The Murky Underworld of Iot: How 3Gpp-Based Solutions Pave The Way To A Connected World

Redefining Research
January
No. 21
31,2016
2012,Vol.
Vol.11,
8 No.
January29,
EXPLORING THE WORLD OF WIRELESS
THE MURKY UNDERWORLD OF IoT

HOW 3GPP-BASED SOLUTIONS PAVE THE
WAY TO A CONNECTED WORLD
SPECIAL PREVIEW EDITION
J
YOUR
ATTENTION
PLEASE
This document contains information about a separately published 31 page report on the 3GPP-based cellular IoT (CIoT) initiatives, including NB-IoT, EC-GSM, as well as the initial wave of new device categories (Cat 0, Cat M1), which pave the way for
the technologies that follow. This report is based on operator and vendor interviews, our analysis of 3GPP documentation,
and our participation in the standardization process. In addition to the Executive Summary, we include the Table of Contents,
a summary of past topics that we have covered, and a list of likely topics that well be pursuing in the coming months.
This report is included as part of a subscription to Signals Ahead subscription information appears on the last page. You
can also purchase this report for $975 and then apply the full purchase price toward a subscription if you decide to upgrade
the purchase to a full subscription.
1.0 Executive Summary

If you are attending MWC and you would like to schedule a meeting, please drop us a
line. Well be there the entire week and then some.
In many respects, the catchphrase known as The Internet of Things (IoT) is about as useful and
meaningful as the term 4G. Both definitions are so broad and all encompassing, not to mention
unregulated, that using the term without providing any clarifications regarding what is actually
being discussed makes it pretty much meaningless. 4G is used to describe networks that offer peak
speeds that range from just over 1 Mbps to 600 Mbps today and reaching 1 Gbps by the end of
the year three orders of magnitude while the latency range is at least an order of magnitude.
Similarly, the bucket of IoT technologies, use cases, and deployment scenarios both near-term
and futuristic are so broad that it would take several rounds of questions to really understand what
someone is referring to when they mention the IoT acronym.
For purposes of this Signals Ahead report, well focus primarily on the work being done within
3GPP to define a broad range of technologies and specifications all under the auspices of being
pre-5G to address the technical challenges introduced by the concept, which dates back to 2G
technologies. We can divide these activities into two broad categories. First, there are the efforts
associated with making it more cost effective to deploy and maintain a large number of connected
machine-type devices in an LTE network that generate very modest revenues for the operators. We
are referring to the Category (Cat) 1 and Cat 0 device classes as well as the more recent Cat M device
category now referred to as Cat M1. Of perhaps more interest and with a fair amount of intrigue,
there is what is euphemistically referred to as NB-IoT (or Cat M2), a term that 3GPP agreed to use
back in September 2015, even though much of the technical details regarding its implementation
are still being determined. Lastly, there is EC-GSM (Extended Coverage GSM), which is the
only original CIoT solution that remains largely unchanged from when it was first proposed in 2014.
Throughout this paper, well use the term CIoT (Cellular IoT) to refer collectively to the 3GPP
solutions that are targeting IoT applications.
By all accounts the market opportunity for IoT is massive, but the potential long-term opportunity
frequently results in a basic misunderstanding of what CIoT is all about. The ability to scale a
network to support millions of IoT connections sounds impressive on paper, but in the real-world
the ability to reach this target is pretty much meaningless, in particular given that other CIoT
capabilities, especially those pertaining to NB-IoT, are far more important when it comes to the
operators business case. In fact, we would rank capacity (# of connections, volume of data and
control plane traffic) dead last in the list of operator priorities.
In order to understand the current market opportunities for CIoT, well start with a brief history
lesson which documents the important actions that have taken place within 3GPP over the last
fourteen months. Well then examine CIoT in more detail with a particular focus on their likely
performance characteristics, including latency, coverage, complexity, battery life, and capacity, based
on various traffic models. Among other things, well share insights which point to the strengths and
shortcomings of the CIoT solutions as well as provide context for some of the performance claims.
For example, achieving a ten-year battery life with NB-IoT or EC-GSM is entirely possible but it
depends on the traffic profile along with a huge tradeoff in performance (i.e., latency). Likewise,
while some of the initial CIoT solutions help lower the RF and baseband complexity, there is a big
tradeoff when it comes to performance (i.e., coverage), suggesting that operators will need to weigh
the pros and cons of these solutions before reaching their decisions.
For purposes of this Signals

Ahead report, well focus
primarily on the work being
done within 3GPP to define a
broad range of technologies
and specifications.
The ability to scale a

network to support millions
of IoT connections sounds
impressive on paper, but in
the real-world the ability
to reach this target is
pretty much meaningless.
Achieving a ten-year battery
life is entirely possible but it
depends on the traffic profile
along with a huge tradeoff in
performance (i.e., latency).
January 29, 2016 | Signals Ahead, Vol. 12, Number 1 PREVIEW
We also examine the current status of NB-IoT, which represents the convergence of two
earlier proposals, namely NB-CIoT and NB-LTE. Last September the press reported that
3GPP had reached consensus and that NB-IoT was the go-forward solution. Unfortunately, the
press didnt mention that there were still a number of loose ends and options that hadnt been
resolved. Since that time, some of these issues have been resolved while other critical issues
remain. The outcome of the ongoing discussions, including some that are taking place this week,
is critical since optional features or the exclusion of a critical feature done in the interest of
time could negatively impact performance and/or result in market fragmentation. If nothing
else, it is almost inevitable that the current NB-IoT effort will extend beyond the completion
date for Release 13.
Lastly, well provide our thoughts on the direction we see the industry headed and some of the
actions that are required to upgrade an existing radio access and core network to support CIoT.
This discussion will include the roles of the various IoT technologies, including proprietary and
complementary technologies, likely Release 14 enhancements, the choice between one of the
three deployment scenarios (standalone, in-band, and guard band), and the eventual migration
to the Release 15 and Release 16 implementations (aka 5G). All this and more in this issue
of Signals Ahead.
The ongoing discussions in

3GPP on NB-IoT are critical
when it comes to preventing
market fragmentation
and/or excluding critical
features which measurably
improve performance.
EXPLORE THE
5G
WORLD OF
WIRELESS
FOLLOW THE 5G STANDARDIZATION EFFORT AS IT HAPPENS

Redefining Research
December22,
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Vol.
No.
December
2015
Vol.31,11,
11,2012,
No.10
11
PREVIEW
January
Vol.
8 No. 2
Redefining Research
LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD TO 5.5G1
ALL QUIET ON THE 5G FRONT

AN UPDATE ON THE 5G STANDARDIZATION EFFORTS
Feel free to note the sarcasm

A
MORE
5G
MORE5G
5G
MORE
GET SMART[ER]
UNDERSTANDING THE INS AND OUTS OF THE 5G USE CASES
O
New subscribers to SIGNALS AHEAD will receive these

5G-related back issues FOR FREE with a paid subscription.
5
December
2015
Vol.
11,8No
January8,31,
2012,
Vol.
No
EXPLORING
THE
WORLD
OF
WIRELE
EXPLORING
THE
WORLD
OF
WIREL
EXPLORING
THE
WORLD
OF
WIRELE
EXPLORING
THE
WORLD
OF
WIRELES
UPDATES ON THE 3GPP 5G STANDARDIZATION EFFORTS
AND OTHER 3GPP-RELATED ACTIVITIES

F
Redefining Research
December
2015
Vol.
11,88No.
January
January8,31,
31,
2012,
2012,
Vol.
Vol.
No.
No.10
22
Redefining Research
September
No.
January30,
31,2015
2012,Vol.
Vol.11,
No.282
January
31,
2012,
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88No.
...with more
to come!
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Contents
1.0 Executive Summary 3
2.0 CIoT History 101 The Readers Digest Edition 7
3.0 IoT Objectives and Implementation Strategies 9
3.1 Cellular IoT Enabling Technologies 11
3.1.1 Lower Category Devices 11
3.1.2 EC-GSM 13
3.1.3 Clean Slate 14
3.1.3.1 NB-CIoT 14
3.1.3.2 NB-LTE15
3.2.1 NB-IoT = NB-CIoT + NB-LTE 17

3.2.2 Performance Analysis 17
3.3 Core Network Implications23
3.4 Complementary Technologies 25
4.0 Where It Is All Headed26
4.1 Cat 0, Cat 1, and Cat M1 26
4.2 EC-GSM 26
4.3 NB-IoT 26
4.4 Next-Generation Network Technologies 28
5.0 Final Thoughts29
Index of Figures & Tables

Table 1. CIoT Traffic Type and Estimated Payload and Periodicity10
Figure 1. Ratio of RF and Baseband Costs and RF-Related Costs for a Cat 1 Modem 11
Figure 2. Modem Cost Reductions Due to a 1.4 MHz Channel Bandwidth 12
Figure 3. Consolidated Cost and Performance Impacts of Various Optimization Strategies 13
Table 2. Estimated NB-IoT Throughput and Connections per cell sector 19
Table 3. Estimated NB-IoT Battery Life with Various Traffic Profiles and RF Conditions 20
Table 4. Estimated Latency for Uplink Extension Reports 21
Table 5. Estimated Edge of Coverage NB-IoT Data Rates 21
Table 6. Estimated NB-IoT Capacity number of NB-IoT devices per cell sector 21
Table 7. Ericsson Estimated NB-IoT Capacity number of NB-IoT devices per cell sector 22
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January
29, 2016 | Signals Ahead, Vol. 12, Number 1 PREVIEW
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT: SIGNALS AHEAD BACK ISSUES

12/21/2015 ALL QUIET ON THE 5G FRONT an update
on the 5G standardization efforts and other
3GPP-related activities Just recently we returned
from the 3GPP RAN#70 Plenary, which was held it Sitges,
Spain. Conventional wisdom suggests that the 5G standard
is baked and resting on a hot plate, given all of the operator
claims about forthcoming trials, not to mention commercial
launches and anticipated vendor demos at MWC 2016. The
reality, we believe, is entirely different with much work to
remain starting with RAN Plenary Group Study Items on
the next-generation wireless network that have yet to begin.
Topics Discussed in this Report Include the Following: 1) We
take a look at where the 3GPP RAN and SA working groups
are with respect to standardizing the next-generation network
(aka 5G).2) We examine the current and yet-to-be approved
Study Items to provide an extremely preliminary view of what
is in store. Unlike earlier technical requirements (TR) documents, the 5G TR is shaping up to be entirely different. 3)
Speaking of TRs, we take a trip down memory lane and revisit
the initial TR documents for UMTS (3G) and LTE (Evolved
UTRAN) to see if the proposed requirements were achieved,
and, if so, when they were achieved. 4) Given the equal focus
being given to LTE and its evolution (LTE-Advanced Pro), we
highlight and discuss many of the Work Items being considered within the RAN Plenary. If nothing else these Work
Items provide great insight into near-term and future operator
strategies.
12/8/15 Get SMART[er] - the ins and outs of
the 5G Use Cases Unlike what occurred during the
previous introductions of a new family of technologies, 3GPP
has leveraged the work of the NGMN Alliance and other entities to define the Use Cases for 5G. Although the Use Cases
are still in a state of flux, there is at least some initial insight to
be gained regarding what is driving the 5G requirements and
how the Use Cases will change the very nature of the industry.
Highlights of the Study include the following: (1) We break
out the 72 Use Cases into several distinct categories, based on
their requirements, and discuss the scenarios they address as
well as their subsequent requirements. (2) Although eMBB
(enhanced Mobile Broadband) gets all the buzz, the overwhelming majority of the Use Cases have very little to do with
mobile broadband. Instead, their requirements include capabilities that we believe are more challenging than delivering a
high bit rate, or the Use Case is extremely futuristic in terms of
what 5G may be asked to do in the future. (3) To us, Network
Slicing is by far the most interesting Use Case. In addition to
giving more power to third parties to specify and implement
how the network will support their needs, Network Slicing
introduces an entirely new paradigm, as well as creating the
need for new business models / billing strategies that operators
will need to pursue (if net neutrality doesnt get in the way). (4)
5G could result in a bit of a land grab for the cellular industry.
If nothing else, they will need to work more closely with other
standards bodies and vertical markets who seek to benefit
from the capabilities that 5G is supposed to deliver. Given the

timing of the 5G core network relative to the 5G radio access
network, it will be well into 2020 before the full vision of 5G
is realized.
10/29/15 When Iconic Meets Anechoic, Part II Over-the-Air (OTA) MIMO Performance Results
of Fifteen Smartphones - From Apple to ZTE In our
20th Chips and Salsa, we collaborated closely with Spirent
Communications, PCTEST, and EMT Labs, to conduct
arguably the industrys most extensive independent OTA
MIMO performance testing of leading smartphones - from
the Apple iPhone to the ZTE Nubia. All testing took place
within an ETS-Lindgren anechoic chamber. In total, we
tested 15 different smartphones (3 bands per phone) that we
procured from around the world, including LTE chipsets from
4 different baseband suppliers. Highlights of the study include
the following: (1) Two of the top performing smartphones, the
Nokia Lumia 930 and the Alcatel OneTouch Idol 3 are valuepriced smartphones, indicating a disparity between price and
performance. (2) In general there was a large variance in the
results with the top performing smartphone in a particular
band outperforming most of its peers by 50% or more with
moderate SNR values. (3) Emphasis needs to be placed on
validating the RF antenna design - although the selection of
the chipset supplier is important, it is only the starting point
when it comes to achieving excellent RF performance. (4) To
varying degrees, all smartphones performed poorly in at least
one frequency band - two smartphones performed poorly in all
three frequency bands that we tested.
9/30/15 Looking Further Ahead to 5.5G - Updates
on the 3GPP 5G Standardization Efforts We
recently attended the 3GPP RAN workshop on 5G in
Phoenix, AZ. The two-day event brought together several
hundred individuals from around the world who shared their
companies visions for 5G, or what should probably be called
IMT-2020. In what could become a continuing series of
reports over the next several years, we offer our initial take
regarding the what, where, how, and why of whatever follows
LTE-Advanced (Release 13). Anyone that claims today to
know the details surrounding 5G is either a clairvoyant, a liar,
or a little bit of both. The truth is that while there are a number
of generally accepted principles regarding the requirements of
5G no one knows for certain when those requirements will be
implemented (Phase 1 or Phase 2), or the detailed technical
specifications regarding how they will be implemented. At the
moment there are enough flavors of OFDM being discussed
to choke a horse so until general consensus is reached we have
no intent on familiarizing ourselves with something that will
eventually fall by the wayside. In this issue of Signals Ahead,
we discuss the 5G Use Cases, the similarities between the 5G
standardization process and what happened with LTE, some
of the technical features being proposed for 5G, and the risks
that we see for the 5G standardization effort.
ON THE HORIZON: POTENTIAL SIGNALS AHEAD/SIGNALS FLASH! TOPICS

We have identified a list of pending research topics that we are currently considering or presently working on completing.
The topics at the top of the list are definitive with many of them already in the works. The topics toward the bottom of
the page are a bit more speculative. Obviously, this list is subject to change based on various factors and market trends. As
always, we welcome suggestions from our readers.
10
LTE and the Connected Car
The Core Network evolution
LTE Broadcast versus LTE unicast video benchmark study
VoLTE Part Five multi-vendor, multi-operator benchmark study to include feature sets, call quality, reliability, performance and scheduling
VoLTE Part Six lab-based testing of VoLTE clients and VoWi-Fi
Chips and Salsa OTA smartphone performance benchmark study Transmission Mode 2
Multi-vendor HetNet benchmark study
Network impacts (to include signaling) of using various smartphone OS platforms and/or applications (video, VoLTE,
social networking, etc.)
VoLTE Part Seven IR.94 and RCS
Mobile Computing platforms and the impact of data caching at the cell edge
Cloud RAN
Uplink CoMP network benchmark study
4x4 MIMO network benchmark study
LTE FDD and LTE TDD Carrier Aggregation network benchmark study
Chips and Salsa LTE TDD chipset benchmark study
MU-MIMO
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Redefining Research

EXPLORING THE WORLD OF WIRELESS