[STAT2303

WEEK 01: BASIC PROBABILITY] 1

Agenda:

1. Attendance Quiz
2. Events: no we are not
going to a concert.
3. Notation: Yes you
have to know this stuff.
4. Computational
Probability: its easier
than computational
origami.
5. Limits of Probability:
I am about pushed past
mine.
6. Interpreting Events:
I hope you know your
German.


Homework:

1. Read pages 3-5 Notes
2. Read pages 149-163
book

I.

Chapter 4.2 Basic Concepts of Probability

A.

Definitions to know
1.
EventAny collection of results or outcomes of
a procedure.
2.
Simple EventOutcome or event that can not
be broken down into any smaller event. (think atoms)

3.
Sample SpaceMathematical space that
consists of all possible simple events.

Example 01: Use b to denote the simple event of having a baby
that is a boy, and g to denote the simple event of having a baby
girl.

Event
Example off an
Sample Space
Event
Single
Birth

1 girl (simple event)

{b,g}

3 Births

2 boys and 1 girl

bbg, bgb, or gbb

{bbb, bbg, bgb, bgg,

gbg, gbb, ggb, ggg}

B.

Notation
1.

P denotes a probability

2.

A, B, C letters we assign to specific events

3.
P(A), P(B), P(C)the probability of event A, B, or
C occurring.

C.

Computational Probability
1.

Classical Approach
a)
This approach requires equally likely
outcomes (ie .50/.50, .333, .333. .333 etc)
b)
If a given procedure has (n) different
equally likely outcomes, then the probably is:

(1.1)

#_of _ ways _ A_can_occur

P(A) =

#_of
_different
_
simple
_events
!

Example 02 Classical Approach: When three

children are born, the sample space is: {bbb, bbg,
bgb, bgg, gbb, gbg, ggb, ggg}. What is the
probability of having all three children of the
same gender?

Sample Space

bbb bbg bgb bgg gbb gbg ggb ggg
P(A) 1/8 1/8 1/8 1/8 1/8 1/8 1/8 1/8

The only ways to have all three children the
same gender is (bbb) an d(ggg) we can see the
probability of all boys P(bbb)=1/8, and the
probability of having all girls is P(ggg)=1/8 so
adding the two together we have:

Let A=have all three children of same gender.
1 1 2 1
P(A) = P(bbb)+ P( ggg) = + = =
8 8 8 4
!

D.

Relative Frequency Approach

1.
You observe outcomes of a
procedure you conduct.

2.
Then the approximate
probability is given by:

#_ pf _times _ A_occured
P(A) =

#_of _times _event _ was _repeated
!

Example 03 Relative Frequency
A recent Harris Poll of 1010 adults in the United
States showed that 202 of the adults smoked.
Find the probability that a randomly selected
adult in the U.S smokes.

Let A=smoker
202
P(A) =
= 0.200
1010
!

*notice that picking a non-smoker vs. picking a
smoker are not equally likely events, because
there are more non-smokers vs. smokers.

E.

Law of Large Numbers

1.
As an experiment is repeated
over and over, the relative
frequency probability of an event
tends to approach the theoretical
probability.

F.

Interpreting Events
1.
An event is considered
unlikely (for now) if its probability is
very small, less than or equal to
0.05.
2.
UnlikelyEvent with a small
probability of less than or equal to
0.05.
3.
Unusual or Extremethe
number of outcomes is far above or
far below theoretical values.

**If time is left, do in class worksheet, if not send
it home as homework.


Lesson Reflections:

[STAT2303 WEEK 01: BASIC PROBABILITY] 3

II.

Section 4.3 Addition Rule

A.

Definitions:

1.
Compound Eventany
event combining two or more simple
events.

Stat
Student

2.
ComplementIf an event is
denoted by A, then its complement
is denoted by (~A) meaning not A.

B.

3.
Disjoint SetsEvents A and
B are disjoint if they can not happen
at the same time.

Example 4.2.1:

Example of Disjoint events

A = is a registered democrat
B = is a registered republican

A
Registered
Democrat

B
Registered
Republican

Example of Non-disjoint events
Randomly selecting someone taking a
statistics course.

Randomly selecting someone who is female.
(Someone can be both)

Formal Addition Rule

!P(A B) = P(A)+ P(B) P(A B)

3.
Caution: Errors made when
applying the addition rule usually
happen because of double
counting. One indicator that you
have double counted is that the
probability is greater than 1.

C.

Female

2.
If two sets are disjoint then
!P(A B) = 0 and
!P(A B) = P(A)+ P(B) 0

Randomly selecting someone

who is a registered Democrat.
Randomly selecting someone
who is a registered Republican.
(someone cant be both)

Stat Student
And
Female

1.

Complementary Events
1.
!A and !A are mutually
exclusive, that is, they are disjoint
sets. Thus we can say the following:

!P(A)+ P(A) = 1
2.
This result leads to the
following three results:
P(A)+ P(A) = 1

P(A) = 1 P(A)
!P(A) = 1 P(A)
Example 04 Devilish Belief:
Based on data from a Harris Poll, the probability
of randomly selecting someone who believes in
the devil is 0.6, so P(believes in devil)=0.600
Find the probability for selecting someone who
does not believe in the devil.

III.

Section 4.4 Multiplication Rule

A.

Formal Multiplication Rule

1.
!P(AandB) = P(A)i P(B | A)
P(A and B) = P(event A occurs first,
and event B happens second)
2.
P(A|B)=probability that
event B occurs after it is assumed
that event A has already occurred.

B.

Definitions
1.
Two events A and B are
independent of the occurrence of
one does not effect the probability
of the occurrence of the other. If
events A and B are not independent,
then they are dependent.

**Dont think that just because one event
depends on another that one event causes the
other. This is the error of causation.

C.

Sampling Methods
1.
Sampling with replacement,
selections are independent events.
2.
Sampling without
replacement, selections are
dependent events.

3.
When calculations with
sampling are very cumbersome and
the sample size is no more than 5%
the size of the population, treat the
selections as being independent.

Example 05: Airport Baggage Scale
Airport baggage scales can show that bags are
overweight and high additional fees can be
imposed. The New York City Department of
Consumer Affairs checked all 810 scales at JFK
and La Guardia, and 102 scales were found to be
defective and ordered out of use. (source: New
York Times).

If 2 of the 810 scales are randomly

selected with replacement, find the
probability the are both defective.

P(Both Scales Defective) =
P(1st Scale defective and 2nd Scale Defective)
P(1st Scale Defective) P(2nd Scale Defective)
102 102
=
i
= 0.0159
! 810 810

If 2 of the 810 scales are randomly
selected without replacement, find the
probability that they are both defective.

102 101
=
i
= 0.0157
! 810 809

[STAT2303 WEEK 01: BASIC PROBABILITY] 5

B.

IV. Section 4.5 Conditional

Probability
A.

At Least one
1.
At least one means one or
more.

2.
The compliment of getting at
least one particular event is that you
get no occurrences.

Let A = Getting at least one of some event

Then !A = getting none of the event

Find !P(A) =probability A does not occur.

Subtract the result from 1.

Example 06: Topford Development supplies
DVD in lots of 50, and has a reported defective
rate of 0.05%, so the probability of an individual
disk being defective is 0.005. It follows that the
probability of a disk being good is 1-0.005 =
0.995. What is the probability of getting at least
one defective disk in a lot of 50?

Step 1: Let A=at lest 1 of the 50 disks is defective.
Step 2: Identify the event that is the
Complement of A.

!A = not getting at least 1 defective among 50

= all 50 disks are good

Step
by evaluating
= all disks are good 3:
Find
the probability of the complement
= 0.9950.995...0.995


50
=
(0.995)
=
0.778
!
Step 4: Find P(A) by evaluating !1 P(A)

P(A)+ P(A) = 1

P(A) = 1 P(A)

!= 1 0.778 = 0.222

In a lot of 50 DVDs, there is a 0.222 probability of
getting at least 1 defective DVD.

Conditional Probability
1.
A conditional probability of
an event is a probability obtained
with the additional information that
some other event has already
occurred. !P(B | A) denotes the
conditional probability of event B
occurring, given that event A has
already occurred. !P(B | A) can be
found by:

P(B | A) =
!

P(A B)

P(A)

Example 07: Pre-Employment Drug Screening

Pre-Employment Screening

Positive Test Negative Test
Results
Results
Subject uses
44
6
Drugs
Subject does
90
860
Not use drugs


If 1 of the 1000 test subjects is randomly
selected, find the probability that the subject
has a positive test result given that the
subject actually uses drugs.


A = Subject uses drugs = 44 + 6 = 50
B = Positive test results given Subject uses
drugs = 44


P(A B) 44
P(B | A) =
=
= 0.88
P(A)
50
!

Find the probability the subject actually used
drugs given the subject had a positive test
result.

44
P(A|B) =
= 0.328
134
!