Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Electrical Engineering
(IREE)
PART
Contents
3435
3443
Artificial Intelligence Forecast of PV Plant Production for Integration in Smart Energy Systems
by Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
3454
3461
Linear Programming for Optimal Sizing of DGs in MicroGrid Considering Loss of Power Supply
Probability Technology
by H. A. Zamani, S. M. Ezzati, M. D. Farashah, E. Dahri, S. M. M. Tafreshi
3470
3478
3486
3495
3505
3512
Precise Modeling and Detection of High Impedance Faults in Microgrid System Based on
Residual Current Harmonic Analysis
by L. Eslami, R. Keivanian
3523
Single Phase Fault Distance Estimation in Medium Voltage Distribution Network Based on
Traveling Waves
by eila Gruhonji Ferhatbegovi, Ante Marui, Ivica Pavi
3532
Blended Crossover Continuous Ant Colony Optimization and Stability Index Tracing for
Effective FACTS Devices Installation
by Z. Hamid, I. Musirin, M. N. A. Rahim
3542
Using Clonal Selection Algorithm for Optimal Placement and Sizing of Unified Power Flow
Controllers in Deregulated Power Systems
by A. A. Ramezani, Y. Ramezani, A. A. Ramezani, M. Ramezani
3554
(continued)
3562
Adaptive Least Squares Support Vector Machines Method for Short-Term Load Forecasting
Based on Mutual Information for Inputs Selection
by Milo B. Stojanovi, Milo M. Boi, Milena M. Stankovi, Zoran P. Staji
3574
A Fault Direction Discrimination Scheme Based on Transients Generated by Faults in MultiBranch Power Systems
by S. Milad Tayebi, Ahad Kazemi, Roshanak Rezaeipour
3586
A Honey Bee Foraging Approach to Optimal Capacitor Placement with Harmonic Distortion
Consideration
by M. Sedighizadeh, F. Kalimdast
3592
Investigation of the Methods for Single Area and Multi Area Optimization of a Power System
Dispatch Problem
by Senthil Krishnamurthy, Raynitchka Tzoneva
3600
3628
3638
3646
3657
3667
I.
Introduction
3454
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
II.
1000
800
600
400
200
Forecasting PV production
Power [kW]
Irrad [W/m2]
1200
10
20
30
40
Time (h)
50
60
70
3455
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
noon forecast
morning forecast
in1
UV index
weights1
irradiance
cloud index
in2
weights2
in3
in4
Time
weights3
in5
in6
in7
out
in8
out
1
2
in9
in10
out
evening forecast
in11
in12
in13
bias 3
in14
in15
bias 2
in16
bias 1
Fig. 2. Detailed structure of the implemented feed-forward ANN with Fuzzy pre-processing
3456
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
IV.
Numerical Results
Variable name
Range
i1
i2, i7, i12
i3, i8, i13
i4, i9, i14
i5, i10, i15
i6, i11, i16
Day
Irradiance
Air temperature
Wind speed
Air humidity
Air pressure
(1366)
(01350) W/m2
(030) C
(020) km/h
(0100) %
(10001040) mbar
3457
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
200
150
Actual production
Forecast
Current error (%)
Previous error (%)
100
50
100
120
140
160
180
Days
200
220
240
260
Fig. 3. Results of the forecasting over a six-months time frame and comparison with actual measured data.
Current %error level (in red) is compared with the previously obtained one, reported in [17]
Daily cloud coverage index
60
50
# days
40
30
20
10
0
4
5
Index value
V.
Ei ( t )
(1)
i =1
3458
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
References
[1]
[2]
[3]
[4]
[5]
[6]
[7]
VI.
Conclusion
[8]
[9]
[10]
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[15]
[16]
[17]
Acknowledgements
This work was partially supported by Regione
Lombardia, ICT-Metadristretti Action, under grant
ID5109 - DGR N.6735.
[18]
[19]
3459
Mikhail Simonov, Marco Mussetta, Francesco Grimaccia, Sonia Leva, Riccardo E. Zich
Authors information
1
Politecnico di Milano,
Dipartimento di Energia,
Via La Masa 34,
20156 Milano,
Italy.
2
3460