FX TRADING CAPITAL MARKETS

DAILY COMMENTARY

18.10.2013

HEADLINES*

Contact:

Christian Eggers
- BOJ Gov Kuroda says will continue with QE as long as necessary to maintain inflation target in stable manner
Capital Markets Structuring & Trading
- China Q3 GDP rises by +7,8 % y/y as expected
Tel.: +49 (0)431 900 25514
- PBoC fixes CNY at fresh record high of 6,1372 vs USD
- Jon Hilsenrath, WSJ, says FED unlikely to trim bond buys in October
Disclaimer:
- RBA Gov Stevens says progress but daunting task ahead in global financial reform > lower AUD
will help
Information
andeconomy,
statements contained in this document are based on either thorough research by HSH
higher AUD not sustainable
Nordbank AG or on sources that are considered reliaFLOWS*
ble but cannot be verified. Details from external
sources are checked for plausibility.
not
PAIR
INTEREST
BIDS They areOFFERS
scrutinized for accuracy. Although every effort is made
EURUSD
underpinned on dovish turn in FED expectations/declining US yields
to ensure correctness, HSH Nordbank AG cannot be
USDJPY
Japanese importers bids remain on dips to o/n lows with stops senn mixedheld
subresponsible for completeness, status, or accuracy
97,70 and exporter offers ahead of 99,00
of information.
Information in HSH Nordbank AG publications are not
MARKET MOVING DATA / EVENTS*
sufficient basis for important economic decisions. They
represent non-bindingEXPECTED
interpretations of markets
and
CET
COUNTRY/RELEASE
PREVIOUS
products
at
the
time
of
publication.
They
do
not
14:30
CAD
core CPI (BoC) y/y Sep.
1,4
1,3
represent legally binding offers.
16:00
US
Leading indicators m/m Sep.
0,6 Information contained
0,7
in this document is not substitute for individual advice.
n/a
US
FED speeches by Dudley, Evans, Stein and Tarullo
HSH Nordbank AG cannot be held responsible for any
loss howsoever arising from any use of this document
or its contents.
This is a marketing communication. The document has
not been prepared in accordance with legal require% CHANGE
ments designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibi1,50
1,20
1,18
tion on dealing ahead of the dissemination of invest1,01
0,94
0,91
0,88
ment research.
1,00
0,52

0,50

0,16

0,08

0,03

DAILY

0,10

0,09

0,02

0,00
-0,04

-0,50

-0,06

WEEKLY

-0,09

-0,14-0,17

-0,37

-0,41

MONTHLY

-1,00
-1,50

-1,28

EURUSD

EURJPY

EURCHF

EURGBP

EURNOK

EURSEK

EURPLN

4,00

3,34

3,00

1,00

0,16

0,08

0,14

0,02

1,77

1,69

1,50

2,00

0,00

2,05

0,14

0,00
-1,00

-0,60

-0,23

-0,07

-0,34

-1,15

-2,00

USDJPY

HSH Nordbank AG

USDCHF

-0,04

-0,30
-1,18 -1,37

USDNOK

-0,52

-0,06

-0,17

-1,12

USDSEK

USDCAD

GBPUSD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Daily Commentary | October 18, 2013

Page 1

CHART-TECHNIQUE
EURUSD

USDJPY

EURJPY

EURCHF

EURGBP

EURPLN

GOLD

1,3791
1,3733
1,3686
1,3566
1,3458

99,50
98,71
98,01
97,44
96,96

134,35
134,13
134,11
133,51
133,11

1,2397
1,2369
1,2345
1,2312
1,2284

0,8515
0,8489
0,84565
0,8443
0,8424

4,1858
4,1767
4,1715
4,1592
4,1508

1355,0
1336,7
1322,0
1287,4
1256,4

50% Fibo of

bullish close

dip contained

squeezed

Sep low of at

upside

latest 96,5599,01 bull

back above
May top

by 200d MA
at 1,2320

between Fibo
sup at 0,8421

4,1432

accelerated
after Doji from

R II
RI
SPOT
SI
S II

76,4% Fibo of
1,4248-1,2042
TECHNICALS bear wave at
1,3727 in sight

wave at 97,78

and Fibo res

Wednesday

at 0,9492
Bullish
OUTLOOK

Bearish

Bullish in

Vulnerable

against small
Fibo support

sympathy
with EURUSD

to bearish
roll-over

Sideways

Bearish bias

Bullish

below 200d
MA (4,1985)

against 55d MA
at 1340,70

> 200d MA

though seriously

at 97,14

oversold now

FX-MACROSCOPE
30 DAY

CYCLE

CORRELATION

% CHANGE

BASKET

OF DAILY LOG-RETURNS

YESTERDAY

-0,09%

EURUSD

EURJPY

SEKEUR

AUDUSD

CADUSD

LCOc1

.SPX

1,04%
0,19%
0,15%
0,62%
0,32%
-1,59%
0,67%
-2,84%

0,4297
-0,0499
0,0354
0,3792
0,4440
0,4953
0,3420
0,6306

0,2045
0,2661
0,3859
0,5475
-0,0311
0,2522
-0,1477

0,2956
0,0366
0,1381
-0,2173
0,4489
-0,5471

0,3952
0,2785
-0,3458
0,1787
-0,3752

0,6311
-0,1596
0,5195
0,0571

-0,0773
0,5356
-0,0458

0,1336
0,3237

0,0023

EURUSD
EURJPY
CURRENCY SEKEUR
AUDUSD
CADUSD
COMMODITY BRENT
STOCKS S&P500
UST 10y Yield
YIELD

US10YT=RR

Equally weighted basket of

CYCLE-BASKET_daily
148

EURUSD, EURJPY, SEKEUR, AUDUSD,

CADUSD, Brent-Oil, 10y US Treasury
Yield and S&P500
with Jan99 pivot point = 100 as base

143

CYCLE = fluctuations in economic activity

around a long-term growth trend
measured by the rate of real
Gross Domestic Product broadly followed
by pro-cyclical assets

138

133
26. Jul.

2. Aug.

9. Aug.

16. Aug.

23. Aug.

30. Aug.

6. Sep.

13. Sep.

20. Sep.

27. Sep.

4. Okt.

11. Okt.

18. Okt.

Contact:
Christian Eggers
Capital Markets Structuring & Trading
Tel.: +49 (0)431 900 25514
Disclaimer:
Information and statements contained in this document are based on either thorough research by HSH Nordbank AG or on sources that are considered reliable
but cannot be verified. Details from external sources are checked for plausibility. They are not scrutinized for accuracy. Although every effort is made to ensure
correctness, HSH Nordbank AG cannot be held responsible for completeness, status, or accuracy of information.
Information in HSH Nordbank AG publications are not sufficient basis for important economic decisions. They represent non-binding interpretations of markets
and products at the time of publication. They do not represent legally binding offers. Information contained in this document is not substitute for individual
advice. HSH Nordbank AG cannot be held responsible for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents.
This is a marketing communication. The document has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
HSH Nordbank AG

Daily Commentary | 18.10.2013

Page 2