2016 Early Voter Methodology

The 2016 early voter analysis focused on seven battleground states with sufficient early vote
data for inclusion: Iowa, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina.
Many states provide alternative methods of voting other than visiting ones polling place on
Election Day; these methods include, but are not limited to, mail-in absentee voting, no excuse
absentee voting, in-person no excuse absentee voting and/or early in-person voting. Some
states utilize a variety of these methods while others are more restrictive.
For the purposes of this analysis, early voting refers to any type of voting that occurs before
Election Dayabsentee, mail or in-person early voting. To obtain updated records of early
voters on a timely basis, TargetSmart rapidly updates their data files as soon as Secretaries of
State and State Election Boards make this data available. This information is then used by the
NBC News Data Analytics Lab for independent analysis.
For analysis of historical 2012 data, TargetSmart provided the NBC News Data Analytics Lab
with historic voting snapshots in order to examine the 2012 electorate as well the vote
histories of 2016 voters and other registered persons.
The partisan breakdown of early voters relied on two different sources. In Florida, Iowa and
North Carolina, registration applications ask voters to affiliate with a particular political party
when they sign up to register. In some states like Georgia, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin,
partisan information is either not collected as part of ones registration or is unavailable. In
these states, a model-based estimate of a voters party affiliation was created independently by
TargetSmart and utilized in the analysis instead.
Overall, the partisan analysis grouped early voters into three categories: Democrat, Republican
and Other. Democrats and Republicans refer to early voters who are explicitly affiliated as
Democrats or Republicans on their registration records.
In Florida, Other includes any voter listed as Green, Independent, Libertarian, No Party or
Other. In Iowa, those who were listed as Unaffiliated or Other were combined into Other. In
North Carolina, this category combines Libertarian and Unaffiliated voters.
In Georgia, Michigan, Virginia and Wisconsin, where TargetSmarts modeled partisan scores
were used, voters were placed into three categories: Republican, Democrat and Other.
Secretaries of State and State Board of Elections update and make available early voting
records in varying frequencies. In every state included in this analysis, the data is current as of
October 11, 2016.

What is a voter file?

The Data Analytics Lab at NBC News utilizes voter file information provided by TargetSmarta
leading provider of political data and analytic services for a number of organizations and
campaigns. TargetSmart builds and maintains a high-quality database of voter registration files
from all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, acquired from state and county sources.
Aggregated together, the national file includes more than 190 million registered voters. This
data allows experts at the Data Analytics Lab to conduct independent, non-partisan analysis on
voting behavior and turnout historically.
Voter files differ state to state, both in terms of their formats as well as the data fields they
contain. In general, voter files contain basic demographic information about registered persons
in each state such as their gender and age. Vote history information is also provided but does
not contain any details about who an individual voted for.
Though TargetSmart expertly aggregates and updates their national file for easier, faster
analysis, the timeliness and comprehensiveness of the data provided varies by state. For
example, while some states such as Florida provide updated lists of their voter registration
records almost daily during the final months of presidential election years, other states provide
far fewer updates.
In some states such as North Carolina, Florida and Georgia, racially-identifying information is
collected and disseminated as part of ones voter registration record. In most states, however,
this information is unavailable.
Voter file data is considered especially valuable because it is an actual record of every person
who turned out in an election. While survey research has traditionally been a source of valuable
voter and electorate information, it is most useful for understanding the opinions, attitudes and
motivations of voters. Voter registration data is a more comprehensive and precise source of
information regarding voter turnout as well as the demographic composition of the electorate.
Analysts at the NBC News Data Analytics Lab will utilize TargetSmart data throughout the 2016
election cycle.