5-1

Chapter 5
Probability
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5-2

Outline

5-1 Introduction
5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability
5-3 The Addition Rules for
Probability
5-4 The Multiplication Rules and
Conditional Probability
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5-3

Objectives

Determine Sample Spaces and find

the probability of an event using
classical probability.
Find the probability of an event
using empirical probability.
Find the probability of compound
events using the addition rules.
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5-4

Objectives

Find the probability of compound

events using the multiplication
rules.
Find the conditional probability of
an event.

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5-5

5-2 Sample Spaces and Probability

A probability experiment is a process

that leads to well-defined results called
outcomes.
An outcome is the result of a single trial
of a probability experiment.
NOTE: A tree diagram can be used as a
systematic way to find all possible
outcomes of a probability experiment.
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5-6

5-2 Tree Diagram for Tossing Two Coins

H
H

T
Second Toss
H

T
First Toss

T
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5-7

5-2 Sample Spaces - Examples

EXPERIMENT SAMPLE SPACE
Toss one coin

H, T

Roll a die

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Answer a truefalse question

Toss two coins

True, False
HH, HT, TH, TT
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5-2 Formula for Classical

Probability

5-8

Classical probability assumes that

all outcomes in the sample space
are equally likely to occur.
That is, equally likely events are
events that have the same
probability of occurring.

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5-9

5-2 Formula for Classical

Probability
The probability of any event E is
number of outcomes in E
.
total number of outcomes in the sample space
This probability is denoted by
n( E )
P( E ) =
.
n( S )
This probability is called classical probability ,
and it uses the sample space S .
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5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

5-10

For a card drawn from an ordinary deck,

find the probability of getting (a) a
queen (b) a 6 of clubs (c) a 3 or a
diamond.
Solution: (a) Since there are 4 queens
and 52 cards, P(queen) = 4/52 = 1/13.
1/13
(b) Since there is only one 6 of clubs,
then P(6 of clubs) = 1/52.
1/52
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5-11

5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

(c) There are four 3s and 13

diamonds, but the 3 of diamonds is
counted twice in the listing. Hence
there are only 16 possibilities of
drawing a 3 or a diamond, thus
P(3 or diamond) = 16/52 = 4/13.
4/13
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5-12

5-2 Classical Probability - Examples

When a single die is rolled, find the

probability of getting a 9.
Solution: Since the sample space is 1, 2,
3, 4, 5, and 6, it is impossible to get a 9.
Hence, P(9) = 0/6 = 0.
0
NOTE: The sum of the probabilities of all
outcomes in a sample space is one.
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5-13

5-2 Complement of an Event

The complement of an event E is the set of outcomes in the
sample space that are not included in the outcomes
of event E . The complement of E is denoted by E ( E bar ).

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5-2 Complement of an Event Example

5-14

Find the complement of each event.

Rolling a die and getting a 4.
Solution: Getting a 1, 2, 3, 5, or 6.
Selecting a letter of the alphabet and
getting a vowel.
Solution: Getting a consonant
(assume y is a consonant).
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5-2 Complement of an Event Example

5-15

Selecting a day of the week and

getting a weekday.
Solution: Getting Saturday or
Sunday.
Selecting a one-child family and
getting a boy.
Solution: Getting a girl.
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5-16

5-2 Rule for Complementary Event

P(E ) 1 P(E )
or
P(E ) = 1P(E )
or
P ( E ) + P ( E ) = 1.
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5-2 Empirical Probability

5-17

The difference between classical and

empirical probability is that classical
probability assumes that certain
outcomes are equally likely while
empirical probability relies on actual
experience to determine the
probability of an outcome.
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5-18

5-2 Formula for Empirical

Probability
Given a frequency distribution,
the probability of an event being
in a given class is
frequency for the class
P( E ) =
total frequencies in the distribution
f
.
n
This probability is called the empirical
probability and is based on observation.
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5-2 Empirical Probability Example

5-19

In a sample of 50 people, 21 had

type O blood, 22 had type A blood,
5 had type B blood, and 2 had AB
blood. Set up a frequency
distribution.

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5-20

5-2 Empirical Probability Example

Type
A
B
AB
O

Frequency
22
5
2
21
50 = n

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5-2 Empirical Probability Example

5-21

Find the following probabilities for

the previous example.
A person has type O blood.
Solution: P(O) = f /n = 21/50.
A person has type A or type B blood.
Solution: P(A or B) = 22/50+ 5/50
= 27/50.
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5-3 The Addition Rules for

Probability

5-22

Two events are mutually exclusive

if they cannot occur at the same
time (i.e. they have no outcomes in
common).

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5-23

5-3 The Addition Rules for

Probability

A and B are mutually exclusive

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5-24

5-3 Addition Rule 1

When two events A and B are
mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur is
P ( A or B ) P ( A ) P ( B )

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5-25

5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example

At a political rally, there are 20

Republicans (R), 13 Democrats (D),
and 6 Independents (I). If a person is
selected, find the probability that he or
she is either a Democrat or an
Independent.
Solution: P(D or I) = P(D) + P(I)
= 13/39 + 6/39 = 19/39.
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5-26

5-3 Addition Rule 1- Example

A day of the week is selected at
random. Find the probability that it
is a weekend.

Solution: P(Saturday or Sunday)

= P(Saturday) + P(Sunday)
= 1/7 + 1/7 = 2/7.

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5-27

5-3 Addition Rule 2

When two events A and B
are not mutually exclusive, the
probabilityy that A or B will
occur is
P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B) P ( A and B )

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5-28

5-3 Addition Rule 2

A and B

(common portion)

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5-29

5-3 Addition Rule 2- Example

In a hospital unit there are eight

nurses and five physicians. Seven
nurses and three physicians are
females. If a staff person is selected,
find the probability that the subject is
a nurse or a male.
The next slide has the data.
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5-30

5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

STAFF
STAFF

FEMALES
FEMALES

MALES
MALES

TOTAL
TOTAL

NURSES
NURSES

77

11

88

PHYSICIANS
PHYSICIANS

33

22

55

TOTAL
TOTAL

10
10

33

13
13

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5-31

5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

Solution: P(nurse or male)

= P(nurse) + P(male) P(male
nurse) = 8/13 + 3/13 1/13 = 10/13.

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5-32

5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

On New Years Eve, the probability that a

person driving while intoxicated is 0.32,
the probability of a person having a
driving accident is 0.09, and the
probability of a person having a driving
accident while intoxicated is 0.06. What is
the probability of a person driving while
intoxicated or having a driving accident?
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5-33

5-3 Addition Rule 2 - Example

Solution:
P(intoxicated
or accident)
= P(intoxicated) + P(accident)
P(intoxicated and accident)
= 0.32 + 0.09 0.06 = 0.35.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability

5-34

Two events A and B are independent

if the fact that A occurs does not
affect the probability of B occurring.
Example: Rolling a die and getting a
6, and then rolling another die and
getting a 3 are independent events.
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5-35

5-4 Multiplication Rule 1

When two events A and B
are independent , the
probability of both
occurring is
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B ).

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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 Example

5-36

A card is drawn from a deck and

replaced; then a second card is
drawn. Find the probability of getting
a queen and then an ace.
Solution: Because these two events
are independent (why?), P(queen and
ace) = (4/52)(4/52) = 16/2704 = 1/169.
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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 Example

5-37

A Harris pole found that 46% of

Americans say they suffer great stress
at least once a week. If three people
are selected at random, find the
probability that all three will say that
they suffer stress at least once a week.
Solution: Let S denote stress. Then
P(S and S and S) = (0.46)3 = 0.097.
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5-4 Multiplication Rule 1 Example

5-38

The probability that a specific medical

test will show positive is 0.32. If four
people are tested, find the probability
that all four will show positive.
Solution: Let T denote a positive test
result. Then P(T and T and T and T) =
(0.32)4 = 0.010.
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability

5-39

When the outcome or occurrence of the

first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in such
a way that the probability is changed,
the events are said to be dependent.
Example: Having high grades and
getting a scholarship are dependent
events.
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability

5-40

The conditional probability of an event B

in relationship to an event A is the
probability that an event B occurs after
event A has already occurred.
The notation for the conditional probability
of B given A is P(B|A).
NOTE: This does not mean B A.
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5-41

5-4 Multiplication Rule 2

When two events A and B
are dependent , the
probability of both
occurring is
P ( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B| A).

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-42

In a shipment of 25 microwave ovens,

two are defective. If two ovens are
randomly selected and tested, find the
probability that both are defective if the
first one is not replaced after it has
been tested.
Solution: See next slide.
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-43

Solution: Since the events are

dependent, P(D1 and D2)
= P(D1)P(D2| D1) = (2/25)(1/24)
= 2/600 = 1/300.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-44

The WW Insurance Company found that

53% of the residents of a city had
homeowners insurance with its company.
Of these clients, 27% also had automobile
insurance with the company. If a resident
is selected at random, find the probability
that the resident has both homeowners
and automobile insurance.
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-45

Solution: Since the events are

dependent, P(H and A)
= P(H)P(A|H) = (0.53)(0.27)
= 0.1431.

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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-46

Box 1 contains two red balls and one

blue ball. Box 2 contains three blue
balls and one red ball. A coin is tossed.
If it falls heads up, box 1 is selected and
a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, box 2
is selected and a ball is drawn. Find the
probability of selecting a red ball.
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5-47

5-4 Tree Diagram for Example

P(R|B1) 2/3
P(B1) 1/2

P(B2) 1/2

Red (1/2)(2/3)

Box 1
Blue (1/2)(1/3)
P(B|B1) 1/3
P(R|B2) 1/4
Box 2
Red (1/2)(1/4)
P(B|B2) 3/4 Blue (1/2)(3/4)
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5-4 The Multiplication Rules and

Conditional Probability - Example

5-48

Solution: P(red) = (1/2)(2/3) + (1/2)

(1/4) = 2/6 + 1/8 = 8/24 + 3/24 =
11/24.

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5-49

5-4 Conditional Probability Formula

The probability that the second event B occurs
given that the first event A has occurred can be
found by dividing the probability that both events
occurred by the probability that the first event has
occurred . The formula is
P ( A and B )
P ( B | A) =
.
P ( A)
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5-4 Conditional Probability Example

5-50

The probability that Sam parks in a noparking zone and gets a parking ticket is
0.06, and the probability that Sam cannot
find a legal parking space and has to park
in the no-parking zone is 0.2. On Tuesday,
Sam arrives at school and has to park in a
no-parking zone. Find the probability that
he will get a ticket.
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5-4 Conditional Probability Example

5-51

Solution: Let N = parking in a noparking zone and T = getting a

ticket.
Then P(T |N) = [P(N and T) ]/P(N) =
0.06/0.2 = 0.30.

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5-4 Conditional Probability Example

5-52

A recent survey asked 100 people

if they thought women in the
armed forces should be permitted
to participate in combat. The
results are shown in the table on
the next slide.
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5-53

5-4 Conditional Probability Example

Gender
Gender

Yes
Yes

No
No

Total
Total

Male
Male

32
32

18
18

50
50

Female
Female

88

42
42

50
50

Total
Total

40
40

60
60

100
100

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5-4 Conditional Probability Example

5-54

Find the probability that the respondent

answered yes given that the respondent
was a female.
Solution: Let M = respondent was a male;
F = respondent was a female;
Y = respondent answered yes;
N = respondent answered no.
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5-4 Conditional Probability Example

5-55

P(Y|F) = [P( F and Y) ]/P(F) = [8/100]/

[50/100] = 4/25.
Find the probability that the respondent
was a male, given that the respondent
answered no.
Solution: P(M|N) = [P(N and M)]/P(N) =
[18/100]/[60/100] = 3/10.
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