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Reinvestment rate =g/ROC i.e the firm grows at g%. i.e. growth rate of EBIT is g% per
year.
Firms that have very high leverage or are in the process of changing their
leverage
are best valued using the FCFF approach. The calculation of FCFE is much more
difficult
in these cases because of the volatility induced by debt payments (or new issues) and
the
value of equity, which is a small slice of the total value of the firm, is more sensitive to
assumptions about growth and risk. It is worth noting, though, that in theory, the two
approaches should yield the same value for the equity. Getting them to agree in practice
is
an entirely different challenge and we will return to examine it later in this chapter.
There are three problems that we see with the free cash flow to the firm model.
The first is that the free cash flows to equity are a much more intuitive measure of cash
flows than cash flows to the firm. When asked to estimate cash flows, most of us look at
cash flows after debt payments (free cash flows to equity), because we tend to think like
business owners and consider interest payments and the repayment of debt as cash
outflows. Furthermore, the free cash flow to equity is a real cash flow that can be traced
and analyzed in a firm. The free cash flow to the firm is the answer to a hypothetical
question: What would this firm’s cash flow be, if it had no debt (and associated
payments)?
The second is that its focus on pre-debt cash flows can sometimes blind us to real
problems with survival. To illustrate, assume that a firm has free cash flows to the firm
of
$100 million but because of its large debt load makes the free cash flows to equity equal
to -$50 million. This firm will have to raise $50 million in new equity to survive and, if it
cannot, all cash flows beyond this point are put in jeopardy. Using free cash flows to
equity would have alerted you to this problem, but free cash flows to the firm are
unlikely to reflect this.
The final problem is that the use of a debt ratio in the cost of capital to
incorporate the effect of leverage requires us to make implicit assumptions that might
not
be feasible or reasonable. For instance, assuming that the market value debt ratio is
30%
will require a growing firm to issue large amounts of debt in future years to reach that
ratio. In the process, the book debt ratio might reach stratospheric proportions and
trigger
covenants or other negative consequences. In fact, we count the expected tax benefits
from future debt issues implicitly into the value of equity today.
1.Example
IBM’s stock price is $97.14. Last year, IBM earned $4.6 / share and paid dividends of
$0.55. What fraction of IBM’s value comes from growth opportunities if r = 10%? How
Growth
Price = Div / (r – g) → g = r – Div / Price
Growth = 0.10 – 0.55 / 97.14 = 9.4%