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HSL PCG “Currency Insight”-Weekly

23 May, 2016
WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW

Currency MARKET WRAP UP

Currency Prev. %  RUPEE POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP SINCE 15th JANUARY 2016
Last Chg.
(Spot) Close Chg.

DXY Index 95.3340 94.6080 0.7260 0.8% India’s rupee completed its worst weekly drop since January on fear of
EURUSD 1.1224 1.1309 -0.0085 -0.8% US interest rate hike which could accelerate outflows from emerging-
market assets. The Indian rupee on Friday weakened for the seventh
GBPUSD 1.4502 1.4365 0.0137 1.0% consecutive session against the US dollar, on concerns of slowing
USDJPY 110.1500 108.6300 1.5200 1.4% dollar inflows. Fall in local equity markets for the third consecutive
session also dampened investor sentiment. The rupee retreated 1%
USDINR 67.4463 66.7737 0.6726 1.0%
from May 13 to 67.4475, that’s the biggest drop since the period
EURINR 75.6750 75.8200 -0.1450 -0.2% ended Jan. 15.
GBPINR 98.2900 96.3161 1.9739 2.0%
Overseas holdings of local-currency debt fell by 42.8 billion rupees
JPYINR 61.1200 61.3700 -0.2500 -0.4% ($634 million) over the past four days, set for the biggest decline in 12
DGCX USDINR 67.4582 67.1953 0.2629 0.4% weeks, data from National Securities Depository Ltd. show.

India's 10-year bond yield closed at 7.478%-a level last seen on 30


RBI Reference Rate March, as compared with its close of 7.449%.

Prev. %
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg.  India’s forex reserves marginally dipped
USDINR 67.4076 66.7609 0.6467 1.0%
India's foreign exchange reserves dipped marginally by $980 million to
EURINR 75.5437 75.7202 -0.1765 -0.2%
touch $361 billion for the week ended May 13, said the Reserve Bank
GBPINR 98.4555 96.1557 2.2998 2.4% of India in its weekly statistical report. Foreign exchange reserves
JPYINR 61.1700 61.4700 -0.3000 -0.5%
dipped for the second consecutive week after it fell by $1.1bn in the
previous week.

GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield On May 13, the foreign currency assets stood at $337.04 billion, gold
$20.04 billion, special drawing rights $1.50 billion and the reserve position
with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stood at $2.43 billion.
Prev. %
Instrument Last Chg.
Close Chg.

759GS2026 7.4780 7.4490 0.0290 0.4%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Dollar Rally Is Biggest Since January

 Dollar index rises a third week, poised for longest winning streak since January as Fed officials and April FOMC minutes stress
that market may be mispricing rate-hike trajectory. Trading volumes subdued while price action mostly concentrated around
position-squaring flows ahead of G-7 summit in Japan.
 The U.S. currency has rallied since the minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting prompted traders to add to bets on a June
rate hike. The move was also spurred by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterating that he’s ready to add to
stimulus if necessary. Japan used a meeting of finance chiefs from the world’s major industrialized nations to warn of the
economic risks from sharp swings in the yen, even as the U.S. made clear that currency markets remain calm.
 The yield premium offered by two-year U.S. Treasury notes over equivalent Japanese government bonds surged to the
highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Week Ahead

 US Week Ahead: A relatively quiet week for US data should generally show modest improvements. There are (again) plenty
of Fed speakers due, including Yellen on Friday. Also on Friday Q1 GDP is likely to be revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%, but all
the attention is already on the expected pick-up in Q2.
 Fed speakers start with Tarullo, Bullard, Williams and Harker, only the first two voters. Harker is up again on Wednesday, as
are Kashkari and Kaplan, no voters here. Bullard speaks again on Thursday as does another voter in Powell. Yellen is
scheduled 30 minutes after the Michigan CSI on Friday.
 Europe Week Ahead: A busy survey week in the Euro zone starts with flash May PMIs on Monday. Euro zone release of note
is Tuesday's final estimate of German Q1 GDP where the initial reading of 0.7%q/q, 1.6%y/y should be confirmed.
 A quieter week for the UK starts with April PSNB on Tuesday and then it's the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday where
we expect a downward adjustment 0.2% from 0.3% q/q, tapping the y/y lower to 2.0% from 2.1%. April BBA mortgage
approvals are also due.
 Asia Week Ahead: Leaders of the Group of Seven nations gather in western Japan to discuss topics including economic
policy, climate change and boosting infrastructure investment.

WEEKLY PRICE- VOLUME –OI (PVO)


WKLY OPEN WKLY OI WKLY VOL.
CURRENCY PAIR CLOSE VOLUME
% CHG. INTEREST % CHG. % CHG.

NSE INRUSD Future May16 67.5425 0.61 1751339 34% 1713159 68%
NSE EURINR Future May16 75.8200 (0.18) 62271 5% 38165 -11%
NSE GBPINR Future May16 98.3800 1.86 46557 34% 65271 23%
NSE JPYINR Future May16 61.2400 (0.23) 25219 10% 15950 -49%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK USDINR MAY FUTURE
Spot USDINR

Currency Short Term


DAILY CHART
Current Trend Bullish

Trend Reversal 66.68

Support 66.96

Resistance 68.14

20 Days SMA 66.69

200 Days SMA 66.34

USDINR May Fut.CMP : 67.56

 USDINR pair closed at


67.45, highest level since 2nd
March 2016.
 For last two and half months
pair was trading in the range of
66.15 to 67 and now same has
been taken out on the upside.
 200 DMA placed at 66.34 can
act as a positional support.
 Earlier resistance of 67 can act
as a support going forward.
 RSI on the daily chart has
turned extremely overbought.

View: Overall trend of the


USDINR pair is bullish. However
due to overbought
conditions, we advise buying on
Dips at 67.00-67.20 range for
the target of 67.80, keeping
stop loss at 66.70.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK EURINR MAY FUTURE
Spot EURINR

Currency Short Term


DAILY CHART
Current Trend Bullish

Trend Reversal 74.69

Support 74.69

Resistance 76.23

20 Days EMA 75.77

200 Days EMA 73.54

EURINR May Fut. CMP : 75.83

 Higher top and higher bottom is


intact on the daily charts.
 Pair has reached the crucial
support of upward slopping
trend line on the daily chart.
 Short term moving averages
are trading above long term
moving averages.
 RSI is getting closer to oversold
zone.
 Any level below 75.30 in May
Futures would violate crucial
support, while Resistances for
the same are seen at 76.36 and
77.35.

View: Traders should remain


long for the upside target of
76.36 and 77.35, keeping a
stop loss at 75.30 in May
Futures.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK GBPINR MAY FUTURE
Spot GBPINR

Currency Short Term


DAILY CHART
Current Trend Bullish

Trend Reversal 97.30

Support 97.38

Resistance 99.34

20 Days EMA 96.80

200 Days EMA 98.47

GBPINR May Fut.CMP : 98.45

 Pair surged from 95.95 to


98.75 in the span of just 4
sessions.
 200 DMA resistance is placed
around 98.93.
 Level above 99 would confirm
bullish inverse head and
shoulder pattern on the daily
charts. Upside target of this
pattern would be at 101.50.
 Higher Top is formed preceded
by higher bottom.
 Short-term moving averages
are trading above long term
moving averages.

View: Pair has reached short


term resistance of 99. Traders
should either wait for the
correction or should wait for the
breakout above 99. Immediate
support is seen around 97.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


TECHNICAL OUTLOOK JPYINR MAY FUTURE
Spot JPYINR

Currency Short Term


DAILY CHART
Current Trend Bullish

Trend Reversal 60.70

Support 59.95

Resistance 61.80

20 Days EMA 61.35

200 Days EMA 56.99

JPYINR May Fut.CMP : 61.24

 Higher tops and higher bottoms


are intact on the daily chart.
 Pair has corrected from 63.09
odd levels to 61 levels recently.
 RSI on the daily charts is
getting closer to oversold
levels.
 Short-term moving averages
are trading above long term
moving averages.
 Upward sloping trend line
adjoining recent bottoms on the
daily chart projects support at
61. However resistances for the
same are placed at 61.84 and
63.09.

View: Traders should trade the


pair with Bullish bias. Stoploss
in Long positions should be kept
at 60.55

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


DOLLAR INDEX EURUSD
DXY: Daily Chart
EURUSD Daily Chart
Reached Near Strong Resistance
Reached Near Strong Support

GBPUSD USDJPY
GBPUSD: Daily Chart
Bullish Trend Intact USDJPY: Daily Chart
Lower Top and Lower Bottom Intact

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


USDINR MAY MONTH OPTION DISTRIBUTION

CALL PUT
USDINR OPTION OI DISTRIBUTION Strike
Price
350 OI Volume IV LTP LTP IV Volume OI
OI in Thousands

2451 100 14.96 2.56 65.00 0.005 12.41 1 7751


32 - 5.8 1.56 65.25 - 0- -
300
3569 34 8.36 1.95 65.50 0.0025 9.35 109 24416
744 - 5.22 1.125 65.75 0.0025 8.32 3 7415
250 24521 970 10.28 1.565 66.00 0.005 8.02 42671 161841
957 973 6.41 1.2925 66.25 0.005 6.89 1956 16592
200 186880 42301 8.88 1.085 66.50 0.005 5.75 86958 155209
27155 11823 6.55 0.8225 66.75 0.01 5.2 50819 40252

326.0
286.9

150 286934 71439 5.22 0.5775 67.00 0.025 4.86 306706 258000
258.0

69909 47631 4.57 0.3575 67.25 0.0625 4.61 133563 101221


325983 223461 4.92 0.2075 67.50 0.16 4.89 161729 125305
186.9

100

165.2
161.8

155.2

43447 126755 4.93 0.1 67.75 0.34 6 4339 2748


125.3

102554 140895 5.25 0.0475 68.00 0.4875 4.69 5840 29037


102.6

50 9595 14475 5.62 0.0225 68.25 0.84 10.48 2 420


24.4

24.5

29.0

41.8
3.6

1.2

1.8
165167 28688 5.62 0.0075 68.50 1.08 12.08 10 1243
0 214 252 6.36 0.005 68.75 1.295 12.44 - 224
65.50 66.00 66.50 67.00 67.50 68.00 68.50 69.00 41822 7492 7.44 0.005 69.00 1.57 15.26 - 1751
1338962 TOTAL 938021
CALL OI PUT OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.70 vs. 0.50

Data Interpretation:
 Highest PUT OI seen at 67 strike price and same is likely to act as strong support for USDINR May futures.
 Highest CALL OI is placed at 67.50 and same is likely to act as a strong resistance going forward. The chances of May expiry
to remain above 67.50 seems to be low.
 The put call ratio of Open Interest move higher to 0.70 from previous week’s 0.50.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


USDINR NEAR MONTH FUTURE ROLLING CHART(PRICE AND OPEN INTEREST)

Data Interpretation:
 Last week, USDINR May future posted gain of 0.61% to close at 67.56. There were addition of 34% in open interest to 17.15
million. So there was a clear cut Long build up seen in USDINR May futures.
 Rise in USDINR along with open interest and volumes, indicating bullishness in the existing trend.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


INDIA FOREX RESERVE

Indian Foreign Exchange Reserves (US$ Billions)


Weekly
13-May 06-May 29-Apr 15-Apr 8-Apr 1-Apr
Change
Total Reserves (0.96) 361.03 361.99 363.12 361.6 360.25 359.92
Foreign Currency Assets (0.94) 337.05 337.99 339.02 337.54 336.19 335.85
Gold 0.00 20.04 20.04 20.12 20.12 20.12 20.12
Special Drawing Rights 0.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50
Position in IMF (0.12) 2.33 2.45 2.47 2.45 2.45 2.46

FOREIGN FUND FLOW VS USDINR

Foreign Funds Muted

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


MAJOR CURRENCIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
CURRENCY PAIR OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
DOLLAR INDEX SPOT 95.288 95.461 95.174 95.334 0.05 0.77 0.89 (1.31)
Euro Spot 1.120 1.124 1.120 1.122 0.19 (0.75) (0.65) 1.76
British Pound Spot 1.461 1.461 1.449 1.450 (0.75) 0.95 1.19 2.49
Japanese Yen Spot 109.96 110.59 109.85 110.15 (0.17) (1.38) (0.28) 2.51
Indian Rupee Spot 67.420 67.503 67.315 67.446 (0.11) (1.00) (1.82) 1.72
Brazilian Real Spot 3.567 3.567 3.517 3.521 1.23 0.35 0.24 12.06
Australian Dollar Spot 0.723 0.725 0.721 0.722 (0.08) (0.67) (7.34) (0.07)
South Korean Won Spot 1188 1191 1186 1190 0.14 (1.57) (4.61) 3.72
S. African Rand Spot 15.809 15.824 15.616 15.633 1.14 (1.47) (9.08) (2.80)
Canadian Dollar Spot 1.309 1.316 1.308 1.311 (0.14) (1.32) (3.49) 4.52
Swiss Franc Spot 0.991 0.993 0.990 0.990 0.04 (1.49) (1.83) 0.95

MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
GOLD 1254.75 1260.37 1248.91 1251.98 (0.22) (1.69) 0.62 3.59
SILVER 16.49 16.65 16.42 16.53 0.26 (3.40) (2.55) 8.86
CRUDE OIL 48.72 49.29 47.95 48.41 (0.53) 3.22 7.53 36.37

MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
Nifty 50 7792.2 7812.4 7735.8 7749.7 (0.43) (0.83) (1.89) 9.00
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 25428.4 25506.1 25251.9 25301.9 (0.39) (0.74) (2.08) 8.08
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 17437.3 17571.8 17437.3 17500.9 0.38 (0.20) (2.79) 6.51
S&P 500 INDEX 2041.9 2058.4 2041.9 2052.3 0.60 0.28 (1.88) 6.82
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 4729.4 4781.7 4729.0 4769.6 1.21 1.10 (2.79) 5.91
FTSE 100 INDEX 6053.4 6156.5 6053.4 6156.3 1.70 0.29 (2.44) 3.25
CAC 40 INDEX 4323.6 4353.9 4312.5 4353.9 1.67 0.78 (4.72) 2.72
DAX INDEX 9878.5 9921.6 9852.7 9916.0 1.23 0.55 (4.41) 5.30
NIKKEI 225 16595.0 16770.9 16548.3 16736.4 0.54 1.97 (4.76) 4.26
HANG SENG INDEX 19631.7 19954.3 19631.7 19852.2 0.80 0.67 (7.52) 2.25
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 2792.9 2826.0 2785.1 2825.5 0.66 (0.06) (4.52) (2.68)

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


ECONOMIC EVENTS NEXT WEEK

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior


05/23/2016 05:20 JN Trade Balance Apr ¥540.0b ¥754.2b
05/23/2016 07:30 JN Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg May P -- 48.2
05/23/2016 13:30 EC Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May P 51.9 51.7
05/23/2016 19:15 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI May P 51 50.8
05/23/2016 19:30 EC Consumer Confidence May A -9 -9.3
05/24/2016 14:00 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Apr -- 4.2b
05/24/2016 14:30 EC ZEW Survey Expectations May -- 21.5
05/24/2016 19:30 US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index May 10 14
05/24/2016 19:30 US New Home Sales Apr 520k 511k
05/25/2016 16:30 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-May -- -1.60%
05/25/2016 18:30 US House Price Purchase Index QoQ 1Q -- 1.40%
05/25/2016 19:15 US Markit US Services PMI May P 53.2 52.8
05/25/2016 05/31 IN Eight Infrastructure Industries Apr -- 6.40%
05/26/2016 14:00 UK BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr -- 45096
05/26/2016 14:00 UK GDP QoQ 1Q P 0.40% 0.40%
05/26/2016 14:00 UK Exports QoQ 1Q P 0.10% 0.10%
05/26/2016 14:00 UK Imports QoQ 1Q P 1.00% 0.90%
05/26/2016 18:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 21-May -- 278k
05/26/2016 18:00 US Continuing Claims 14-May -- 2152k
05/26/2016 18:00 US Durable Goods Orders Apr P 0.30% 0.80%
05/26/2016 19:30 US Pending Home Sales MoM Apr 0.60% 1.40%
05/26/2016 20:30 US Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity May -4 -4
05/27/2016 05:00 JN Natl CPI YoY Apr -0.40% -0.10%
05/27/2016 18:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 1Q S 0.80% 0.50%
05/27/2016 18:00 US Personal Consumption 1Q S 2.10% 1.90%
05/27/2016 18:00 US GDP Price Index 1Q S 0.70% 0.70%
05/27/2016 18:00 US Core PCE QoQ 1Q S -- 2.10%
05/27/2016 19:30 US U. of Mich. Sentiment May F 95.8 95.8

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses

An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.

For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an
automatic exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the
world markets are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.

Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering
a trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have
created a forex hedge.

With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the
downside risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position
from the upside risk.

The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and
(c) to plan and execute the strategy.

The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an
importer will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the
US dollar. The cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same
time creating a loss for the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to
Indian rupees.

In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


KNOWLEDGE CENTRE

How Hedging Works For An Importer

Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the
delivery date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth,
say, Rs 66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June
2016, the value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.

In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for
the importer would work:

 Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on
11th March 2016.
 Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
 Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar

Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs
66,50,000). However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due
to profits in currency hedge.

How An Exporter Can Use Hedging


A Jeweller, who is exporting gold jewellery worth US$50,000 in March 2016, wants protection against a possible
appreciation in the Indian rupee in June 2016 (spot Rs 66.50), when he receives his payment. When he is required to
make the payment in June 2016, suppose the rupee appreciates to 64. If, in this situation, he wants to lock in the
exchange rate for the above transaction, his strategy would be as follows

In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that
initially the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June
2016.

Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but
by creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]


Technical Research Analyst(Equity and Currency): Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Research Analyst(Currency): Dilip Parmar (dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakadi 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
Phone: (079) 66090040 /66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
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Disclosure:
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report. Accordingly, neither HDFC Securities nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. Compensation of our Research Analysts is not
based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. HDFC Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different
conclusion from the information presented in this report.
Research entity has not been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. Research analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. We
have not received any compensation/benefits from the Subject Company or third party in connection with the Research Report.
This report has been prepared by the PCG Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or other parameters mentioned in this
document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, Retail) of HDFC Securities Ltd.

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