 = 15
Then the maximum of z = 34 occurs at (6, 4),
and the minimum of z = 15 occurs at (1, 3).
Example 2: A small factory produces two types of toys: trucks and bicycles. In the
manufacturing process two machines are used: the lathe and the assembler. The table shows the
length of time needed for each toy:
Time on lathe (hrs)
On assembler ( Hrs)
Bicycle
2
2
Truck
1
3
The lathe can be operated for 16 hours a day and there are two assemblers which can each be
used for 12 hours a day. Each bicycle gives a profit of RM16 and each truck gives a profit of
RM14. Formulate and solve a linear programming problem so that the factory maximises its
profit.
Formulate the problem Let x be number of bicycles made Think about the simplifying
assumptions that have been made. Times are given to the nearest hour. Costs, and hence profits,
remain constant. There are enough skilled workers to work the machines for the number of hours
they can be used. Let y be number of trucks made. Objective Function Maximise P = 16x + 14y
Subject to constraints Graphical solution 2x + y 16 Lathe 2x + 3y 24 Assembler x, y 0
Yap Poh Lai
Page 16
Method 2: Profit Line Draw a line through the origin parallel to the gradient of the profit
function. Move this line up the y-axis until it is just leaving the feasible region the point at
which it leaves the feasible region is the optimum value. Method 1: Tour of vertices (0,8) profit =
RM 112 (6,4) profit = RM152 (8,0) profit = RM128 Interpret the solution Optimal solution is to
make 6 bicycles and 4 trucks. Profit RM152
Example 3 :Formulating a linear Programming in business and management
This is a simplified example will illustrates the way in which a problem relating to business is
formulated. A large sub-contractor machines special parts to order. For one order he has two
machines, X and Y available. Unfortunately, the machines perform more effectively on some
jobs than others. Machine Y can do 10 units per hour on contracts from Alpha Ltd., 12 per hour
on components from Beater & Co. and 26 per hour on those from Chester Inc., while Machine X
can produce 16, 9 and 10 units per hour respectively. However, this is complicated by certain
constraints which are: Maximum number of units per month of units from Alpha, Beater and
Chester are 6,500, 4,440 and 800 per month respectively the machines X and Y are restricted to
working a maximum of 260 and 350 hours per month respectively. The problem is to find how
many hours should each machine work to maximise profits. This is answered by plotting
machine Y's hours against machine X's hours using mathematical models for the three suppliers
and then solving these using linear programming.
1. Define the variables

Let the number of hours for machine X be x Let the number of hours for machine Y be y
2. Define the constraints
The model for Alpha can be found by using the above data as follows: Machine X can produce
16 units per hour so if it works x hours the total is 16x hours. Machine Y can produce 10 units
per hour, so if it works y hours the total is 10y hours. So the model for Alpha, which cannot
exceed 6,500 is: 10y + 16x 6500 and the model for Beater which cannot exceed 4,400 is: 12y +
9x 4400. and the model for Chester which cannot exceed 8,000 is: 26y + 10x 8000.
3. Define the objective function
A profit model is necessary in order to find the conditions for maximum profit i.e. the optimum
number of hours for X and for Y. In this case, the profits on each machine's output are: X =
RM40 per hour and Y = RM24, so the total profit is P = 40x + 24y. Because of the existence of
only two variables (x and y) this can be solved by plotting the models on a graph for the three
suppliers and moving the profit model until it reaches the highest point of intersection of the
three supplier lines.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 17
5 (b)
Protein
x P
24
y Q
8
24 x 8 y 96 3 x y 12 (i )
Fats
8
16
Calcium
48
32
Fibre
10
10
8 x 16 y 80 x 2 y 10 (ii )
48 x 32 y 288 3 x 2 y 18 (iii )
10 x 10 y p 100 x y 10 (iv)
Drawing a graph baesd on the above inequalities ( graph next page)
From the graph :
Cost of the mixture = 3x + 5y

Minimum cost at (4, 3)
minimum cost = 3(4) + 5(3) = RM 27
Maximun cost at (1,9)
Maximum cost = 3(1) + 5(9) = RM 48
Reflections:
The values I learn from doing this project include:
(a) Learn to work as a team,
(b) Must be patient to obtain all the results,
(c) Dare to try different methods,
(d) Dare to confront difficult problems,
(e) Importance of accuracy,
(f) Help to improve my school performance. Contribute to the school that educate me.
Please write on your own.
Yap Poh Lai
Page 18

Project Work 2016

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Project Work 2016

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

A short history of probability

Discrete & continuous probability distribution

Marks of Add. Maths Test

Mean & standard deviation

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

I, would like to take this opportunity to thank my teacher,

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

ii) Batting averages

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

1(b) Discrete vs. Continuous Variables

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

Just like variables, probability distributions can be classified as discrete or continuous.

Discrete Probability Distributions

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

A continuous probability distribution differs from a discrete probability distribution in several

As a result, a continuous probability distribution cannot be expressed in tabular form.

Instead, an equation or formula is used to describe a continuous probability distribution.

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

s tan dard deviation

The marks of Additional Mathematics in my class can be group

Yap Poh Lai

The probability that a student chosen at random has mark

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

The school targets 30% of the students to be in the elite

As a candidate in the SPM 2016 examination, the following are the

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

customers in each stall is following the function

3(i) Graph of F against t is shown in the next page,

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

31.10.201 1000(1 0.004167)10

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

31.10.201 1551.16(1 0.004167)10

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

Therefore the amount she has after 3 years are RM 2239.52

METHOD 2 : By using Formula

At the end of the second payment period and subsequent ones;

A A A r A (1 r ) P(1 r)(1 r) P(1 r)

1st January 2016

31st December 2016

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

31st December 2017

RM 1051.16 + RM 500 = RM 1551.16

1st January 2018

31st December 2018

After 3 years , he has RM 2239.52

The three inequalities in

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

It's easy to graph the system:

To find the corner points

Yap Poh Lai

ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS PROJECT WORK

corner point at (2, 6)

corner point at (6, 4)

corner pt. at (1, 3)