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23 May, 2016
WEEKLY MOVEMENT MARKET OVERVIEW
Currency Prev. % RUPEE POSTS BIGGEST WEEKLY DROP SINCE 15th JANUARY 2016
Last Chg.
(Spot) Close Chg.
DXY Index 95.3340 94.6080 0.7260 0.8% India’s rupee completed its worst weekly drop since January on fear of
EURUSD 1.1224 1.1309 -0.0085 -0.8% US interest rate hike which could accelerate outflows from emerging-
market assets. The Indian rupee on Friday weakened for the seventh
GBPUSD 1.4502 1.4365 0.0137 1.0% consecutive session against the US dollar, on concerns of slowing
USDJPY 110.1500 108.6300 1.5200 1.4% dollar inflows. Fall in local equity markets for the third consecutive
session also dampened investor sentiment. The rupee retreated 1%
USDINR 67.4463 66.7737 0.6726 1.0%
from May 13 to 67.4475, that’s the biggest drop since the period
EURINR 75.6750 75.8200 -0.1450 -0.2% ended Jan. 15.
GBPINR 98.2900 96.3161 1.9739 2.0%
Overseas holdings of local-currency debt fell by 42.8 billion rupees
JPYINR 61.1200 61.3700 -0.2500 -0.4% ($634 million) over the past four days, set for the biggest decline in 12
DGCX USDINR 67.4582 67.1953 0.2629 0.4% weeks, data from National Securities Depository Ltd. show.
Prev. %
Currency Last Chg.
Close Chg. India’s forex reserves marginally dipped
USDINR 67.4076 66.7609 0.6467 1.0%
India's foreign exchange reserves dipped marginally by $980 million to
EURINR 75.5437 75.7202 -0.1765 -0.2%
touch $361 billion for the week ended May 13, said the Reserve Bank
GBPINR 98.4555 96.1557 2.2998 2.4% of India in its weekly statistical report. Foreign exchange reserves
JPYINR 61.1700 61.4700 -0.3000 -0.5%
dipped for the second consecutive week after it fell by $1.1bn in the
previous week.
GOI 10 Yr. Bond Yield On May 13, the foreign currency assets stood at $337.04 billion, gold
$20.04 billion, special drawing rights $1.50 billion and the reserve position
with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stood at $2.43 billion.
Prev. %
Instrument Last Chg.
Close Chg.
Dollar index rises a third week, poised for longest winning streak since January as Fed officials and April FOMC minutes stress
that market may be mispricing rate-hike trajectory. Trading volumes subdued while price action mostly concentrated around
position-squaring flows ahead of G-7 summit in Japan.
The U.S. currency has rallied since the minutes of the Fed’s most recent meeting prompted traders to add to bets on a June
rate hike. The move was also spurred by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterating that he’s ready to add to
stimulus if necessary. Japan used a meeting of finance chiefs from the world’s major industrialized nations to warn of the
economic risks from sharp swings in the yen, even as the U.S. made clear that currency markets remain calm.
The yield premium offered by two-year U.S. Treasury notes over equivalent Japanese government bonds surged to the
highest since the 2008 financial crisis.
Week Ahead
US Week Ahead: A relatively quiet week for US data should generally show modest improvements. There are (again) plenty
of Fed speakers due, including Yellen on Friday. Also on Friday Q1 GDP is likely to be revised up to 0.9% from 0.5%, but all
the attention is already on the expected pick-up in Q2.
Fed speakers start with Tarullo, Bullard, Williams and Harker, only the first two voters. Harker is up again on Wednesday, as
are Kashkari and Kaplan, no voters here. Bullard speaks again on Thursday as does another voter in Powell. Yellen is
scheduled 30 minutes after the Michigan CSI on Friday.
Europe Week Ahead: A busy survey week in the Euro zone starts with flash May PMIs on Monday. Euro zone release of note
is Tuesday's final estimate of German Q1 GDP where the initial reading of 0.7%q/q, 1.6%y/y should be confirmed.
A quieter week for the UK starts with April PSNB on Tuesday and then it's the second estimate of Q1 GDP on Thursday where
we expect a downward adjustment 0.2% from 0.3% q/q, tapping the y/y lower to 2.0% from 2.1%. April BBA mortgage
approvals are also due.
Asia Week Ahead: Leaders of the Group of Seven nations gather in western Japan to discuss topics including economic
policy, climate change and boosting infrastructure investment.
NSE INRUSD Future May16 67.5425 0.61 1751339 34% 1713159 68%
NSE EURINR Future May16 75.8200 (0.18) 62271 5% 38165 -11%
NSE GBPINR Future May16 98.3800 1.86 46557 34% 65271 23%
NSE JPYINR Future May16 61.2400 (0.23) 25219 10% 15950 -49%
Support 66.96
Resistance 68.14
Support 74.69
Resistance 76.23
Support 97.38
Resistance 99.34
Support 59.95
Resistance 61.80
GBPUSD USDJPY
GBPUSD: Daily Chart
Bullish Trend Intact USDJPY: Daily Chart
Lower Top and Lower Bottom Intact
CALL PUT
USDINR OPTION OI DISTRIBUTION Strike
Price
350 OI Volume IV LTP LTP IV Volume OI
OI in Thousands
326.0
286.9
150 286934 71439 5.22 0.5775 67.00 0.025 4.86 306706 258000
258.0
100
165.2
161.8
155.2
24.5
29.0
41.8
3.6
1.2
1.8
165167 28688 5.62 0.0075 68.50 1.08 12.08 10 1243
0 214 252 6.36 0.005 68.75 1.295 12.44 - 224
65.50 66.00 66.50 67.00 67.50 68.00 68.50 69.00 41822 7492 7.44 0.005 69.00 1.57 15.26 - 1751
1338962 TOTAL 938021
CALL OI PUT OI
OI PUT CALL RATIO : 0.70 vs. 0.50
Data Interpretation:
Highest PUT OI seen at 67 strike price and same is likely to act as strong support for USDINR May futures.
Highest CALL OI is placed at 67.50 and same is likely to act as a strong resistance going forward. The chances of May expiry
to remain above 67.50 seems to be low.
The put call ratio of Open Interest move higher to 0.70 from previous week’s 0.50.
Data Interpretation:
Last week, USDINR May future posted gain of 0.61% to close at 67.56. There were addition of 34% in open interest to 17.15
million. So there was a clear cut Long build up seen in USDINR May futures.
Rise in USDINR along with open interest and volumes, indicating bullishness in the existing trend.
MAJOR COMMODITIES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
COMMODITY OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
GOLD 1254.75 1260.37 1248.91 1251.98 (0.22) (1.69) 0.62 3.59
SILVER 16.49 16.65 16.42 16.53 0.26 (3.40) (2.55) 8.86
CRUDE OIL 48.72 49.29 47.95 48.41 (0.53) 3.22 7.53 36.37
MAJOR INDICES
1 DAY 5 DAY 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS
INDEX OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE
(% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG) (% CHG)
Nifty 50 7792.2 7812.4 7735.8 7749.7 (0.43) (0.83) (1.89) 9.00
S&P BSE SENSEX INDEX 25428.4 25506.1 25251.9 25301.9 (0.39) (0.74) (2.08) 8.08
DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 17437.3 17571.8 17437.3 17500.9 0.38 (0.20) (2.79) 6.51
S&P 500 INDEX 2041.9 2058.4 2041.9 2052.3 0.60 0.28 (1.88) 6.82
NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 4729.4 4781.7 4729.0 4769.6 1.21 1.10 (2.79) 5.91
FTSE 100 INDEX 6053.4 6156.5 6053.4 6156.3 1.70 0.29 (2.44) 3.25
CAC 40 INDEX 4323.6 4353.9 4312.5 4353.9 1.67 0.78 (4.72) 2.72
DAX INDEX 9878.5 9921.6 9852.7 9916.0 1.23 0.55 (4.41) 5.30
NIKKEI 225 16595.0 16770.9 16548.3 16736.4 0.54 1.97 (4.76) 4.26
HANG SENG INDEX 19631.7 19954.3 19631.7 19852.2 0.80 0.67 (7.52) 2.25
SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE 2792.9 2826.0 2785.1 2825.5 0.66 (0.06) (4.52) (2.68)
How Importers And Exporters Could Use A Forex Hedge To Minimise Losses
An important tool in the global financial markets, hedging is used in every asset class to mitigate losses. This can be
utilised by anyone, whether it is an individual or corporate, to overcome the negative impact of price volatility.
For the corporate in which the business activity is dependent on import and export of commodities, there is an
automatic exposure to foreign exchange and, hence, the need for hedging is higher. In the current context, since the
world markets are interlinked, they eventually affect and impact the movement of currencies.
Hedging, in any asset class, is ultimately a strategy to decrease or transfer risk in order to protect one's portfolio or
business from uncertainty in prices. In case of hedging in the foreign exchange market, a participant who is entering
a trade with the intention of protecting the existing position from an unexpected currency move, is said to have
created a forex hedge.
With the help of a forex hedge, a participant who is long in a foreign currency pair, can protect himself from the
downside risk. On the other hand, a hedger who is short on a foreign currency pair will protect his existing position
from the upside risk.
The strategy to create a hedge would depend on the following parameters: (a) risk component (b) risk tolerance and
(c) to plan and execute the strategy.
The impact of the movement in the USD-INR currencies affects both importers and exporters. In other words, an
importer will benefit when the rupee appreciates, while the exporter will gain when the rupee depreciates against the
US dollar. The cost of import reduces when the rupee gains strength, thus benefiting an importer, and at the same
time creating a loss for the exporter, since a stronger rupee will reduce the export remittances when converted to
Indian rupees.
In order to reduce the risks associated with these uncertain movements in the financial markets, both importers and
exporters can utilize the derivatives platform of currency futures. By creating an equal and opposite position in the
derivatives market, a hedge can be created.
Suppose an oil importer wants to purchase oil worth $1,00,000 and places his order on 11 March 2016, with the
delivery date being three months away. At the time of placing the contract in the spot market, one US dollar is worth,
say, Rs 66.50. However, suppose the Indian rupee depreciates to Rs 69 per dollar when the payment is due in June
2016, the value of the payment for the importer goes up to Rs 69,00,000 rather than Rs 66,50,000.
In this case, if the importer hedges the currency risk, the losses can be reduced. Here's how the hedging strategy for
the importer would work:
Buy 100 lots of USD June 2016 contracts on 11th March 2016, assuming that June 2016 contract is trading at 67 on
11th March 2016.
Then in June 2016, He square off 100 lots USD at 69. Profit of Rs. 200000, i.e. 1000 lot size* (69-67) *100.
Then importer makes the payment of oil purchase at 69 per dollar
Had the importer not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 2,50,000 (Rs 69,00,000 - Rs
66,50,000). However, by creating a hedge position on the futures platform, his losses were reduced to Rs 50,000 due
to profits in currency hedge.
In March 2016, Sell 50 lots of June 2016 contract USD with a lot size of 1000,spot market @66.50. Assume that
initially the Indian rupee depreciated, but later appreciated to 64 per USD as foreseen by the exporter at end of June
2016.
Had the exporter not hedged his position, he would have suffered a loss of Rs 75,000, i.e. (50*1000*(66.50-64)), but
by creating a hedge he has made a profit of Rs 75,000 in the futures, offsetting his business loss. Hence, exposure
management is essential, given the premise of a volatile foreign exchange market. Hedging in the currency markets,
therefore, holds prime importance.
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Above HDFC Bank, Astral Tower, Nr. Mithakadi 6 Road, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat.
Phone: (079) 66090040 /66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com
"HDFC Securities Ltd. is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475."
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