TABLE OF CONTENT

1 Basic Information........................................................................................................ 2
2 Industry Swot Analysis ............................................................................................... 2
2.1 Strength ............................................................................................................... 2
2.2 Weakness ............................................................................................................ 3
2.3 Opportunity ......................................................................................................... 3
2.4 Threats................................................................................................................. 3
3 Company Swot Analysis............................................................................................. 3
3.1 Strength ............................................................................................................... 3
3.2 Weakness ............................................................................................................ 3
3.3 Opportunity ......................................................................................................... 4
3.4 Threats................................................................................................................. 4
4 Investment Strategy .................................................................................................... 4
4.1 Investment Decision............................................................................................ 4
4.2 Investment Proportion......................................................................................... 5

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 1 Basic Information
Scrip Code : BSE:500335, NSE:BIRLACORPN, FV : 10
Current Market Price 362

2 Industry Swot Analysis

2.1 Strength
Demand oversurged the Supply for Next decade upto 2017
Consumption of Cement (worldwide) to be growing from 2568mta (2009) to
3560mta (2020)
CAGR growth rate 8-9%
Consumption Statistics World wide
Consumption in INDIA 286 mta
1400
Consumption in CHINA mta
Consumption in USA 100 mta
Consumption in Russia 62 mta
Consumption in Brazil 60 mta
Consumption in japan 60mta
Consumption in south korea 60mta
Consumption in Vietnam 60mta
Consumption in italy 60mta
consumption in Iran 55mta

Per Capita Consumption figures

Per Capita Consumption in Kg
in India 125kg
Per Capital Consumption in
Kg in CHINA 1000kg
Per Capita Consumption in Kg
in USA 305 kg
per capita consumption in kg
in in Russia 410 kg
per capita consumption in kg
in in Brazil 238 kg
NOTE :: India and China are self sufficent for their supply and demand

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 2.2 Weakness

Highly capital incentive industry and longer gestation period

Packaging form good portion of the cost
Power form good portion of the cost
Sensitive to Interest cost on Home loan and Infrastructure Industry

2.3 Opportunity

2.4 Threats

Fall in Demand in China may result in diversion of cement production of china to

india market. Pose serious threat to domestic industry.

3 Company Swot Analysis

3.1 Strength
In growing
Good Sales Growth
Good operating margin
Good Track Record
Established player in the market
Leading company of foremost business house of india.
Promoter stake of 63%

3.2 Weakness

Company has was under flagship of M P Birla, which was then managed by his
wife Mrs Priyamvadaji Birla and After demise of Mrs Priyamvadaji Birla has
gone to Rajendra Singh Lodha
The confict of ownership is been continuously between Lodha and Birlas. This
pose serious threat to successful running of the company and result in any of
sudden twist affecting the share price.

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 3.3 Opportunity

3.4 Threats

4 Investment Strategy
Keep a close watch on the development of the conflict of Ownership. Will be
very good buy in case of change of ownership in favour of Birlas

4.1 Investment Decision

Worst case In case of Mar 2010 Mar 2011

scenario Ownership
Resolved( At
current
scenario)
Lowest Price 78 237 184 214
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 Forecast
Remarks for Throw Away Right Price
Lowest Price Price --Highly (upto sep
Forecast Discount Price 2010)
(Best Buy
Option )
Highest Price 673
246 745 580
Forecast
Remarks for NA Reachable if
Highest Price the dispute rest
Forecast in favour of
Birlas

The best accumulation strategy should be : Buy below the price of 252 , Quantity
increasing with 10% fall in price

4.2 Investment Proportion

Scrip Amount of Percentage of Max Returns

Investment Investment forecast on
Capital
Employed
Birla 5000 1% (Before the -
Corporation conflict )

50000 10% -
Total 500000 100 -
Minimum 2x multiplier stock in case of All worst case scenarios
Maximum 5x multiplier stock in case of Conflict Resolution in favour of Birla.

5 Conflict Watch
20100201 Birla Education Trust has pulled Lodha in Company law board

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