Commentary: The new normal of Singapores relations with China

The death of Mr Lee Kuan Yew, a muscular China and the South China Sea
dispute are pushing Sino-Singapore ties into a new chapter
SINGAPORE: Up till about a year ago, relations between Singapore and China could
loosely be grouped into two eras: Mao and post-Mao. In the first, which ran from the
founding of Peoples Republic in 1949 to 1978, ties between the pair of new nations were
mostly cold.
Beijing, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, wanted to increase the loyalty of overseas
Chinese to China and did not recognise the existence of an independent Singapore up to
1970. Singapore feared Chinas influence and support for pro-communist elements in its
country. It didnt help that its young prime minister Lee Kuan Yew was attacked by
Chinese state propaganda as a running dog of US and British imperialism.
In 1978, the second era began. Two years after the death of Mao, new Chinese
paramount leader Deng Xiaoping visited Singapore and met Mr Lee.
It paved the way for the end of the previously frosty and detached period, kicking off a
fresh age when Singapore was viewed not only as a friend, but also as an early role
model in Chinas reform and opening up.
Despite occasional hiccups, ties grew stronger, trade spiked and exchanges intensified,
culminating in the celebration of 25 years of diplomatic relations last year (2015).
The words of Singapore President Tony Tan Keng Yam to mark the occasion summed up
this golden era: Our pioneer leaders, particularly Mr Lee Kuan Yew and Mr Deng
Xiaoping, laid a strong foundation for the bilateral relationship in the 1970s. Over a short
span of 25 years, our relations have flourished and the friendship between our two
peoples has never been stronger.
That era is over.
A new normal in Sino-Singapore ties is beginning, characterised by a more pushy China,
less wiggle room for Singapore and increased frequency in disputes large and small.
Three factors account for this transition.
PASSING OF A STRONG MAN
First, the death of Mr Lee last year. As indicated by Dr Tan, the late leader was more than
just a participant in Sino-Singapore relations. He was a builder.
His friendship with Deng and later Mr Jiang Zemin, and his keen role as an honest broker
in cross-strait relations earned him an exalted status in the eyes of the current Chinese
leaders.
In May 2011, then Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping pressed on with a scheduled meeting
with Mr Lee, despite the Singapore senior statesman stepping down from Cabinet four
days earlier and not holding an official title. The signal was clear: Mr Lee held a special
place in Beijings eyes.
Indeed, when Mr Lee died, Chinese state media gave extensive coverage rarely seen for
foreign leaders, especially those from non-communist states.

Unfortunately, such a unique status is not transferable. Some of the goodwill stored by
him for over four decades, across five generations of Chinese leaders, is following him to
the grave.
END OF PEACEFUL RISE
Second, Sino-Singapore ties cannot escape the megatrend of an increasingly powerful
and assertive China.
In the wake of the Beijing Olympics and global financial crisis in 2008, a more muscular
China has chosen to flex its strength more frequently and openly. While Beijings postMao diplomacy was governed by Dengs stated preference to hide capabilities or
taoguang yanghui, that philosophy has been suspended.
The rise of Mr Xi after 2012, and his platform of a China Dream restoring the country to
the pantheon of global powers, made it clear that Beijing was no longer content to play
by others rules. Its desire to contest the United States narrative and dominance,
especially in Asia, has significantly reduced the space and options of smaller players.
Nations like Singapore now have to grapple with the interests of two giants, unlike the
simpler post-Cold War days when Beijing was largely content for Washington to set the
agenda.
Like it or not, in the new normal, Sino-Singapore relations will need to withstand the
stress and pressure of being caught between a superpower and an aspiring one. The
Thucydides Trap often ensnarls many smaller players.
CHOPPY WATERS IN THE BACKYARD
Third, Beijing and Singapore now have a glaring and thorny issue to tussle with the
South China Sea.
China lays claim to almost all of the sea and although Singapore is not a claimant state,
its strong push for freedom of navigation in the waters has created much friction with
Beijing.
The recent spat between the Singapore government and Global Times is merely the
latest in an ongoing dispute which has shaken bilateral relations.
And the problem is unlikely to go away any time soon. The South China Sea is as much
Chinas backyard as it is Singapores.
ASEANs unavoidable role in the issue further locks Singapore into this quarrel with
Beijing. After all, membership in the 10-nation bloc is a central feature of Singapores
foreign policy.
THE NEW NORMAL
Taken together, the post-Lee era of Sino-Singapore relations promises to be more volatile
than the preceding period.
Of course, it will not be totally bleak. It was only a month ago when Mr Xi told Singapore
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hangzhou, that
Sino-Singapore ties had always been a step ahead of Chinas ties with other ASEAN
countries.

And it was only a year since the two countries inked a deal to develop a third project in
China together.
But there is no running away from a Beijing which is more prickly and confrontational.
It will challenge Singapores long-held strategy of making friends with all, and demands
on the island nation to choose sides could be on the horizon.
In this new normal, nothing will be easy.