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Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Technological Forecasting & Social Change

Analysis of European mobility surveys and their potential to


support studies on the impact of electric vehicles on energy
and infrastructure needs in Europe
Guzay Pasaoglu a,b,, Alyona Zubaryeva a, Davide Fiorello c, Christian Thiel a
a
b
c

European Commission, Directorate-General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Westerduinweg 3, NL-1755 LE Petten, The Netherlands
Istanbul Technical University, Institute of Energy, Istanbul, Turkey
TRT Trasporti e Territorio srl, Milan, Italy

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 11 October 2012
Received in revised form 26 August 2013
Accepted 1 September 2013
Available online 29 September 2013
Keywords:
Electric vehicles
European national travel surveys
Charging profiles

a b s t r a c t
Projections show that CO2 emissions from road transport will continue to rise in the future if
adequate policy measures are not implemented. Electrically driven vehicle (EDV) deployment
is one way to reduce the CO2 emissions. EDV drive and charge patterns determine the resulting
electricity demand, emission reductions, future infrastructure requirements and the integration of non-dispatchable renewable electricity. In order to analyse the impact of EDVs on
European energy and infrastructure needs, the driving patterns of potential EDV users should
be analysed. Due to the lack of sufficient historical representative data on driving patterns with
EDVs, this study analyses whether European national travel surveys (NTS) can be a potential
data source to derive usage patterns for EDVs. We perform a meta-analysis of NTS from
9 European countries to assess their adequacy for analysing the impacts of EDVs on the
European electricity system. Several gaps in data availability and comparability are identified.
Except for the UK, European NTS are not detailed enough to assess EDV charging profiles,
which is also due to the methodological differences used for NTS data collection in the various
countries. We conclude that a dedicated survey needs to be developed to reliably estimate EDV
charging profiles.
2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Mobility of persons and goods is an essential component
in the competitiveness of European industry and services.
Mobility is also an essential right of citizens. The goal of the
EU's sustainable transport policy is to ensure that our transport
systems meet society's economic, social and environmental

The views expressed are purely those of the authors and may not in any
circumstances be regarded as stating an official position of the European
Commission.
Corresponding author at: European Commission, Directorate-General
Joint Research Centre, Institute for Energy and Transport, Westerduinweg
3, NL-1755 LE Petten, The Netherlands. Tel.: + 31 224565150; fax: + 31
224565616.
E-mail address: guzaypasaoglu@gmail.com (G. Pasaoglu).
0040-1625/$ see front matter 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.002

needs. Demand for road transportation in Europe has been


increasing significantly over recent decades. Between 1995
and 2008, the total number of European passenger travel
kilometres increased by 25% from 3800 to 4800 billion [1].
Nowadays, 75% of travel demand is met by passenger cars; the
other 25% is met by train, bus, airplane and ship [2]. Although
policy measures aim to improve the attractiveness of more
environmentally friendly modes and encourage the multi-modal
optimisation of transport, passenger cars will remain an important means to satisfy personal transport demand [3].
Due to globalisation, changing customer needs and economic and environmental pressures, among other things, the
road transport sector in Europe is undergoing a continuous
transformation process. For this sector, the European Union
and its Member States have introduced regulations [4] that,
through increased fuel efficiency and other measures, aim to

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G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

reach the 2020 target of reducing average CO2 emissions1 to


95 g of CO2 per kilometre for new passenger vehicles and
135 g of CO2 per kilometre for new vans2 [46]. It has been
shown, however, that in the event of business as usual, CO2
emissions from transport would remain one third higher
than their 1990 level by 2050 in Europe [7]. Part of the CO2
reduction for surface road transport can be achieved by technological measures such as the use of biofuels, more efficient
tyres, air conditioning systems and electrical, hydrogen and
hybrid technologies, while other contributions may come
from other policies, e.g. eco-driving, new taxation schemes,
or consumer awareness [79]. The role of innovative technology is also confirmed by recent academic works [1012],
which indicate that greater savings can be achieved through
improvements to current power-traINS and the development
and deployment of new, mainly electrified, power trains.
While battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric
vehicles are on sale at European dealers today, the commercialisation of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles in Europe is not
expected to begin before 2015 [13]. To stimulate the uptake
of electrified vehicles, the EU Member States have announced
national targets for the deployment of battery electric
vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV),
as summarised by Pasaoglu et al. [12]. There are several
studies analysing the effect of the large-scale deployment
of electrically driven vehicles (EDVs), i.e. BEVs and PHEVs,
in Europe up to 2050 [1218]. Zubaryeva et al. [19] have
conducted an expert study on the market penetration of EVs
in Europe, which shows that there is uncertainty regarding
their market penetration, while a comparative overview by
Pasaoglu et al. [12] reveals that the total assumed market
penetration rates of BEVs and PHEVs in Europe in different
studies vary between 3% and 25% for 2020 and 22% and 85%
for 2050. Currently available EDVs have a well-to-wheel
efficiency advantage even over the currently best available
internal combustion engine (ICE) cars (2426% versus 16
23%) [20]. Already with the current European electricity mix,
the average well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of EDVs are significantly lower than those of ICE vehicles (6784 g CO2/km
versus 143 g CO2/km for a compact-class vehicle) [20]. The
planned decarbonisation of the European electricity supply
system can further increase the CO2 advantages of EDVs
in Europe [21]. However, consumer driving and charging
patterns will determine changes in electricity demand and
the potential impact reduction in terms of well-to-wheel
(WtW) CO2 emissions, future infrastructure requirements,
and greater integration of non-dispatchable renewable electricity. The integration of electric vehicles in electric power
systems poses several technical, economic, policy and regulatory challenges [22]. In order to implement effective measures at the level of the power system (i.e. in terms of
shaping load profiles) and at regulatory level (i.e. in terms of
charging infrastructure requirements) it is important to be
able to anticipate when and where charging would occur.
This information can also support strategic considerations of

1
From an average of 140 g of CO2 per kilometre in 2010 (based on the
New European Drive Cycle (NEDC)).
2
From an average of 203 g of CO2 per kilometre in 2007 (based on NEDC).

EV automakers, which, due to the limited range of current


electric vehicle models, could better segment the market of
potential EV customers [23].
The present research, which is part of a larger study aiming
to develop representative load profiles for several countries
in Europe, is motivated by the approach chosen to derive EDV
load profile scenarios based on a detailed knowledge of how
vehicle owners use their current ICE cars. These load profile
scenarios can then support decisions on the regulatory framework, power system management, EV design and segmentation, as well as appropriate infrastructure provision.
Our central question in this work is: which publicly
accessible data can be used to identify future driving and
charging patterns of electric vehicle owners in order to make
representative assumptions for national/EU level analysis
and aggregation?
In the current European EV landscape, such detailed data
on electric vehicle driving and charging patterns are either
obtained through captured fleet tests, often not disclosed, or
are collected within long-term publicly co-funded projects
with restricted dissemination due to the proprietary nature
of the data of consortium partners. Also, the representativeness of these data on a national scale is difficult to assess. Due
to this lack of publicly available large-scale data on the
real-time driving patterns of electric vehicle owners, the next
best source of representative and publicly available data,
which is used in the literature for analysis, is national travel
surveys (NTS). In Europe, several countries perform national,
regional and local travel surveys. In this paper, we review,
analyse and compare existing European travel surveys to
understand whether their level of detail is sufficient for
analysis of the driving and charging profiles of future EDV
owners. In addition, we review the existing literature on how
NTS could be used to assess EDV impacts on the power system
and derive corresponding conclusions.
2. Estimating EDV charging proles
As consumer driving and charging patterns will determine changes in electricity demand and potential environmental impact reductions [24], it is important to base the
future estimation of such patterns on reliable and representative data [2529]. Recent work in this field uses simplified
times and magnitudes for vehicle fleet charging assumptions.
European studies by Lund and Kempton [30] used annual
EV fleet consumption and driving distances to study the
potential of electric vehicles for renewable electricity integration in Denmark. Peterson et al. [31] used hypothetical
assumptions as to time, consumption and place for EV charging
to estimate the costs and benefits of using vehicle batteries for
peak shaving. Among the few European studies that use real
statistical data to build EV charging assumptions, one [32] uses
Finland's National Travel Survey to obtain driving profiles to
build a dispatch model.
In order to better understand how NTS can be used to
estimate driving and charging patterns of future EV fleets,
and in the absence of literature in this field addressing the
European situation, we looked at a series of studies based on
US NTS or direct consumer surveys. The potential impacts
of PHEV integration on the electricity grid in California are
discussed in Axsen and Kurani [33]. This study is based on

G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

data collected via an in-depth, multi-part, online survey and


from driving diaries kept by approximately 3000 new-car
buyers. These data were used later to construct an electricity
dispatch model for California [34] and assess potential access
by PHEV users to a recharging infrastructure at home [35].
Sioshansi et al. [36] used a sample of real-world driving data
(227 vehicles) to construct trip profiles for PHEV consumption, charging and dispatch for Ohio and Texas.
A number of studies for the construction of charging
and driving profiles of PHEVs [24,3739] use data from the
National Household Travel Survey (NHTS), as they seem
sufficiently comprehensive to derive driving and parking
patterns for individual cars. In a more industry-oriented study,
Pearre at al. [23] argue that NHTS data are not fully reliable for
determining PHEV range capabilities. Researchers performed
an empirical GPS-assisted observation of 470 vehicles for more
than 50 days to derive US drivers' daily range needs, maximum
range and distribution of range needs. Smith et al. [40], with
the help of GPS data loggers, collected data from 76 drivers in
Winnipeg to characterise driving behaviour for PHEV consumption and charging evaluation. Finally, in a study focusing
on the potential diffusion of PHEVs in the Australian state of
Victoria, large amounts of census data on driving distance were
incorporated into a PHEV market diffusion model. All studies
report the limited number of trip samples for different market
segments, focusing predominantly on potential PHEV impacts,
while other categories of EDVs, e.g. battery electric vehicles
(BEVs), are not considered. Overall, it has been shown that NTS
could provide a source of data to construct potential charging
and driving profiles of electric vehicle drivers based on the
current driving behaviour of internal combustion engine car
owners. However, such an NTS has to have very detailed
information and cover the whole activity pattern (driving and
parking). Further below, we review the existing European
travel surveys.

3. Data mining
Data mining refers to extracting or mining knowledge
from large amounts of data [41]. Fayyad et al. [42] and Han
et al. [41] argue that there are several stages of data mining,
including: i) retrieval of data from a large database; ii) selection
of relevant subsets to work with; iii) methodology identification; iv) data pre-processing; v) pattern discovery; and
vi) knowledge postprocessing. In our work, driving patterns
are very detailed descriptions of personal mobility. Therefore, only direct surveys asking individuals about their trips
or data-loggers could provide this kind of information. The
data mining of publicly available travel survey data in Europe in
our study was a 4-step procedure, following the overall concept
described above. First, an inventory of major existing surveys
at national, regional and local level was compiled to identify
all possible sources of data. Secondly, a literature search was
performed to identify parameters used to assess charging and
driving profiles of electric vehicles for further NTS evaluation.
Thirdly, we proceeded to characterise the surveys, their scope,
methodology used, sample size and frequency of conduct.
Finally, we assessed each selected survey against the matrix of
parameters developed in stage 2 to determine possible gaps
between and within the NTS and the matrix.

43

3.1. Inventory of existing national travel surveys


The search for available travel surveys focused on selected
European countries (Denmark, Germany, Italy, Finland, France,
Netherlands, Spain and Sweden). All publicly available, relatively large-scale travel mobility surveys that are performed
either by national authorities of the selected European countries
or, where those are not available, by regional authorities (local
surveys) were identified. The focus on NTS or regional travel
surveys was necessary to ensure that the surveys are representative for the entire population of the countries in question. The
following representative surveys were found:
UK national travel survey [43];
German national travel survey (Mobilitt in Deutschland)
[44];
French national travel survey (Enqute nationale transports
et dplacements 2008) [45];
Spanish national travel survey (Encuesta de Movilidad
2002007) [46];
Italian travel survey (AUDIMOB/ISFORT) [47];
Finnish travel survey (Statistics Finland) [48];
Swedish travel survey (SIKA Institute) [49];
Danish travel survey (Transportvaneundersgelsen) [50];
Dutch national travel survey [51].
3.2. Characterisation of existing national travel surveys
The NTS found were characterised in order to determine
whether the data sets can be considered representative of
overall national mobility with private cars. Additionally, accessible EU local mobility surveys were analysed in order to
establish if they are representative enough to derive the driving
patterns of the EU Member States. Therefore, all identified
travel surveys were initially assessed against several criteria:
data collection method, sample size (individuals), frequency of
survey (annual, monthly, etc.), and year of last release.
In nine EU Member States (United Kingdom, Germany,
France, Spain, Italy, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Netherland),
a national travel survey is carried out on a regular or irregular
basis. For each survey, a different set of data is publicly available.
The structure and content of the existing national surveys
for the nine Member States are summarised in Table 1 and
described below.
3.2.1. UK
The United Kingdom National Travel Survey (UK NTS) is
the main source of data on personal travel patterns in Great
Britain (GB). Data from the UK NTS is used extensively by the
UK Department for Transport to monitor changes in travel
patterns and to inform the development of policy. The survey
is repeated annually.
The United Kingdom NTS 2008 (latest available year for
the full dataset) is based on a random sample of 15 048
private households, drawn from the postcode address file.
The sample is designed to ensure that the addresses for each
quarter are representative of the total GB population. The NTS
uses two data collection methods: face-to-face interviewing,
using computer assisted personal interviewing (CAPI), and
self-completion of a 7-day travel record.

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G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

Table 1
Summary features of the travel surveys.
Country/source

Collection method

Sample size (individuals)

Frequency

Last update

Reference

UK:
UK National Travel
Survey
Germany:
Mobilitt in Deutschland
2008
France:
Enqute nationale transports
et dplacements 2008
Spain:
Encuesta de Movilidad
20062007
Italy:
AUDIMOB/ISFORT
Finland:
Statistics Finland
Sweden:
SIKA Institute
Denmark:
Transportvaneundersgelsen
The Netherlands:
Dutch national travel survey

CAPI + Self-compiled
travel diaries

15 048

Yearly

2010

[33]

PAPI, CATI,
CAWI

60 713 individuals

6 years

2008

[35]

PAPI

20 200 individuals

Some years
(no regular updates)

2008

[36]

PAPI

49 027 individuals

Only one survey


carried out to date

2007

[38]

CATI

15 000

Yearly

2010

[39]

CATI

2200
(different sample each month)
41 000
(27 000 valid responses)
56 210

Monthly

2011

[42]

Some years
(no regular updates)
Some years
(no regular updates)
Yearly

2006

[43]

2009

[45]

2009

[44]

CATI
CATI
CATI + Self-compiled
written questionnaire

77 317

The United Kingdom NTS collects detailed information


on the key characteristics of each participating household
and any vehicle to which they have access. In addition, each
individual within the household is interviewed and then
asked to complete a 7-day travel record. Some results of the
UK NTS 2008, as well as the methodology, are presented in
[43] and in Section 3.4.
3.2.2. Germany
The German mobility survey Mobilitt in Deutschland (MID)
2008[44] is the most recent available survey for Germany, which
allows a wide and comparable description of mobility in the 16
German Bundeslnder (federal states). The full survey is repeated
every 6 years, while a more restricted panel is implemented
annually.
MID [44] covers 25992 households and 60713 individuals.
During the survey, three methods were used to collect data:
paper and pencil interview (PAPI), computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI), and computer-assisted web interview
(CAWI).
MID [44] collects detailed information on the key characteristics of each participating household and any vehicle to
which they have access. In addition, each individual within
the household is interviewed and then asked to complete a
1-day travel record. Clearing House Transport [52] presents
several data sets and methodological documents about the
survey. Section 3.5 discusses the scope of the survey and
presents several indicative statistics obtained from MID [44].
3.2.3. France
The French NTS 20072008 (Enqute Nationale Transports et Dplacements) has been developed jointly by the
statistical office of the French Ministry of Transport and
Environment, the Institute for Transport Security and several
funding partners.
It is conducted every 1015 years and collects detailed
information on the key characteristics of each participating

household, driving licences and type and number of cars


available for each household. Only one individual within the
household is interviewed and asked to complete a 1-day
travel record. The survey covers 20 200 households. Throughout the data collection phase, the PAPI method is used. The
Ministre de l'cologie, du Dveloppement Durable et de
l'nergie [45] presents the methodology used in the survey
and several results of the French NTS 20072008. Section 3.6
discusses the scope of the survey and presents several indicative
statistics obtained from the French NTS 20072008.
Another relevant local survey in France is that carried out
in the metropolitan area of Lyon, France, where almost
11 000 households are asked about their mobility habits
using the PAPI method. Each household member older than
5 years of age is interviewed (more than 25 000 individuals).
All trips by all modes during working days are considered (no
week-ends and holidays). The population is classified by age,
gender, number of people per household, working status,
education and car availability. Trips are described by trip
mode, purpose and area type. Detailed car driving profiles
and parking places are not collected in this survey. Le Sytral
[53] provides a detailed report on the study.
3.2.4. Spain
The Spanish NTS (Encuesta de Movilidad) 20062007 has
been designed with the aim of collecting information for
infrastructure planning. The Spanish NTS collects information
on the key characteristics of each participating household,
driving licences, and type and number of cars available for
each household. Only one individual within the household is
interviewed and asked to complete a 1-day travel record. The
survey covers 49 027 households. The PAPI method is used
during the data collection phase. The Ministerio De Fomento
[46] presents the detailed methodology and some results of
the Spanish NTS 20062007. Section 3.7 discusses the scope
of the survey and presents several indicative statistics from
the Spanish NTS 20062007.

G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

3.2.5. Italy
Every year, ISFORT (Istituto Superiore di Formazione e
Ricerca per i Trasporti) carries out around 15 000 interviews
in order to investigate the population's mobility in Italy by
asking a combination of quantitative (how, where, when)
and qualitative questions (why and with which degree of
satisfaction). The survey collects information on key characteristics covering demographical questions, the economy, household income and expenditure, individual mobility, availability
of vehicles, and infrastructures. ISFORT [47] presents aggregated statistics at national and regional level and the detailed
methodology for the survey. Section 3.8 discusses the scope of
the survey and presents several indicative statistics from the
Italian NTS 2010.
In addition, a regional mobility survey was carried out in
the Lombardy region in 2002 [54,55]. The main purpose of
this survey was to establish a database on passenger transport
demand in order to build origin-destination matrices, which
are useful for local administrations in transport planning
processes. The survey was divided into two phases. The first
phase consisted of a series of CATIs with residents, while the
second involved PAPIs to identify travellers in the region by
each travel mode. Almost 296 000 households were involved
in the CATI phase, comprising around 580000 individuals
(trips by each household member older than 10 years were
described). Collected household data included household size,
car availability, and the availability of other transport modes,
while the individual data collected comprised age, gender,
education, driving licence possession, working status, and
work position. Trips by each individual older than 11 years of
age were recorded in terms of trip origin and destination, start
time, end time, modes, and trip purpose. However, data on the
location where the car is parked between two trips and parking
place availability at home, which provide valuable information
for studies focusing on prospective EDV charging patterns,
were not collected in this survey.
3.2.6. Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark
The NTS conducted for Finland [48], Sweden [49], the
Netherlands [51] and Denmark [50] include the total number
of trips per year and distances travelled per year.
3.2.7. Poland
Zarzdu Komunikacji Miejskiej w Gdyni [56] presents a
local mobility survey conducted by the municipality of Gdynia
in 2010 in order to describe the mobility habits of its
inhabitants and connections within the so-called Tricity, a
metropolitan area including Gdynia, Gdask and Sopot. The
population is classified by age, gender, working status, and
car availability, whereas trips are classified by destination,
purpose, time of travel, and number of trips per day by age,
gender, purpose and mode. Daily patterns of start times for
trips by car or public modes are also available in this survey.
The aggregated results are presented by Zarzdu Komunikacji
Miejskiej w Gdyni [56].
3.3. Gap analysis of the existing NTS for EU Member States
Most of the NTS in the various Member States are performed in order to monitor the general mobility behaviour of
the national population over a long time series. Moreover, the

45

surveys are designed to quantify the traffic on roads, estimate


the number of trips during peak hours to support modelling
applications, and determine transport demand. They can be
used to study the impact of changes in demographics or
economic conditions on mobility patterns as well as to study
the impacts of certain policy measures. The research question
for our study is not necessarily aligned with the objectives of
the NTS. Nevertheless, we aim with our analysis to assess if
the NTS have the potential to at least cover parts of the input
data required for our study.
The analysis of the existing NTS aims to assess the
alignment of the data they provide with the data required
to derive the driving patterns of existing passenger vehicles
so that possible recharge pattern scenarios for potential EDVs
in the EU Member States concerned can be derived. All
identified travel surveys were analysed against the matrix of
criteria necessary for the correct estimation of future electric
vehicle charging and driving profiles (Table 2). The rationale
behind the criteria chosen is as follows:
C1: Trip diaries collecting data from drivers compiling
trip diaries at regular intervals is reported in the literature as
the method that provides most detail on the actual behaviour
of a car (driver) during a given timeframe [33,35]. The level
of aggregation of the survey data (C2) (individual, household,
city, etc.) also contributes to the detail needed for reliable
approximation of driving behaviour at population level. As
the driving patterns of passenger cars may vary between the
days of the week, it is essential to have at least a one-week
record of the drive patterns of passenger cars, so criterion C3
was included in the matrix [23]. Criterion C4 is chosen since
the type and duration of the parking of passenger cars play an
important role in potential accessibility to charging stations
and in charging duration [32,35]. Different socio-economic
features of future EV consumers may impact the size and
characteristics of EDV markets [19], so criterion C5 was
chosen to address this issue. Another important parameter is
vehicle size (C6), as it allows the fuel consumption of passenger
cars to be determined, and hence the potential electricity
consumption of a future electric vehicle fleet [10]. Additionally,
due to the range limitations of current electric vehicle models,
they are seen as an option largely for urban mobility [19], so
determining the shares of urban versus rural mobility (C7) in a
given area will provide better forecasting precision for future
EV load profile estimation. Moreover, as infrastructure plans
and policies are implemented at national level, the data used to
foresee the impact of electric vehicles in a given country have
to be representative enough for the country (C8).
Table 2
Criteria table.
Criterion ID

Description of data

Requirement

C1
C2
C3
C4
C5

Type
Aggregation
Surveyed period
Parking details
Individual details

C6
C7

Vehicle details
Living area

C8

Geographical coverage

Trip diaries
Individual data
7 days 24 h
Duration and place
Information on
socioeconomic features
Vehicle size and age
Segmentation in rural
and urban area
Entire country

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G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

Table 3
Statistics on UK trips by trip purpose, mode and area.

Table 4
Modal split of UK trips by type of area (%).

General statistics all modes


Average number of trips/day
Average distance (km)
Average time (min)

2.63
11.3
23

Mode share by trip purpose (%)


Trip purpose

All modes

Car

Commuting + business
Study
Shopping
Other

19
11
20
50

28
1
20
51

Trip purpose

All modes

Car

Commuting + business
Study
Shopping
Other

17.0
3.3
4.4
11.4

18.9
8.3
4.4
11.4

Area

All modes

Car

City centre
Suburbs
Rural

11.4
12.7
16.3

12.2
13.7
16.5

Average trip distance (km)

The criteria are summarised in Table 2.


In the remaining part of this section, we first provide
some examples of the kind of data that can be derived from
the travel surveys. A meta-analysis is then carried out of the
presence/absence and completeness of the information
described above and summarised in Table 2.
3.4. UK NTS 2008 database
The UK NTS 2008 database incorporates a detailed description of all trips3 made in a reference week. Additionally, socioeconomic information on the individuals is available.
Table 3 illustrates that, on average, individuals in the UK
make somewhat less than 3 trips every day. Thirty per cent
of the trips are for professional and educational reasons,
whereas one fifth is for shopping.
Table 4 illustrates that the use of private motorised modes
increases as population density decreases. On average, almost
two thirds of trips are made by private modes (cars or
motorcycles). Not surprisingly, people living in the city centres
use cars less than the average. Modal preference does not vary
by gender, but does vary significantly among age classes
(Table 5). People between 50 and 60 years of age use private
transportation modes more than people aged between 17
and 29.

Motorised privatea
Public
Bicycle
Walking
Other
a

With the exclusion of short pedestrian trips.


Customised extracts from MID [44] (Mobilitt in Deutschland 2008),
Basisstichprobe Deutschland, Datenstze, Tabellen, Methodenbericht, Nutzerhandbuch
und Ergebnisbericht in, 2008. Obtainable at: http://www.htmldb-hosting.com/
pls/htmldb/f?p=MIT08:1.
4

Area
City centres

Suburbs

Rural

64
10
2
22
2

55
18
2
24
2

66
7
2
24
2

73
5
2
18
2

Car + motorcycle.

while Table 6 summarises the alignment between the data


needed to derive the driving and parking patterns of current
passenger cars and the data available from MID [44].
Table 6 illustrates that, on average, individuals in Germany
make more than 3 trips every day. Private modes (cars or
motorcycles) account for more than half of total trips. This
share is lower in city centres and higher in rural areas. The car
usage share is greater for commuting and business trips than
for other trips. Distances by car are longer for educational
purposes, but the modal share of cars among young people
(b 24 years) is much lower than that for older people (N 25).
Males (especially those aged 2560 years) drive for longer
distances than females.
3.6. French NTS 20072208 database
Individual travel data from the French NTS 20072008
are not publicly available. The Ministre de l'cologie,
du Dveloppement Durable et de l'nergie [45] provides
aggregated tables, including the information presented in
Tables 810.
Tables 79 illustrate that two thirds of all trips are by
private motorised modes and 75% of the trips are for
commuting purposes. In suburban and rural areas, about
90% of commuting trips are made by car or motorcycle. Only
the youngest and oldest commuters have a slightly lower
usage of private modes. Average distances for cars are not
available, but the general information provided in Table 9
shows that males travel significantly longer distances than
females.
3.7. Spanish NTS database
The Direccin General de Programacin Econmica [46] of
the Ministerio de Fomento publishes aggregated tables obtained
from the Spanish NTS (Encuesta de Movilidad) 20062007,
including the information presented in Tables 1012.
Table 5
Modal split of UK trips by gender and age (%).

3.5. German NTS 2008 database


Infas-DLR [57] presents the survey report by MID [44].
Table 6 gives some aggregated results4 obtained from [44],

All

All Gender

Motorised 64
privatea
Public
10
Bicycle
2
Walking 22
Other
2
a

Age
b17 1729 3049 5060 6070 N70

64

65 56

53

69

72

69

64

10
1
23
2

10
9
2
2
21 31
2
3

17
2
25
3

9
2
19
2

7
2
18
2

10
1
18
2

13
1
20
3

Car + motorcycle.

G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150


Table 6
Statistics on trips in Germany.

47

Table 8
Modal split of trips by age and gender in France (%). *Private (only personal
trips, excluding the business related trips).
All modes

Car
All Commuters

Average number of trips/day


Average distance (km)
Average time (min)

3.42
11.5
24

14.7
21

Trip purpose (%)


Commuting + business
Study
Shopping
Other

21
6
21
52

34
1
22
43

Trip purpose

All modes

Car

Commuting + business
Education
Shopping
Other

16.1
8.1
8
14

19.9
23.6
6.7
19

Area

All modes

Car

City centre
Suburbs
Rural

10.6
11.6
12.2

14.4
14.4
15.3

Age

All modes female

Car female

1824
2544
4559
6064
N65

14.1
10.6
9.9
10.2
7.2

15.7
11.2
10.7
11.6
8.3

All modes male

Car male

14.3
15.9
15.8
10.1
8.8

16.8
19.1
19.4
13.0
10.8

All Gender Age


F
Motorised 67 75 73
private*
Public
8 13 15
Bicycle
3 3 2
Walking 22 9 10

1517 1824 2534 3554 5564 N65

78 63

68

74

77

73

45

11 12
3 10
8 15

17
3
12

16
2
8

12
2
9

13
1
13

25
4
26

Average trip distance (km)

1824
2544
4559
6064
N65

describing mobility in Italy. Compared to the other countries,


Italy has the highest share of private motorised mode usage.
4. Summary of ndings from the NTS analysis

Source: derived from MID (2008).

The tables illustrate that private motorised trips account


for less than 50% of total trips. In city centres, only 3 in 10 trips
are made by car or motorcycles, which is lower than the shares
observed in the other countries. Private motorised modes are
used much more by males than females. Additionally, older
people drive cars and motorcycles much less than other
individuals.
3.8. Italian NTS database
ISFORT [47] presents a summary report on mobility in
Italy. However, mobility data on individuals are not publicly
available. Table 13 summarises some general indicators
Table 7
Modal split of trips by type of area in France (%).
All

Motorised privatea
Public
Bicycle
Walking
a

Car + motorcycle.

67
8
3
22

Commuters
All

Area
City centres

Suburbs

Rural

75
13
3
9

66
20
3
11

90
5
1
4

87
2
2
9

The scopes of the existing NTS for 9 EU Member States are


discussed. Their potential use to generate reasonable recharge
scenarios for potential EDVs in these Member States is analysed.
The results of the analysis are summarised in Table 14.
There is a very good correspondence between the information provided by the UK NTS 2008 and the data needs for
deriving drive cycles to generate possible EDV recharging
scenarios for the UK. Therefore, in our view, the UK NTS 2008
data can be used to generate reasonable recharging scenarios
for EDVs in UK. However, it should be kept in mind that
the sampling ratio is not published in the UK NTS 2008. Thus,
it is difficult to judge the representativeness for the entire
country.
Existing data in MID [44] has good coverage for generating
possible recharging patterns for potential EDVs in Germany.
However, MID [44] includes only a 1-day travel record for each
individual, rather than seven days of one week. Even more
important, the survey does not cover parking choices for each
trip. Therefore, it can be concluded that the MID survey is not
Table 9
Statistics on trips in France.
All modes
Average number of trips/day
Average distance (km)
Average time (min)

3.1
8
17

Average trip distance (km)


Area

All modes

City centre
Suburbs
Rural

6.6
10.5
9.6

Age

All modes female

1417
1824
2564
N65

4.9
8.5
7.7
6.1
All modes male

1417
1824
2564
N65

5.5
8.5
10.3
7.4

48

G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

Table 10
Modal split of trips by type of area in Spain (%).
All

Motorised privatea
Public
Bicycle or walking
Walking
a

Table 12
Statistics on trips in Spain.

Area

42
10
46
2

General

City centres

Suburbs

Rural

29
25
43
3

43
8
47
2

50
5
43
2

Average number of trips/day


Average time (min)

2.8
22

Trip purpose (%)


Commuting + business
Study
Shopping
Other

Car + motorcycle.

as comprehensive as the UK NTS for generating potential


recharging scenarios for EDVs in Germany.
As the French data are presented in an aggregated manner
by the Ministre de l'cologie, du Dveloppement Durable et
de l'nergie [45], trip details such as departure and arrival
times and parking places are not defined in the French NTS
20072008 database. Furthermore, trip patterns for each
individual over the entire week also cannot be derived from
the database. Publicly accessible data from the French NTS
20072008 are thus not sufficient to generate reasonable
recharging patterns for potential EDVs in France.
Essential trip details (such as departure and arrival times
or parking places) for generating plausible recharging
patterns for potential EDVs in Spain are not available in the
Spanish NTS 20062007. Additionally, trip patterns for each
individual are collected only for 1 day instead of the entire
week. Therefore, it can be concluded that the Spanish NTS
20062007 is not comprehensive enough to generate plausible
recharging patterns for potential EDVs in Spain.
Due to the aggregated nature of the survey, trip details
such as departure and arrival times and parking places are
not available in the Italian NTS. Furthermore, trip patterns are
not surveyed for the entire week in the Italian NTS. Therefore,
we can conclude that the scope of the existing Italian NTS is too
narrow to derive plausible recharge scenarios for potential
EDVs in Italy.
Also, the coverage of the publicly accessible Finnish,
Swedish, Danish and Dutch NTS is not broad enough to
generate plausible recharge scenarios for potential EDVs in
these Member States.
In summary, it can be concluded that only the UK National
Survey meets the data needs for conducting a comprehensive
scenario analysis for EDV recharge profiles. In principle, the
German NTS has a similar level of detail as the UK NTS but
does not include each individual's trips for an entire week and
lacks details on parking (where and how long cars remain
parked during the day). The other national travel surveys

present the data only at aggregated level as mentioned in


Section 3. Such data can be used to identify different travel
behaviours across different conditions (e.g. for different population groups or different areas) but are not helpful for deriving
representative driving patterns for cars.
5. Conclusions and prospects for further research
Our analysis revealed that the national travel surveys
currently publicly available in European Member States are
not detailed enough to derive EDV charging profile assumptions for further assessment. Therefore, either the surveys
should be adapted to incorporate new parameters such as
driving and parking patterns (on an hourly basis for at least a
representative week), trip diaries and vehicle details, or new,
more dedicated surveys should be conducted to derive EDV
charging profile assumptions. Another challenge regarding
the comparability of data from various country surveys
concerns the slight differences in methodologies applied.
Our methodology can also be applied to other countries and
support conclusions as to the suitability of their surveys for
deriving load profile estimations. Currently, several EDV field
tests are ongoing in Europe, such as Green E-motion [58],
MOLECULES [59] and others. They will generate driving and
charging profiles for selected drivers in several European
cities and areas. Deriving driving and charging profiles from
wider general car-driver travel surveys can help to ensure
charging profiles based on a statistically robust approach and
reflecting current car use patterns. Green Ii et al. [25] argue
that in order to develop a reliable EDV impact model direct
Table 13
Statistics on trips in Italy.
General
Average number of trips/day
Average distance (km)
Average time (min)

Table 11
Modal split of trips by age and gender in Spain (%).

30
13
12
45

3.42
11.8
21

Modal split
All

Motorised
privatea
Public
Bicycle or
walking
Other
a

Gender

Age

b14

1529

3039

4049

5064

N65

42

34

51

27

45

56

55

40

17

10
46

13
52

7
40

5
63

15
38

9
33

9
36

8
50

9
72

Car + motorcycle.

Motorised private
Public
Walking + bicycle

70
10
20

Trip purpose
Commuting + business + education
Shopping and personal business
Other
Source: based on Isfort 2007 data.

43
25
32

G. Pasaoglu et al. / Technological Forecasting & Social Change 87 (2014) 4150

49

Table 14
Applicability of existing travel survey data for deriving recharging scenarios for EDVs.
Description of data

Requirement

UK

DE

FR

ES

IT

FI

SE

DK

NL

Type
Aggregation
Surveyed period
Parking details
Individual details
Vehicle details
Living area
Geographical coverage

Trip diaries
Individual data
7 days 24 h
Duration and place
Information on socio-economic features
Vehicle size and age
Segmentation in rural and urban area
Entire country

Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes
No
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

No
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

Yes
No
No
No
Yes
No
Yes
Yes

surveys are necessary to determine at least two criteria:


where EDVs will be clustered together (parked) and how
high the concentration of EDVs will be in each cluster. In
our empirical assessment, we would like to extend the list
of parameters necessary for a profound assessment of EDV
impacts on the grid and infrastructural requirements. In conclusion, a direct mobility survey is certainly required for EU
Member States in order to better assess the impact of EDV
usage on the electricity system and energy market and to plan
infrastructural investments. On the other hand, conducting
travel surveys for each EU Member State requires a large-scale
survey. Therefore, clustering EU Member States based on their
population, private car usage ratio, purchase power and geographical location profile and then conducting mobility surveys
for selected representative EU Member States would be a good
start towards meeting the data gap in this area.
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Guzay Pasaoglu is an Assistant Professor in Istanbul Technical University,


Institute of Energy. Previously, she worked 4 years as a Scientic Fellow at
the Institute for Energy and Transport, DG Joint Research Center of the
European Commission and has a PhD from the Department of the Industrial
Engineering, Bogazici University. Her most recent works were published in
Energy Policy Journal.
Alyona Zubaryeva is a Scientic Fellow at the Institute for Energy and
Transport, DG Joint Research Center of the European Commission and has
a PhD from the Department of the Environmental and Biological Sciences
and Technologies of the University of Salento. Her most recent works
were published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice and Renewable Energy
journals.

Davide Fiorello, graduated in Statistical and Economical Science, he has


specialised in transport demand analysis and modelling, including integrated land use-transport models and other modelling approaches like System
Dynamics. In the last ten years he has participated in several research
projects focused on strategic modelling for the assessment of transport
policy, and the analysis of linkages between transport, economy and
environment. He is interested in economic issues with special relation to
the criticism of neo-classical economic theory.

Christian Thiel is the project leader of the Energy Systems Technology


Modelling Action in the Energy Systems Evaluation Unit, at the Institute for
Energy and Transport, DG Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Before joining the European Commission, he worked for 12 years in the
European Engineering Centre of Opel. He holds a Masters degree in
Environmental Science (Geooekologie) from the Technical University Braunschweig, a bachelor's degree in Biology from Universit Paris VI and an
undergraduate degree in Economics from the University Frankfurt (Main).

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