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# Chapter 1 Week 1 & 2

Probability
Dr.S.Rajalingam
Lecture 5:
Multiplicative Law
Total Probability Theorem
Bayes Theorem
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May 15

Learning Objectives

events.

## Apply a total probability rule to find the probability of an

event when the event is partitioned into several mutually
exclusive and exhaustive subsets.

## Apply Bayes theorem to find the conditional probability

of an event when the event is partitioned into several
mutually exclusive and exhaustive subsets.

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## Multiplicative Law of Probability and

Independence
For two events A and B

P( A B) P( A | B). P( B)
Definition: Events A and B are independent if and only if

P( A B) P( A). P( B)
If events A1, .., Ak are independent then,

P( A1 A2 ... Ak ) P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( Ak )
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## Multiplication rule is most useful when the

experiment consists of several stages in succession.
The conditioning event, B, describes the
outcome of the first stage and A is the outcome
of the second, so that P( A| B) conditioning on
what occurs first will often be known.

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EXAMPLE 1.

## Computer keyboard failures are due to faulty electrical

connects (12%) or mechanical defects (88%). Mechanical
defects are related to loose keys (27%) or improper
assembly (73%). Electrical connect defects are caused by
defective wires (35%), improper connections (13%) or
poorly welded wires (52%).
Find the probability
a) That a failure is due to loose keys.
b) That a failure is due to improperly connected or poorly
welded wires.

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Solution

May 15

## Find the probability

that a failure is due to loose keys.
(0.88)(0.27) = 0.237

May 15

## Find the probability

That a failure is due to improperly connected or poorly
welded wires.
(0.12)(0.13)+(0.12)(0.52) = 0.0078

May 15

EXAMPLE 2.

## During a space shot, the primary computer system

is backed up by two secondary systems. They
operate of one another, and each is independently
90% reliable. What is the probability that all three
systems will be operable at the time of the launch?

P( A B) P( A). P( B)
P( A1 A2 ... Ak ) P( A1 ) P( A2 ) P( Ak )
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May 15

Example 2

## During a space shot, the primary computer system is

backed up by two secondary systems. They operate
independently of one another, and each is 90% reliable.
What is the probability that all three systems will be
operable at the time of the launch?

Solution

## A1: event main system is operable

A2: event first backup is operable
A3: event second backup is operable
Given P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) = 0.9
Since they operate independently
P(A1 A2 A3) = P(A1)P(A2) P(A3) = 0.729

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## Suppose B1, B2 ,, Bn are mutually exclusive and

exhaustive in S, then for any event A
n

i 1

i 1

P( A) P( A Bi ) P( A | Bi ) P( Bi )

A
A B1
B1

A B2 B1

B2

A B3

B3

A B4

B4
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May 15

## The Law of Total Probability

What is the probability A ??

May 15

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May 15

## Suppose B1, B2 ,, Bn are mutually exclusive and

exhaustive in S, then for any event A
n

i 1

i 1

P( A) P( A Bi ) P( A | Bi ) P( Bi )

A
A B1
B1
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A B2 B1

B2

A B3

B3

A B4

B4
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Bayes Theorem
Suppose B1, B2,, Bn are mutually
exclusive and exhaustive (whose union is
S). Let A be an event such that P(A) > 0.
Then for any event Bj , j =1, 2, , n,
It is useful when we have to reverse the
condition in a problem

P ( Bk | A )

P ( A Bk )

P ( A)

P ( A | Bk ) P ( Bk )
n

P( A | B )P(B )
i 1

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EXAMPLE 16.

## A particular city has three airports. Airport A handles

50% of all airline traffic, while airports B and C handle
30% and 20%, respectively. The rates of losing a
baggage in airport A, B and C are 0.3, 0.15 and 0.14
respectively. If a passenger arrives in the city and losses
a baggage, what is the probability that the passenger
arrives at airport A?

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Tree Diagram

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## Question. If a passenger arrives in the city and losses a

baggage, what is the probability that the passenger arrives at
airport A?

Solution

P ( A | L)

P( A) P( L | A)
P( A) P( L | A) P( B) P( L | B) P(C ) P( L | C )

(0.5)(0.3)
(0.5)(0.3) (0.3)(0.15) (0.2)(0.14)

0.673
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EXAMPLE 17.

## A company rated 75% of its employees as

satisfactory and 25% unsatisfactory. Of the
satisfactory ones 80% had experience, of the
unsatisfactory only 40%. If a person with
experience is hired, what is the probability that
(s)he will be satisfactory?
Let Ex = experience, Ex = no experience,
S = Satisfactory, S = unsatisfactory
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Tree Diagram

## A company rated 75% of its employees as satisfactory and 25%

unsatisfactory. Of the satisfactory ones 80% had experience, of the
unsatisfactory only 40%. If a person with experience is hired, what is
the probability that (s)he will be satisfactory?

Solution

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= 0.857

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Example 18:
In a certain assembly plant, three machines, B1, B2, B3, are produced
30%, 45% and 25%, respectively, of the products. It is known from past
experience that 2%,3% and 2% of the products made by each machine,
respectively, are defective. Now,
(i)
suppose that a finished product is randomly selected. What is the
probability that it is defective?
(ii)
If a product was chosen randomly and found to be defective, what is
the probability that it was made by machine B3?

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May 15

Question 1
(i) What is the probability that it is defective?
Solution:

## P(D) P(B1 ) P(D | B1 ) P(B2 ) P(D | B2 ) P(B3 ) P(D | B3 )

(0.3)(0.02) (0.45)(0.03) (0.25)(0.02)
0.006 0.0135 0.005 0.0245
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## Question (ii) If a product was chosen randomly and found to be

defective, what is the probability that it was made by machine B3?
Solution:

P(B3 | D) [ P( B3 ) P( D | B3 )] / P( D)
[(0.25)(0.02)] / 0.0245
0.005 / 0.0245
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QUIZ 1
From a total of 50 groups of ETP, 15 groups are not qualified
for the EDX2011. Among the remaining 35 groups, each group has
either potential to win a gold price or a special award. Let say that 15
groups have a chance to win a gold price and 25 groups have a chance
to win a special award. Let A be the event of wining a gold price and B
be the event of wining the special award. If one group is selected
randomly, what is the probability that the group has wining
(i)
(ii)
(iii)

## both, the gold and the special award?

the gold price only?
at least one of the price?

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