October 10,, 2016

Weekly Call

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
Nitin Kunte, CMT
Dipesh Dagha
Pabitro Mukherjee
Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Weekly
Calls At Your Service
Deal Team

Dwarikesh Sugar (DWASUG)

Code

DWASUG

CMP

| 277.80

Comment

Shows 7-week
Sh
7
k long
l
b
base
holding previous resistance
marked.

Action

Buy in the range of 266-270

Reco. Date 10th Oct2016

Stop-loss

| 252

Targets

| 305 / higher

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Weekly
Calls At Your Service
Deal Team

GMDC (GUJMI)
Code

GUJMI

CMP

| 96.95

Comment

Strong bounce from the

Green support line.

Action

Buy in the range of 93-95

Reco. Date 10th Oct

Oct2016
2016
Stop-loss

| 89

Targets

| 108 / higher

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Trend Scanner

Deal Team At Your Service

Positive Trends

Candlestick Pattern

Scrip Name

Close

50 days EMA

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Birla Corporation

739.4

646.0

584.0

67.42

Scrip Name

Pattern name

EID Parry

269.8

250.0

242.0

50.00

Amaraja Batteries

Continuation

GAIL

414.1

385.0

380.0

53.56

Arvind

Continuation

351.5

CCL Products

Continuation

243.4

GPPL

187.5

177.0

173.0

57.50

Bharat Forge

Continuation

956.5

Century Ply

Shooting Star

250.5

Negative Trends
Scrip Name

Close

50 days EMA

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Indo Count

706.8

807.0

855.0

50.20

Bullish Candlestick Formations

Bearish Candlestick Formations

LTP
1047.8

Scrip Name

Pattern name

Biocon

Harami

LTP
944.3

City Union Bank

Continuation

137 6
137.6

Infosys

Continuation

1012 6
1012.6

Dredging Corp

Engulfing

413.2

Maruti Suzuki

Shooting Star

5683.8

TCS

Engulfing

2367.8

GAIL

Engulfing

414.0

Gujarat Pipavav

Morning Star

187.5

Hind Unilever

Harami Cross

877.3

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Market Activity
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Gl b l Markets
Global
M k ts
US

18,308.2
0.3%

UK

6,899.3
-0.1%

Brazil

58,367.1
-0.6%

France

4,448.3
-0.9%

China

3,005.5
-0.9%

Germany

10,511.0
-1.1%

Hong Kong

23,297.2
-1.6%

Japan

16,449.8
-1.8%

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

51.41
2.9%
6.90
0 bps
0.02
14 bps

Copper (tonne)
Silver (ounce)

US 10 Year
Y
JPY 10 Year

6.6
0.7
3.1
-9.0
16.1
17.4
2.1
-0.2
7.0
13.6
10.3

0 7%
0.7%

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

4,758.25
-1.9%

14.50

17.6

10.5

-8.7%

8.6

8.3

7.5

-0.50

1.72
11.9 bps

-2.1

-2.3

-2.3

--2.6

TCS

-4.7%

0.98

2.2
1.0
0.6
-0.6
4.0
4.1
2.9
4.0
-0.9
2.8
3.5

INFY

1,258.02

Swiss Franc

1.9
0.9
0.4
-1.4
5.1
6.2
1.4
4.0
1.8
2.9
3.5

M&M

EURO 10 Year

1 6%
1.6%

1.24
-3.9%

12792.31
8537.01
16240.25
10082.39
10258.4
12081.22
2018.25
1573.4
11907.81
13542.62
13222.40

BANKBARODA

I di 10 year
India

102.97

British Pound

1.0%

Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap

-15.50

-0.06
1 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

TATAMTRDVR

Brent Crude/barrel

-0.4%

96.52

3M
3.5
4.5
15.4
7.3
-33.66

BPCL

Gold/ounce

1.12

Dollar Index

1M
0.9
1.1
2.1
0.5
20
2.0

TATASTEEL

Japanese Yen

-0.1%

1Wk
0.7
1.0
2.8
0.5
18
1.8

GAIL

Euro

66.69

Current
28061.14
8697.60
22849.09
22152.52
14839 83
14839.83

% Change

Rupee (|)

INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods

Market Activity
Deal Team At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
30000

DII

FII

Sensex

30000

-15000

-4491084

104433 1521

9071

-863713

3
25444980

-2738416

21143

67003

25000

-16892

-5000
-10000

-8195 -5521

-11126

5000

-2817 42344

-6475511307

10000

-7074 41977

15000

12612 248

20000

698

25000

20000

15000

10000
Sep'16

Oct'16

Aug'16

July'16

June'16

May'16

Apr'16

Mar'16

Feb'16

Jan'16

Dec'15

Nov'15

Oct'15

-20000

27866

29000
27500
26000
24500
23000
21500
20000
18500
17000

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance %

28152

28077

27782

28797

Sensex

28599

28668

27866

60%

51%
49%

53%
47%

54%
46%

50%
50%

54%
46%

51%
49%

60%
40%

20%

56%
44%

40%

47%
53%

Perccentage

80%

Decline %

28532

12-Aug-16

19-Aug-16

26-Aug-16

2-Sep-16

9-Sep-16

16-Sep-16

23-Sep-16

30-Sep-16

7-Oct-16

0%

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Previous Weeks Performance

Deal Team At Your Service

Date
03 Oct 16
03-Oct-16
03-Oct-16

Scrip
Nav Bharat ferro
Venus Remedies

Product
Cash
Cash

Strategy
Buy
Buy

RP
127 130
127-130
109-112

Target
148 00
148.00
127.00

SL
118 00
118.00
101.00

Gain/Loss %
00
0.0
0.0

Comment
No trade
No trade

F&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (October 10 14, 2016)
COMPANY
SENSEX
BANK NIFTY FUTURE
NIFTY FUTURE
BANK NIFTY
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI PORT
AMBUJA CEMENT
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
AXIS BANK
BAJAJ AUTO
BOB
BPCL
BHARTI AIRTEL
BHEL
BHARTI INFRATEL
BOSCH
CIPLA

CMP
28061.14
19487.45
8722 75
8722.75
19400.10
8697.60
1625.40
266.85
252.80
1184.60
855.80
533.85
2883.50
163.85
663 55
663.55
319.45
135.20
370.90
23135.55
570.05

S1
27967.60
19419.05
8685 45
8685.45
19331.20
8662.40
1614.60
266.10
250.65
1173.30
828.55
520.80
2872.65
159.90
658 80
658.80
316.60
134.50
364.00
22917.75
556.40

S2
27828.15
19294.50
8640 10
8640.10
19206.55
8619.40
1602.60
263.45
247.70
1158.65
803.90
511.70
2839.65
157.05
641 65
641.65
313.60
133.15
357.00
22704.15
543.25

S3
27576.80
19067.00
8565 80
8565.80
18987.80
8544.35
1588.55
260.80
244.35
1145.65
779.30
502.55
2806.65
154.25
624 50
624.50
308.45
128.85
351.75
22421.55
530.05

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

R1
28246.45
19668.10
8776 20
8776.20
19580.45
8748.40
1638.60
271.45
256.50
1202.60
858.80
535.45
2938.65
165.20
693 10
693.10
322.70
137.25
377.90
23344.90
575.10

R2
28385.90
19792.65
8821 60
8821.60
19705.05
8791.35
1650.60
278.55
259.45
1217.25
873.90
542.80
2972.95
167.85
702 00
702.00
325.75
138.65
384.85
23558.45
584.45

R3
28637.25
20020.15
8895 90
8895.90
19923.85
8866.40
1664.70
285.70
262.80
1230.30
889.05
550.10
3007.25
170.50
710 95
710.95
330.90
142.90
390.15
23841.10
593.75

Trend
Neutral
Neutral
N t l
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
-ve
-ve
+ve
-ve
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
-ve

F&O Stocks Pivot points for the Week (October 10 14, 2016)
COMPANY
COAL INDIA
DR.REDDY'S LAB.
EICHER MOTORS
GAIL
GRASIM
HCL TECH
HDFC
HERO MOTO
HINDALCO
HIND. UNILEVER
IDEA CELLULAR
INDUSIND BANK
INFOSYS
ITC
KOTAK MAH.BANK
L&T
LUPIN
M&M
MARUTI SUZUKI
NTPC
ONGC
POWER GRID
RELIANCE
SBI
SUN PHARMA
TATA MOTOR DVR
TATA MOTORS
TATA POWER
TCS
TECH MAHINDRA
TATA STEEL
ULTRATECH CEMENT
WIPRO
YES BANK
ZEE

CMP
318.80
3054.30
25810.45
414.05
1024.95
806.55
1403.70
3474.20
158.00
877.25
80.00
1220.85
1012.55
238.95
782.65
1456.95
1500.15
1374.00
5683.80
148.30
267.35
176.95
1109.00
258.70
751.20
366.15
565.70
80.70
2367.80
419.75
406.55
3933.90
476.95
1273.80
572.20

S1
313.30
3004.55
25474.70
407.90
1017.40
805.80
1393.50
3448.25
157.70
876.25
79.35
1219.55
997.95
235.00
778.35
1446.00
1497.95
1341.40
5655.20
147.60
266.15
175.85
1106.40
255.65
748.40
362.50
561.50
79.90
2331.45
417.60
401.70
3891.20
475.20
1270.70
571.25

S2
308.20
2962.20
25134.30
395.85
1001.80
796.30
1380.70
3408.75
155.35
868.55
78.45
1208.05
991.50
231.75
773.00
1434.90
1490.70
1324.95
5621.40
146.05
260.45
173.90
1093.90
252.60
742.35
356.45
554.45
78.45
2316.10
413.65
393.85
3843.40
472.50
1254.20
560.95

S3
303.15
2919.85
24507.95
383.80
986.25
786.80
1367.90
3366.90
153.00
860.80
77.15
1196.50
985.00
228.50
764.65
1409.30
1483.45
1308.45
5522.15
143.65
254.75
171.25
1081.40
248.95
727.75
350.40
547.35
77.05
2300.70
404.65
386.05
3802.35
468.75
1237.70
550.65

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

R1
319.95
3074.55
26155.45
432.05
1048.50
824.75
1419.20
3527.30
162.35
891.70
81.15
1242.60
1018.60
239.25
789.10
1468.20
1512.45
1386.05
5722.80
150.65
277.60
179.75
1131.40
261.80
760.50
374.65
575.65
82.75
2381.20
425.50
417.35
3986.80
480.50
1303.70
591.80

R2
323.30
3109.55
26495.80
439.35
1063.15
830.60
1432.05
3566.85
165.20
903.95
82.05
1255.20
1028.95
241.40
794.45
1479.25
1531.65
1408.35
5756.60
152.20
281.40
181.70
1147.25
264.85
766.55
380.95
585.80
83.95
2406.05
429.45
423.00
4034.55
483.15
1327.05
601.10

R3
326.65
3144.55
27122.20
446.65
1077.80
836.40
1444.80
3608.70
168.05
916.15
83.35
1267.80
1039.25
243.55
802.80
1504.90
1550.85
1430.65
5855.80
154.60
285.15
184.35
1163.05
268.50
781.10
387.25
595.95
85.20
2430.90
438.40
428.65
4075.65
486.90
1350.40
610.40

Trend
-ve
-ve
Neutral
+ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve
Neutral
+ve
-ve
-ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
-ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
Neutral
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve
+ve
-ve
Neutral
+ve
Neutral
Neutral
+ve
+ve

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Deal Team At Your Service

Date

Event

India
10-Oct
13-Oct

Industrial Production
CPI YoY, Imports and Exports Data and Wholesale Price YoY
Quarterly Result: Indusind Bank (12 Oct), TCS (13 Oct) and Infosys Ltd (14 Oct)

Japan
11-Oct

BOP Current Account Balance, Trade Balance, Eco Watcher Survey

12-Oct

Machine Orders MoM and YoY, Machine Tools Orders

13-Oct

Tertiary Industry Index MoM

14-Oct
US
8 Oct
8-Oct
11-Oct
12-Oct
13-Oct
14-Oct
14-Oct
Euro Zone
11-Oct
12-Oct
13-Oct
UK
13-Oct
14-Oct

Japan Bond Buying Data, Money Supply M2 and M3, PPI MoM and YoY
Consumer Credit
NFIB Small Business Optimism, Monthly Budget Statement
MBA Mortgage Applications
Import Price Index MoM and YoY, Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims
Retail Sales Advances, Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, PPI Final Demand
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade, Business
ZEW Survey Expectations
Industrial Production
Trade Balance and EU27 New Car Registration
RICS House Price Balance,
Construction Output SA MoM and YoY

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Notes

Deal Team At Your Service

Please
Pl
execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d in
i the
h report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stop loss on remaining position to the
entry point
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl to
t allocate
ll
t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti
For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

10

Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Product

Allocations
Product wise Max allocation in
allocation
1 Stock

Return Objective
Number of Calls

Frontline Stocks Mid Cap Stocks

Duration

Daily Calls

8%

2-3%

3-4 Stocks

0.5-1%

2-3%

Intraday

Stocks on the Move

6%

3-5%

7-10 Per Months

7-10%

10-15%

3 Months

Weekly Calls

8%

3-5%

1-2 Stocks

5-7%

7-10%

1 Week

Weekly Technicals

8%

3-5%

1-2 Stocks

5-7%

7-10%

1 Week

Monthly Call

15%

5%

2-3 Stocks

7-10%

10-15%

1 Month

Monthly Technical

15%

2-4%

5-8 Stocks

7-10%

10-15%

1 Month

Techno Funda

15%

5-10%

1-2 Stocks

10% and above 15% and above

6 Months

Gladiator Stocks

15%

5 10%
5-10%

1 2 Stocks
1-2

15% and above 20% and above

6 Months

Cash

10%
100%

11

Candlesticks Glossary:

Deal Team At Your Service

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
sessionss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real bodywarns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over
the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

12

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
p
Dagha,
g , Pabitro Mukherjee,
j , Vinayak
y Parmar Research Analysts,
y , authors and the names subscribed to
We //I,, Dharmesh Shah,, Nitin Kunte,, Dipesh
this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or
securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or
view(s) in this report.
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(ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of
fi
financial
i l products.
d t ICICI S
Securities
iti iis a wholly-owned
h ll
d subsidiary
b idi
off ICICI Bank
B k which
hi h is
i Indias
I di largest
l
t private
i t sector
t bank
b k and
dh
has it
its various
i
subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management,
etc. (associates), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.
ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India.
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necessarily
il a guide
id to
t future
f t
performance.
f
Investors
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t
are advised
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t see Risk
Ri k Disclosure
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Document
D
t to
t understand
d t d the
th risks
i k associated
i t d before
b f
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