Chapter 3

Discrete Random Variables

and Probability Distributions

3.3 The Binomial Distribution

We will begin with an exercise that will help us gain
more insight on what a binomial random variable is.
Exercise 1:
A six-sided fair die is tossed three times. Let X be a
random variable that represents the number of times
5 is observed.
Find the probability distribution of X
Find the probability that X =2
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Definition
An experiment that satisfies the following conditions
is called a binomial experiment.
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n smaller
experiments called trials, where n is fixed in advance
of the experiment.
2. Each trial can result in one of the same two
possible outcomes (dichotomous trials), which we
generically denote by success (S) and failure (F).
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3. The trials are independent, so that the outcome on

any particular trial does not influence the outcome on
any other trial.
4. The probability of success P(S) is constant from
trial to trial; we denote this probability by p.
Examples:
Tossing a coing n times and observing the number
of tails.
The number of defective identical chips in a
shipment of n chips.
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The Binomial Random Variable and Distribution

The binomial random variable X associated with a
binomial experiment consisting of n trials is defined
as
X = the number of Ss among the n trials
Because the pmf of a binomial rv, X, depends on the
two parameters n and p, the pmf of X is denoted by
b(x;n,p), or X~ b(x;n,p). The notations , X~ b(n,p) and
X~ Bin(n,p), are also commonly used.
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In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X

successes in n trials is

P(X=x) = b(x;n,p) =

when x = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., n, and 0 elsewhere.

Please note that the mean and varince are,
E(X) =np and V(X) = npq
where q=1 p (probability of failure).
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Exercise 2:
A coin is tossed 4 times. Find the probability of
getting exactly 2 tails. Find the mean and the
variance of the number of tails observed.
Exercise 3:
A students is writing a test that consists of 10
multiple choice questions, with 5 choices each. The
student is not prepared and will answer each question

by guessing. What is the probability that the student

will pass the test.
Rule:
Consider sampling without replacement from a
dichotomous population of size N. If the sample size
(number of trials) n is at most 5% of the population
size, the experiment can be analyzed as though it
were exactly a binomial experiment.

3.5 Hypergeometric and Negative Binomial

Distributions
The Hypergromtric Distribution
Consider the following assumtpions:
1.The population or set to be sampled consists of N
individuals, objects, or elements (a finite population).
2. Each individual can be characterized as a success
(S) or a failure (F), and there are M successes in the
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population.
3. A sample of n individuals is selected without
replacement in such a way that each subset of size n
is equally likely to be chosen.
The number of successes, X, in the sample obtained
follows a probability distribution with parameters n,
N, and M.

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The distribution of X is called the hypergeometric

distribution and is given by:

E(X) = =n

, V(X)=2 =

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Note: The binomial distribution is for when sampling

with replacement and the hypergeometric is for
sampling without replacement. However, as we've
seen in the previous section, sampling without
replacement can also be approximated with binomial,
providing that the sample size, n, is at most 5% of the
population size, N.

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Exercise 4:
Ten people apply for a job as assistant manager of a
restaurant. Five have completed university and five
have not. If the manager selects 3 applicants at
random, find the probability that all 3 are university
graduates.
Exercise 5:
A lot of 12 compressor tanks is checked to see
whether there are any defective tanks. Three tanks are
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checked for leaks. If 1 or more of the 3 is defective,

the lot is rejected. Find the probability that the lot
will be rejected if there are actually 3 defective tanks
in a lot.
Exercise 6:
A company sells packages of 10 light bulbs and has a
money back guarantee that none of the bulbs in a
pack will be defective. Each light bulb has a
probability of 0.01 of being defective.
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A. What is the probability a pack of light bulbs will

be returned?
B. If you buy 10 packages of bulbs, what is the
probability you will return at least three of the
packages?
Exercise 7:
Your favourite cereal company is offering, for a
limited time, free movie tickets. For the promotion
the company produces 500000 boxes, of which 1000
contain the free movie tickets. If you buy 20 boxes
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during this promotion, what is the probability you

win at least once?
The Negative Binomial Distribution
The negative binomial rv and distribution are based
on an experiment satisfying the following conditions:
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of
independent trials.
2. Each trial can result in either a success(S) or a
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failure(F).
3. The probability of success is constant from trial to
trial, so P(S on trial i) = p for i = 1, 2, 3, . . . .
4.The experiment continues (trials are performed)
until a total of r successes have been observed, where
r is a specified positive integer.
The random variable of interest is X = the number of
failures that precede the rth success; X is called a
negative binomial random variable because, in
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contrast to the binomial rv, the number of successes

is fixed and the number of trials is random.
The pmf of the negative binomial rv X with
parameters r = number of Ss and p = P(S) is:
P(X=x) = nb(x;r,p) =

E(X) =

, V(X) = =
2

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Exercise 8:
An oil company conducts a geological study that
indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a
20% chance of striking oil.
1. What is the probability that the first strike comes
on the third well drilled?
2. What is the probability that the third strike comes
on the seventh well drilled?

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