Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

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Fisheries Research
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/fishres

An analysis of the impacts of long-term climate variability on the commercial

barramundi (Lates calcarifer) shery of north-east Queensland, Australia
Jacqueline Balston a,b,
a
b

Queensland Climate Change Centre of Excellence, P.O. Box 937, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia
James Cook University, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 6811, Cairns, QLD 4870, Australia

a r t i c l e

i n f o

Article history:
Received 20 February 2009
Received in revised form 1 May 2009
Accepted 4 May 2009
Keywords:
Decadal
Fisheries
Barramundi
Management
Sustainable

a b s t r a c t
Signicant relationships between long-term climate indices such as the Interdecadal Pacic Oscillation
and sheries catch have been shown for a number of oceanic species such as herring, cod, sardine and
anchovy that are dependant on oceanic upwelling for food chain nutrients. However, there are no similar
studies between long-term climate cycles and estuarine species. In this study, barramundi (Lates calcarifer)
landings as recorded by the Fish Board across north-east Queensland were found to be signicantly
correlated with an index of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation at lags of three to four years and the latitude
of the sub-tropical ridge one to four years prior to catch. These results indicate that long-term climate
cycles may affect the early life cycle stages of the species by inuencing climate variables such as rainfall,
stream ow and temperature and hence nutrient availability and nursery habitat suitability. Signicant
relationships between long-term climate cycles and barramundi catch may provide an opportunity to
predict catch a number of years in advance.
2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

1. Introduction
Analyses of long-term (intra- and inter-decadal) climate variations and the concurrent uctuations in sheries populations as
measured by catch, can identify causal links and so provide an
opportunity to forecast catch a number of years in advance. Decadal
climate oscillations in the Pacic Ocean such as the Interdecadal
Pacic Oscillation (IPO) and Pacic Interdecadal Oscillation (PDO),
have been shown to have large-scale impacts on some of the pelagic
sheries of the world including the Norwegian and Icelandic herring, Norwegian cod and Peruvian anchovy (e.g. Klyashtorin, 1998).
In fact, it is now proposed that the whole ecosystem balance of the
Pacic Basin oscillates between an anchovy regime and a sardine regime every 50 years or so in response to these multi-decadal
climate cycles, a phenomena that appears to have occurred for hundreds of years (Chavez et al., 2003; Sandweiss et al., 2004). Although
a number of similar relationships have been found for a variety of
pelagic sheries, few studies have linked inshore, and more particularly, catadromous and anadromous sheries with long-term
climate cycles.
One study of variations in the catch of anadromous salmon
(Chinook, Sockeye and Pink salmon) in Oregon, California, Alaska
and Washington found a signicant relationship with the IPO

Present address: P.O. Box 48, Glenside, SA 5065, Australia. Tel.: +61 8 83385815;
mobile: +61 488010466.
E-mail address: jacqueline.balston@jbalston.com.
0165-7836/$ see front matter 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.
doi:10.1016/j.shres.2009.05.001

(Mantua et al., 1997). Changes in coastal sea and continental

air surface temperatures, air pressure, rainfall and stream ow
altered mean salmon catch by 64.4% to +251%. These changes in
catch may not be driven by direct changes in the climate, however, but by more complex interactions. A study of the survival
of juvenile Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in Oregon and
Washington, for example, showed that rather than environmental conditions directly affecting the food supply, reduced survival
was due to higher levels of predation when earlier decreases in primary production in the marine environment followed a reduction
in upwelling (Fisher and Pearcy, 1988).
No studies that examine the link between long-term climate
cycles and catadromous or anadromous species have been undertaken for sheries in the Australasian region. A study of barramundi
catch data in the Fitzroy River area of central Queensland noted
a 1520 year cycle that the authors propose was driven by summer rainfall and ow three to four years earlier (Robins et al.,
2005). However, the spatial extent of this oscillation in catch,
or possible connections with long-term climate cycles, was not
explored. If long-term, large-scale climate patterns were driving these cycles in catch, there may be the capacity to extend
temporally and spatially the forecast of catch depending on the
species.
In Queensland, the catadromous barramundi is a valuable n sh
species found in coastal waters, estuaries, tidal creeks and lagoons,
ponded pastures, supralittoral saltpans, ood plains and rivers in
both clear and turbid water that ranges in temperature from 15 to
39 C (Garrett and Russell, 1982). Populations are absent in areas

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J. Balston / Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

Fig. 1. Conceptual model of north-east Queensland barramundi life cycle and climate inuences (Balston and Williams, 2005).

without permanently owing rivers (Dunstan, 1959; Grey, 1986)

and are isolated by highly saline water (Keenan, 1994; Shaklee et
al., 1993). A protandrous hermaphrodite and pelagic spawner, the
barramundi has a complex life cycle that is detailed elsewhere (e.g.
Balston, 2007; Garrett, 1986) but is summarised here in a conceptual model (Fig. 1) that includes climatic conditions known from
previous research to affect each life cycle stage. Barramundi caught
in the Fitzroy area commercial shery in central Queensland were
found to be at least two years of age before reaching the minimum
legal size, and some were as old as 32 years (Staunton-Smith et al.,
2004). However, for most years sampled, the two to ve year old sh
were the most abundant and accounted for more than 40% of the
catch.
Consistent ndings from research to date suggest that survival
of barramundi eggs and larvae is increased in high salinity environments (Davis, 1985; Garrett et al., 1987; Moore, 1982; Schipp,
1996), dispersal of eggs, larval stages and adults during extreme
ood events is increased (Keenan, 1994; Kingsford and Suthers,
1994), growth rates in years of high freshwater ows is increased
(Davis, 1982; Robins et al., 2006; Sawynok, 1998), and barramundi
landings are increased in response to higher ows in the year of
catch (Dunstan, 1959; Platten, 1996; Robins et al., 2005). In northeast Queensland, warm sea surface temperatures, high rainfall,
increased fresh water ow and low evaporation were all correlated with an increase in catch two to three years later (Balston
and Williams, 2005). Each of these climatic conditions is conducive
to a successful spawning event or extensive and productive nursery
habitat and suggests that young barramundi survival is enhanced
under these conditions. Catchability was signicantly increased
with high fresh water ow and rainfall events in the year of catch.
In addition, a forward stepwise ridge regression model built using
two climate variables predicted half the variance in commercial
barramundi landings two years in advance. This study investigates
the possible relationship between long-term climate systems (the
latitude of the sub-tropical ridge, the Southern Annular Mode, the
Inter-decadal Pacic Oscillation or the Quasi-biennial Oscillation)
and the commercial catch of barramundi along the east coast of
Queensland, Australia to determine if there are any signicant relationships that might be considered in the modelling of species catch
a number of years in advance.

2. Data and methods

2.1. Study region
North-east Queensland as dened in this study spans over eight
degrees of latitude from Port Douglas in the north, to Bundaberg
in the south between the Great Dividing Range and the Coral Sea
(Fig. 2). The study region is diverse in topography, geology, vegetation and land use (Crimp et al., 2003). Rivers are affected by
the strong seasonality of the tropical climate systems that affect
air temperature, salinity, water quality and sediment load. A number of the rivers and streams across the study region have been
impounded for the generation of hydro-electricity, irrigation and
urban needs. Other changes that have impinged on the barramundi
populations in the region include the drainage of wetlands for sugar
cane and urban expansion, clearing of trees and riparian areas
for grazing and agriculture, introduction of barramundi ngerlings
and selective catch of sh by recreational shers, deterioration of
water quality due to agricultural and urban runoff, sediment, fertilizer and chemical inputs or boating activities (DPI, 1995; Heap
et al., 2001). In some cases these modications have been extensive, and have affected fresh water ows, wetlands and estuarine
sheries habitats. Fisheries between Townsville and Cairns in particular have seen a dramatic decline in barramundi catch (Midgley,
1987).
Most of the year the south-east trade winds dominate the region
(Downey, 1983). Air temperatures range from a mean maximum of
32 C in Cairns during the summer months to a mean minimum
of 9 C at Rockhampton over winter (BOM, 1988). Water temperatures inside the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon range from about 23 C in
JulyAugust to 28 C in JanuaryFebruary. Inshore areas generally
exhibit a greater seasonal range than those offshore (Wachenfeld
et al., 1998).
2.2. Fisheries data
Fish Board data is a record of the total weight of sh landed in
each nancial year (1 July30 June) from 1945/46 to 1980/81 for
depots along the Queensland coast (Fig. 3). There is no measure of
effort. Changes that may have impacted on sheries catch over the

J. Balston / Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

85

habitat areas). However, there is no signicant trend in the data to

indicate that these changes have had a net effect on catch over the
study period (R2 = 0.0002).
Despite the limitations in data recording, it can be assumed
that changes occurred with relative consistency throughout the
study region and the records are a fair estimate of total catch
until the late 1970s when an increase in black market sales,
recreational shing and sales both interstate and overseas meant
gures were less reliable. The only exception to this is catch in
the Cairns area which experienced an inux of sh caught in
the Gulf of Carpentaria from 1970/71 to 1980/81. For this reason, landings recorded at the Cairns depot for those years is not
included. For years with good quality data (1953/541980/81),
total nancial year barramundi landings (standardised into kilograms of gilled and gutted whole sh) for all depots in north-east
Queensland (Port Douglas, Cairns, Innisfail, Ingham, Townsville,
Home Hill, Ayr, Paluma, Bowen, Proserpine, Mackay, Yeppoon, Rosslyn Bay, Rockhampton, Gladstone and Bundaberg) were extracted
from a Fish Board Microsoft Access 2000 database developed by Queensland Department of Fisheries staff (Robins et al.,
2005).
2.3. Climate data

Fig. 2. North-east Queensland study region. The centres that have Fish Board data
used in the analysis are shown (adapted from the Queensland Fisheries Service.
CHRIS website, October 2006). The study region includes estuarine and inshore areas
to the east of the dashed line.

years are not recorded and have included amendments to catch regulations, habitat degradation (including the draining of wetlands
for sugar cane and urban expansion), and changes to sher access
(introduction of green zones, marine national parks and sheries

2.3.1. The Interdecadal Pacic Oscillation

The index of the IPO has been shown in a number of studies to
correlate signicantly with decadal rainfall anomalies across Australia, particularly in the south-east of the continent (Folland et
al., 1998; Latif et al., 1997; Power et al., 1999). There is also some
evidence to suggest that the IPO inuences the formation of tropical cyclones in north-east Australia, as more cyclones form in the
region during positive phases of the IPO when vertical wind shear
is reduced (Grant and Walsh, 2001).
This study used the monthly IPO index calculated by Folland et
al. (1998), which is based on the Hadley Centre SST and GISST3 data
sets (18562001). The variable used for analyses was the average
IPO index for the period November 1April 30 to capture any inuence on rainfall or cyclone activity and when barramundi are at
their most vulnerable as they return to estuary areas to spawn and
grow to ngerling stage.

Fig. 3. Total commercial nancial year (July 1June 30) catch of barramundi for north-east Queensland as recorded by the Queensland Fish Board. Data includes catch from the
Townsville, Mackay, Port Curtis, and Burnett areas for the years 1945/461980/81. Catch in the Cairns region for the years 1970/711980/81 is excluded due to an unquantied
inux of sh sold into the area that were caught in the Gulf of Carpentaria over those years.

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J. Balston / Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

2.3.2. The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

the high pressure ridge is further south and Queensland rainfall is
The Quasi-biennial Oscillation is reviewed in detail by Baldwin
increased (Drosdowsky, 2005).
et al. (2001) but can be described in brief as a near-biannual (2728
month) oscillation between predominantly easterly and westerly
2.3.4. The southern hemisphere annular mode (SAM)
directions of the equatorial stratospheric winds (McGregor and
A number of climatic oscillations have been dened in relaNieuwolt, 1998). Gray and Scheaffer (1991) reported that, like the
tion to uctuations in atmospheric and oceanic variables in the
IPO, the QBO has an impact on cyclone development. The frequency
high latitudes of the Southern Ocean. The terms Antarctic Oscilof intense cyclones in the western Pacic (particularly in the Auslation (AO) and Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode refer to the
tralian region), is reduced during easterly phases of the QBO due to
same large scale alternation of atmospheric mass between the
an increase in upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric wind shear.
mid-latitude surface pressure and high latitudes surface pressure
Tropical stratospheric winds have been measured since 1957
(Gong and Wang, 1999; Thompson and Lorenz, 2004) that is now
as part of the global radiosonde network. The QBO data set
thought to be the dominant mode of interannual climate variabilused in this analysis was extracted from the Berlin Stratospheric
ity in the Southern Hemisphere (Visbeck and Hall, 2004). Effects
Data Series produced by combining the observations at three
from the oscillation of the SAM have been shown to extend into
radiosonde stations: Canton Island, Maledive Island and Singapore
the tropics and sub-tropics and include variability in temperature,
(http://dss.ucar.edu/cdroms/karin labitzke strat grids/html/section5.html).
mean sea level pressure and rainfall across the Australian continent
The index is a measure of mean monthly zonal (U-wind) compo(Gong and Wang, 1998; Thompson and Lorenz, 2004; Visbeck and
nents from 1953 to 2002 at the 20 hPa level (the altitude where
Hall, 2004). Positive values of the SAM have also been attributed to
the maximum amplitudes of both easterly and westerly phases
increased summer rainfall across central and eastern parts of the
typically occur) and is considered representative of the equatorial
continent (Sturman and Tapper, 2006).
belt, although uncertainties exist in the early years due to a scarcity
For this study, the most recently calculated index for the
of observations. The variable used in the analyses was an average
SAM was extracted from the Joint Institute for the study of
QBO index for the period November 1 April 30, again like the IPO
the Atmosphere and Ocean website for the years 19482005
index, to capture any effects on cyclone incidence. Negative values
(http://www.jisao.washington.edu/aao/slp/#analyses)
derived
of the QBO represent the easterly phase (zonal winds from the east)
from
the
NCEP
when cyclone development in the western Pacic is reduced, and
NCAR reanalysis data. The index is dened as the leading principal
positive values the westerly phase (zonal winds from the west).
component of 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies south of
Both the IPO and QBO have been shown to affect tropical cyclone
20 S (Thompson and Wallace, 2000) and is standardised to the
activity in north-east Queensland. How an increase or decrease in
19792004 period. It was noted that Marshall (2002) raised concyclone activity might affect the barramundi shery is difcult to
cerns about the quality of the index prior to 1979 due to changes in
predict. Increased ow and rainfall would increase habitat areas
the measurement of air pressure. The variable used in the analyses
for ngerlings and juveniles and ush mature males downstream
was the nancial year average (1 July30 June) as a measure of
into the commercial shery in the year of catch. However, dependeffects on rainfall throughout the year.
ing on the severity and timing of the event, cyclones may also be
Both the SAM and LSTR have been shown to affect rainfall across
destructive and reduce subsequent catch (Balston, 2007).
the continent. As wetter, warmer conditions have been shown to
2.3.3. Latitude of the sub-tropical ridge (LSTR)
The latitude of the sub-tropical ridge, or southern hemisphere
anticyclone (high pressure) belt, affects latitudes from 35 to 60 S
and oscillates latitudinally to an approximate 11-year cycle (Allan,
1991; Harris et al., 1988; Pittock, 1973). When the sub-tropical
ridge tracks further north, conditions across the Australian continent are drier, with weaker southerlies in the winter and stronger
southerlies in the summer months. These winds offset the rain
bearing Southern Ocean and monsoonal moisture sources (as
occurred between 1910 and 1950). The reverse is true when the subtropical ridge tracks further south and creates stronger southerlies
through the winter months, and stronger northerlies in the summer
months, that channel moisture over the continent (1860s1910s
and 1950s1970s) (Allan, 1991).
The L-index is a measure of the latitude of the sub-tropical
ridge and the index used in this study is a monthly anomaly
calculated using the base period 19611990 as per Das (1956)
and Pittock (1973) (Allyson Williams, Climatologist, QDPI&F, pers.
comm. March 2006). The L-index identies the latitude at which
the highest monthly mean sea level pressure is recorded across nine
locations along the Australian eastern seaboard. The stations used in
the analysis were: Cairns, Townsville, Rockhampton, Brisbane, Sydney, Moruya, Gabo Island, Launceston and Hobart. Previous research
(e.g. Pittock, 1971) showed varied relationships between eastern
Australian rainfall and the L-index depending on season. The average JanuaryMarch L anomaly was used in these analyses as a
measure of the variability of rainfall at the time critical to early survival and development of the barramundi. Negative anomalies of
the L-index indicate the LSTR is further north than average and rainfall across Queensland is reduced, while positive anomalies indicate

enhance early life stage survival in the barramundi and increase

subsequent catch (Balston, 2007), the relationship between the
SAM or LSTR and catch was expected to be positive. As none of the
indices considered are noted to affect SSTs in the region, an impact
on spawning and early larval stages was not expected.
2.4. Analyses
Data for each of the indices and sheries catch was collated and
variables tested for normality. Often in the case of climate data there
are issues of collinearity between independent variables (i.e. one
climate variable correlated with another). For this reason a correlation matrix of independent climate variables was generated to
test for cases of collinearity. A scatter plot of each of the selected
long-term climate indices versus annual Fish Board landings was
generated for lags of up to ve years to identify any obvious relationships. A regression analysis was then undertaken between the
barramundi catch and selected climate indices data to test for correlations signicant at the P < 0.10 and P < 0.05 levels.
3. Results
3.1. Tests for collinearity
None of the climate indices used in the analysis were signicantly correlated with any other index (P < 0.05) indicating a lack
of collinearity between them. A correlation matrix of landings by
area returned a number of signicant correlations and indicated
that catch varied similarly across some of the areas from one year
to the next. Total regional catch was signicantly correlated with all

J. Balston / Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

87

Table 1
Pearson correlation coefcient (r) matrix of Fish Board barramundi landings across north-east Queensland for each area and the total study region. Correlations signicant at
the p < 0.05** level and at the p < 0.10* level.
Area landings

Burnett

Cairns

Fitzroy

Mackay

Port Curtis

Townsville

Total

Burnett
Cairns
Fitzroy
Mackay
Port Curtis
Townsville
Total

1.00
0.18
0.15
0.35**
0.16
0.17
0.27

1.00
0.26
0.22
0.09
0.07
0.37*

1.00
0.65**
0.24
0.18
0.78**

1.00
0.34**
0.26
0.67**

1.00
0.12
0.29*

1.00
0.68**

1.00

Table 2
Pearson correlation coefcient (r) between long-term climate indices and Fish Board barramundi landings for north-east Queensland (zerove year lag). Correlations
signicant at the p < 0.05** level and at the p < 0.10* level.
Variable

Year of catch

1 year lag

2 year lag

3 year lag

4 year lag

5 year lag

IPO
QBO
SAM
L-index

0.23
0.08
0.06
0.25

0.17
0.22
0.05
0.45**

0.16
0.32
0.13
0.48**

0.24
0.40*
0.18
0.52**

0.18
0.42**
0.28
0.41**

0.11
0.24
0.16
0.32

areas except the Burnett in the far south which showed the lowest
catch of all the areas (Table 1).
3.2. Regression analysis
The results of the regression analysis between annual total Fish
Board landings and long-term climate indices for lags of up to ve
years (Table 2) showed a signicant negative correlation between
catch and the QBO at a lag of three and four years, and a signicant positive correlation with the L-index at a lag of one through
to four years. Neither the SAM nor the IPO showed any signicant
correlations with Fish Board landing for lags of up to ve years.
4. Discussion
Evidence of a causal link between long-term climate variables
and total barramundi catch across north-east Queensland may provide sheries managers with the opportunity to predict regional
catch a number of years in advance, and so improve the capacity to sustainably harvest the resource. This study considered the
relationship between four long-term climate patterns in the Australia region and the catch of commercial barramundi in north-east
Queensland. The signicant correlation between total catch for
north-east Queensland and catch from each individual area along
the coast (except the Burnett which had the lowest catch of all the
areas) suggests that there are coherent variations in catch across
the study region. This result would suggest that large scale changes
in the region have inuenced the shery.
The relationship between the IPO and total Fish Board catch
was not signicant at any of the lags tested. Previous studies have
shown the IPO to drive synchronous, large-scale variations in northern hemisphere pelagic shery catch (e.g. Klyashtorin, 1998). In
most cases changes in catch have been the result of basin scale
changes in winds, upwelling, primary production and nutrient
levels (see review by Chavez et al., 2003; Ottersen et al., 2001).
Such oceanic changes are stronger in the northern hemisphere
and regions adjacent to the South Pacic Convergence Zone in the
southern hemisphere, and less along the north-east coast of Australia and so may not affect inshore areas (Folland et al., 1998).
In addition, the estuarine barramundi species is not dependant on
nutrient from oceanic upwelling, and instead catch has been linked
to freshwater runoff from terrestrial streams. As the period of Fish
Board data (1945/461980/81) corresponds almost entirely with a
negative phase of the IPO when the relationship with cyclones off
the coast of north-east Queensland is not signicant (as opposed

to the positive phase of the IPO) (Grant and Walsh, 2001), a significant relationship based on ood events and a resultant boost to
estuarine nutrient levels and primary production is not expected.
Correlations between total barramundi catch and the SAM were
positive for all but the year of catch but again not signicant. The
life cycle model suggests that wetter conditions and enhancement
of nursery habitats would be linked to the positive values of the
SAM across the north-east Queensland region. The variable used
in this analysis was the average SAM for the full nancial year as
connections with tropical climatology are as yet unclear (Sturman
and Tapper, 1996) and so may not identify critical effects from the
climate system that occur at shorter time periods.
Each of the signicant correlations between catch and long-term
climate variables occurred at a lag of one or more years, a nding
that suggests that the effect from long-term climate variability is
strongest on early life cycle stages of the sh and less so on catchability. Correlations between catch and the QBO were negative and
signicant at a lag of three and four years when most barramundi
are ngerlings or juveniles in the nursery areas. An increase in the
frequency of intense cyclones in the south-west Pacic Ocean (near
Australia) is seen during westerly phases of the QBO (positive values
of the QBO index) and so a negative correlation with catch three or
four years later would suggest that the effect of cyclones on early
barramundi life cycle stages is destructive. Results from an analysis of the impacts of short-term climate variability and extreme
threshold events on the commercial barramundi shery of Princess
Charlotte Bay in north-east Queensland (Balston, 2007) indicated
that increased wet season rainfall and ow had a likely positive
effect on survival of young-of-year sh and subsequent catch, but
that extreme pre-wet season rainfall and early dry season ow negatively affected survival of sh and reduced subsequent catch, a
result that would concur with the negative correlation identied
in this study. A strong relationship between the JanuaryFebruary
QBO and the LSTR has been noted in some studies (e.g. Salby and
Callaghan, 2000). However, the correlation matrix of all the longterm climate indices used in this analysis did not show a signicant
correlation between the QBO and L-index variables for the years in
this study.
The strongest and most consistent correlations (positive) were
between barramundi catch and the L-index. High values of the Lindex indicate that the high pressure belt is anomalously south, a
pattern that tends to generate increased rainfall along the northeast coast. Correlations were highest at a lag of three years, when
sh are likely to be spawning and in their early life cycle stages
(Balston, 2007). The signicant correlation at one, two and four

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J. Balston / Fisheries Research 99 (2009) 8389

years was possibly because sh mature at different ages (twofour

years) or that wet conditions are favourable for the survival of a
number of life cycle stages. In the Fitzroy River area, long-term variability in barramundi catch was ascribed to changes in freshwater
ow (Robins et al., 2005), a variable also positively correlated with
the L-index and conditions conducive to early and continued life
cycle survival in the species. It could also be that other climate variables including temperature, evaporation and wind are affected by
the position of the high pressure belt and also affect the successful
recruitment of the species to the commercial sheryas shown in
earlier studies (Balston and Williams, 2005).
In summary, those relationships between north-east Queensland commercial barramundi catch and long-term climate variables
shown to be signicant in this study reinforce the results from
previous studies of the life cycle of the species and the impacts
of short-term climate variables on catch in the region. Climatic
conditions that would result in an extensive nursery habitat conducive to young-of-year barramundi survival (high rainfall and a
reduced number of destructive cyclonic events) were signicantly
correlated with barramundi catch across north-east Queensland.
These results suggest it may be possible to use long-term climate indices such as the QBO and L-index to predict barramundi
catch a number of years in advance. It is suggested that the
examination of long-term climate indices and the catch of other
commercial shery species in the Australasian region may provide similar opportunities to forecast catch a number of years in
advance and hence improve the sustainable harvest of the sheries
resource.
5. Conclusion
Analysis of long-term barramundi landings as recorded by the
Fish Board across north-east Queensland identied synchronous
long-term variations in catch for many areas along the coast. In
addition, long-term climate cycles were signicantly correlated
with spatially extensive, long-term catch of barramundi. Correlations between barramundi catch and an index of the Quasi-biennial
Oscillation were signicant at lags of three to four years, and
correlations between barramundi catch and the latitude of the subtropical ridge were signicant one to four years prior to catch. The
results indicate that these climate cycles may inuence the early
life cycle stages of the species by affecting climate variables such
as rainfall, stream ow and temperature and as such the inclusion
of long-term climate indices in sheries catch models may prove
valuable.
Acknowledgements
This study forms part of a doctoral research project funded by the
Queensland Department of Primary Industries, Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Water and the Queensland Centre
for Climate Change Excellence. In-kind support was provided by the
James Cook University School of Earth and Environmental Sciences.
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