The conceptand

measurement
of mineral reserves
and resources
G.J.S. Govett and M.H. Govett

The

distinction

ploitable
mineral

deposit

as a function
and

between

and

is dynamic,

of changing

technological

ceptual

are

currently
known

The

resources

not

mineral

rapid

development
techniques.
be

resources
mineral

is

unconventional

for

of some

a policy

exploration
of

new

if

and
lower

mineral

of
and

exploraproblems

the

recognized

extraction

techniques

resources

yet discovered.

Future

avoided

plus

deposits;

inadequacy

tion
could

are reserves

reserves requires

accelerated

known
deposits;

are known

short-term

mineral

to

non-exploitable

plus all deposits

con-

proposed:

restricted

resources

total

varying
A

is

exploitable

currently

ex-

economic

factors.

framework

reserves

an

non-exploitable

nature
and

of
new

processing
grade

and

deposits

are

developed.
G.J.S. Govett is Professor in the Department
of Geology,
University
of New
Brunswick,
Fredericton,
New Brunswick,
Canada: M.H. Govett is an Economic ConFredericton,
New
Brunswick,
sultant,
Canada.

Introduction

Concern for the environment

and the future pattern of life on
earth has intensified
the long-standing
controversy
about the
adequacy of the worlds mineral resources to support a continuing
high level of material well-being in the developed countries and, at
the same time, to supply the raw materials for industrialization
in
the less developed
countries. 3 Words such as scarcity, crisis,
and cornucopia abound in the recent literature; models have been
constructed
to prove that the industrial world as we know it is
doomed - either through
wanton waste, or through
a selfish
disregard
for future generations,
or as a result of ecological
disaster.3 ,4
Debate on the problem
of the adequacy
of non-renewable
resources is circumscribed
by the sheer difficulty of measuring the
quantities of minerals available and awaiting discovery. This is not
simply the relatively easy problem of measuring quantities of ore
in known deposits,
nor the much more difficult
problem of
assessing the quantities
of minerals yet to be found; i? is the
problem of defining agreed constraints on what is being measured.
Estimates of mineral supplies are dynamic figures which change
not only with the discovery of new deposits-or tile depletion of
known deposits, but vary over time as a function of interacting
economic
and technological
factors. As pointed out by Blonde1
and Lasky5, there can be no absolute figure for the reserves oi a:iy
particular mineral.

Problems of definition

The problems
of defining and estimating mineral reserves and
resources have been dealt with at length:6-21
the problems of
measurement
are compounded
by the confusion in the definitions
used by geologists, engineers, economists,
and politicians.
The
miner concerns himself with a single ore deposit of limited area1
extent; the economist is interested in regional, national, or global
mineral supplies. There is an uneasy alliance between the two;
frequently
there is a great deal of overlap and misunderstanding
in
their measurements.
In 1956 Blonde1 and Lasky presented a paper5 on behalf of the
Society
of Economic
Geologists
setting forth recommended
definitions
and distinguishing
between
reserves and resources.
46

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

1974

 Govett, G.J.S. and Govett, M.H. Mineral

resource
supplies
and
the
limits
of
economic growth, Earth Sci Rev 8 (1972)
pp 275-290
2 Govett,
M.H. and Govett,
G.J.S. The
problems of energy and mineral resources,
in
Review
of
Research
on
Modern
Problems in Geochemistry
edited by F.R.
Siegel (to be published by UNESCO, 1974)
3 Meadows,
D.H.,
Meadows,
D.L.,
Randers, J. and Behrens, W.W. The limits to
growth,
(New
York:
Universal
Books
1972) 205pp
4 Ecologist
A
blueprint
for
(Harmondsworth:
Penguin,
edition, 1972) 139pp

survival,
revised

5 Blondel,
F. and Lasky, S.G. Mineral
reserves and mineral resources, fcon Geol
51 (1956) pp 686-697
6

Zimmermann,
E.W. World resources and
industries,
(New
York:
Harper
1933) - Revised edition (1951) 832pp

7 Leith, C.K. Mineral valuations of the

futur?,
in American
Institute
of Mining
and Metallurgical
Engineers Elements of
a national
mineral
policy
(New York:
AIME 1938) pp 47-48
Fennel, J.H. Ore
MinMet49(1?39)~315

reserves,

Trans

lnst

9 Lasky,
S.G.
The
concept
of
ore
reserves, Mining
and Metallurgy,
New
York 26 (1945) pp 471-474

I Lasky, S.G. Mineral resources appraisal

by the United States Geological Survey
Quart Cola Sch of Mines 45 (1950) p 10
Blondel, F. and Lasky, S.G. Concepts
of mineral
reserves and resources
reprinted in United Nations Survey of World
Iron Ore Resources (NY, United Nations
1970) pp 53-61
* Flawn,
P.T.
Mineral
(Chicago: Rand McNally 1966)

resources
406pp

I3 Flawn, P.T. Minerals: A final harvest

or an endless crop? Engineer and Min
Journ 166 (1965)
pp 106-107
l4 Pruitt, R.G. Jr. Mineral terms ~- some
problems in their use and definition,
7 7th
Annual
Rocky
Mountain
Mineral
Law
lnsritute (New York: Matthew Bender and
Co. 1966) pp l-34

l5 Skinner, B.J. Earth Resources (Englewood Cliffs,

New Jersey: Prentice-Hall
1969) 150~~
l6 Lovering, T.S. Mineral resources from
the
land,
in National
Academy
of
Sciences and National
Research Council
Resources and Man (San Francisco, Calif:
W.H. Freeman 1969) pp 109-133

Throughout
this paper, conversions from
tons (if quoted in the original manuscript)
to metric tonnes have been made by the
publishers, where necessary: full responsibility is accepted by the publishers for any
errors thus incurred.

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

However, the terms tire still used interchangeably

and it is useful to systematically
review them.

by some writers,

Ore,

or an ore-body,
in the geological and mining sense, is a
mineral deposit or mineral concentration
from which a metal
(or a non-metal compound)
can be economically
extracted at
the present time; the most important part of this definition is in
italics. The time factor in relation to economic extraction
is
vital. Copper is commonly extracted today from ores containing
less than 0.5% of the metal; in 1700 the common mineable
grade was about 13% and in 1900 it was between 5% and 2.5%
The decrease in mineable grade is a function not only of the
demand for copper, but also of technological changes in mining
and extraction
techniques.
Marketing
conditions
can also
influence
whether a mineral deposit is considered
as ore; a
cupriferous pyrite deposit of about 3 x lo6 tonnes? with 0.24%
copper is being mined in Cyprus today2 2 because there is a
market for this particular
ore in Spain and because roads, a
railway, and port facilities are available. A similar deposit could
not possibly be considered economic in Canada today; neither
could a high-grade iron deposit in the Canadian far north
presently be regarded as ore since the metal cannot be brought
to market economically.
A comparable high-grade iron deposit
in the U.K. would certainly be considered as ore.
Reserves are the quantity
of ore available in the ground
which is exploitable
under present economic
and technical
conditions; the quantity of ore is expressed as so many tons (or
pounds
or ounces)
of reserves.
To the mining engineer
concerned
with a single ore deposit,
reserves are usually
expressed
in three
categories
of decreasing
certainty >
proved cm is ore which is blocked out in three dimensions
either by underground
mining or drilling; probably
ore is
extensions
of proved ore deposits where conditions are such
that ore will almost certainly be found: possible ore is prospective ore adjacent to ore bodies and to geological structures
where lack of exploration
and drilling precludes certainty as to
the extent and precise location of the ore.

The reserve figures of the miner are almost always for reserves
in the ground and as such do not take into account losses in
extraction,
which may be as high as 20% of the total. Such
reserves may seem to remain constant since a mining company
usually blocks out (ie, proves) a maximum of 20 to 25 years
supply relative to the anticipated annual production level.
Regional or national reserve estimates are derived by adding
together
data on many individual deposits; consequently
they
reflect
many different
assumptions
and varying
degrees of
accuracy. Different terminology
has been adopted to distinguish
the regional and national reserve estimates
from the miners
measurements;
these categories (used by the US Geological Survey
and the US Bureau of Mines2 3 ) are:
Measured

reserves - ore

trenches,
workings,
detailed sampling.
1974

and

tonnage compiled
from drill
outcrops;
grade is computed

holes,
from

47

Indicated reserves - ore tonnage computed in part from specific

measurements
and in part from geographic projections based on
geological evidence. The size and shape of the deposits are not
fully outlined, and the grade is not precisely established.
Inferred reserves - estimates
of tonnage
based on broad
geological
knowledge;
concealed
deposits,
where there is
sufficient geological evidence of their presence, are included.

I7 Hubbert,
M.K.
Energy resources, in
National
Academy
of
Sciences
and
National
Research Council Resources and
Man (San Francisco, Calif: W.H. Freeman
19691 pp 157-242
la McKelvey,
V.E. Mineral resource estimates
and
public
policy,
American
Scientist 60 (1972) pp 32-40
l9 McKelvev.
V.E. Mineral ootential
of
the United States, in The Mineral Position
of the United States, 1975-2000
edited by
E.N.
Cameron
(Madison:
Universitv
of
Wisconsin Press 1973) pp 67-82

* Zwartendyk,
J. What
is mineral
endowment
and how should we measure
it?, Mineral Bul MR 126 (Ottawa: Dept.
Energy, Mines and Resources 1972) 17pp
* Brooks, D.B. Minerals: An expanding
or a dwindling resource?, Mineral Bull MR
134
(Ottawa:
Dept Energy, Mines and
Resources 1973) 17pp
** Constantinou,
G. and Govett,
G.J.S.
Geology,
geochemistry
and genesis of
Cyprus sulfide deposits,
Econ Geol 68
(1973) pp 843-858
23 US Geological
Survey,
1968.
Geological Survey Research, 1968, Chapter A.
Geological Survey PrOfeSSiOnal
PaPer
600~~.
(Washington
DC: US Govt Print
Office)

371 pp

24 United Nations. Survey of World Iron

Ore Resources (New York: United Nations
1970) 479pp
* Netschert,
B.C. and Landsberg, H.H.
The future supply of the major metals: a
reconnaissance
survey,
Wash DC:
Resources for the Future (1961) 65pp
26 US Bureau of Mines. Mineral facts and
problems (Washington DC: US Govt Print
Office 1970) 1291 pp
* Thrush, P.W. A dictionary
of mining,
mineral and related terms, (Wash DC: US
Bureau of Mines 1968) 1269pp
l Zwartendvk*
has a good discussion of
this; in the revised survey of iron ore
supplies, the United Nations24 provided a
glossary
of terms
which
included
16
definitions
of terms
used to describe
reserves and resources and a further
13
definitions
of terms used exclusively for
iron ore.

48

There is confusion in the actual usage of these and the miners

terms*. The miners possible reserves are sometimes considered as
analogous to inferred reserves, although in practice inferred reserve
estimates go far beyond the miners possible reserves; the various
categories of reserves are sometimes combined into a single figure
which is variously
called demonstrated
reserves (Blonde1 and
Lasky ), identified
reserves (Netschert
and Landsberg 5 ), and
apparent reserves. In the 53 chapters in the voluminous Mineral
Facts and Problems,* 6 apparent reserves describe proved reserves
measured
plus indicated
reserves (the platinum
(petroleum);
group of metals); the sum of measured, indicated, and inferred
reserves (nickel and aluminium);
in some cases the term is not
defined at all.
A further complication
arises with the use of potential ore and
potential reserves. Blonde1 and Lasky defined potential ore as

mineral masses which are currently

non-exploitable,
yet
which may be exploitable
if conditions
become only slightly
better (p 692), but pointed out that such a subdivision could
cause difficulties in usage. A dictionary of mineral terms compiled
by the US Bureau of Mines * 7 states under the entry for potential
ore that the term is considered obsolete. Unfortunately
Flawn *
introduced
the phrase
potential
reserves in preference
to
potential ore, and it has entered the literature. The writers share
the opinion
of ZwartendykZo
that potential
is a rather
meaningless qualifier. As he so aptly pointed out . . . a clump of
rock may be called a potential iron ore, which in turn may be
called a potential bicycle. (p 4)
.

Resources, as a concept,
includes reserves at one end of the
scale and grades down to the finite limit of an element
represented
by the average amount present in the rock of a
region (including offshore areas and the oceans). Quite clearly,
although conceptually
resources are only limited by the crustal
abundance
of the element,
at any moment
in time total
resource estimates assume some defined grade which is higher
than the crustal abundance of the element but lower than the
present economic grade.
The total resources of a nation, or of the world, consist of all
mineral deposits - both known and unknown.
Known resources include all reserves plus all deposits currently
known but not presently exploitable
for economic or technical
thus known
resources
can be divided into two
reasons;
categories, reserves and non-exploitable
deposits. As economic
and technical conditions change, some non-exploitable
deposits
will become reserves; as new discoveries are made, additional
deposits will be added to known resources.
RESOURCES

POLICY

Sepetember

Unknown resources include all mineral deposits which have not

yet been discovered,
regardless of when they might become
economically
recoverable.
Although
estimates
of unknown
resources in terms of tonnages are not generally made, there
have been attempts to determine the undiscovered resources for
some minerals. For example, Lowell* 8 calculated an order of
magnitude
for undiscovered
copper resources based on an
estimate of approximately
3 x 10 5 tonnes of copper in the
first mile of the earths crust, of which approximately
10
tonnes is concentrated
in deposits with a grade in excess of
0.25% copper; of this, 96% remains to be mined.

Lowell,
J.D.
Copper
resources
Mining
Engineer
22 (1970)
1970,
67-73
29 Hubbert, M.K.
resources,
Cand
&973
pp 37-53
Averitt,
P.
United States,
(1969) 116~~

in
PP

Survey of world energy

lnst Min Met Bull 66
Coal
resources
of the
US Geol Surv Boll 1275

31 McKelvev, V.E. Relation of reserves of

the elements to their crustal abundance,
Amer
J Sci 258A
(19601
PP 234-241
32 Nolan,
districts,
60 l-608

T.B. The search for new mining

Econ
Geol
45
(1950)
pp

33 Sekin, Y. On the concept of concentration of ore-forming

elements and the
relationship
of their frequency
in the
earths crust, Internat/
Geol Rev 5 (tl963)
pp 505-515
34 Ovchinnikov,
L.N. Estimates of world
reserves of metals in terrestial deposits,
Doklady Akad Nauk SSSR 196 Eng tram
Amer Geol lnst 179711 pp ZOO-203
35US National
Commission
on Materials
Toward
a national
meterials
Policy.
policy, 2nd interim
report (Washington
DC: US Govt Print Office 1973) 87pp
36 Boyd, J. Minerals and how we use
in The mineral position
of the
them,
United States, 7975-2000
edited by E.N.
Cameron (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press 1973) pp 1-8
37 Brown,
H. The challenge
of
future, (NY: Viking 19541 290pp
* Crustal abundance
by Skinner 5.
l

RESOURCES

of copper

POLICY

mans

as cited

September

Estimates of resources are necessarily dynamic; the realization that

it was economic to mine copper porphyry deposits for their ore in
the early part of this century increased the worlds known copper
reserves, and therefore
resources, by several hundred per cent.
Total resources cannot be measured with any precision; the limit
of what may be recoverable
at some time in the future is
uncertain, and the number of deposits which may be discovered in
the future is even more uncertain.
Nevertheless,
in addition to
Lowells estimates of copper resources, attempts have been made
to estimate
resources
of other
minerals
by extrapolating
production,
reserves, and discovery ,* 9 ,30 and by relating the
reserves of a mineral to its crustal abundance 8 ,3 1--34. Estimates
of total resources for some minerals would have to include exotic
sources
(such as ocean nodules in the case of nickel and
manganese). For many minerals, resources can only be described
as large or vast.
It is meaningless to use concepts such as a countrys or the
worlds resource base to define the absolute limit of the supply
of a given mineral. The resource base of copper in the UK could be
thought of as that amount of copper which is available in the total
amount of rock in the UK; assuming an average content of 5.8 x
10m3 per cent**, a land surface of 244 019 km* (94 2 16 miles* ),
and considering the copper contained in only 1.61 km (one mile)
thickness of the earths crust, the resource base of copper in the
UK could be calculated as 6.3 x 10 o tonnes. This would be
equivalent to 10 000 years supply at the current world production
rate of copper, compared
with total world reserves presently
estimated at 3 14 x 1O6 tonnes. 35 Such a concept, while it does
give an upper limit, has little practical significance either to the
geologist or to the economist.
It perhaps lies behind statements
such as that recently
made by Boyd36
to the effect that

total resources are large enough to stagger the imagination

(p j, and may be used by those who examine the possibilities of
solving mineral shortages by mining whole rock and even sea
water.3

Nleasurement of reserves and resources

Table 1 gives data on estimates of reserves and resources for a

number of industrially
important
minerals. The current reserve
estimates
are for deposits
which
were considered
to be
economically
exploitable at the time the estimates were made and
1974

49

38 Pehrson, E.W. Estimates

of selected
world mineral supplies by cost range in
United Nations, Proceedings of the United
Nations
Scientific
Conference
on
the
Conservation and Utilization
of Resources,
Lake
York:

Success, New
United Nations

York,
1951)

Vol 2
pp 2-4

(New

include some deposits which had not been completely

explored
but which could be quantitatively
estimated; thus the estimates
include not only measured,
but also indicated
and inferred
reserves. The estimates of current resources include deposits which
may become
exploitable
ultimately - known
deposits
where
exploitation
awaits
more favourable
economic
or technical
conditions
and undiscovered
deposits
which are geologically
predictable.
The reserve ligures for 1947- 1948 in Table 13 8 are derived from
a number of different sources, and, while they are not directly
comparable
with the current reserve data, they illustrate how
estimates can change within a period of only twenty years. Iron
ore reserves increased
13 times; chromium
reserves increased
seven-fold;
bauxite and manganese
reserves increased approximately four-fold.
Reserves of copper increased three-fold,
and
silver, lead, and zinc reserves approximately
doubled. On the other
hand, tungsten and tin reserves decreased in the same period.
One of the chief difficulties in measuring mineral supplies is
unavailability
of data. The iron ore reserve figure for 1947-1948 in
Table 1 excludes ores in the USSR, although USSR iron reserves
now account
for 44% of the world tota!.24
and it must be
assumed that they were large in the earlier period; part of the
13-fold increase in reserves shown must be attributed
to the
inclusion of the USSR reserves in the current estimates. On the
other hand, current United Nations estimates of iron ore resources
do not include tonnages for the very significant deposits found in
Australia in the last decade.
The frequent changes in reserve and resource estimates reflect,
in addition to new information,
price changes, new discoveries and
technical break-throughs.
Uranium is the classic case of the effect
of price on reserve estimates: at a price of less than 54.17 ($10.00)
per tonne, US uranium reserves were estimated at 6.6 x lo5
tonnes; at a price of 512.50-541.70
($30.00-$100.00)
they rise to
about 2 x 10 tonnes. l 5 World reserves of silver have been
estimated
at 1.56 x 10 g based on 1968 prices; additional

Table 1. World mineral

1947-1948
and current

Mineral

Bauxite
Chromium

Notes to Table 1. 2 - data not available.

Early data from
Pehrson38
except for
silver (from Reference
39); current data
for silver, titanium,
chromium
and zinc
from Reference 26; current data for iron
from Reference
24; current reserves for
uranium
from
Reference
40; all other
current data from Reference 23.

tin
VI

Copper
Iron Ore
Lead
Manganese
Mercury (34.5kg (76 lb)
flasks x 103)
Silver (kg x IO61
Tin
Titanium
Tungsten (tonnes x 103)
Uranium (tonnes x 103)
Vanadtum (tonnes x 103)
Zinc

reserves and resources

1947-1948
reserves

1 400
100
100
19 000
40
1 000

(tonnes x lo6

Current

unless otherwise

data

Reserves

Resources

5 900
700
308
251 000
75
3 900

9 800
2 800
NA
782 500
NA*
15200

NA
85.54
6 000
NA
4 000
NA*
NA
70

RESOURCES

stated):

7 000
171.1
5 700
520
1 360
944
4 200
124

POLICY

15000
634.5
11 600
1 810
NA
2 500
18 100
NA

September

1974

reserves of 4.22 x 10 l g would be available at a price of &0.05/g

($O.l2/g).Z 6
The inclusion of large deposits of lateritic nickel ores, which are
abundant in the worlds tropical and semi-tropical areas and which
are now classified as reserves in Cuba, Guatemala, the Dominican
Republic,
the Philippines,
Indonesia,
and New Caledonia, has
made a significant difference
to world nickel reserves. This is
reflected in a comparison of nickel reserves published in 1965 and
1970.2 6 ,3 g estimates of reserves in 1970 in New Caledonia and,
Cuba each doubled within the five-year period, and the 1970
reserves in the Philippines,
Indonesia, the Dominican Republic,
and Guatemala together were twice the amount reported for the
entire non-communist
world (excluding Canada) in 1965.
The most recent revision of uranium reserves, based on new
assessments
of deposits in the US, Australia, and Southwest
Africa, showed an increase of nearly 50% in the five years between
copp er depoSits in the
1968 and 1973. 4o The large porphyry
southwestern
United States and Chile were known before the turn
of the century, but as Lowel12 (1970) asked, What could you
do with several million tons of 2% copper in 1900? (p 69).
Continuing
changes in economic
grade and technological
break-throughs
in extraction
and processing methods - as well as
political development
-- could well shift the present geographic
concentration
of copper reserves in Chile, Zambia, and Zaire in
favour of Peru, New Guinea, the Philippines, the Solomon Islands,
and Canada. Similarly, the current Middle Eastern domination of
world
petroleum
reserves
could
be radically
altered
by
exploitation
of the North Sea and the Alaskan deposits and the
Canadian tar sands and American oil shales. In the past two
decades Canadian reserves of iron ore have increased more than
six-fold;
natural
gas and petroleum
reserves have increased
three-fold;
nickel, copper, zinc and uranium reserves have all
grown significantly. 41 Together with Canada, South Africa now
holds a major share of the non-communist
worlds uranium
reserves. Australian iron reserves have increased enormously in the
past decade,. and resources are considered vast.2 4
The geographic concentration
of world resources follows the
pattern
of reserve distribution,
although new exploration
and
advances in research into metallogenic provinces may reveal new
areas of hitherto unknown deposits. New methods of extracting
minerals from offshore areas (tin), from the ocean floor (nickel
and manganese),
and technical advances in the extraction
and
processing
of minerals from clays (aluminium)
may make a
considerable
difference in the future pattern of mineral resource
distribution.
39 US Bureau of Mines. Mineral facts and
problems,
(Washington
DC:
US Govt
Print Office 1965) 1113~~
4ti US Bureau of Mines.Minera/s Yearbook
Vol 1 (Washington
DC: US Govt Print
Office 1973) 1303pp
./-I
41 Govett,
G.J.S.
and
Govett,
M.H.
resource
supplies (editors). Mineral
and
perspective,
(To
be
assessment
published
by Elsevier, Amsterdam) - in
press

RESOURCES

POLICY

A conceptual

framework

for reserves and resources

Given the dynamic character of reserve and resource estimates, a

schemes have
conceptual
framework
is useful. Classification
recently been proposed by McKelvey 8 and Zwartendyk.* O The
classification proposed by McKelvey is being used as the basis of a
resource inventory of the US and is illustrated in Table 2. Total
resources are divided into identified and unidentified
resources;

September

1974

51

._
4L Grossling, B.F. Future mineral supply,
Icon Geol65 (1970) PP 348-354
43 Nolan,
T.B.
The
future - non-renewable
Geol50
(1955) pp l-8

outlook
for the
resources.
Econ

the identified resources are subdivided into recoverable reserves,

paramarginal identified resources (recoverable at 1.5 times present
costs), and submarginal identified resources (possibly recoverable
at some future time with appropriate
cost and technical changes).
The unidentified
resources are subdivided into deposits which may
reasonably
be expected
to exist in known mining districts
(hypothetical
resources) and deposits which may be anticipated
in a favourable
geological environment
(speculative
resources)
where no deposits have yet been discovered. Although the writers
have some doubts
about
the necessity
or desirability
of
introducing
yet more terms (paramarginal,
hypothetical,
speculative), the McKelvey proposal
is an excellent
statement
of a
resource classification
scheme. However, its main drawback - in
the form presented - is its failure to emphasize the dynamic
character
of the resource categories
and to illustrate realistic
relative proportions
of these categories.
An alternative
approach is illustrated in Figure 1. The entire
area of the triangle ABC may be considered as representing one
hundred Beer cent of the total resources of any particular mineral
on a national,
regional, or global scale; offshore and oceanic
resources may be included. The absolute amount (eg tonnes) for
any particular metal represented by this area depends on a defined
lower limit of the economic grade over a stated period of time (as
indicated by the scale along line AB) and a defined limit to the
thickness of the earths crust which realistically may be explored
and mined.
Even with these parameters
defined,
some extraordinarily
sophisticated
geological deduction
is required to estimate how
many unidentified
mineral deposits may reasonably be expected
to occur within a particular region or in the world. Grossling4 *
argued that the worlds mineral supplies could be increased by at
least one order of magnitude
by mining at greater depths;
calculations
of the increase in resources
in the earths crust
compared
with the thin layer now mined are reassuring.4 3
However, it is not at all obvious how these deep deposits will be
found,
considering
the present
difficulties
geologists have in
locating ore deposits only a few metres (some tens of feet) below
the surface.41
The effect of environmental
restraints on both
exploration
and exploitation
will also influence the rate at which
new mineral deposits can be found and exploited.
The proportion
of known resources is given by the area of
triangle ADC on Figure 1. As more mineral deposits are found (as
ldentlfwd
Proved

resources

Probable

Undiscovered resources

Posslble

Recoverable
Reserves
Paramarginal
Identified

resources

Submarginal

I Hypothetical
, resources
I
I
I 1I known
I distrcts)
/

Table

2. Classification

sources proposed

52

of mineral

by McKelyey 8

I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
I

Speculative
resources

) 1In unknown
I districts)
I

o-I
+: -3
6;
=5
au3

3.
: g

2 m.
ps

-ir

relncreas~ng degree of certainty

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

1974

44 Lasky,

S.G. How tonnage-grade relations help predict ore reserves, Engineer

Min Journ (1950) pp 81-85

indicated along line CB by exploration

success), the portion of
known resources will increase. The discoveries of porphyry copper
deposits at Bougainville would cause a major shift in line AD, as
did the discoveries of iron ore and bauxite in Australia in the last
decade.
(It should
be noted that Figure 1 is a schematic
illustration; in practice line AD cannot be a straight line.)
The division between non-exploitable
deposits and reserves is
dictated at any given moment by the position of line EF, which is
a function of economic grade and technology.
A lowering of the
economic
grade resulting from rising demand (copper since the
turn of the century),
improved extraction
techniques
(lateritic
nickel ores), or a price increase (silver), will lower line EF,
transferring some non-exploitable
deposits to the reserve category.
A discovery
rate which keeps pace with demand (a constant
production:
reserve ratio) will tend to stabilize line EF. The line can
also move upwards; a decrease in world metal prices can cause a
reserve to become a non-exploitable
deposit - this was the case
with uranium in Canada in the late 1950s and recently with iron
ore in India. 4
Technical advances that lower the mineable grade of a mineral
will not only directly lower line EF, but -will also increase the
portion of newly discovered deposits which can be classified as
reserves. Technological
break-throughs
may be more important
than either price changes or exploration
successes in increasing
reserves; a new discovery
may add a new mine, but a new
technique
will increase
the efficiency
of mining generally,
especially if it allows lower grade ores to be mined,? 1 There is not
a simple arithmetic relation between grade and reserves; reducing
the mineable grade by half may result in an increase in reserves of
metal by a factor much greater than two. l 6 ,4 4
It is not reasonable to attempt to estimate the position of line
EF beyond a few decades. Today it is easily possible to conceive
of 0.25% copper being generally recoverable
economically
well
before the year 2000; it would be foolhardy to guess an economic
grade for copper in the year 2050 or 2100.
Estimates of known resources must decrease in reliability in the
order measured reserves > indicated reserves > inferred reserves >
non-exploitable
deposits (ie along line AC). The estimates also
Measured
WserYes
Indicated
reserves

1
Known resaurces

Inferred
rb?serWs

um

Non-exploitable
deposits
:
0

Total
c^-^,.-- -

A
I . \

Unknown
resources

Unknown resources

Figure
relation

1. Conceptual
between

and mineral

model

mineral

Lowest grade
considered passZiF
for same dot inod
time period

of the

resources

reserves

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

1974

//
B

Unknown
Exploration success

53

become increasingly less reliable as we move from C towards

since it is not possible to accurately
predict
the scale
exploration successes.

B,
of

Discussion

4s Govett,

G.J.S.
and
Govett,
M.H.
Mineral
resources
Canadian and
trade - double-edged
vulnerAmerican
ability, Cand inst Min Met 5uN 66 (1973)
pp 66-71
46 Fischman,
L.L. and Landsberg, H.H.
Adequacy
of nonfuel minerals and forest
resources in Population,
Resources and
the Environment
edited by R.G. Ridker
(Washington
DC: US Govt Print Office
1972)

54

A rational mineral resource policy cannot be formulated

at any
level - local, national, or international
- unless there is a clear
understanding
and
accepted
definition
of the
terms
of
measurement
of supplies of non-renewable
resources. Moreover,
failure to recognize
the essentially
dynamic
nature of the
measurement
of mineral
supplies
must
inevitably
lead to
implementation
of resource policies designed only for a static
situation. Some of the disagreement concerning the adequacy of
present mineral supplies is attributable
to lack of precision in the
use of terms and data; the current Canadian concern for its future
reserves has arisen largely from a failure to differentiate
between
measured reserves and non-exploitable
resources.4
In terms of total reserves and generous projections
of likely
exploration
success in finding mineral deposits
of presently
economic
grades, there is clearly an impending shortage of a
number of minerals. Specifically,
world reserves of manganese,
molybdenum,
tungsten,
aluminium,
copper,
lead, zinc, tin,
titanium, and sulphur are considered inadequate to meet projected
demand in the next 50 years. ,3 ,46
In terms of resources
there can be no serious deficiencies
provided
that new exploration
and, especially,
new mineral
extraction
and processing
techniques
are developed.
The
distinction between a reserve and a resource crisis must be clearly
recognized; the policies which must be designed to meet them are
quite different.
Ignoring the presBing problems of environmental
control, the legitimate aspirations of developing countries and thk
economic-political
problems of both the developed and the developing countries (see Govett and Govett2), there are two distinct and
different
policy requirements
to meet the problem of mineral
shortages:
(1) For the next 25 to 30 years minerals will probably have to
be provided from ore deposits which do not radically differ
from
those
being
exploited
at present.
Assuming
that
consumption
will continue
to increase, new mineral deposits
must be found. This implies accelerated exploration for shallow
buried
deposits
and the development
of new exploration
techniques to find ore deposits at greater depth. These aims can
probably
be realized, given adequate
research priority
and
finance and a political atmosphere in which the mining industry
is willing to continue and expand exploration.
(2) The long-term demand for minerals is most unlikely to be
met from ore deposits of present grades; inevitably, lower and
lower grade ores and alternative sources (eg the ocean floor) will
have to be exploited.
There will obviously be a demand for a
whole
new range of mineral
processing
and extraction
techniques and new sources of energy. A concentrated
research
effort should now be under way to develop the new technology
required so that it will be available when needed.

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

1974

Conclusions

The exponential
growth pattern of world mineral consumption
can only be broken by stabilizing world population and demand at
the industrialized
countries could
present levels. Theoretically
decide to reduce consumption;
it is extremely difficult to imagine
the less developed majority of the world agreeing to forego future
growth. It seems more realistic to accept the present growth
pattern as a model for the future and to design policies to meet
rising demand, rather than to base resource planning on a belief
that growth can be halted - or even significantly reduced - in the
foreseeable future.
Mineral supplies for the next few decades will be a serious
problem unless governments
and industry are willing to support
research at something like the levels that have been spent on space
research.
Unfortunately,
mineral shortages can and do appear
suddenly ; in a pattern
of rapidly
accelerating
consumption,
reserves which appear to be quite adequate for twenty years may
prove to be inadequate
for even five years. Realistic resource
policies cannot be designed unless the magnitude of the problem is
clearly recognized.
A plea is made for a much more rigorous
system
of measuring
the worlds supply
of non-renewable
resources. It would be most unfortunate
if a government believed
that its domestic reserves of a strategic mineral were adequate for
many decades only to find that 95% of the deposits were in fact
not reserves but only non-exploitable
resources for which the
existing extraction
and processing techniques
were inadequate.
The reverse situation would be equally unfortunate;
limited funds
should not be spent on research and exploration for those minerals
for which there are abundant reserves in the mistaken belief that
the deposits
are presently
not economically
or technically
exploitable.

RESOURCES

POLICY

September

1974

55