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4 authors, including:
Naeem Akram
Yasin Janjua
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SEE PROFILE
INTRODUCTION
Pakistan, has faced serious challenges in the last four
years, starting from 2006, in meeting many of the MDG
targets, stemming from a sudden meltdown of the global
economy in 2008, along with a sharp rise in oil and food
prices earlier in that year. On the internal front Pakistan
faced additional challenges with respect to internal
security, political stability and economic stabilization in
the wake of external shocks1. Both external and internal
factors have contributed to socio-economic vulnerability
during the last four years (2006-2010). Even, prior to
2006, in October 2005, the North-Western part of the
country was hit by a devastating earthquake, leaving
70,000 dead and over a million homeless, along with the
wholesale destruction of social, economic and community
infrastructure, which includes schools, hospitals, roads,
bridges and other infrastructure. All of the above
mentioned difficulties have adversely affectted progress
towards the achievement of MDG targets.
The rise in militancy in 2008 and 2009 has had a
severe adverse effect on the Governments capacity to
concentrate on social and economic progress due to
diversion of substantial financial and administrative
resources towards ongoing fight against militants. The
action against militants led to an exodus of local
population from troubled areas resulting in a large number
Corresponding Author: Abdul Hamid, CPRSPD, a Joint Project of UNDP and Government of Pakistan
118
300
10
9
7
10
8
6
2
KPK
Punjab
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
Agriculture
8.0
200
6.0
150
4.0
100
2.0
50
2009-10
0
19
9
19 1- 92
9
19 2 -9 3
9 31 9 94
9
1 994 -9 5
19 5- 96
9
19 6- 97
97
19 - 9 8
9
1 9 8 -9 9
9
2009 -0 0
2 00 0 -0 1
1
20 - 02
0
20 2 -0 3
03
2 00 - 04
2 004 -0 5
5
20 - 06
0 620 07
0
20 7- 0 8
08
20 -0 9
09
- 10
2008-09
2007-08
2006-07
2005-06
2004-05
2003-04
-4.0
2002-03
-2.0
2001-02
0.0
2000-01
Growth rate
GDP
250
Gilgit and
Baltistan
300
250
CPI
Food
19
9
19 1-92
9
19 2-9 3
9
19 3-94
9
1 994 -9 5
19 5-96
9
19 6-97
97
19 -98
9
19 8 -9 9
9
2009 -0 0
200 0 -0 1
1
20 -02
0
20 2-0 3
03
2 0 - 04
0
2 0 4 -0 5
05
20 -06
0
20 6-07
07
20 -08
0
20 8 -0 9
09 10
Energy
Transport
Years
119
Inflation
20
15
10
Rates of inflation
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
9
2 00
8-0
20
09
-10
8
20 0
7-0
5- 0
6
20
0
20
0607
0
20
04
-05
Growth rates
GDP growth
5.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
- 02
2 -0
3
20
03 04
2 00
4-0
5
20 0
5- 0
6
20
06
-0 7
20
0 708
2 00
8 -0
9
2 00
9- 1
0
01
2 00
20
2 00
0 -0
0.0
3.0
Estimated
5,140.9
15,762.5
718.3
1,646.2
65.8
16,944.5
3,618.3
4,115.5
152.9
170.6
1,000.0
82.3
783.0
82.3
50,283.1
Development expenditure
6.0
PSDP
2010-11
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
20
00 01
200
1- 0
2
20
02 03
20
0304
2 00
4- 0
5
20
0506
20
06
-07
20
0 708
2 00
8-0
9
20
0 910
0.0
Cattle head
55,501
52,750
3,572
263,703
288
4,669
324,982
(a)
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Injuries
Deaths
(b)
(c)
MDGs status:
Pre flood scenario: The pre-economic shock picture did
not present a drastically gloomy picture. Until 2006,
Pakistan had been performing well towards MDGs
(CPRSPD, 2010). In post 2006 scenario, progress on
many indicators reversed. A brief summary of the preflood MDG scenario is presented in Table 3.
Pakistan is on track in 2, ahead in 6 and lagging
behind in 20 out of 33 MDGs indicators while registering
slow progress in only 4 indicators; performance in only
one indicator is considered off track.
829184
Rs in millions
800000
700000
59.5
600000
500000
400000
63.8
63.7
57.1
39.8
300000
200000
100000
0
37.7
50283.1
Estimated flood
damages
1998
55.5
49.5
2009
2005
47.9
41.0
70.3 68.3
30.1
32.7
37.1 40.4
1998
2005
41.1
48.1
2009
1998
2009
2005
0.75
65.1
57.5
34.0
27.6
1998
2005
2009
moderately flood affected districts is presented in Fig. 913 indicating pre flood progress towards MDGs.
Almost all districts, presently affected by floods, had
been performing well as far as Net Enrollment Ratio
(NER) and Gender Parity Index (GPI) at primary level is
concerned; however, in comparative terms districts which
are now severely affected were lagging behind the
districts which are now moderately affected by floods.
Therefore, severely affected districts have become even
more vulnerable.
2005
2009
Actual
Target
100
100
46
52
53
56
55
57
20
08
-09
60
7-0
8
80
42
40
20
200
200
6-0
7
200
5-0
6
200
4-0
5
20
0102
19
90
-91
0
MDF
Target
2009-10
Lag Lag Lag
Actual
Target
30
26
25
Actual
Target
600
533
500
20
16
15
400
400
12
12
11
10
10
10
380
350
276
300
<10
200
140
5
100
MDF
Target
80
Actual
Target
70
50
30
30
30
20
25
20
10
25
08
8-0
9
200
20
0 7-
6-0
7
20
0
0506
20
20
040
2
01
-0
20
0-9
0
199
- 09
8
7- 0
08
20
7
2 00
6- 0
20 0
5
4- 0
5- 0
20 0
01 -
20 0
75
30
MDF
Target
60
40
20
90
19
02
0
-9 1
- 09
20
08
7
6- 0
7-0
8
200
20 0
5-0
6
4-0
5
20 0
20 0
20
19
90
-9 1
01 02
MDF
Target
GPI NER
------------------------1998 2005 2009
District
Punjab
Bakhar
37.1
51
61.0
0.71
0.7
1.0
63.1
D.G.Khan
23.7
50
52.0
0.64
0.9
0.7
66
Layyah
37.7
54
68.0
0.74
0.8
0.9
43.6
Mianwali
49.4
64
68.0
0.76
0.84 0.7
63.9
Muzaffar Garh
27.5
39
48.0
0.64
0.7
0.7
68.4
Rahim Yar Khan
31.9
42
49.0
0.79
0.83 0.8
56.4
Rajanpur
25
50
42.0
0.6
0.8
0.7
62.9
Jhang
45.9
63
63.0
0.68
0.84 0.9
74.3
Khushab
46.6
65
73.0
0.72
0.82 0.9
75.7
Multan
43.3
49
63.0
0.74
0.92 1.0
63.9
Sargodha
53.2
59
76.0
0.86
1
1.0
78.3
KP
Charsada
18.6
41
54.0
0.57
0.65 0.8
71.89
Dera Ismail Khan 20.9
35
38.0
0.58
0.69 0.7
55
Kohistan
4.5
27
38.0
0.22
0.25 0.2
48
Lower Dir
15.7
39
51.0
0.59
0.79 0.8
76.3
Nowshera
30.6
48
66.0
0.63
0.73 0.8
74.6
Peshawar
41.8
45
59.0
0.79
0.84 0.7
82.6
Shangla
11.4
27
41.0
0.29
0.47 0.7
25.3
Swat
19.3
41
39.0
0.67
0.77 0.8
75.8
Tank
16.8
35
40.0
0.36
0.49 0.5
49.8
Upper Dir
14.6
34
48.0
0.46
0.53 0.9
63.7
Abbottabad
48.9
70
82.0
0.88
1
1.0
79.2
Bannu
20.9
49
54.0
0.37
0.6
0.7
67.3
Battagram
12.2
45
65.0
0.43
0.71 0.9
49.6
Bonair
16.4
38
62.0
0.45
0.65 0.7
65.9
Chitral
41.7
55
61.0
0.8
0.75 1.0
87.5
Hangu
19.9
42
81.0
0.9
0.91 0.9
73.8
Karak
27
62
61.0
0.67
0.71 0.8
74
Kohat
32.8
48
62.0
0.63
0.64 0.7
60.8
Lakki Marwat
24.9
50
52.0
0.32
0.59 0.5
67.6
Mansehra
35.5
64
70.0
0.78
1
0.9
70.5
Mardan
28.6
55
58.0
0.63
0.86 0.8
79.4
Swabi
25.9
52
63.0
0.62
0.97 0.8
71.7
Sindh
Dadu
32.2
40
53.0
0.73
0.78 1.0
55.4
Ghotki
24.4
50
45.0
0.68
0.75 0.6
51.8
Jacobabad
21.8
25
36.0
0.64
0.47 0.6
58.8
Jamshoro
N/A
35.0
N/A
N/A 0.8
N/A
Kasmore
N/A
52.0
N/A
N/A 0.7
N/A
Larkana
28.5
42
45.0
0.74
0.63 0.7
69.8
Shadad kot
N/A
39.0
N/A
N/A 0.6
N/A
Shikarpur
18.2
52
50.0
0.72
0.86 0.9
55.7
Thatta
16.3
33
39.0
0.62
0.71 0.5
51.9
Hyderabad
35.9
45
61.0
0.76
0.76 0.9
63.1
Khairpur
33.5
44
51.0
0.73
0.71 0.8
59.2
Matiari
N/A
49.0
N/A
N/A 0.8
N/A
Nowshero Feroz
29.9
54
50.0
0.72
0.84 0.8
54.5
S.Benaziar Abad * 38.4
41
59.0
0.67
0.65 0.8
65
Sukkur
36.2
55
49.0
0.75
0.86 0.8
59.9
Tandu Allah Yar
N/A
48.0
N/A
N/A 0.8
N/A
Tandu Muhd Khan N/A
39.0
N/A
N/A 0.6
N/A
Balochistan
Jafarabad
17.7
41
46.0
0.58
0.53 0.64
7.23
Nasirabad
7.4
21
38.0
0.41
0.5
0.5
49.4
Barkhan
16.4
37
33.0
0.5
0.61 0.4
59.6
Harnai
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
N/A
Jhal Magsi
3.7
23
31.0
0.33
0.57 0.6
29.6
Kech
38.7
63
54.0
0.82
0.85 0.8
68.9
Kohlu
N/A
11.0
N/A
N/A 0.2
N/A
Loralai
20.3
40
51.0
0.54
0.47 0.5
58.7
Musa Khel
10.3
34
23.0
0.72
0.26 0.3
37.9
Qilla Saifullah
21.7
26
45.0
0.55
0.69 0.4
39.3
Sherani
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A N/A
N/A
Italic: Severly affected districts; Non-italic: Moderately affected districts
126
Sanitation
-----------------------1998 2005 2009
12
30
17
7
33
24
32
25
3
23
21
78.3
34.0
82.1
28.4
19.0
23.5
52.8
41.4
55.8
43.7
55.5
98.5
82.5
99.3
85.1
98.9
92.4
80.4
96.9
84.4
97.9
98.5
99.7
86.2
99.8
89
99.3
99.4
91
98.3
98.7
98.7
98.5
3.9
22.3
11.8
43.5
7.2
9.8
7.9
7.4
35.7
13.5
33.8
22
25
22.5
32.2
18.9
32.2
20.9
23.1
24.8
50
34.6
77.7
62.3
53.9
75
39.5
57.3
58.3
50.5
52.6
72.1
71.7
19.2
40.2
44.6
71.2
47.1
58.9
18.7
45.3
67.0
67.6
87.7
0.1
77.5
48.2
84.8
85.3
81.3
54.8
90.8
65
86
92.6
74.8
80
56.3
100
87.3
66.6
59.2
55.9
80
85.5
88.3
44.7
35.6
15.1
64.4
62.5
64.9
20.0
60.9
37.4
57.5
56.3
42.0
31.3
63.2
67.5
39.0
30.7
47.5
19.5
47.7
55.5
53.4
33.4
70.4
14
51.7
58.2
66.3
27.2
36
41.7
45.2
64
72.8
47.7
49.4
45
66.1
34.2
53.4
35.6
56.5
47.9
33.8
51.9
87.8
28.9
58.6
82.8
84.5
19.5
59
69.6
38.6
76.9
93.6
48.9
57.1
49.1
78
50.4
74
51.4
60.5
73
59.7
21.5
30.5
8.3
54.3
53.6
63.2
35.8
83.9
59.3
59.6
74.4
81.5
77.0
57.6
52.3
76.3
38.7
51.6
40.0
50.2
20.1
22.1
59.2
41.9
17.6
24.7
57.9
73.2
13.6
36.3
44.9
15
34.3
54
15.3
28.2
38.5
46.7
21
46.6
51.4
20.8
62.1
45.3
99.3
74.2
11.7
84.1
94.2
93
69.9
64.7
70.2
48
77.7
74.2
42.1
83.2
77.3
74.9
48.2
99.1
72.2
50.6
98.1
82.9
59.1
35.5
18.3
4.1
84.4
90.0
48.0
53.8
28.1
16.6
77.7
45.7
61.3
46.4
31.0
78.2
34.0
60.7
38.2
63.9
57.0
57.3
78.4
78.1
35.2
N/A
N/A
82.1
N/A
82.9
63.7
87.9
61.7
N/A
87.6
51.5
75.3
N/A
N/A
56.6
24.0
2.9
25.0
5.3
80.0
66.3
22.2
34.2
39.9
24.5
6.7
18.3
51.6
32.9
8.3
15.0
68.9
96.8
97.1
N/A
N/A
89.6
N/A
98.2
40.3
89.6
94.2
N/A
94.9
94.5
93.1
N/A
N/A
73.7
99.6
93
N/A
N/A
93.1
N/A
99.7
64
99
98.3
N/A
99
98.9
98.1
N/A
N/A
22.6
11.9
23.8
35.6
4.6
12.3
19.3
3.8
22.9
71.1
8.5
23.2
11.9
10.5
30.3
17.8
13.1
67.2
26.7
35.6
N/A
N/A
73.3
N/A
57.6
52
71.4
52
N/A
71
50.8
58.4
N/A
N/A
94.1
86
76.4
N/A
N/A
97.6
N/A
81.1
63.9
88.8
72.1
N/A
96
98.3
82.5
N/A
N/A
38.8
45.2
36.5
32.3
30.0
76.8
50.4
58.7
16.7
86.9
38.9
50.7
41.6
76.2
54.8
51.8
31.9
2.5
55
44.8
N/A
67.9
65
N/A
65.4
48.3
37.9
N/A
7.13
9.41
26.8
N/A
26.5
15.8
28.2
55.6
26.1
27.6
N/A
5.9
9.8
15.9
N/A
13
30
N/A
31
11.6
26.4
N/A
60.2
43.9
39.7
N/A
22
32.4
N/A
40.1
17.3
50.4
N/A
20.3
18.3
0.8
N/A
12.4
48.3
5.0
43.2
0.7
13.1
N/A
30.4
25.8
21.6
N/A
44.2
53.4
N/A
47.9
12.9
20.8
N/A
67.4
57.5
12.2
N/A
28.6
88.7
N/A
61.8
43.2
15.9
N/A
15.5
13.3
45.0
N/A
6.1
20.5
12.4
15.1
14.7
11.0
N/A
GPI NER
------------------------1998 2005 2009
0.61
0.68 0.71
Water supply
-----------------------1998 2005 2009
65.1 74.9 27.6
Sanitation
-------------------------1998 2005 2009
37.1
70.3 41.1
0.64
63.8
57.5
40.4
0.75
0.75
63.7
37.7
68.9
34.0
68.3
48.1
PSLM (2006-07)
----------------------------NER
GPI
55.6
0.86
6.3
0.72
55.2
0.82
61.1
0.93
PSLM (2008-09)
-----------------------------------NER
GPI
57.4
0.88
47.9
0.77
58.2
0.83
62.2
0.95
Literacy
54.9
42.2
51.5
61.2
GPI
0.64
0.41
0.53
0.75
Literacy
57.3
45.6
54.8
62.9
GPI
0.65
0.44
0.54
0.75
67.5
52.4
64.8
74.3
0.75
0.49
0.65
0.87
69.6
55.9
67.3
75.9
0.77
0.54
0.66
0.88
Immunization
76.4
69.1
72.9
81.4
GPI
0.97
0.95
0.96
0.99
Immunization
77.9
69.6
74.7
82.9
GPI
0.99
0.99
1.01
0.98
PSLM
(2004-05)
PSLM
(2006-07)
PSLM
(2008-09)
87.9
83.4
85.6
90.6
87.3
81.3
86.5
89.8
88.3
84.6
87.8
89.9
59.2
46.2
53.6
66.4
64.9
47.8
59.9
73.1
70.9
57.5
66.0
77.7
127
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
REFERENCES
128