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INTRODUCTION
TO
PROBABILITY
3.1 INTRODUCTION
2. An Outcome
- The result of a single trial of a probability experiment.
3. A Sample Space
- The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment.
- Some sample spaces for various probability experiments are shown below
EXPERIMENT
Toss one coin
SAMPLE SPACES
Head, Tail
Roll a die
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
True, False
Example 1
Find the sample space for rolling two dice.
Die 2
Die1
1
2
3
4
5
6
(1,1)
(2,1)
(3,1)
(4,1)
(5,1)
(6,1)
(1,2)
(2,2)
(3,2)
(4,2)
(5,2)
(6,2)
(1,3)
(2,3)
(3,3)
(4,3)
(5,3)
(6,3)
(1,4)
(2,4)
(3,4)
(4,4)
(5,4)
(6,4)
(1,5)
(2,5)
(3,5)
(4,5)
(5,5)
(6,5)
(1,6)
(2,6)
(3,6)
(4,6)
(5,6)
(6,6)
Example 2
Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.
Solution:
There are two genders, male and female and each child could be either
gender. Hence, there are eight possibilities.
BBB
BBG
BGB
GBB
GGG GGB
GBG
BGG
4. A Tree Diagram
-
Example 3
3rd child
2nd child
1st child
G
B
Outcome
s
BBB
BBG
BGB
BGG
GBB
GBG
GGB
GGG
Example 4
You are at a carnival. One of the carnival games asks you to pick a door and
then pick a curtain behind the door. There are 3 doors and 4 curtains behind
each door. Use a tree diagram to find the sample spaces for all the possible
choices.
Outcomes
Curtain
Door
A
B
C
D
A
B
1, A
1, B
1, C
2, C
2, D
3, A
3, B
3, C
3, D
D
A
B
C
D
1, D
2, A
2, B
5. Venn Diagram
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
developed by John Venn and are used in set theory and symbolic logic.
The symbol represents the union of two events and P(A B) corresponds
to A OR B.
Venn diagram representing two events; A Venn diagram representing three events;
and B
A, B and C
6. An Event
- Consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.
- An event can be :
a)
b)
Simple event
2.
3.
4.
The sum of the probabilities of all the outcomes in the sample space
is 1.
Assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur
which means that all the events have the same probability of occurring.
P( E )
n( E )
n(S )
e.g.: When a single die is rolled, each outcome has the same probability of
occurring. Since there are six outcomes, each outcome has a probability of
1
.
6
2.Empirical Probability
-
Is based on observation.
or denoted as,
P( E )
f
n
Example 5
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
Frequency
15
32
56
19
5
127
3. Subjective Probability
- Uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate, employing
opinions and inexact information.
- This guess is based on the persons experience and evaluation of a solution.
e.g.: A physician might say that, on the basis of her diagnosis, there is a 30%
chance the patient will need an operation.
Example 6
A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera
B
A
and
B
Intersection of A and B
Union event
Example 7
A = event that a family owns a DVD player
B = event that a family owns a digital camera
Example 8
Shaded area
gives the union of
events A and B.
A senior citizens centre has 300 members. Of them, 140 are male, 210 take at least
one medicine on a permanent basis and 95 are male and take at least one medicine
on a permanent basis. Draw a Venn diagram to describe,
a)
b)
c)
d)
the intersection of the events male and take at least one medicine on
a permanent basis.
the union of the events male and take at least one medicine on a
permanent basis.
the intersection of the events female and take at least one medicine
on a permanent basis.
the union of the events female and take at least one medicine on a
permanent basis.
Solution:
Take at least one
medicine
Male
45
95
115
Female
45
Example 9
Rolling a die and getting a 6, and then rolling a second die and getting a 3.
Note:
The outcome of the rolling the first die does not affect the probability
outcome of rolling the second die.
Dependent event
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
When the outcome or occurrence of the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in such a way that the probability is changed, the
events are said to be dependent events.
College
graduate, G
Not a college
graduate, G
Male, M
20
Female, F
27
13
Total
11
29
40
Total
1. Joint Probability
The probability of the intersection of events.
Written by either P(A B) or P(AB).
Example 10
(Refer Table 1)
b)
c)
the probability that this employee is a male and not a college graduate
d)
the probability that this employee is a female and not a college graduate
2. Marginal Probability
The probability of a single event without consideration of any event.
Also called as simple probability.
Named so as they calculated in the margins of the table (divide the
corresponding totals for the row or column by the grand total).
Example 11
(Refer Table 1)
If one of those employees is selected at random for membership on the
employee management committee, find the probabilities for each of the
followings:
a) the chosen employee is a male
10
P A | B
P A B
P B
P B | A
P A B
P A
Example
(Refer Table 1)
12
=
b)
the chosen employee is not a college graduate given that this employee is
female
P(G | F) =
=
=
11
Example 13
A person owns a collection of 30 CDs, of which 5 are country music.
a)
2 CDs are selected at random and with replacement. Find the probability
that the second CD is country music given that the first CD is country
music.
P(CM |CM) =
=
b)
This time the selection made is without replacement. Find the probability
that the second CD is country music given that the first CD is country
music.
P(CM |CM) =
12
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time
(they have no outcomes in common).
There are two addition rules to determine either the two events are mutually
exclusive or not mutually exclusive.
Addition Rule 1
When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability that A or
B will occur is
P(A)
P(B)
Addition Rule 2
When two events A and B are not mutually exclusive, then
P(A and B)
P(A)
P(B)
13
Example 14
Consider the following events when rolling a die:
A = an even number is obtained = 2,4,6
B = an odd number is obtained = 1,3,5
Are events A and B are mutually exclusive?
Solution:
Yes, the two events are mutually exclusive since event A and event B have no
common element,
A
1
4
6
Example 15
Determine which events are mutually exclusive and which are not when a
single die is rolled.
a) Getting a 3 and getting an odd number.
Answer: Not Mutually Exclusive
b) Getting a number greater than 4 and getting a number less than 4.
Answer: Mutually Exclusive
c) Getting an odd number and getting a number less than 4.
Answer: Not Mutually Exclusive
Example 16
There are 8 nurses and 5 physicians in a hospital unit; 7 nurses and 3 physicians
are females. If a staff person is selected, find the probability that the subject is a
nurse or a male.
Solution:
Staff
Nurses, N
Physicians, PY
Total
P(N or M)
Female, F
7
3
Male, M
1
2
Total
8
5
10
13
= P(N M)
=
14
Solution:
P(science instructor or math instructor)
=
Example 18
A grocery store employs cashiers, stock clerks and deli personnel. The
distribution of employees according to marital status is shown here.
Marital Status
Married
Not Married
Cashiers
8
5
Clerks
12
15
Deli Personnel
3
2
b.
c.
15
Or
P( B | A ) = P(B)
Multiplication Rule 1
When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring
P(A B) = P(A)
P(B)
Example
19
A box contains 3 red balls, 2 blue balls, and 5 white balls. A ball is selected and its
colour noted. Then it is replaced. A second ball is selected and its colour noted.
Find the probability of each of these:
a) selecting two blue balls.
P (blueblue) = P(blue) P(blue)
b)
c)
Example 20
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
16
P (buyer)
On the other hand, two events, A and B are dependent when the
occurrence of the event A changes the probability of the occurrence of
event B.
When two events are dependent, another multiplication rule can be used to
find the probability.
Multiplication Rule 2
When two events are dependent, the probability of both occurring
P (A B) = P(A) P( B | A )
Example
In
21a scientific study there are 8 tigresses, 5 of which are pregnant. If 3 are
selected at random without replacement, find the probability that:
a)
1st tigress
2nd tigress
12stndtigress
tigress
4
7
5
8
3
8
PG
3
7
5
7
PG
2
7
PG
PG
3rd tigress
Outcomes
3
PG PG, PG,PG
6
3
6
4 PG
PG, PG,
6 PG
PG,, PG
2
PG,,
6 4
6 PG , PG, PG
PG
2
, PG,
6 5
6 PG ,, PG
1
6
PG ,,
PG
PG
PG
P(PGPGPG) =
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
17
b)
Example 22
Find the complement of each event.
a) Rolling a die and getting a 4
Answer:
b)
c)
18
P( E ) 1 P( E )
P( E ) 1 P( E )
Or
Or
P( E ) P( E ) 1
P(E)
P(E)
P(E)
P(S)=1
Example
In a group of 2000 taxpayers, 400 have been audited by the IRS at least once. If
23
one taxpayer is randomly selected from this group, what are the probability of
that taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS?
Solution:
Let, A = the selected taxpayer has been audited by the IRS at least once
A = the selected taxpayer has never been audited by the IRS
The multiplication rules can be used with the complementary event rule to
simplify solving probability problems involving at least.
Example 24
In a department store there are 120 customers, 90 of whom will buy at least one
item. If 4 customers are selected at random, one by one, find the probability that
at least one of the customers will but at least one item. Would you consider this
event likely to occur? Explain.
Solution:
Let C = at least one customer will buy at least one item
C = none of the customers will buy at least one item
=
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
19
=
Yes, this event is most likely to occur (certain event) since the probability
almost 1
NOTE: The following examples are based on the overall understanding of the entire
probability concepts
Example 25
A random sample of 400 college students was asked if college athletes should be
paid. The following table gives a two-way classification of the responses.
Student athlete, A
Student non-athlete, A
Total
a)
Should be paid,
D
90
Should not be
paid, D
10
Total
100
210
90
300
300
100
400
If one student is randomly selected from these 400 students, find the probability
that this student
i. Is in favour of paying college athletes
P(D) =
ii. Favours paying college athletes given that the student selected is a nonathlete
P(D | A ) =
iv.
20
b)
Are the events student athlete and should be paid independent? Are they
mutually exclusive? Explain why or why not.
P(AD)
Since, P(AD) P(A) P(D), those two events are not independent
(dependent).
And since P(AD) 0, those two events are not mutually exclusive
Example 26
A screening test for a certain disease is prone to giving false positives of false
negatives. If a patient being tested has the disease, the probability that the test
indicates a false negative is 0.13. If the patient does not have the disease, the
probability that the test indicates a false positive is 0.10. Assume that 3% of the
patients being tested actually have the disease. Suppose that one patient is
chosen at random and tested. Find the probability that;
Let
D
D
N
N
Joint Probability
0.03
0.97
0.87
P(D)
0.13
P(D)
0.10
P()
0.90
P()
21
b) This patient does not have the disease and tests positive
P( D N) =
d) This patient does not have the disease and tests negative
P( D
) =
e) This patient has the disease given that he/she tests positive
P(D | N) =
EXERCISE 1
1.
2.
For each of the following, indicate whether the type of probability involved is an
example of classical probability, empirical probability or subjective probability:
a)
b)
Italy will win soccers World Cup the next time the competition is held.
c)
d)
the train taking a commuter to work will be more than 10 minutes late.
22
4.
Refer to question 2 above. List all the outcomes included in each of the following
events and mention which are simple and which are compound events.
a)
b)
c)
d)
b)
c)
d)
5.
88% of American children are covered by some type of health insurance. If four
children are selected at random, what is the probability that none are covered?
6.
A box of nine golf gloves contains two left-handed gloves and seven right-handed
gloves.
a)
If two gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what is
the probability that both gloves selected will be right-handed?
b)
If three gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what
is the probability that all three will be left-handed?
c)
If three gloves are randomly selected from the box without replacement, what
is the probability that at least one glove will be right-handed?
7.
A financial analyst estimates that the probability that the economy will experience a
recession in the next 12 months is 25%. She also believes that if the economy
encounters recession, the probability that her mutual fund will increase in value is
20%. If there is no recession, the probability that the mutual fund will increase in
value is 75%. Find the probability that the mutual funds value will increase.
8.
A car rental agency currently has 44 cars available. 18 of which have a GPS
navigation system. One of the 44 cars is selected at random, find the probability that
this car,
a) has a GPS navigation system.
b) does not have a GPS navigation system.
23
A recent study of 300 patients found that of 100 alcoholic patients, 87 had elevated
cholesterol levels, and 200 non-alcoholic patients, 43 had elevated cholesterol
levels.
a) If a patient
following,
i.
ii.
iii.
Homeowner
824
176
Renter
681
319
Are the two events, driving to work and the respondent is a homeowner,
independent?
12. Due to the devaluation which occurred in country PQR, the consumers of that
country were buying fewer products than before the devaluation. Based on a study
conducted, the results were reported as the following:
Brands
Purchased
Same
Changed
Same
14
82
More
24
8
24
c)
d)
e)
given that a consumer changed the brands they purchased, what then is the
probability that the consumer purchased fewer products than before?
it is a non-confirming bottle?
b)
c)
d)
suppose you know that the bottle was produced on machine I, what is the
probability that it is non-conforming?
14. Each year, ratings are compiled concerning the performance of new cars during the
first 90 days of use. Based on a study, the probability that the new car needs a
warranty repair is 0.04, the probability that the car manufactured by Country ABC is
0.60, and the probability that the new car needs a warranty repair and was
manufactured by Country ABC is 0.025.
a)
What is the probability that the car needs a warranty repair given that Country
ABC manufactured it?
b)
What is the probability that the car needs a warranty repair given that Country
ABC did not manufacture it?
c)
Are need for a warranty repair and country manufacturing the car statistically
independent?
15. CASTWAY is a direct selling company which has 350 authorized sale agents from all
over the country. It is known that 168 of them are male. 40% of male sale agents
has permanent job while half of female sale agents do not have permanent job.
a)
b)
EXERCISE 2
1.
N
Given P(M) =M0.53, P(N) = 0.58 and P(MN)
= 0.33.
25
The organizer has organized three games during the Lams family day. There are
run with one leg (G), fill water in the bottle (B) and tug & war (T). 40 participants had
participated in these games. Below is the Vann Diagram shown the number of
participants for every game during the family day.
2a
7
2a
5
T
a) Based on the Diagram above, find:
i. a value.
ii. The number of participant who participate in tug & war only.
iii. The number of participant who participate in one game only.
iv. The number of participant who participate more than one game.
b) If one participant has been selected at random, find the probability the
participant;
i.
Participate in fill water in the bottle game and run with one leg
game only.
ii. Participate in all games
iii. Participate in tug & war game given he/she has participated in
run with one leg game.
3.
Harmony Cultural Club has organized three competitions; singing, dance and act
contests. The competition has been organized during the different time and each
contestant can participate more than one contest. Below is the Van Diagram for 100
contestants during these competitions.
singing
act
20
12
18
a
2a
Chapter 3: Introduction to Probability
15
dance
26
4. Xpress Link is a courier company with 300 staff with the qualification level shows
in the Van diagram below. Some of the staffs hold more than one qualification.
bachelor degree
36
2k
diploma
4k
master degree
50
102
Given P(A) = 0.3, P(B) = 0.6 and P (A B) = 0.2. Draw the Venn diagram to
represents this statement. Then, find:
a) P(B)
b) P(A B)
c) P(B|A)
d) P(A B)
e) Are A and B is mutually exclusive? Prove it.
27
5% from the total radio sales at the Noras electric shop will be returned back for
repair by the buyer because the malfunctions of the radio in first six month. Given
two radios has been sold last week.
a) Draw the tree diagram to represent the above event.
b) Find the probability that:
i. both radios will be return back for repair
ii. none of the radio has been returned back for repair
iii. one of the radio will be returned back for repair
iv. the second radio will be returned back for repair given the first
radio had been return for repair.
c) Are the events returning back both the radios for repair is independent
event? Prove it.
7.
There are three shipping company in Baltravia country; company R, S and T. These
three companies have a cargo ship and passenger ship. Table below shows the
information about the companies.
Company
R
S
T
Total
Ship Type
Cargo
20
40
30
90
Passenger
20
20
40
80
Total
40
60
70
A marketing manager wants to promote a new product of his company named Osom.
He has two marketing plan which are plan A and plan B. The probability he will
choose plan A is 1/3. The probability he does not succeed to promote the product
when using plan A and plan B is 1/5 and 1/6.
a) Draw the tree diagram to represent the situation
b) What is the probability that he does not succeed to promote the product?
c) If he fails to promote the product, what is the probability he has used the
plan B?
9.
Two shooters have been selected to represent Malaysia in USIA game. The
probability the first shooter bid the target is and the probability second shooter
miss the target is 1/3. The game will be started by first shooter and followed by the
second shooter. Draw the tree diagram to represent the events. Then, find the
probability:
a) first shooter and second shooter bid the target
b) only one shooter bids the target
28
29
Group: _________
TUTORIAL CHAPTER 3
QUESTION 1
Nora Kindergarten would like to conduct a Sport Day. TABLE 1 shows the number of
children based on their sports group.
TABLE 1
Group
Tuah (T)
Jebat (J)
Lekiu (L)
Total
Boy (B)
60
30
50
140
Girl (G)
70
10
20
100
Total
130
40
70
240
a. If a child is selected at random, what is the probability that the child is:
i.
30
31
ii.
32
Based on a(i), if the students were randomly selected, what is the probability that a
student:
i.
ii.
33