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The Project
The Project can be divided into four major parts:
Analysis
Modelling of Data:
Generally the annual mean temperatures fluctuate a lot. So we take a 20
years average as we can see that it follows smoother curve.
We aim to model our temperature data such that it allows us to predict
temperature trends in the nearby future. For the same we choose to fit our
data points in the range of 1990-2012 our region of Interest.
We will also model the population growth in California from 1850-2012 and
work in the same region of interest.
Regarding CO2 emissions: we have data for net emissions per year. In order
to better understand its influence on temperatures, we need to take into
account the total CO2 levels in the atmosphere i.e cumulative emissions
every year.
Modelling: Temperature
P = 46127100/(1 + EXP(-0.04362*(Y-1976.94792)))
CO2 (C) Levels vs Year (Y):
Predictions: Correlation
A correlation coefficient is a coefficient that illustrates a quantitative
measure of some type of correlation and dependence, meaning statistical
relationships between two or more random variables or observed data
values.
Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient, also known as r, R, or
Pearson's r, a measure of the strength and direction of the linear
relationship between two variables that is defined as the
(sample) covariance of the variables divided by the product of their
(sample) standard deviations.
Gives a value between +1 and 1 inclusive, where 1 is total positive
correlation, 0 is no correlation, and 1 is total negative correlation
Prediction: Observations
= 2 ()
=
= + 2
Eliminating t we get,
(
2
= + 2(
References
Berkeley Earth. (2016). About Berkeley Earth - Berkeley Earth. [online] Available at:
http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/regions/california [Accessed Apr. 2016].