FIRST MINISTERS

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM EST - OCTOBER 21, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,525 Canadians by Chimera IVR from October 5-6, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell
phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.33%, 19 times out of 20.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

65% APPROVE OF TRUDEAU, COUILLARD MOST POPULAR PREMIER NATIONALLY

October 21, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll takes a close look at approval ratings for
Canadas Premiers - both in their home provinces and across the country. With 5,525 Canadians surveyed
from October 5-6, the Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.33, 19 times out of 20.
With no permanent opposition leaders for the NDP and Conservatives, and with several provincial-federal
conicts, its the Premiers who are currently holding Justin Trudeau to account. Regardless, Justin Trudeau,
leads the way in national approvals with a 65% approval rating, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet
Research. Other rst Ministers did not fare well, leading a tight pack of ve Minister's with net positive
scores is Quebec's Phillipe Couillard with 45% national approval, followed by Alberta Premier Rachel Notley
(44%), Brad Wall of Saskatchewan (42%), Ontario's Kathleen Wynne (41%) and BC Premier Christy
Clark.(39%).
MCLAUGHLAN HAS HIGHEST APPROVAL IN HOME PROVINCE, WYNNE LOWEST
In their own respective provinces, some Premiers fared better, notably Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister
(54%), Saskatchewan's Brad Wall (52%) and Wade McLaughlan leading the way with 55%. At the other end
of the spectrum are Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Dwight Ball (24%) and Ontario Premier Kathleen
Wynne (19%).
Atlantic provincial First Ministers are less widely known then their counterparts from central and western
Canada. When asked to rate the approval of the job performance of Eastern Canada's Premiers, a majority
of Canadians were not sure about Newfoundland's Dwight Ball (56%), PEI Premier Wade MacLauchlan
(69%), Nova Scotia's Stephen McNeil (68%) and New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant (67%).
On the national stage, Brad Wall, a leading critic of Trudeau, scores quite well with 42% approval and just
30% disapproval. His approval is highest in neighbouring Manitoba where he outpaces even the popular
Pallister with 65% approval. His lowest approval score comes out of PEI where just 21% approve but that is
tempered by just 12% disapproval, followed closely by Quebec where only 24% approve compared to 39%
disapproval. His approval rating is 47% in Alberta where he is often referenced by the Wildrose Party.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
Available for interview from Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514)-913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

SAMPLE SIZES & MARGINS OF ERROR

Province

Sample Size

MoE*

Nat.

5525

1.32%

NL

407

4.85%

P.E.I.

302

5.63%

NS

403

4.88%

NB

417

4.8%

QC

908

3.25%

ON

982

3.13%

MB

439

4.68%

SK

431

4.72%

AB

577

4.08%

BC

659

3.82%

A4

Approval Rating In Home Province (Local)

D. Ball 25%

64%

12%

W. MacLauchlan 55%

35%

S. McNeil 42%
B. Gallant

42%

38%

19%

B. Pallister

54%

34%

C. Clark

39%

10

11%

56%

9%

71%

10%
37%

B. Wall 52%
R. Notley

16%

52%

P. Couillard 35%
K. Wynne

9%

9%

43%
57%

10%

52%
20

Approve

30

40

50

Disapprove

9%
60

70

Not Sure

80

90

100

A5

National Approval Rating

J. Trudeau 65%

29%

D. Ball 21%

22%

W. MacLauchlan 19%

12%

56%
69%

S. McNeil 22%

10%

68%

22%

11%

67%

B. Gallant

P. Couillard 45%
K. Wynne
B. Pallister

44%

41%
9%

44%

C. Clark

39%

10

10%

45%

14%

87%

B. Wall 42%
R. Notley

6%

30%

28%

32%

24%

28%
20

30

40

50

33%
60

70

80

90

100

37%
42%
40%
43%
23%
32%
47%

0
33%

10

41%

20

35%

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

12%

50

Somewhat Disapprove

Strongly Disapprove

17%

14%

14%

23%

29%

27%

30%

35%

35%

37%

30

25%

40
10%

16%

40%

11%
11%
29%

13%

17%

14%

16%

7% 14%

14%

7% 16%

12%

9%

10%

18%

12%

11%

10%

60

25%

70

10%

80

10%

10%

9%

10%

6%

7%

6% 6%

9%

6%

90

40%

A6

Justin Trudeau

100

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

Not Sure

NL

PEI

NS

NB

Strongly Approve

Somewhat Approve

11%
9%
6% 12%

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

Somewhat Disapprove

8%

11%

21%

9%

Strongly Disapprove

12%

65%

8% 71%

17%

61%

23%

70%

8% 76%

7% 9%

10%

7%

QC
15%

18%

20%

Nat.
28%

44%

30%

18%

60

16%

70
24%

12%

15%

80

41%

56%

12%

12%

12%

90

21%

13%

0
15%

10
49%

20

10% 15%

30

10% 12%

40

10% 11%

A7

Dwight Ball

100

50

Not Sure

32%
25%
7% 13%
12%
11%
6% 6%
6%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

84%

84%

71%
73%

78%

7% 6%
7%

40

6% 10% 63%

15%

12%

14%

26%

28%

9%

9%
16%

80

21%

9%

60
36%

90

29%

50
14%

70

26%

29%

0
26%

10

19%

20
6% 6% 69%

30

10% 9%

A8

Wade MacLauchlan

100

BC

10% 18%
10% 8%
6% 15%
8% 9%
13%

75%

71%

78%

11%

36%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

80%

40
7% 55%

22%
15%

20%

70

9%

25%

25%

24%

50

26%

60
19%

6% 18%

16%

6% 18%

17%

80

33%

68%

90

8% 6% 72%

17%

0
26%

10

26%

20
7%

30

10% 12%

A9

Stephen McNeil

100

BC

9%
8% 8% 8%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

SK

AB

BC

71%

15%

MB
10%

72%

7% 11%

8%

6% 64%

6% 67%

74%

66%

28%

8% 21%

9%

21%

9%

11%

9%

12%

7% 16%

21%

24%

14%

60

22%

12%

17%

36%

50
21%

70
15%

80

39%

90

32%

27%

0
18%

10

26%

20
67%

30

8%

40

10% 12%

A10

Brian Gallant

100

36%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

SK
25%

18%

40%

21%

8% 38%

MB
11%

11%

14%

12%

59%

26%

17%

17%

20%

35%

39%

24%

29%

22%

23%

10% 23%

10% 22%

21%

70

15%

11%

15%

31%

29%
9%

10%

9%

11%

18%

19%

9%

13%

18%

80

19%

40%

30
26%

40

16%

14%

0
32%

10

15%

20

18%

50
15%

60

25%

90

21%

A11

Philippe Couillard

100

AB

BC

11%
29%
8% 11%
25%
23%
18%
15%

43%

33%

18%

28%

52%

32%

50
16%

14%

22%

23%

20%

19%

18%

17%

9%

10%

15%

13%

15%

17%

14%

19%

11%

29%

21%

6% 22%

19%

12%

45%

11%

18%

60

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

30%

30
39%

19%

80

45%

14%

0
38%

10

9%

20

26%

40
26%

70

25%

90

16%

A12

Kathleen Wynne

100

A13

Brian Pallister

9%

100
90

18%

80
70

ON

8%

QC

14%

NB

8% 66%

NS

11%

95%

Nat.

11%

96%

29%
96%

PEI

95%

6%

NL

9%

90%

10

87%

20

79%

30

25%

40

MB

SK

AB

87%

50

7% 66%

19%

60

BC

12%

8% 16%
22%
36%
20%
33%
19%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

23%

14%

8% 16%

11%

14%

20%

19%

20%
16%

28%

23%

35%

9%

12%

38%

38%

40%

28%

11%

90

32%

29%

27%

8% 11%

8% 13%

47%

17%

80

27%

18%

6% 6% 68%

7% 11%

50

9%

19%

0
25%

10

20%

20

12%

30

10% 26%

40
14%

60

22%

70

20%

A14

Brad Wall

100

26%
31%
20%
29%

19%
19%
18%
14%
13%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

29%

28%

16%

6% 9%

28%

18%

49%

10% 21%

29%

15%

16%

16%

27%

10% 16%

29%

24%

24%

10%

90

25%

11%

12%

16%

24%
29%

8% 10% 35%

59%

7% 22%

17%

70

19%

30%

0
24%

10
18%

20

9%

30
16%

40

27%

50

15%

60

27%

80

17%

A15

Rachel Notley

100

16%
19%
17%
14%
9%
13%

Nat.

NL

PEI

NS

NB

QC

ON

MB

SK

AB

BC

44%

31%

21%

14%

12%

31%

21%

32%

37%

41%

10% 16%

10% 42%

12%

43%

33%

9%

90

26%

14%

9%

11%

9%

56%

7% 52%

6%

16%

30

21%

21%

21%

25%

21%

23%

24%

10% 9%

15%

60

25%

12%

0
7% 28%

10

12%

20

13%

40
14%

50

23%

70

15%

A16

Christy Clark

100

80

A17

SCRIPT

Do you approve or disapprove of the way *Name* is handling his/her job as Premier of *Province*
[Names Randomized]
Justin Trudeau/Prime Minister*
Dwight Ball/Newfoundland and Labrador
Wade MacLauchlan/Prince Edward Island
Stephen McNeil/Nova Scotia
Brian Gallant/New Brunswick
Philippe Couillard/Quebec
Kathleen Wynne/Ontario
Brian Pallister/Manitoba
Brad Wall/Saskatchewan
Rachel Notley/Alberta
Christy Clark/British Columbia

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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