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Revenues
Automotive
From Solar City
From Model 3
Services and other
Total revenues
Cost of Revenues
Automotive
Services and other
Total cost of revenues
Gross profit
Operating expenses
Research and development
Selling, general and administrative
Savings from Ec of Scale
Total operating expenses
Gain/Loss from operations
Interest income
Interest expense
Other income (expense), net
Gain/Loss before income taxes
Provision for income taxes/tax expense
Net Profit/loss
Net Profit/loss per share of common stock, basic and diluted
Weighted average shares used in computing net loss per share of
common stock, basic and diluted
2013 - assumption
$
1,921,877
$
$
91,619
2,013,496
77% $
81% $
77% $
$
1,483,321
73,913
1,557,234
456,262
12% $
14% $
231,976
285,569
26%
-3%
0%
-2%
1%
-4%
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
517,545
(61,283)
189
(32,934)
22,602
(71,426)
2,588
(74,014)
(1)
119,421
2014
2014-assumption
2015
2015-assumption
3,007,012
3,740,973
$
$
191,344
3,198,356
$
$
305,052
4,046,025
71% $
89% $
72% $
$
2,145,749
170,936
2,316,685
881,671
0.75 $
0.98 $
0.77 $
$
2,823,302
299,220
3,122,522
923,503
15% $
19% $
464,700
603,660
18% $
23% $
717,900
922,232
33%
-6%
0%
-3%
0%
-9%
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,068,360
(186,689)
1,126
(100,886)
1,813
(284,636)
9,404
(294,040)
(2)
124,539
41%
-18%
0%
-3%
-1%
-22%
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,640,132
(716,629)
1,508
(118,851)
(41,652)
(875,624)
13,039
(888,663)
(7)
128,202
Projections
2016
Assumption
Assumption average
Industry Avg
35%
6,505,370
35%
35%
$
$
411,820
6,917,190
% of sales
75%
% of sales
89%
% of sales
76%
$
$
$
$
4,857,533
368,026
5,225,558
1,691,632
$
$
1,009,765
1,287,758
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,297,524
(605,892)
1,888
(178,174)
3,453
(778,725)
17,174
(795,899)
-33%
15%
% of sales
19%
0.03%
% of sales
-3%
% of sales
0.05%
% of sales
-11%
% of sales
0.25%
0.12
Tax
2017
2018
2019
2020
$
$
$
$
$
8,782,250
1,000,000
6,460,000
555,957
16,798,207
$
$
$
$
$
11,856,037
1,500,000
11,381,980
750,542
25,488,559
$
$
$
$
$
16,005,650
2,500,000
15,175,832
1,013,232
34,694,714
$
$
$
$
$
21,607,627
4,000,000
21,089,915
1,367,863
48,065,405
$
$
$
$
6,557,669
496,835
7,054,504
9,743,703
$
$
$
$
8,852,853
670,727
9,523,580
15,964,979
$
$
$
$
11,951,352
905,481
12,856,833
21,837,880
$
$
$
$
16,134,325
1,222,400
17,356,725
30,708,680
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,452,187
2,519,731
(283,128)
4,688,790
5,054,912
4,584
(432,691)
8,385
4,635,191
1,622,317
3,012,874
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,720,797
3,058,627
(594,136)
6,185,289
9,779,690
6,955
(656,538)
12,724
9,142,831
3,199,991
5,942,840
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5,064,704
3,122,524
(1,604,166)
6,583,062
15,254,818
9,467
(893,672)
17,319
14,387,933
5,035,777
9,352,157
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
7,016,546
2,403,270
(3,248,432)
6,171,384
24,537,297
13,116
(1,238,076)
23,994
23,336,330
8,167,715
15,168,614
35%
2013
2013 - assumption
Assets
Current assets
Cash and cash equivalents
Cash from Solar City
Restricted cash and marketable securities
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
Total current assets
Operating lease vehicles, net
Property, plant and equipment, net
Restricted cash
Other assets
Total assets
Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity
Current liabilities
Accounts payable
Accrued liabilities
Deferred revenue
Resale value guarantees
Customer deposits
Long-term debt and capital leases
Total current liabilities
2014 - assumption
42%
845,889.00
60%
0.150%
2%
17%
1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,012.00
49,109.00
340,355.00
27,574.00
1,265,939.00
382,425.00
738,494.00
6,435.00
23,637.00
2,416,930.00
1%
7%
30%
2%
15%
5%
5%
0%
8%
0%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
303,969.00
108,252.00
91,882.00
7,722.00
163,153.00
182.00
675,160.00
24%
8%
6%
0%
8%
19%
9%
29%
12%
3%
$
$
$
$
$
181,180.00
586,119.00
236,299.00
58,197.00
1,749,810.00
9%
57%
15%
5%
Deferred revenue
Long-term debt and capital leases
Resale value guarantee
Other long-term liabilities
Total liabilities
19%
37%
0%
1%
0%
Convertible senior notes (Notes 8)
0%
$
Stockholders' equity:
Preferred stock; $0.001 par value; 100,0
issued and outstanding
Common stock; $0.001 par value; 2,000,
December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively; 131,425 and 125,688
shares issued and outstanding as of December 31, 2015
0.0061%
and 2014, respectively
123
Additional paid-in capital
90%
$
1,806,617.00
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
0%
$
Accumulated deficit
-57%
$
(1,139,620.00)
Total stockholders' equity
33%
$
667,120.00
Total liabilities and stockholders' equity
70%
$
1,416,930.00
$
$
2,013.00
2,013,496.00
24%
57%
0%
1%
2%
0.0039%
73%
-0.0007%
-45%
29%
182%
2014
2015
2015 - assumption
1,905,713
30%
1,196,908
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
17,947
226,604
953,675
76,134
3,180,073
766,744
1,829,267
11,374
43,209
5,830,667
1%
4%
32%
3%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
22,628
168,965
1,277,838
125,229
2,791,568
1,791,403
3,403,334
31,522
74,633
8,092,460
777,946
268,883
191,651
23%
10%
10%
3%
7%
16%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
916,148
422,798
423,961
136,831
283,370
633,166
2,816,274
44%
84%
1%
2%
$
$
$
$
$
$
257,587
611,099
2,107,166
$
$
$
$
$
292,271
1,818,785
487,879
154,660
4,860,761
11%
50%
32%
9%
$
$
$
$
$
446,105
2,040,375
1,293,741
364,976
6,961,471
58,196
1%
42,045
$
$
$
$
$
126.00
2,345,266
(22)
(1,433,660)
911,710
5,830,667
0.0032%
84%
-0.0879%
-57%
27%
200%
$
$
$
$
$
131
3,414,692
(3,556)
(2,322,323)
1,088,944
8,092,460
2,014
2,015
3,198,356
4,046,025
Projections:
REFEREN
Total Revenue
Assumption
Cash/Sales
5,426,134
2016
Industry Average
44%
8%
2,372,621
Securities/Sales
1%
Acc Rec/Sales
5%
inventory/sales
26%
expenses/sales
2%
Sum of all current assets
% of sales
29%
% of sales
65%
% of sales
1%
% of sales
1%
Sum of current and non current
3%
31%
12%
10%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
54,261
247,795
1,416,292
108,523
4,199,491
1,577,952
3,526,987.10
54,261
79,032
9,437,723
% of sales
21%
% of sales
8%
% of sales
7%
% of sales
1%
% of sales
8%
% of sales
12%
Sum of all current liabilities
7%
13%
1%
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,122,541
438,304
380,443
68,105
418,904
628,795
3,057,092
% of sales
% of sales
% of sales
% of sales
Sum of all liabilities
1%
17%
$
$
$
$
$
527,460
2,441,760
1,356,534
302,897
7,685,743
51,706.14
$
$
$
$
$
240.31
4,475,635.10
(1,602.09)
(2,872,624.58)
1,601,648.73
9,287,391.76
% of sales
10%
45%
25%
6%
1%
% of sales
###
% of sales
82%
% of sales
###
% of sales
-53%
Total stockholders' equity
Total liabilities and SE
26%
26%
10%
3%
11%
6%
7,373,881 $
9,954,739 $
13,438,897 $
2017
2018
2019
18,142,511
2020
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,224,289
100,000
73,739
336,743
1,924,679
147,478
5,806,927
2,144,368
4,793,022.65
73,739
107,401
12,925,457
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
4,352,790
150,000
99,547
454,602
2,598,316
199,095
7,854,351
2,894,897
6,470,580.35
99,547
144,991
17,464,367
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
5,876,266
250,000
134,389
613,713
3,507,727
268,778
10,650,873
3,908,111
8,735,283.05
134,389
195,738
23,624,394
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
7,932,959
400,000
181,425
828,513
4,735,431
362,850
14,441,179
5,275,950
11,792,632.15
181,425
264,246
31,955,432
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
1,525,485
695,636
617,006
92,551
569,273
854,505
4,354,456
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,059,405
804,109
847,958
124,944
768,518
1,153,581
5,758,515
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
2,780,196
1,085,547
1,192,243
168,675
1,037,499
1,557,335
7,821,495
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
3,753,265
1,465,488
1,672,028
227,711
1,400,624
2,102,402
10,621,518
$
$
$
$
$
716,795
3,318,246
1,843,470
411,624
10,644,592
$
$
$
$
$
967,674
4,479,633
2,488,685
555,692
14,250,198
$
$
$
$
$
1,306,359
6,047,504
3,359,724
750,184
19,285,267
$
$
$
$
$
1,763,585
8,164,130
4,535,628
1,012,749
26,097,610
128,060.50 $
172,881.67
$
$
$
$
$
70,266.40 $
326.57
6,082,194.17
(2,177.18)
(3,903,772.34)
2,176,571.22
12,821,163.00
$
$
$
$
$
94,859.63 $
440.86
8,210,961.85
(2,939.19)
(5,270,092.47)
2,938,371.05
17,188,569.45
$
$
$
$
$
595.17
11,084,797.95
(3,967.91)
(7,114,624.49)
3,966,800.72
23,252,067.64
$
$
$
$
$
$
803.47
14,964,477.28
(5,356.67)
(9,604,743.09)
5,355,180.99
31,452,791.40
2013.00
4.58
Past:
2014.00
2.43
2015.00
2.44
2015.00
0.23
Present:
2016.00
0.24
Future:
2018.00
3.67
Industry Comparisons:
Daimler:
2014
2015
-4.87
-7.48
Nissan
2014
2015
10.82
11.42
BMW
2014
2015
-5.72
-6.69
Gross Profit Margin:
2013.00
0.23
Past:
2014.00
0.28
2017.00
0.58
Future:
2018.00
0.63
Industry Comparisons:
Daimler:
2014
2015
6%
21%
Nissan
2014
2015
19%
20%
BMW
2014
2015
21%
20%
2013.00
8.90
Past:
2014.00
25.86
Industry Comparisons:
Daimler:
2014
2015
99.50
107.96
Nissan
2014
2015
28.52
25.08
BMW
2014
2015
169.96
165.78
2015.00
15.24
Future:
Average
2019.00
3.67
2020.00
3.67
2019.00
0.63
2020.00
0.64
ales Outstanding)
Future:
2019.00
6.46
2020.00
6.29
Future:
3.47
Average
0.43
Average
11.21
EBIT
NOPAT
PPE
NWC
FCF
2016
(605,891.88)
(605,891.88)
3,526,987.10
1,142,399.12
(5,275,278.10)
DCF Model
Shares Outstanding
Tax rate
Intrinsic Value
Current Price
WACC
(5,275,278.10)
131,425.00
35%
120.61
190.56
2017
5,054,912.39
5,054,912.39
4,793,022.65
1,452,470.91
(1,190,581.17)
2018
9,779,690.31
9,779,690.31
6,470,580.35
2,095,835.65
1,213,274.31
2019
15,254,818.39
15,254,818.39
8,735,283.05
2,829,377.99
3,690,157.35
2020
24,537,296.51
15,949,242.73
11,792,632.15
3,819,660.30
336,950.28
2
(1,069,761.65)
3
1,033,358.51
4
2,979,208.59
5
257,861.12
5.50%
4.0%
Terminal Growth R Intrinsic Value
5.00%
399.57
4.90%
329.55
4.80%
279.65
4.70%
242.29
4.60%
213.27
4.50%
190.07
4.40%
171.11
4.30%
155.32
4.20%
141.96
4.10%
130.52
4.00%
120.61
2021 (Terminal)
350,428.30
6
17,926,173.97
15,851,562.45
Income Statement
Revenue
Cost of sales
Gross Profit
Selling Expenses
General Administrative Expense
Research and non capitalized
Other operating income
Other operating expense
Profit/Loss on equity
Other Financial Income/expense
Interest Income
Interest Expense
Profit before income taxes
Income taxes
Net Profit
2014 % sales
129872.00
-101688.00 -78.30%
8184.00
6.30%
11534.00
8.88%
3329.00
2.56%
-4532.00 -3.49%
1759.00
1.35%
-1160.00 -0.89%
897.00
0.69%
458.00
0.35%
145.00
0.11%
-715.00 -0.55%
10173.00
7.83%
-2883.00 -2.22%
7290.00
5.61%
Balance Sheet
Assets
Intangible assets
PPE
Equipment on Op Leases
Equity-method investments
Receivables from financial services
Marketable debt securities
Other financial assets
Deferred financial assets
Other assets
Total NON current assets
Inventories
Receivables
Cash
Marketable debt securities
Other financial assets
Other assets
Total Current assets
Total assets
2014
9367.00
23182.00
33050.00
2294.00
34910.00
1374.00
3634.00
4124.00
555.00
112490.00
20864.00
35403.00
9667.00
5260.00
2353.00
3598.00
77145.00
189635.00
7.21%
17.85%
25.45%
1.77%
26.88%
1.06%
2.80%
3.18%
0.43%
86.62%
16.07%
27.26%
7.44%
4.05%
1.81%
2.77%
59.40%
146.02%
3070.00
11906.00
28487.00
202.00
44585.00
12806.00
851.00
50399.00
2644.00
3581.00
14.00
78077.00
10178.00
757.00
7267.00
36290.00
8062.00
2413.00
2001.00
66974.00
189635.00
2.36%
9.17%
21.93%
0.16%
34.33%
9.86%
0.66%
38.81%
2.04%
2.76%
0.01%
60.12%
7.84%
0.58%
5.60%
27.94%
6.21%
1.86%
1.54%
51.57%
2015 % sales
149467.00
-177670.00 -118.87%
31797.00
21.27%
12147.00
8.13%
3170.00
2.12%
-4760.00
-3.18%
2114.00
1.41%
-555.00
-0.37%
464.00
0.31%
-27.00
-0.02%
170.00
0.11%
-602.00
-0.40%
12744.00
8.53%
-4033.00
-2.70%
8711.00
5.83%
AVG
-98.58%
13.79%
8.50%
2.34%
-3.34%
1.38%
-0.63%
0.50%
0.17%
0.11%
-0.48%
8.18%
-2.46%
5.72%
2015
10069.00
6.74%
24322.00
16.27%
38942.00
26.05%
3633.00
2.43%
38359.00
25.66%
1148.00
0.77%
4908.00
3.28%
3284.00
2.20%
654.00
0.44%
125319.00
83.84%
23760.00
15.90%
44209.00
29.58%
9936.00
6.65%
7125.00
4.77%
2546.00
1.70%
4271.00
2.86%
91847.00
61.45%
217166.00 145.29%
3070.00
11917.00
36991.00
1583.00
54624.00
8663.00
875.00
59831.00
2876.00
4851.00
30.00
85461.00
10548.00
777.00
9710.00
41311.00
9484.00
2888.00
2363.00
77081.00
217166.00
2.05%
7.97%
24.75%
1.06%
36.55%
5.80%
0.59%
40.03%
1.92%
3.25%
0.02%
57.18%
7.06%
0.52%
6.50%
27.64%
6.35%
1.93%
1.58%
51.57%
6.97%
17.06%
25.75%
2.10%
26.27%
0.91%
3.04%
2.69%
0.43%
85.23%
15.98%
28.42%
7.05%
4.41%
1.76%
2.81%
60.43%
145.66%
2.21%
8.57%
23.34%
0.61%
35.44%
7.83%
0.62%
39.42%
1.98%
3.00%
0.02%
58.65%
7.45%
0.55%
6.05%
27.79%
6.28%
1.90%
1.56%
51.57%
Balance Sheet
Assets
Current Assets
Cash
Accounts Receivable
Sales Receivables
Securities
Merchandise and Finished Goods
Other
Total current assets
PPE
Intangible assets
Investment Securities
Long term loans receivable
net defined benefit
Deferred tax assets
other
total investments and other assets
total fixed assets
total assets
Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Shrt Term Borrowing
Current long term borrowing
commercial paper
current portion of bonds
Lease obligations
Accrued expenses
Other
Total current liabilities
Long term liabilities
Bonds
Long term borrowings
Lease obligations
Deferred tax liabilities
accrued warranty costs
net defined benefit liability
other
Total Long term liabilities
total liabilities
2014 % of Sales
2015 %
of Sales
AVG
761074.00
888814.00
6312874.00
41651.00
853962.00
851168.00
10317345.00
5266239.00
114456.00
988733.00
14569.00
10078.00
140669.00
195927.00
1347619.00
6728314.00
17045659.00
6.69%
7.81%
55.50%
0.37%
7.51%
7.48%
90.70%
46.30%
1.01%
8.69%
0.13%
0.09%
1.24%
1.72%
11.85%
59.15%
149.85%
918771.00
837704.00
6653237.00
73384.00
857818.00
825080.00
10747573.00
5216902.00
130877.00
893688.00
7747.00
4691.00
187106.00
186962.00
1278291.00
6626070.00
17373643.00
7.54%
6.87%
54.58%
0.60%
7.04%
6.77%
88.17%
42.80%
1.07%
7.33%
0.06%
0.04%
1.53%
1.53%
10.49%
54.36%
142.53%
7.11%
7.34%
###
0.48%
7.27%
7.13%
###
###
1.04%
8.01%
0.10%
0.06%
1.39%
1.63%
###
###
###
1554399.00
1022613.00
1379780.00
200692.00
216942.00
23043.00
908909.00
64.00
6417495.00
13.66%
8.99%
12.13%
1.76%
1.91%
0.20%
7.99%
0.00%
56.42%
1479689.00
1037271.00
1350894.00
499875.00
357998.00
14916.00
981989.00
51.00
6764187.00
12.14%
8.51%
11.08%
4.10%
2.94%
0.12%
8.06%
0.00%
55.49%
###
8.75%
###
2.93%
2.42%
0.16%
8.02%
0.00%
###
1095518.00
2717.00
18167.00
673521.00
129365.00
336261.00
410592.00
5380902.00
11798397.00
9.63%
0.02%
0.16%
5.92%
1.14%
2.96%
3.61%
47.30%
103.72%
969987.00
2755896.00
14460.00
691809.00
138107.00
424123.00
474329.00
5468711.00
12232898.00
7.96%
22.61%
0.12%
5.68%
1.13%
3.48%
3.89%
44.86%
100.36%
8.79%
###
0.14%
5.80%
1.14%
3.22%
3.75%
###
###
Shareholders equity
Common Stock
605814.00
Capital surplus
804567.00
retained earnings
3811848.00
treasury stock
-148239.00
total shareholders equity
5073990.00
Total accumulated other comprehen
-239574.00
Total net assetes
5247262.00
Total liabilities and equity
17045659.00
5.33%
7.07%
33.51%
-1.30%
44.61%
-2.11%
46.13%
149.85%
605814.00
805646.00
4150740.00
-148684.00
5413516.00
-692251.00
5140745.00
17373643.00
4.97%
6.61%
34.05%
-1.22%
44.41%
-5.68%
42.17%
142.53%
5.15%
6.84%
###
###
###
###
###
###
Income Statement
Net Sales
11375207.00
Cost of sales
9241341.00
Gross profit
2133866.00
Total Selling General Administrative
1544305.00
Operating Income
589561.00
Total non operating income
222259.00
Interest expense
29167.00
100.00%
81.24%
18.76%
13.58%
5.18%
1.95%
0.26%
12189519.00
9796998.00
2392521.00
1599243.00
793278.00
204366.00
24806.00
100.00%
80.37%
19.63%
13.12%
6.51%
1.68%
0.20%
###
###
###
###
5.85%
1.82%
0.23%
117588.00
694232.00
1.03%
6.10%
135372.00
862272.00
1.11%
7.07%
1.07%
6.59%
687421.00
197324.00
490097.00
6.04%
1.73%
4.31%
732934.00
552793.00
5238441.00
6.01%
4.53%
42.97%
6.03%
3.13%
###
Income Statements
Revenues
Cost of sales
Gross profit
Selling and administrative expenses
other operating income
other operating expenses
Profit/loss before tax
income taxes
net profit/loss
E/P
Balance sheet
Intangible Assets
PPE
Investments accounted for using equit
other investments
receivables from sales financing
financial assets
deferred assets
other assets
non current assets
inventories
trade receivables
financial assts
current t ax
other assets
cash
current assets
total assets
equity and liabilities
equity
other provisions
current tax
financial liabilities
trade payables
other liabilities
current provisions and liabilities
total equity and liabilities
2014 % sales
80401.00 100.00%
-63396.00 -78.85%
17005.00 21.15%
-7892.00
-9.82%
877.00
1.09%
-872.00
-1.08%
8707.00 10.83%
-2890.00
-3.59%
5817.00
7.23%
8.83
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
6499.00
8.08%
17182.00 21.37%
1088.00
1.35%
408.00
0.51%
37438.00 46.56%
1024.00
1.27%
2061.00
2.56%
1094.00
1.36%
97959.00 121.84%
0.00%
11089.00 13.79%
2153.00
2.68%
5384.00
6.70%
1906.00
2.37%
5038.00
6.27%
7688.00
9.56%
56844.00 70.70%
154803.00 192.54%
0.00%
0.00%
37437.00 46.56%
4522.00
5.62%
1590.00
1.98%
37482.00 46.62%
7709.00
9.59%
7775.00
9.67%
59078.00 73.48%
154803.00 192.54%
2015 % sales
92175.00 100.00%
-74043.00 -80.33%
18132.00
19.67%
8633.00
9.37%
914.00
0.99%
-820.00
-0.89%
9224.00
10.01%
-2828.00
-3.07%
6396.00
6.94%
9.70
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
7372.00
8.00%
17759.00
19.27%
2233.00
2.42%
428.00
0.46%
41865.00
45.42%
2208.00
2.40%
1945.00
2.11%
1568.00
1.70%
110343.00 119.71%
0.00%
11071.00
12.01%
2751.00
2.98%
6635.00
7.20%
2381.00
2.58%
4693.00
5.09%
6122.00
6.64%
61831.00
67.08%
172174.00 186.79%
0.00%
0.00%
42764.00
46.39%
5009.00
5.43%
1441.00
1.56%
42160.00
45.74%
7773.00
8.43%
9208.00
9.99%
65591.00
71.16%
172174.00 186.79%
AVG
###
-79.59%
20.41%
-0.22%
1.04%
-0.99%
10.42%
-3.33%
7.09%
0.01%
0.00%
0.00%
8.04%
20.32%
1.89%
0.49%
45.99%
1.83%
2.34%
1.53%
###
0.00%
12.90%
2.83%
6.95%
2.48%
5.68%
8.10%
68.89%
###
0.00%
0.00%
46.48%
5.53%
1.77%
46.18%
9.01%
9.83%
72.32%
###