Powerball Meets the HyperGeometric Distribution

Post Simulation Analysis

Question 4: I changed my answers each time I played. I dont think that one has a
greater chance of winning by keeping the same numbers each time. Each combination of
numbers has a 1 in 292 million chance of winning. If you keep the same numbers for
another round, you still only have a 1 in a 292 million chance, compared to choosing a
different random set of numbers. This occurs because each draw is independent of the
last.
Question 5: The class results compared to the theoretical results, were very close. They
were only around 2 percent off, which is a very small margin. For example, in the class
results, 98.0% of the students didnt win any prizes, and in the theoretical results is shows
that 96.0% dont win any prizes. Also, only 2% of the class had any prize, compared to the
expected value of 4%. The biggest difference in the results, is that in the class, no one got
better than a WWLLL N scenario. Therefore, there were a lot of zeros in the probability
results, however, the chances of getting anything better than that scenario are very low
and we would probably need a larger sample size to get closer numbers.
Question 6:
i.

WWWLL P

WHERE:
10 represents the combinations that can be done (5 choose 3), i.e. it doesnt
necessarily need to be in the order of WWWLL, it could also be LLWWW for
example
5x4x3 represent the amount of winning balls left, without replacement
64x63 represent the amount of losing balls left, without replacement
69x68x67x66x65 represent the total sample space
1/26 the probability of picking the powerball
ii.

WWLLL N

WHERE:
10 represents the combinations that can be done (5 choose 2), i.e. it doesnt
necessarily need to be in the order of WWLLL, it could also be LLLWW for
example
5x4 represent the amount of winning balls left, without replacement
64x63x62 represent the amount of losing balls left, without replacement

69x68x67x66x65 represent the total sample space

25/26 the probability of not picking the powerball

Question 7: The way the lottery is structured allows one to think that they have a better
chance at winning since the probability of getting the powerball went down. This allowed
players to have a better chance at winning the $4 and $7 sub-prizes. This looks more
attractive than choosing one number between 1 and 292 million.
Question 8: The person bought 5000 powerball tickets with 5000 unique sets of numbers.
The probability that they win is:

Total number of tickets

5000
1
=
=
Total sample space
292,201,338 58440
The new probability is 1 in a 58440. This is still a very low probability for a $10000
investment. This probability is closest to having one ticket and getting WWWWL N, which
has a probability of 1 in a 36525.
Question 9: Summating all the prize probabilities gives you: 0.0402. This means that the
odds of winning any prize, is a 1 in a 24.87 chance (or 1 in a 25 chance for convenience).
This means that if one plays the lottery 25 times, one would only win a prize one time.
This prize could be anywhere from $4 to Jackpot (much more likely to be $4 though).
Question 10: Assuming a player buys 292,201,338 tickets, the expectation of how much
he is supposed to win is as follows:
Jackpot

100 million

500 million

1.5 billion

Amount Won

193,466,048.00

593,466,048.00

1,593,466,048.00

Amount Spent

584,402,676.00

584,402,676.00

584,402,676.00

-390,936,628.00

9,063,372.00

1,009,063,372.00

Net winnings

Therefore, if one were to buy 292,201,338 tickets and the jackpot is 100 million, one would
lose $390,936,628. If the jackpot is 500 million, then one would win $9,063,372. If the
jackpot is 1.5 billion, one would win $1,009,063,372.
*The calculations regarding the problem were done in the uploaded excel spreadsheet, on
a separate tab on the bottom.
Question 11: The probability of winning would decrease dramatically, but the probability
of winning the powerball decreases from a 1/45 to a 1/26 chance. This creates the idea
that the probability of winning the jackpot is lower, or at least allows one to believe that
they have a better chance of winning any random prize e.g. the $4 prize of getting just the
powerball. Also, since there are less odds of winning, the jackpot prizes have gone much

higher. This makes a lot more people want to play because although the odds are terribly
small, there is still a chance they might win the money.
Question 12: This assignment is the first time Ive ran numbers regarding a lottery. I was
shocked to see how small the odds are. I believe I had heard of close numbers before,
nonetheless, Ive heard of people whove won lotteries so I assumed the chances were
much higher. It was a learning experience to see how the chances could be calculated. I
think the most interesting thing to me was seeing how the odds of winning a small prize
was still very low, yet the prize was so small. You jump from 1.5 billion dollars, to 1 million
dollars, to 100 dollars. And its crazy how it is still very hard to win those 100 dollars!
I was impacted by the amount of money currently in the jackpot, and on how many people
play. Although, I must admit that if my chances were 1 in 292 million, but all I had to do
was pay 2 dollars to maybe win 1.5 billion dollars, or even 1 million dollars, I would be very
tempted. Thats how much money I spend on a soda. Its not a big investment for the
possibility of so much money. I think thats how most people think though, and that is why
the jackpot is so large.
I am also impressed with how much the lottery odds change from changing from 45
options to 69. Of course, its obvious that the odds are less, but I didnt imagine it getting
lowered so many million. I am impressed with the people who make the lottery and their
ability to tug at human psychology and emotions.
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