Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
By
Harold L. Irby
May 1998
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Definitions
Companys Process
Categories
Uncertainties
Estimation Process
Estimation Techniques
Calculation Example
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Hydrocarbon Reserves are the estimates of technically recoverable quantities of crude oil,
natural gas and natural gas liquids from naturally occurring
accumulations which have been delineated and characterized by a
combined analysis of available geo-scientific data (geological,
geophysical, petro-physical and reservoir engineering etc.). To be
developed, reserves must economically viable under the current and
prevailing business environment. All reserves estimates involve some
degree of uncertainty for which a reasonable assessment should be
attempted.
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Represents that portion of ultimate reserves which can be recovered with a high
degree of certainty and/or a level of confidence based on actual or similar field
performance (e.g. 80%) and using primary recovery, pressure maintenance and
enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods where their successes have already been
demonstrated for that type of reservoir in that geological basin.
Probable Reserves Represent that portion of additional reserves which can be recovered through a
better than expected reservoir performance and/or reservoir engineering methods.
Probable Reserves have a reasonable degree of certainty and/or confidence (e.g.
50%). Recovery and production methods are based on the same technology
available for Proved Reserves.
Possible Reserves Represent the ultimately recoverable resources which can be recovered with a
relatively low degree of certainty and/or a minimal level of confidence (e.g. 15%).
Possible Reserves represent the maximum ultimate recovery estimated for a
known hydrocarbon accumulation once all testing, delineation and evaluation of
this accumulation has been completed. Possible reserves are also incremental
EOR Reserves not booked previously. Recovery and production methods are
based on the same technology available for Proved Reserves.
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Reserves (SEC) Proved Oil and Gas Reserves: Proved oil and gas reserves are the
estimated quantities of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids
which geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable
certainty to be recoverable in future years from know reservoirs under
existing economic and operating conditions, i.e., prices and costs as of
the date the estimate is made. Prices include consideration of changes in
existing prices provided only be by contractual arrangements, but not on
escalations based upon future conditions.
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DELIVERABLES
Other Documents
Exploration Discoveries
(Exploration Department)
Development Discoveries
& Pore Volume Maps
(Reservoir
Characterization)
Annual Update of
OIL & GAS Reserves
Approval of Year-end
Reserves Report
(E&P Management)
Review of
Reserves Report
with Management
Publications
Year-end
Reserves Report
(Corporate, E&P
Management)
Supplementary
Reserves Reports
(E&P Management)
Basic Reservoir
Data Update
(Reservoir Management)
Computer Programming
Support & Maintenance
(Computer Support)
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Reserves
System
OOIP/OGIP
Reserves
Production Data
Recovery Factors
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Resource Category
R Proved Reserves
E
S
E Probable Reserves
R
V
E
Possible Reserves
S
R
E Potential Resources
S
O
U Conceptual Resources
R
C
E Speculative Resources
S
Economic Feasibility
A high probability
Definite
A modered probability
Definite
A low probability
Most Likely
Marginal or
Undetermined (limited by data)
Undetermined
(limited data)
Undetermined
(lack of data)
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Adapted from SPE and World Congress Publications
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Initial
Dev.
Development Stage
Expl
Risk
Very High
High
Possible
Reserves Estimation
Methods / Techniques
Reserves Type
Depletion Stage
Moderate
Probable
Low
Risk Analysis
Analogy
Volumetric
Model Studies
Performance/Material Balance
Decline Trend
Proved
Plateau
Rate (BPD)
Production Profile
Production Operations
Decline
Reserves
Economic Limit
Risk Considerations
Volumetric
Deterministic
Stochastic
Reservoir Analogy
Material Balance Computations
Decline Curve Analysis
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Oil Prices
Development & Production Cost (CAPEX & OPEX)
Taxes and Royalties
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Deterministic
Model
SINGLE
RESERVES
VALUE
Pore Volume
(A, h & )
Swi, Boi
Recovery Factor
Stochastic
Model
PROBALISTIC
RESERVES
DISTRIBUTION
Volumetric Reserves Equation (Oil) OOIP = A h (1 - Swi ) / Boi = Pore Volume (1 - Swi ) / Boi
Reserves = OOIP (STB) x Recovery Factor (fraction)
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Injector
Areal Sweep, Ea = 90%
Zone 1
Ei = 70%
Zone 2
Ei = 100%
Zone 3
Ei = 50%
Oil
Water
Vertical Sweep Efficiency: Ei = 0.25 x 0.70 + 0.5 x 1.0 + 0.25 x 0.5 = 0.80 or 80%
Volumetric Sweep Efficiency: Ev = Ei x Ea = 0.80 x 0.90 = 0.72 or 72%
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90
PROVED
80
Proved
X = 677
Probable Y = 745
Potential Z = 880
80
50
20
50
55
65
70
where
60
50
PROVED + PROBABLE
40
30
PROVED+PROBABLE+POTENTIAL
20
10
X
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1350
1450
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Example Field / Reservoir Correlations Reservoir Analogy: (data shown in graphical form follows)
RF = ( % OOIP ) = -18.97 + 14.08 * LN ( kh / oi )
Facies Analogy: (data shown in graphical form follows)
RF = ( % OOIP ) = +31.41 + 7.15 * LN ( kh / oi )
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Legend
70
Field 1 Reservoir A
Field 2 Reservoir A
Field 3 Reservoir A
60
Field 4 Reservoir A
Field 5 Reservoir A
Field 6 Reservoir A
50
40
30
20
10
with r
= 0.98 & Standard Error of Estimated = 5% @ 95% Confidence Level
and it may not be valid for (kh / oi ) < 50.
0
10
100
TRANSMISSIBILITY, kh /
1000
( darcy - ft/cp )
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Legend
Reservoir 1 Facies A
2B
Reservoir 2 Facies A
70
2B
2B
Reservoir 3 Facies A
Reservoir 4 Facies A
60
2A
2A
Reservoir 5 Facies A
UD
Reservoir 6 Facies A
50
UC
2A
3A
3A
3B
40
3A
LC
3B
30
5
20
3B
10
with r
0
0.1
10
TRANSMISSIBILITY, kh /
100
(darcy-ft/cp)
1000
20
B
oi
K wi
oi
0.0770
0.1903 Pi
(S wi )
Pa
0.2159
with
(1 S wi )
RE (%OOIP) = 41.815
B
ob
with
0.1611
ob
0.3722 Pb
(S wi )
Pa
0.1741
(1 S wi )
RE (% OOIP ) = 52 . 70
B oi
with
0.0979
0 . 4068
K oi
wi
0 . 0337
(S wi )
0 . 04096
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Source: A Statistical Study of Recovery Efficiency, API Bulletin D14, October 1967. Based on limited number of reservoir case histories in U.S.A. only.
So(v/v)
Sw(v/v)
Np/N(v/v)
120%
0.60
100%
80%
0.50
0.40
60%
0.30
40%
0.20
20%
0.10
0%
1350
1160
960
760
560
360
310
260
210
160
0.00
110
P(psia)
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M ODEL OOIP
DATA
M e thod
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ECONOM IC LIM IT
RES ERV ES
RECOV ERY FACTOR
: 2 0 .7 3 BS TB
: Long-Te rm P re dic tion
(w ith Ga s Lift)
: De c line Curve Ana lys is
(Ha rm onic )
: 5 % Oil Cut
: 1 5 .2 BS TB
: 7 3 .3 % OOIP
Re se rv e s
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12 000
13000
14000
15000
N p, C U M U LA TIV E P R O D U C TIO N (M M S TB )
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16000
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ORIGINAL
CONDITIONS
END OF
WATERFLOOD
ROCK
ROCK
OIL
WATER
PORE VOLUME =
Oil & Water Volumes
EXAMPLE
Bulk Volume BV (MM Barrels)
Rock Volume RV (MM Barrels)
Pore Volume PV (% BV=Porosity)
Pore Volume (MM Barrels)
Water Volume (% PV=Water Saturation)
Water Volume (MM Barrels)
Oil Volume (% PV=Oil Saturation)
Oil Volume (MM Barrels)
Oil Gravity ( API )
Oil Shrinkage (Fraction)
OOIP (MM Stock Tank Barrels)
100
80
20
20
15
3
85
17
36
0.67
11
(assumed)
%
%
% (initial)
API
100
80
20 %
20
70 %
14
30 % (residual)
6
36 API
0.67
4 (EOR)24
Ev
Pore
20
OOIP
11
Reserves
5
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Thank You
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