CHANAKYA -2016

~UNLOCK THE STRATEGIST WITHIN

CASE STUDY ROUND

Chanakya, IIM Indore

AN ALLIANCE OF CONVENIENCE
With the national elections soon approaching in the small island of Indies, Mr.Demkar, the chief
strategy officer of the Janta National Congress (JNC) had a lot going in his mind as he looked
through the window. JNC had ruled the nation for more than 50 years and as the next elections
neared Mr.Demkar wanted to ensure that his party continues to remain in power. After 50 years
of rule, this was the time when JNC was facing a major opposition from the newly formed Khaas
Aadmi Party (KAP) and the incumbency sentiment had also given a chance to the oldest
opposition party Indies Janta Party (IJP) to come to power.

Current Political Scenario

The current political scenario in the island was filled with cases of corruption and policy
paralysis. The island has had the worst growth rate in the last three decades. Crime against
women was on the rise. This lead to public outburst of anger and people were looking for
change.

Regional Players
There were two more regional political parties that were controlling the dynamics of the entire
elections. Both the political parties were different in ideologies as compared to JNC and IJP. Due
to the outburst of anger of the people the KAP party was formed. It was controlled majorly by
NGOs and corporate leaders. The regional players were also considering forming a coalition with
the major parties so that they get to play big in the Centre. The parties were SuryaMool Congress
(SMC) and TimeWadi Party (TP)

Strategies Available
The KAP was already running strong due to their clean image of candidates and were riding on a
major political wave.
The JNC had many options available with them as they were seeing the end as near, they had to
decide on whether to form a pre poll alliance or a secret post poll alliance or go alone into the
elections by replacing the top leadership. There was a change coming into the helm of affairs at
JNC. Being ruled by dynasties of leadership, a new leader Mr.Nath had emerged within the JNC
Ranks who was not part of the dynasty. He was part of the party from the past 30 years and was
responsible for the success of the party in Southern Pradesh. The strategic team of JNC was
pondering on making him the face of the party as he was very popular amongst the masses. Also
Mr. Naths relations with the KAP leadership were very good as he was part of the various social
development programs that KAP leaders were undertaking with the JNC before forming the
party. He was the face of JNC when interacting with the civil society members which later on
Chanakya, IIM Indore

went to become the central leadership of KAP. Also KAP leaders wanted to see Mr. Nath head
the JNC. The KAP leaders might then mull for an alliance with JNC as it would lead to an
ideological fit.
The implications of various strategies and the seats distribution are shown in the various exhibits
below:

Exhibit 1
Indies is divided into five states:

Northern Pradesh

Southern Pradesh

Western Pradesh

Eastern Pradesh

Central Pradesh

Exhibit 2
Current ruling parties in the states and Seat Distribution:

State
Northern
Pradesh

Total Seats
38

JNC
22

IJP
12

KAP
0

SMC
2

TP
2

Southern
Pradesh

32

23

Western
Pradesh
Eastern
Pradesh
Central
Pradesh

65

15

30

14

43

29

82

30

45

Total Seats = 260

JNC = 97, IJP = 62, KAP = 0, SMC = 37, TP = 64
The central government is being ruled by the coalition government of JNC and SMC and with
just a majority of 134 seats; hence the SMC keeps on threatening the JNC on policy making
issues. The coalition was formed out of a post poll alliance and SMC were given two seats in the
cabinet ministry.

Chanakya, IIM Indore

Exhibit 3
Expected Seats after 2014 elections according to Welsen Survey:

State
Northern
Pradesh

Total Seats
38

JNC
2

IJP
12

KAP
20

SMC
2

TP
2

Southern
Pradesh

32

14

13

Western
Pradesh
Eastern
Pradesh
Central
Pradesh

65

14

23

15

12

43

17

82

26

40

Total Seats = 260

JNC = 60, IJP = 73, KAP = 56, SMC = 24, TP = 47
If the results are assumed to be true, the post poll alliance can lead JNC to power again with
SMC and TP. Also from the past 4 elections, the results predicted by Welsen Survey have been
completely accurate and precise.
TP having a strong hold in Central Pradesh, JNC was considering a pre poll alliance to reduce
the split up of seats with BJP and KAP. It is known from past data that with a pre poll alliance
the split up of seats reduces and the locals of the particular Pradesh votes for the alliance only it
they see the unifying theme or ideology of the two political parties.

Questions

Which strategy should JNC choose

as Head/ No Change/Any other?

What should be the parameters that a party should evaluate before entering into a
coalition?

What will be the response of IJP and KAP be to the expected results survey? Will they
also try to enter into coalition politics to counter JNCs chosen strategy? Explain based on
the strategy chosen by you for first question.

Chanakya, IIM Indore