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RESEARCH-ON-RESEARCH
OVERVIEW: As part of its 75th anniversary celebration, IRI commissioned the IRI2038 initiative, a strategic foresights project asking how events, developments, and emerging trends might shape the art and science of research and technology
management over the next 25 years. A key deliverable of this 18-month project is the four provocative yet plausible scenarios presented here. The scenarios are presented and analyzed individually and collectively in terms of their values, conflicts, and impacts on R&D project, portfolio, people, and organizational management processes.
KEYWORDS: Scenarios, Foresight, Product development, Research-on-research
In 2013, as part of its 75th anniversary celebration, the Industrial Research Institute (IRI) commissioned a project to consider the shape of R&D in IRIs 100th year. IRI2038 explored
how trends emerging today might affect the art and science of
research and technology management into the future.
Strategic foresight projects such as IRI2038 are not about
predicting the future. Rather, they are about creating provocative, yet plausible views of the future. Examining several
possible futures can help organizations prepare to face the
actual future as it unfolds. The four scenarios that emerged
from the IRI2038 project are widely divergent. Yet, even as
the specific implications of the scenarios vary, some common
themes emerge:
Artificial intelligence (AI) systems will play increasing
roles in both project and portfolio management.
Talent management will be replaced by temporary resource
acquisition as most of the workforce will be freelance.
Ted Farrington is senior director, PepsiCo Advanced Research, working in
the food processing arena. He has worked for several consumer products
companies and been active in IRI for many years, having cosponsored several IRI Research-on-Research initiatives in the area of breakthrough innovation. Ted holds BS and MS degrees in math and physics from Clarkson
University, an MS in chemical engineering from Caltech, and a PhD in chemical engineering from the University of Maine. ted.farrington@pepsico.com
Christian Crews is the principal of AndSpace Consulting; he has many years
of experience in foresight both as a consultant and as the leader of corporate
foresight at Pitney Bowes and other large organizations. He has an MS in
studies of the future from the University of HoustonClear Lake and a BA in
English from the College of William and Mary. He is a founding member of
the Association of Professional Futurists. christian@andspaceconsulting.com
DOI: 10.5437/08956308X5606192
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locations. Many companies migrate to this form of innovation, sequestering R&D workers together with servers walled
off from the outside world. With read-only access to the Internet, these new Skunk Works organizations create products that are transformative and lucrative.
As this form of innovation becomes successful, these
closed communities become an option for young scientists
just embarking on their careers. Almost like joining a sorority, the process of choosing an innovation community
involves finding or creating a physical location where likeminded people live and work together. In addition to working
together to develop new products or win open innovation
challenges, these high-trust, intentional communities share
childcare and other services. Intentional innovation communities become a top choice for women who wish to balance the demands of a professional life in the sciences or
politics with the realities of raising a family.
Scenario Analysis
The Three Roads scenario suggests three new ways innovation will be pursued in the future. All of them are driven by
different approaches to trust and identity. In the Hollywood
model, trust is gained through contracts and personal connections; identity is tied to industry success. In the community of brains, trust is developed by virtue of the network and
identity is subsumed in the network. Innovation tribes build
trust through interactions with a small group of people who
rely on each other for support in work and in life. Individual
identity is constructed from, and subsumed by, the tribe
identity.
These issues of trust and identity shape leadership and decision making. In the Hollywood model, power is decentralized to independent project manager producers, allowing
companies to defray risk by running multiple, rapid projects
unencumbered by organizational inertia. In a community of
brains, network intentionality trumps individual will, as people become nodes in a larger consciousness. For innovation
tribes, decisions are highly democratic and power is derived
from elder status and persuasiveness. Successful innovation
can be found in all three paths, but the scenario poses questions for R&D professionals about how they will react to the
challenges of trust and identity in the future.
Implications for Research and Technology Management
R&D Value Proposition. R&D will deliver value to companies by identifying future customer needs and picking the
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human environments. Some of these projects are about halting the effects of global warming, and others are intended to
build new habitats for people, such as artificial islands.
But technology has also empowered individuals. Against
the power of the city-states are the celebrity scientists, who
can leverage MOOC platforms to reach hundreds of thousands of students and command large fees for their temporary services. Ordinary citizens actively work to limit the
power of the city-states by protecting personal data and behavior as best they can.
This scenario values the exploitation of people, machines,
and the planet for the most efficient outcomes. There is a rising ascendancy of the virtual over the real, but most people
continue to choose to live in cities despite the freedom provided by the death of distance. This urban culture drives a
robust economy unique to each city.
Implications for Research and Technology Management
R&D Value Proposition. R&D becomes the tool for the
megacitys open innovation machine. It provides highly
quantitative, instant research to the city utilizing masses of
people, open innovation frameworks, and public/private
partnerships.
The IRI 2038 Scenarios
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Conclusion
As the future unfolds toward one or several of these scenarios, managers should look to develop the skills and organizational competencies to flourish in that world. Our work
identified some implications that are common across all scenarios; these should receive particular attention in the
near-term:
Artificial intelligence and talent management. As expert systems or artificial intelligences become capable of handling day-to-day project management, a managers time
will be spent cultivating talent and assembling teams
from large, external networks.
Open innovation and intellectual property. Projects will become far more open, with companies relying on speed
to market rather than intellectual property protection
to create value. Managers will need to balance the benefits of connectivity and information sharing against
the advantages of trade secrets. Striking that balance
will be especially challenging for business-to-business
innovation. Often, the intellectual property that remains protected will be in how things are made, not
what things are made.
Needs identification and speed to market. R&Ds value will lie
in the ability to quickly identify opportunities for research and technology to serve new customer needs.
This means developing skills in customer research, ethnography, technology scouting, and rapid prototyping.
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