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Predictingsandproduction
Predictingwhetherawellwillproducefluidswithoutproducingsandhasbeenthegoalofmanycompletionengineersandresearchprojects.Thereareanumberofanalytical
techniquesandguidelinestoassistindeterminingifsandcontrol(/Sand_control)isnecessary,butnotechniquehasproventobeuniversallyacceptableorcompletelyaccurate.In
somegeographicregions,guidelinesandrulesofthumbapplythathavelittlevalidityinotherareasoftheworld.Predictingwhetheraformationwillorwillnotproducesandisnot
anexactscience,andmorerefinementisneeded.Untilbetterpredictiontechniquesareavailable,thebestwayofdeterminingtheneedforsandcontrolinaparticularwellisto
performanextendedproductiontestwithaconventionalcompletionandobservewhethersandproductionoccurs.Normally,itisnotnecessarytopredictsandproductiononawell
bywellbasisbecausewellsinthesamereservoirtendtobehavesimilarly.Thepredictionrequiredisonareservoirbyreservoirbasis.However,initialgoodresultsmayprove
misleading,asreservoirandflowconditionschange.

Contents
1Operationalandeconomicinfluences
2Formationstrength
3Soniclog
4Formationpropertieslog
5Porosity
6Drawdown
7Finiteelementanalysis
8Timedependance
9Multiphaseflow
10References
11NoteworthypapersinOnePetro
12Externallinks
13Seealso
14Category

Operationalandeconomicinfluences
Thedifficultyofdeterminingwhethersandcontrolisrequiredinagivenwelliscompoundedwhenthewellisdrilledinaremoteareawherethereisnoproducingexperienceand
wherethevariousreservoirfactorsareslightlydifferentfrompreviouslyexploitedregions.Evenifthereservoirandformationpropertiesarealmostidenticaltootherdevelopments,
theoperatingconditionsandrisksmaybesuchthatdifferentstrategiesapply.Oneexamplemightbeasubseaproject,asopposedtoalanddevelopmentproject.Here,the
consequencesandrisksassociatedwithsandproductionaresignificantlydifferentbecauseofdifferingcostsandrisksassociatedwithremedialwelloperationshence,thedecisionto
useasandcontroltechniqueisbothaneconomicandoperationaldecisionthatmustbemadewithlimiteddata.
Thedecisioniscomplicatedbythefactthatsandcontroltechniques,suchasgravelpacking(/Gravel_pack_design),areexpensiveandcanrestrictwellproductivityifnotperformed
properly.Therefore,gravelpackingcannotbeappliedindiscriminatelywhenthepossibilityforsandproductionfromawellisunknown.Makingthedecisionwhethertogravelpack
isfairlyeasyiftheformationmaterialiseitherhard(nosandproduction)orweak(sandproduction).Thedifficultyariseswhenthestrengthoftheformationmaterialismarginal.At
thatpoint,thedecisionnormallyceasestobeprimarilyatechnicalissuebutmoreofaneconomicandriskmanagementexercise.Ifthereisuncertainty,theconservativeapproachis
toalwaysapplysandcontrolcompletions.Thisobviouslywillsolvethesandproductionproblembutwillalsoincreasecostsandmayreducewellproductivity.Ifsandcontrolwas
actuallyunnecessary,theimplementationofsandcontrolcompletionswasabadeconomicdecision.

Formationstrength
Theprocedurefollowedbymost,toconsiderwhethersandcontrolisrequired,istodeterminethehardnessoftheformationrock(i.e.,therockscompressivestrength
(/Compressive_strength_of_rocks)).Becausetherockscompressivestrengthhasthesameunitsasthepressuredifferencebetweenthereservoirandthewell(thedrawdown),thetwo
parameterscanbedirectlycompared,anddrawdownlimitsforspecificwellscanbedetermined.Researchperformedintheearly1970s[1]showedthatrockfailedandbeganto
producesandwhenthedrawdownpressurewasmorethanabout1.7timesthecompressivestrength.Asanexample,formationsandwithacompressivestrengthof1,000psiwould
notfailorbegintoproducesanduntilthedrawdownexceeded1,700psi.OthersuseBrinnellhardnessasanindicatorofwhethertoapplysandcontrol.TheBrinnellhardnessofthe
rockisrelatedtothecompressivestrengthbutisnotasconvenienttousebecausetheunitsofhardnessaredimensionlessandcannotberelatedtodrawdownaseasilyascompressive
strength.

Soniclog
Thesoniclog(/Acoustic_logging)canbeusedasawayofaddressingthesandproductionpotentialofwells.Thesoniclogrecordsthetimerequiredforsoundwavestotravel
throughtheformation,usuallyinmicroseconds.Theporosityisrelatedtoformationstrengthandthesonictraveltime.Shorttraveltimes,lessthan50microseconds,indicatelow
porosityandhard,denserocklongtraveltimes,95microsecondsorgreater,areassociatedwithsoft,lowdensity,highporosityrock.Acommontechniqueusedfordetermining
whethersandcontrolisrequiredinagivengeologicareaistocorrelateincidencesofsandproductionwiththesoniclogreadingsaboveandbelowthesandproductionthathasbeen
observed.Thisestablishesaquickscreeningmethodfortheneedforsandcontrol.Theuseofthismethodrequirescalibrationagainstparticulargeologicformationstobereliable.

Formationpropertieslog
Certainwelllogs,suchasthesonicloganddensity(/Density_logging)andneutron(/Pulsed_neutron_lifetime_logs)devices,areindicatorsofporosityandformationhardness.Fora
particularformation,alowdensityreadingindicateshighporosity(/Rock_density_and_porosity).Theneutronlogsareprimarilyanindicatorofporosity.Severalloggingcompanies
offeraformationpropertieslogthatusestheresultsofthesonic,density,andneutronlogstodetermineifaformationwillproduceformationmaterialatcertainlevelsofdrawdown.
Thiscalculationidentifiesweakandstrongintervalstheweakeronesaremorepronetoproducesand.Whiletheformationpropertiesloghasbeenusedforover20years,experience
hasshownthatthislogusuallyoverpredictstheneedforsandcontrol.

Porosity
Theporosityofaformation(/Rock_density_and_porosity)canbeusedasaguidelineastowhethersandcontrolisneeded.Iftheformationporosityisgreaterthan30%,the
probabilityoftheneedforsandcontrolishighbecauseofthelackofcementation.Conversely,iftheporosityislessthan20%,theneedforsandcontrolwillprobablybeminimal
becausethesandhassomeconsolidation.Theporosityrangebetween20to30%iswhereuncertaintyusuallyexists.Innaturalmedia,porosityisrelatedtothedegreeofcementation
presentinaformationthus,thebasisforthistechniqueisunderstandable.Porosityinformation(/Porosity_determination)canbederivedfromwelllogsorlaboratorycoreanalysis.

Drawdown
Thepressuredrawdownassociatedwithproductionmaybeanindicatorofpotentialformationsandproduction.Nosandproductionmayoccurwithsmallpressuredrawdownaround
thewell,whereasexcessivedrawdowncancausetheformationtofailandproducesandatunacceptablelevels.Theamountofpressuredrawdownisnormallyassociatedwiththe
formationpermeabilityandtheviscosityoftheproducedfluids.Lowviscosityfluids,suchasgas,experiencesmallerdrawdowns,asopposedtothedrawdownthatwouldbe
associatedwitha1,000cpfluidproducedfromthesameinterval.Hence,highersandproductionisusuallyassociatedwithviscousfluids.

Finiteelementanalysis
Themostsophisticatedapproachtopredictingsandproductionistheuseofgeomechanicalnumericalmodelsdevelopedtoanalyzefluidflow
(/Fluid_flow_through_permeable_media)throughthereservoirinrelationtotheformationstrength.Theeffectofformationstress(/Stress_strain_relationships_in_rocks),associated
withfluidflowintheimmediateregionaroundthewellbore,issimultaneouslycomputedwithfiniteelementanalysis.Whilethisapproachisbyfarthemostrigorous,itrequiresan
accurateknowledgeoftheformationsstrengtharoundthewellinboththeelasticandplasticregionswheretheformationbeginstofail.Inputdataonbothregionsaredifficultto
acquirewithahighdegreeofaccuracyunderactualdownholeconditions.Thisisthemajordifficultywiththisapproach.Thefiniteelementanalysismethodisgoodfromthe
viewpointofcomparingoneintervalwithanotherhowever,theabsolutevaluescalculatedmaynotrepresentactualformationbehavior.

Timedependance
Theeffectoftimeontheproductionofformationsandissometimesconsideredtobeanissuehowever,therearenodatathatsuggestthattimealoneisafactor.Therehavebeen
undocumentedclaimsthatproducedfluidscouldpossiblydissolvetheformationsnaturalcementingmaterials,butthedataarenotsubstantiated.

Multiphaseflow
Predictingwhenmultiphasefluidflow(/Phase_behavior)willbegincanalsobeanaid.Manycasescanbecitedwherewellsproducedsandfreeuntilwaterproductionbegan,but
producedunacceptableamountsafterwards.Thereasonfortheincreasedsandproductioniscausedbytwoprimaryphenomena:themovementofwaterwetfinesandrelative
permeabilityeffects.Mostformationfinesarewaterwetand,asaconsequence,immobilewhenahydrocarbonphaseisthesoleproducedfluidbecausehydrocarbonsoccupythe
majorityoftheporespace.However,whenthewatersaturationisincreasedtothepointthatwaterbecomesmobile,theformationfinesbeginthemovewiththewettingphase
(water),whichcreateslocalizedpluggingintheporethroatsoftheporousmedia.Additionally,whentwophaseflowoccurs,increaseddrawdownisexperiencedbecausetwophases
flowingtogetherhavemoreresistancetoflowthaneitherfluidalone.Theserelativepermeabilityeffectscanincreasethedrawdownaroundthewellbyasmuchasafactorof5per
unitofproduction.Theresultoffinesmigration,plugging,andreducedrelativepermeabilityaroundthewellincreasesthedrawdowntothepointthatitmayexceedthestrengthof
theformation.Theconsequencescanbeexcessivesandproduction.Theseverityoffinesmigrationvariesfromformationtoformationandwhethergasorliquidisbeingproduced.

References
1. Penberthy,W.L.Jr.andShaughnessy,C.M.1992.SandControl,1,1117.Richardson,Texas:MonographSeries,SPE.

NoteworthypapersinOnePetro
UsethissectiontolistpapersinOnePetrothatareaderwhowantstolearnmoreshoulddefinitelyread

Externallinks
UsethissectiontoprovidelinkstorelevantmaterialonwebsitesotherthanPetroWikiandOnePetro

Seealso
Sandcontrol(/Sand_control)
Sandcontroltechniques(/Sand_control_techniques)
Rocktypes(/Rock_types)
Compressivestrengthofrocks(/Compressive_strength_of_rocks)
Rockdensityandporosity(/Rock_density_and_porosity)
PEH:Sand_Control(/PEH%3ASand_Control)

Category
Categories(/Special%3ACategories):
3.2.5Downholeproducedsandorsolidsmanagementandcontrol(/Category%3A3.2.5_Downhole_produced_sand_or_solids_management_and_control)
2.1.3Sandorsolidscontrol(/Category%3A2.1.3_Sand_or_solids_control) YR(/Category%3AYR)

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