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de este sitio un bordo para proteccin contra inundaciones. Calcular los gastos de diseo para los perodos de
Calcular los gastos de diseo con las funciones de probabilidad Normal, Lognormal, Gumbel y DobleGumbel
NO APLICAR A
columna 1
columna 2
columna 3
columna 4
columna 5
columna 6
Ao
Gastos
Gasto ordenado
Nm. De orden
Tr
F(z)
( m /s)
( m /s)
(aos)
26
1954
2230
7430
26
0.9615
13
8.67
6.5
5.2
4.33
3.71
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
2
3
4
5
6
7
13
8.666666667
6.5
5.2
4.333333333
3.714285714
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
3.25
2.89
2.6
2.36
2.17
2
1.86
1.73
1.63
1.53
1.44
1.37
1.3
1.24
1.18
1.13
1.08
1.04
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
3.25
2.888888889
2.6
2.363636364
2.166666667
2
1.857142857
1.733333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.444444444
1.368421053
1.3
1.238095238
1.181818182
1.130434783
1.083333333
1.04
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385
Miu
Sigma
x=
S=
Media =
Desv. Estndar =
3886.16
1825.91
EE=
581.94
AR A LA TAREA
columna 7
columna 8
columna 9
Q calculado
(Error)2
columna 10
( m /s)
3
7115.87
98678.17
1.4261
1.1984
1.0201
0.8694
0.7363
0.6151
6490.04
6074.29
5748.72
5473.65
5230.60
5009.35
325991.82
681798.13
268610.17
277047.96
548186.18
308746.75
0.5024
0.3957
0.2934
0.1940
0.0966
0.0000
-0.0966
-0.1940
-0.2934
-0.3957
-0.5024
-0.6151
-0.7363
-0.8694
-1.0201
-1.1984
-1.4261
-1.7688
4803.50
4608.72
4421.85
4240.44
4062.47
3886.16
3709.85
3531.88
3350.47
3163.60
2968.82
2762.97
2541.72
2298.67
2023.60
1698.03
1282.28
656.45
3540.19
135952.52
130933.04
285623.18
144755.14
443769.15
336229.49
631838.58
456264.17
455088.67
307825.79
156792.12
36755.01
2774.49
42602.55
138361.17
272194.96
1298572.33
1.7688
P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.9833333333
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
0.9999
Gastos en mcs
1.7688
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
d1=
d2=
d3=
2.515517
0.802832
0.010328
P(z)=1-1/Tr
1.432788
0.189269
0.001308
Probabilidad de no ocurrencia
w=(ln(1/(1-p(z))^2))^0.5
columna 1
Ao
columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)
columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
columna 4
Nm. De orden
columna 5
Tr
(aos)
1954
1955
2230
3220
7430
7061
1
2
26
13
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
x=
S=
Media =
Desv. Estndar =
3886.16
1825.91
561.814
columna 7
w
columna 8
z
columna 9
Q calculado
( m3/s)
columna 10
(Error)2
0.9615
0.9231
2.5527
2.2649
1.7674717928
1.424985164
7113.40
6488.05
100236.65
328272.04
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385
2.0782
1.9348
1.8159
1.7125
1.6200
1.5354
1.4566
1.3824
1.3116
1.2435
1.1774
1.1127
1.0489
0.9854
0.9218
0.8576
0.7920
0.7244
0.6536
0.5780
0.4952
0.4001
0.2801
1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006
6072.49
5747.01
5471.97
5228.95
5007.72
4801.91
4607.22
4420.50
4239.34
4061.73
3885.94
3710.37
3533.43
3353.46
3168.58
2976.57
2774.65
2559.06
2324.46
2062.54
1759.03
1385.20
863.44
684774.76
270391.43
278817.86
550644.54
310564.45
3354.09
134852.35
129963.54
284447.08
144191.85
443477.11
336832.16
634307.29
460304.31
461822.89
316486.31
166177.41
43707.66
6155.76
28044.18
96703.43
175393.47
869676.28
Eventos de diseo de
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000
Q (m 3/s)
columna 6
F(z)
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
columna 8
z
1.7674717928 7113.3982802
1.424985164 6488.0497097
w
1.1774
1.7941
2.1460
2.4477
2.7971
3.0349
3.2552
3.5255
3.7169
z
-0.0001
0.8407
1.2805
1.6436
2.0521
2.3244
2.5735
2.8754
3.0871
Q (m3/s)
3,885.94
5,421.21
6,224.29
6,887.24
7,633.09
8,130.21
8,585.10
9,136.30
9,522.91
1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1
-0.5
0
Z
0.5
columna 9
Q calculado
( m3/s)
1.5
6072.4888177
5747.0082442
5471.9679392
5228.9457279
5007.7169076
4801.9145143
4607.2224804
4420.5045602
4239.3358056
4061.726023
3885.94077
3710.3724289
3533.4341072
3353.4573018
3168.5755246
2976.5711578
2774.6486316
2559.0637637
2324.458676
2062.5360354
1759.0282506
1385.1999688
863.43564304
3000
2000
1000
0
-1
-0.5
0
Z
0.5
1.5
columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
Tr
(aos)
0
7430
7061
26
13
7430
7061
7113.3982802
6488.0497097
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
6072.4888177
5747.0082442
5471.9679392
5228.9457279
5007.7169076
4801.9145143
4607.2224804
4420.5045602
4239.3358056
4061.726023
3885.94077
3710.3724289
3533.4341072
3353.4573018
3168.5755246
2976.5711578
2774.6486316
2559.0637637
2324.458676
2062.5360354
1759.0282506
1385.1999688
863.43564304
columna 4
Nm. De orden
columna 5
Tr
(aos)
1954
1955
2230
3220
7430
7061
1
2
26
13
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
=
=
Media =
Desv. Estndar =
Calculo del error cuadratico mnimo
ECM=
EE=
columna 7
z
columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)
columna 9
(Error)2
8.9133
8.8623
1.767472
1.424985
7909.92
6756.22
230320.50
92890.50
8.8393
8.7431
8.6995
8.6947
8.6243
8.4646
8.3523
8.3089
8.2177
8.2112
8.0771
8.0488
7.9146
7.8917
7.8196
7.7890
7.7694
7.7622
7.7169
7.7098
7.6353
7.4978
7.4933
1.197394
1.019137
0.868504
0.735408
0.614247
0.501534
0.394907
0.292646
0.193425
0.096153
-0.000120
-0.096274
-0.193179
-0.291747
-0.393002
-0.498157
-0.608745
-0.726815
-0.855302
-0.998750
-1.164973
-1.369709
-1.655465
6084.22
5604.91
5229.44
4918.66
4651.85
4416.64
4205.10
4011.74
3832.63
3664.80
3505.94
3354.14
3207.81
3065.52
2925.91
2787.66
2649.30
2509.15
2365.05
2213.93
2050.85
1866.39
1636.35
665496.75
438361.71
593763.60
1107411.46
833851.66
107162.06
1218.26
2329.19
16034.96
295.72
81760.93
50240.53
221665.23
152503.96
190893.42
139619.50
79693.66
25329.98
14173.63
258.31
366.87
3893.05
25487.75
10000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
8.1623
0.4603
1000
0
r cuadratico mnimo
2252.78
0
-2
469.737
P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
9000
Q (m3/s)
columna 6
Ln Q
-1.5
5
-1
10
1000
-0.5
columna 7
z
z
0.0000
0.8416
1.2816
1.6449
2.0537
2.3263
2.5758
2.8782
3.0902
Q (m3/s)
3,506.13
5,165.12
6,324.55
7,475.82
9,024.08
10,230.56
11,475.58
13,189.10
14,541.57
10000
10
15
1000
-0.5
0
z
20
0.5
25
1
1.7674717928 7909.9171776
1.424985164 6756.2205749
7430
7061
1.1973936163
1.0191366415
0.8685044481
0.7354077052
0.6142466177
0.5015341703
0.3949065685
0.2926461748
0.1934249102
0.0961527989
-0.000120066
-0.096274135
-0.193178505
-0.291746971
-0.393001759
-0.498157397
-0.608744946
-0.726814992
-0.855301902
-0.998749903
-1.164972971
-1.369708688
-1.655465006
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
30
1.5
columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
( m3/s)
6084.2201596
5604.9111012
5229.4394269
4918.6638105
4651.8452142
4416.6438392
4205.0963629
4011.7383037
3832.6292029
3664.8033702
3505.9386798
3354.1439922
3207.8133716
3065.5175496
2925.9135144
2787.6569321
2649.3006586
2509.1539474
2365.0530357
2213.9281286
2050.8461468
1866.3942974
1636.3511513
sto ordenado
Tr
(aos)
Gastos
( m3/s)
Q calculado
( m3/s)
26
13
8.666666667
6.5
5.2
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
7909.92
6756.22
6084.22
5604.91
5229.44
4.333333333
3.714285714
3.25
2.888888889
2.6
2.363636364
2.166666667
2
1.857142857
1.733333333
1.625
1.529411765
1.444444444
1.368421053
1.3
1.238095238
1.181818182
1.130434783
1.083333333
1.04
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
4918.66
4651.85
4416.64
4205.10
4011.74
3832.63
3664.80
3505.94
3354.14
3207.81
3065.52
2925.91
2787.66
2649.30
2509.15
2365.05
2213.93
2050.85
1866.39
1636.35
columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)
columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
columna 4
Nm. De orden
1954
1955
2230
3220
7430
7061
1
2
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
x=
S=
Media =
Desv. Estndar =
3886.16
1825.91
g=
Coeficiente sesgo=
0.6778
gg=
gg=
gg=
8.706
618.84
-1501.26
459.785
columna 5
Tr
(aos)
columna 6
F(x)
columna 7
w
columna 8
z
columna 9
Q calculado
26
13
0.96
0.92
2.553
2.265
1.769
1.426
7511.39
6657.59
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
0.88
0.85
0.81
0.77
0.73
0.69
0.65
0.62
0.58
0.54
0.50
0.46
0.42
0.38
0.35
0.31
0.27
0.23
0.19
0.15
0.12
0.08
0.04
2.078
1.935
1.816
1.713
1.620
1.535
1.457
1.382
1.312
1.244
1.177
1.113
1.049
0.985
0.922
0.858
0.792
0.724
0.654
0.578
0.495
0.400
0.280
1.198
1.020
0.869
0.736
0.615
0.502
0.395
0.293
0.194
0.096
0.000
-0.096
-0.193
-0.292
-0.393
-0.498
-0.609
-0.727
-0.855
-0.999
-1.165
-1.370
-1.656
6121.17
5717.87
5388.39
5105.76
4855.30
4628.08
4418.18
4221.44
4034.77
3855.76
3682.44
3513.11
3346.24
3180.36
3013.95
2845.36
2672.66
2493.40
2304.25
2100.25
1873.16
1606.85
1259.15
Q (m 3/s)
10000
Q (m 3/s)
-2.000000
-1.500000
-1.000000
-0.500000
1000
0.000000
z
0.500000
1.000000
1.500000
2.00000
columna 10
(Error)2
6624.25
162742.01
606575.37
301540.42
374062.77
748639.46
503669.92
13437.76
31747.10
26061.84
108087.56
30191.41
213846.75
146772.81
371176.14
255387.54
275571.82
186073.40
93428.18
20563.48
3393.06
16834.43
38746.76
38869.23
288210.40
4862253.86
P(z)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
0.500000
1.000000
1.500000
2.000000
z
0.0000
0.8414
1.2817
1.6452
2.0542
2.3268
2.5762
2.8785
3.0905
Q (m3/s)
3682.44
5328.71
6314.30
7196.05
8264.72
9023.55
9751.51
10677.66
11356.71
columna 7
z
columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)
1.769193
1.426310
7511.39
6657.59
1.198470
1.020030
0.869250
0.736031
0.614763
0.501958
0.395248
0.292913
0.193624
0.096291
-0.000038
-0.096242
-0.193193
-0.291803
-0.393095
-0.498283
-0.608898
-0.726990
-0.855493
-0.998949
-1.165169
-1.369888
-1.655601
6121.17
5717.87
5388.39
5105.76
4855.30
4628.08
4418.18
4221.44
4034.77
3855.76
3682.44
3513.11
3346.24
3180.36
3013.95
2845.36
2672.66
2493.40
2304.25
2100.25
1873.16
1606.85
1259.15
columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
columna 2
columna 3
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
x=
S=
Media =
Desv. Estndar =
3886.16
1825.91
columna 4
columna 5
Nm. De orden
Tr
(aos)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
13
8.667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
y =
y =
1.0914
0.5309
= y / S
= x - y /
Alfa =
0.000598
(m3/s)-1
Beta =
2997.97
(m3/s)
438.2601986079
Columna 7=
columna 9
Q calculado
( m3/s)
(Error)2
3.2386
2.5252
2.0988
1.7894
1.5438
1.3380
1.1595
1.0004
0.8559
0.7226
0.5978
0.4796
0.3665
0.2572
0.1506
0.0455
-0.0591
-0.1644
-0.2717
-0.3828
-0.5000
-0.6269
-0.7699
-0.9419
-1.1811
8416.04
7222.61
6509.26
5991.69
5580.69
5236.47
4937.73
4671.67
4429.95
4206.81
3998.00
3800.31
3611.14
3428.31
3249.90
3074.10
2899.11
2722.97
2543.42
2357.60
2161.53
1949.16
1709.98
1422.11
1021.92
972284.41
26116.20
152674.52
75797.27
175822.02
539534.41
393471.82
5232.30
36081.72
21552.00
85266.52
13997.98
152991.49
88990.37
263067.93
159282.89
168188.43
95462.64
31125.13
57.75
7134.64
78868.98
129614.74
145841.15
599198.72
Eventos de diseo de la
distribucion GUMBEL
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000
Gasto en mcs
columna 8
Q (m3/s)
columna 7
Q (m3/s)
3,611.14
5,507.36
6,762.82
7,967.09
9,525.89
10,693.99
11,857.83
13,393.30
14,553.77
9000
9000
8000
8000
7000
7000
6000
6000
5000
4000
5000
3000
4000
2000
1000
3000
0
0
2000
10
15
Periodo de retorno
1000
0
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0.5
z
1
1.5
0.5
columna 7
z
columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
3.238550275 8416.0448323
2.5251949408
2.0988093153
1.7894376587
1.5437714325
1.3380214184
1.1594534651
1.0004205007
0.8559409856
0.722559893
0.5977527554
0.4795866668
0.3665129206
0.2572306095
0.1505888878
0.0455085373
-0.059091174
-0.164373955
-0.271694745
-0.382767501
-0.499962003
-0.626901698
-0.76986942
-0.941938735
-1.181143141
10
15
20
Periodo de retorno en aos
z
1
1.5
25
2.5
30
3.5
7222.6050672
6509.2641325
5991.6869596
5580.6886405
5236.4699366
4937.7266791
4671.6653565
4429.9518789
4206.8060044
3998.0043121
3800.3130603
3611.1412708
3428.3125327
3249.9014866
3074.1026066
2899.1078328
2722.9702886
2543.4231642
2357.5990209
2161.5332285
1949.1637794
1709.9795238
1422.1084544
1021.9207268
( m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
sto ordenado
columna 2
Gastos sin ordenar
( m3/s)
columna 3
Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
columna 4
Nm. De orden
columna 5
Tr
(aos)
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
2230
3220
2246
1804
2737
2070
3682
4240
2367
7061
2489
2350
3706
2675
6267
5971
4744
6000
4060
6900
5565
3130
2414
1796
7430
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
13
8.667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
Pob. ciclnica
Pob. No ciclnica
7
18
= y / S
= x - y /
y =
y =
1.049376
0.520096
Alfa1 =
0.001200
(m3/s)-1
Beta1 =
2453.10
(m3/s)
De la tabla 9.6 del libro de Aparicio obtenemos para 7 datos de la poblacin ciclnica =
y =
y =
0.4814
0.8932
= y / S
= x - y /
Alfa2 =
0.000707
(m3/s)-1
Beta2 =
5192.25
(m3/s)
Datos no ciclo.
Datos total
Nn=
NT=
18
25
Probabilidad p =
0.72
435.182
a o huracan.
x
columna 6
F(x)
columna 7
z
columna 8
Q calculado
( m3/s)
columna 9
0.9615
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385
3.2386
2.5252
2.0988
1.7894
1.5438
1.3380
1.1595
1.0004
0.8559
0.7226
0.5978
0.4796
0.3665
0.2572
0.1506
0.0455
-0.0591
-0.1644
-0.2717
-0.3828
-0.5000
-0.6269
-0.7699
-0.9419
-1.1811
7946.52
6900.00
6244.00
5749.00
5337.00
4977.00
4654.00
4360.00
4093.50
3854.50
3640.00
3448.50
3276.00
3119.00
2974.58
2840.00
2711.50
2588.00
2466.50
2345.00
2221.00
2091.30
1949.00
1782.00
1557.00
0.9614
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3847
0.3462
0.3078
0.2692
0.2307
0.1922
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385
e la poblacin no ciclnica =
(Error)2
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000
9000
9000
8000
8000
7000
7000
Q (m 3/s )
266787.8339
25921.0000
430336.0000
268324.0000
439569.0000
988036.0000
829921.0000
147456.0000
21462.2500
42230.2500
4356.0000
54522.2500
3136.0000
121.0000
56444.2564
27225.0000
49506.2500
30276.0000
9900.2500
25.0000
625.0000
19237.6900
14641.0000
484.0000
57121.0000
Eventos de diseo de la
DOBLEGUMBE
6000
6000
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000
1000
1000
0
0
-1.5
5
-1
-0.5
10
0
0
la poblacin ciclnica =
columna 7
z
-1
F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
Q (m3/s)
3,276.00
5,270.00
6,485.00
7,561.00
8,900.00
9,909.00
10,900.00
12,210.00
13,200.00
3.238550275
2.5251949408
2.0988093153
1.7894376587
1.5437714325
1.3380214184
1.1594534651
1.0004205007
0.8559409856
0.722559893
0.5977527554
0.4795866668
0.3665129206
0.2572306095
0.1505888878
0.0455085373
-0.059091174
-0.164373955
-0.271694745
-0.382767501
-0.499962003
-0.626901698
-0.76986942
-0.941938735
-1.181143141
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
5
-0.5
10
0
0
15
0.5
1
z
20
1.5
25
2
2.5
30
3
3.5
columna 8
columna 3
Q calculado Gasto ordenado
( m3/s)
( m3/s)
7946.5
6900
6244
5749
5337
4977
4654
4360
4093.5
3854.5
3640
3448.5
3276
3119
2974.58
2840
2711.5
2588
2466.5
2345
2221
2091.3
1949
1782
1557
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
sto ordenado
Tr
(aos)
26
13
8.6666666667
6.5
5.2
4.3333333333
3.7142857143
3.25
2.8888888889
2.6
2.3636363636
2.1666666667
2
1.8571428571
1.7333333333
1.625
1.5294117647
1.4444444444
1.3684210526
1.3
1.2380952381
1.1818181818
1.1304347826
1.0833333333
1.04
7947
6900
6244
5749
5337
4977
4654
4360
4093.5
3854.5
3640
3448.5
3276
3119
2974.58
2840
2711.5
2588
2466.5
2345
2221
2091.3
1949
1782
1557
Funcin de distribucin
NORMAL
Gastos
(m3/s)
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
Intervalo
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Media =
Desv. Est.=
Lim. Inf.
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
Lim. Sup.
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
3886.2
1825.9
Funcin de distribucin
Marca de
Clase
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=
LOGNORMAL
Intervalo
Lim. Inf.
Lim. Sup.
Marca de
Clase
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
=
=
Funcin de distribucin
suma=
8.162268844
0.460320639
GAMA
Intervalo
Lim. Inf.
Lim. Sup.
Marca de
Clase
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=
gg=
gg=
gg=
Funcin de distribucin
8.705733115
618.8364216
-1501.26473
GUMBEL
Intervalo
Lim. Inf.
Lim. Sup.
Marca de
Clase
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=
0.000598
2997.97
Funcin de distribucin
p=
DOBLEGUMBEL
Intervalo
Lim. Inf.
Lim. Sup.
Marca de
Clase
i
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ii
0
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
Si
1400
2800
4200
5600
7000
8400
700
2100
3500
4900
6300
7700
suma=
0.001200
2453.10
0.000707
5192.25
0.72
21-,k-1-m
2 parametros
3 parametros
4 parametros
=
m=
m=
m=
0.05
2
3
4
2 parametros
k-1-m=
2 parametros
3 parametros
k-1-m=
3 parametros
4 parametros
k-1-m=
4 parametros
20.95,3 =
20.95,2 =
20.95,1 =
7.81
5.99
3.84
Nmero
Observado
i
0
11
5
3
4
2
F(Si)
F(Ii)
( i- i)2/ i
0.0867
0.2760
0.5682
0.8260
0.9559
0.9933
0.0167
0.0867
0.2760
0.5682
0.8260
0.9559
1.7502
4.7327
7.3067
6.4451
3.2475
0.9337
1.7502
8.2996
0.7282
1.8415
0.1744
1.2178
25
24.4157
14.0117
Nmero
Observado
F(Si)
F(Ii)
( i- i)2/ i
i
0
11
5
3
4
2
0.0231
0.3126
0.6526
0.8455
0.9335
0.9712
0.0000
0.0231
0.3126
0.6526
0.8455
0.9335
0.5764
7.2380
8.4999
4.8227
2.1993
0.9427
0.5764
1.9553
1.4411
0.6889
1.4744
1.1860
25
Nmero
Observado
i
0
11
5
3
4
2
25
24.2789
F(Si)
F(Ii)
7.3221
( i- i)2/ i
CALCULAR
NO PASA !!!
OK !!!
Nmero
Observado
F(Si)
F(Ii)
( i- i)2/ i
i
0
11
5
3
4
2
0.0743
0.3245
0.6142
0.8097
0.9126
0.9612
0.0025
0.0743
0.3245
0.6142
0.8097
0.9126
1.7967
6.2527
7.2429
4.8877
2.5737
1.2138
1.7967
3.6043
0.6945
0.7290
0.7905
0.5092
25
23.9675
8.1241
Nmero
Observado
F(Si)
F(Ii)
( i- i)2/ i
i
0
11
5
3
4
2
0.0210
0.3729
0.6696
0.8330
0.9279
0.9717
0.0000
0.0210
0.3729
0.6696
0.8330
0.9279
0.5238
8.7993
7.4180
4.0834
2.3731
1.0938
0.5238
0.5504
0.7882
0.2874
1.1153
0.7508
25
24.2913
NO PASA !!!
4.0160
NO PASA !!!
Gastos
(m3/s)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
7430
7061
6900
6267
6000
5971
5565
4744
4240
4060
3706
3682
3220
3130
2737
2675
2489
2414
2367
2350
2246
2230
2070
1804
1796
Media =
Desv. Est.=
3904.7
1623.4
=
=
0.00059773
2997.96706
1 =
1 =
2 =
0.001200
2453.10
0.000707
5192.25
0.72
2 =
p=
Fo(xm)
NORMAL
F(xm)
0.9615
0.9231
0.8846
0.8462
0.8077
0.7692
0.7308
0.6923
0.6538
0.6154
0.5769
0.5385
0.5000
0.4615
0.4231
0.3846
0.3462
0.3077
0.2692
0.2308
0.1923
0.1538
0.1154
0.0769
0.0385
0.9739
0.9590
0.9506
0.9039
0.8765
0.8732
0.8211
0.6808
0.5768
0.5379
0.4607
0.4555
0.3576
0.3394
0.2646
0.2536
0.2221
0.2100
0.2027
0.2001
0.1845
0.1822
0.1600
0.1271
0.1262
0.0123
0.0359
0.0660
0.0577
0.0688
0.1040
0.0903
0.0116
0.0770
0.0775
0.1162
0.0830
0.1424
0.1221
0.1585
0.1311
0.1241
0.0976
0.0665
0.0307
0.0078
0.0283
0.0446
0.0501
0.0877
0.1585
OK!!
LOGNORMAL
F(xm)
D
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0169
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.0168
0.9447
0.9062
0.8678
0.8293
0.7908
0.7524
0.7139
0.6755
0.6370
0.5985
0.5601
0.5216
0.4832
0.4447
0.4062
0.3678
0.3293
0.2909
0.2524
0.2139
0.1755
0.1370
0.0986
0.0601
0.0216
0.9447
NO!
GAMMA
F(xm)
CALCULAR
GUMBEL
F(xm)
0.9317
0.9156
0.9075
0.8679
0.8469
0.8444
0.8061
0.7032
0.6213
0.5886
0.5195
0.5146
0.4166
0.3969
0.3107
0.2973
0.2578
0.2423
0.2327
0.2292
0.2086
0.2055
0.1753
0.1298
0.1286
0.0298
0.0075
0.0229
0.0217
0.0392
0.0752
0.0753
0.0109
0.0326
0.0268
0.0574
0.0239
0.0834
0.0647
0.1123
0.0873
0.0884
0.0654
0.0366
0.0015
0.0163
0.0516
0.0599
0.0529
0.0901
DOBLEGUMBEL
F(xm)
D
0.9455
0.9307
0.9231
0.8862
0.8667
0.8645
0.8298
0.7419
0.6754
0.6487
0.5892
0.5848
0.4867
0.4643
0.3540
0.3350
0.2764
0.2525
0.2376
0.2323
0.1998
0.1949
0.1478
0.0815
0.0798
0.1123
OK!!
0.0160
0.0076
0.0385
0.0400
0.0590
0.0952
0.0990
0.0496
0.0216
0.0333
0.0123
0.0464
0.0133
0.0028
0.0691
0.0497
0.0698
0.0552
0.0316
0.0015
0.0075
0.0411
0.0324
0.0046
0.0414
0.0990
OK!!
DN =
1. 36
=
N
DN =
1. 36
=
N
0.272
5%
Tr (aos)
2
5
10
20
50
100
200
500
1000
F(x)
0.5
0.8
0.9
0.95
0.98
0.99
0.995
0.998
0.999
Normal-2
Gamma
Lognormal
Gumbel
Q (m /s)
3,885.94
5,421.21
6,224.29
6,887.24
7,633.09
8,130.21
8,585.10
9,136.30
9,522.91
Q (m /s)
3,682.44
5,328.71
6,314.30
7,196.05
8,264.72
9,023.55
9,751.51
9,751.51
10,677.66
Q (m /s)
3,682.44
5,328.71
6,314.30
7,196.05
8,264.72
9,023.55
9,751.51
10,677.66
11,356.71
Q (m3/s)
3,611.14
5,507.36
6,762.82
7,967.09
9,525.89
10,693.99
11,857.83
13,393.30
14,553.77
DobleGumbel
Q (m3/s)
3,276.00
5,270.00
6,485.00
7,561.00
8,900.00
9,909.00
10,900.00
12,210.00
13,200.00