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Uncertainty Analysis for Volumetric

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Micha Antoni Michna

Wojciech Machowski

AGH University of Science and Technology in

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SP43
Uncertainty Analysis for Volumetric Calculations
with Use of Petrel Software
M.A. Michna* (AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow), W.
Machowski (AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow) & B.
Papiernik (AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow)

SUMMARY
The study presents results of volumetric calculations and uncertainty analysis of gas/water contact at the
Wilkw-Szlichtyngowa gas field. The gas field is located in the southern part of the Fore-Sudetic
Monocline, in the western part of Poland. Gas is accumulated in the Rotliegend eolian sandstones. Authors
performed modelling was to count volume of basic parameters in the gas field in the deviation +/- 5meters
from the basic deterministic gas/water contact set on 1509m bsl. For this purpose Petrel software was
used.The results show that even a slight change in depth of gas/water contact can significantly affect Bulk
volume and gas volume (HCPVg) associated with it

73rd EAGE Conference & Exhibition incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2011

Vienna, Austria, 23-26 May 2011

Introduction
The study presents results of volumetric calculations and uncertainty analysis of gas/water contact at
the Wilkw-Szlichtyngowa gas field. The gas field is located in the southern part of the Fore-Sudetic
Monocline, in the western part of Poland. Geological studies of this object were started in 1955 and
were closely related with mining history of the Sudetic Monocline. At that time gravimetric analyses
were made but first borehole was drilled in 1979 and it was Wilkw-1.Up to the present, the gas field
has been covered by over forty wells. Gas is accumulated in the Rotliegend eolian sandstones
(Karnkowski, 1999). The gas field is 11km long, 1.6 km wide. Average thickness of the reservoir is
27.2m. The brachyanticlinal structure is covered by impermeable Basal Limestone, Kupferschiefer or
salts of the Werra cyclothem. The average chemical composition of the gas includes mainly CH439.1% and N2-59.20%. The reservoir Rotliegend sandstones show an average porosity 13.3% with
average permeability 11 mD.
Methodology
Spatial 3D modelling was performed with the use of the Petrel software from SLB. For gas/water
contact uncertainty analysis the static model of petrophysical parameters was used. Structural model
was created by 100 x 100 m grid increment. Ten proportional inner layers were set, in order to divide
the model into over 110 000 cells. The base case assumed gas/water contact at 1509m bsl. Average
porosity was counted from seven alternative stochastic porosity realisations. The same procedure was
used to count gas saturation, permeability and shale content distribution.
Basic volume parameters were calculated by the Volume calculations module in Petrel. These
parameters include Bulk volume, Pore volume and Hydrocarbons Per Volume (gas in our case)
(HCPVg).
Using the Uncertainty and optimization module in Petrel, random contacts were created to study
influence of variance of contacts. Stochastic sampling algorithm - Monte-Carlo sampler (Metropolis
and Ulam, 1949) which samples the uncertain variables randomly from their assigned distributions
was used for this purpose. Number of samples was set to 20. Also Latin-hypercube sampling (Iman,
1981) was used in this case.
Results and conclusions
The main objective of the performed modelling was to count volume of basic parameters in the gas
field in the deviation +/- 5meters from the basic deterministic gas/water contact set on 1509m bsl. The
main parameters to investigate were Bulk volume, Pore volume and HCPVg. Volume calculations
indicate the best area of the gas field, which is located in the eastern part of the accumulation. This
area is controlled by four wells: Szlichtyngowa-1, Szlichtyngowa-4, Szlichtyngowa-6 and Dryyna
M-5.
In the base case Bulk volume was 557*106[m3] (Figure 1A), Pore volume was 64*106[rm3] (Figure
1B) and HCPVg was 48*106[rm3] (Figure 1C). Result of the volume calculations for the shallowest
sampled contact (1504.13m bsl) are as follows: Bulk volume 503*106[m3], Pore volume 54*106[rm3]
and HCPVg 42*106[rm3]. Bulk volume for the deepest sampled contact (1513.61m bsl) was
calculated at 651*106[m3], with Pore volume 72*106[rm3] and HCPVg 53*106[rm3].
The results clearly show that even a slight change in depth of gas/water contact can significantly
affect Bulk volume and gas volume (HCPVg) associated with it. Difference between extreme
variations and deterministic gas/water contact in the Wilkw-Szlichtyngowa gas field can be even 45*106[rm3] of Gas Hydrocarbons Per Volume which is +/- 9% of gas contribution in this gas field.
This shows the necessity of precise mapping of gas field contacts.

73rd EAGE Conference & Exhibition incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2011

Vienna, Austria, 23-26 May 2011

Figure 1 The 3D base case model of the Wilkw-Szlichtyngowa gas field with shown basic
parameters. A-Bulk volume, B-Pore volume, C-HCPVg.
Acknowledgements
The Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environment Protection, AGH University of Science and
Technology, is deeply grateful for making it possible to use the software from Schlumberger, which
has been delivered within the framework of the University Grant Program.
References
Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.; and Campbell, J.E. [1981] An approach to sensitivity analysis of computer
models, Part 1. Introduction, input variable selection and preliminary variable assessment. Journal of
Quality Technology 13 (3), 174183.
Karnkowski P., [1999] Oil and gas deposits in Poland.
Metropolis, N.; Ulam, S. (1949). "The Monte Carlo Method". Journal of the American Statistical
Association 44 (247), 335341.

73rd EAGE Conference & Exhibition incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2011

Vienna, Austria, 23-26 May 2011