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MBA612;
Chapter(s)
instructor, 6
6
instructor
7
Lecture 1
Four Rules of Summation
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Xi
5Xi
20
18
22
25
15
100
90
110
125
75
500
X
i=1
= 100
5Xi = 500, The above approach uses case by case method. That is, for each value
of I, the value of 5xi is found and then these values are summed.
Lamb
MBA612;
Rule #1
n
K
i=1
Xi= K X
i=1
Rule #2
(Xi + Yi)
(Xi + Yi) = Xi + Yi
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Yi
2
1
0
2
1
6
Xi + Y i
22
19
22
27
16
106
Here, again, we have found the value of the expression case by case then summed.
Also, (Xi + Yi) = Xi + Yi = 100 + 6 = 106 Here we have simplified the expression
and found the same answer.
Rule #3
n
K =nk
i=1
Rule #4
n
X
i=1
1)
2)
Yi
Xi
20
18
Yi
2
1
XiYi
40
18
2
Lamb
MBA612;
3)
4)
5)
0
2
1
6
22
25
15
100
0
50
15
123
X
i=1
Yi (Xi) (Yi)
123 100 x 6
That is, one cannot find the value of the quantity on the left hand side of the
expression by using the expression on the right hand side and visa versa.
The following is a formula for sample variance. As one moves from the first formula
to the second formula, one uses all the rules of summation.
S2 = (Xi
X )2
(n-1)
S2 = n Xi2 ( Xi)2
n (n 1)
Statistics
X
= Xi
n
E ( X ) = , This means, the expected value of the sample mean is the population
mean.
Parameter
Definition of Parameter is the average value of all X
This formula is used when you have all the data and not a sample of data.
Lamb
MBA612;
xi
i=1
N
= E (X) is again defined as the population average value of x.
= /
An example, Calculate
i/j
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
20
22
18
25
15
100
30
32
28
35
25
150
X ij
j=1 i=1
X ij
X
i=1
j=1 i=1
i1
X
i=1
i2
(X11 + X21 + X31 + X41 + X51) + (X12 + X22 + X32 + X42 + X52)
20 + 22 + 18+ 25 + 15 + 30 + 32 + 28 + 35 + 25
100 + 150 =250
Lamb
MBA612;
= X/n
n+1
The median is not affected by extreme values; however the mean is affected by
extreme values
Mode
Median
Mean
The mean is affected by extreme values. Assume that in this example the data is
nonsymmetrical and skewed to the right.
Variance
A statistic is always from a sample.
Lamb
MBA612;
Statistic
s2 =
( X i X )2
/(n-1)
i=1
xi
i=1
2 =
Parameter
i=1
/N
2 = E (X - )2
Definition of Parameter
Standard Deviation
( X i)2
This is the picture of a variable that is normally distributed with mean , and
standard deviation .
Note, picture should be symmetrical about
Sample Means are normally distributed. Again, the curve should be symmetrical
(sorry, I flunked art)
Lamb
MBA612;
X = /
mean
A larger size sample used to obtain the sample mean will tend to get the sample
means closer to
Lamb
MBA612;
To find the variance of a discrete random variable, use the following formula.
2 = E(X - )2 = (X - )2 P(Xi)
X
P(X) (Xi - )2
(Xi - )2 P(Xi)
1, 2
$10 2/6
400
800/6
3, 4, 5
$20 3/6
100
300/6
6
$100 1/6
4,900
4900/6
6,000/6
2 = 1000
= $31.62
If we were to play the game 16 times the average winnings per roll would be $30,
and the standard deviation of that mean would be
X = /
= 31.62/4 = 7
= /
30
Binomial Distribution
1) Successive independent trials with only 2 outcomes per trial
Yes
or
No
Heads or
Tails
Buy
or
Not Buy
Probability of success remains constant throughout experiment
Lamb
MBA612;
Random variable
If distribution follows a binomial then this is the formula
n!
(n x)! x!
pxqn- x
n = # of trials
P = probability of success on any single trail
q = (1 P)
X = specific # of successes
For Example
n = 5, this is the number of trials
P = 2/6 =1/3
X=2
5! (1/3)2 (2/3)2
3! 2!
10 x 1/9 x 8/27
80/243
= Xi P(Xi)
Shortcut for mean
= np
(number of trials x probability of success)
Variance shortcut for a binomial
2 = npq
5 2/6 4/6 =
In order for us to recognize that a problem can be modeled by the binomial
theorem, we must have n independent trials with only 2 relevant outcomes per
trial. It is also the case that the binomial distribution becomes normally distributed
if certain conditions are met np> 5 and nq>5. In the following example the
conditions for the normal distribution would be met.
170
200 230
n= 400
P=
And therefore np=200 (the mean)
The variance is equal to npq or
400 = 100, and the standard
Deviation would equal , = 10, = 100
10
Lamb
MBA612;
170
Rarely will you be outside the range 170 230
230
Discrete Distribution
X
0
1
2
3
4
P(X)
1/16
4/16
6/16
4/16
1/16
Where 2, 3, 4, 12
1
2
3
4
5
6
X
2
3
p(x)
1/36
2/36
10
Lamb
MBA612;
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3/36
4/36
5/36
6/36
5/36
4/36
3/36
2/36
1/36
Green/Red
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
6
7
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Normal Distribution
(X - )2
103
F(x) =
12
90
e- 2
(x-)2/2
Lamb
MBA612;
Z is the number of standard deviation that an observation is away from its mean.
Z=
.0228
90
100 103
-1
.3
Prove that the z = 0
Z is defined as = X - x
x
z = E (x-x) = E (x) - x = x - x = 0
x
x
x
Variance of Z
22 = E(z-z)2
= E(z2)
=E
=
X i 2
(
)
E ( X i )2 / 2
x2
= E(x - x)2
x2
= x2
x2
=1
Central Limit Theorem Sample means are normally distributed. A small sample used to
obtain means will generate sample means that are normally distributed, then if the distribution of
the original variable is non symmetric, a larger size sample to gather the means will be necessary
before the distribution of sample means become normal.
An Exercise to demonstrate the Central Limit Theorem:
X
P(X)
(X - x) 2P(Xi)
P(
)
12
Lamb
MBA612;
1
3
5
1/3
1/3
1/3
4/3
0
4/3
3/9
2/9
= (XiP(Xi)) = 3
2= E(X-x)2 = (X - x)2P(Xi) = 8/3
1/9
Sample Size 2
X
1 2
3 4 5
Notice that with a sample size of only two, the distribution of sample means can be
approximated by the normal distribution. That is to say, sample means quickly take on the shape
of the normal even when the sample size is very small. Notice, however, that the original
distribution of the variable was symmetrical. If the underlying distribution is highly skewed, then
it would take a much larger sample size for the distribution of sample means to become normal.
X
1, 1
1, 3
1, 5
3, 1
3, 3
1
2
3
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
3, 5
5, 1
5, 3
5, 5
4
3
4
5
X
X
E(
E(
- )2 P(
=(
= (8/3)/2 = 4/3
X
(P )
1/9
4/9
9/9
8/9
5/9
- )2
4
1
0
1
4
=3
X
P( )
1/9
2/9
3/9
2/9
1/9
- )2P(
4/9
2/9
0
2/9
4/9
X
= 4/3
( X i P ( X i ) )
=
X
P(
)=
13
Lamb
MBA612;
2 / n or
x
X
=
x/n
+ 6Yi)
i=1
Work
a.) case by case
b.) simplify
Xi
Yi
1) 20
2
2) 18
1
3) 22
0
4) 25
2
5) 15
1
100 6
Problem #2
(Xi 20)
Work
a.) case by case
b.) simplify
14
Lamb
MBA612;
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Xi
20
18
22
25
15
100
Yi
2
1
0
2
1
6
Problem #3
(3XiYi 4Xi)
Work
a.) case by case
b.) simplify
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
Xi
20
18
22
25
15
100
Yi
2
1
0
2
1
6
Problem #4
Prove. Using the rules of summation that :
n
(x ix )2
i=1
(n1)
={n
x
i=1
2
i
xi
i=1
)2}/n(n-1)
Problem #5
Find s2 using both formulas and the data below. You should get the same answer for
each.
Formula #1
15
Lamb
MBA612;
S2 = (Xi -
X )2
n-1
Formula #2
S2 = nXi2 (Xi)2
n(n 1)
30
30
10
15
25
Problem #6
Flip a coin 4 times. Xi = the number of heads
H
T
Xi
0
1
2
3
H
T
H
T
P(Xi)
1/16
4/16
6/16
4/16
16
Lamb
MBA612;
4
1/16
Find
= Xi P(Xi)
Find Variance
2 = (Xi
)2 P(Xi)
Problem #7
Binomial Distribution,
a) Determine the following probabilities for all possible values of x, given n=5, p
=1/3, q=2/3.
b) Then find the mean using = Xi P(Xi)
c) Then find the variance using 2 = (Xi
)2 P(Xi)
d) Use the shortcut formula for the mean of a binomial = np, and compare
your answer to the answer found in b.
e) Use the shortcut formula for the variance of a binomial 2 = npq, and
compare your answer to the answer found in c.
X
0
1
2
3
4
5
P(X)
80/243
Problem #8
Redo the exercise that I did in class to demonstrate Central Limit
Theorem, using a sample size of 3 instead of 2.
Lamb
MBA612;
( X )2P( X )
2X
2x
n
18