SASKATOON SHOWDOWN

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5 AM MST - OCTOBER 6, 2016

PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 852 Saskatoon Residents by Smart IVR on October 4, 2016. A mixture of landlines and
cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.36%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on
the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

MOORE LEADS, ATCHISON DIPS, CLARK STALLED

October 6, 2016 (Montral, QC) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds Kelley Moore leading the race to
be Saskatoons next mayor with Don Atchison in second and Charlie Clark in third. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.38%, 19 times out of 20.
Moore has gained 5% and now leads the mayoral race, statistically tied with Don Atchison said David
Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. Atchison has dropped 1 point to 25%, with the
polls margin of error of +/- 3.38% he and Moore are locked in a tight battle. Meanwhile Charlie Clark
appears to be stalled at 23%, the same level of support he registered last week and running a close third.
Devon Hein brings ups the rear with 4%, a 3% increase from last week.
As the election campaign grows nearer the number of undecided voters has dropped to 21%, the lowest
we have measured for the civic election so far. However, support for all three candidates is relatively soft
which means there is room for plenty of movement.
Though these are positive numbers for Moore the true test is if she can continue to grow them and build
a real margin - and withstand what are sure to be new attacks and scrutiny from the three other mayoral
candidates. Weve seen Atchisons numbers be relatively steady and then trend downwards, something hell
need to reverse if he plans to return to the mayors chair. Even with three candidates splitting the
anti-incumbent vote, Atchison is now in second. For Clark, he will need to nd new ways to draw dierences
between himself and Kelley Moore.
This poll, taken after the Saskatoon Chamber of Commerce Debate and CBC morning roundtable, appears
to be capturing new campaign dynamics. There are still plenty more debates to go, including a major
debate being held by the Saskatoon Star Phoenix, candidates will have more opportunities to draw
contrasts and present their ideas and solutions.
It is still far too early to predict a winner but one thing for certain is that this looks to be a competitive race
between the top three candidates, nished Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, Mainstreet Research
Call: 514-913-5524 or E-mail: david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?

100

4% 21%

28%

22%

50

27%

22%

60

18%

70

15%

80

26%

90

23%

23%

24%

30

26%

40

20

29%

26%

25%

29%

10

July

Sept 13

Sept 27

Oct 4

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A4

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, which candidate would you vote for?
[DEMOGRAPHIC]

Saskatoon 25%
Male

27%

Female

23%

18-34 17%

23%
23%

21%

65+ 29%

Don Atchison

20%

31%
22%

8%
20

22%

30%

33%

50-64 29%

10

21%

25%

23%

35-49 28%

27%

30

Charlie Clark

16%
40

28%

5% 18%

29%

20%

8%
50

16%

60

Kelley Moore

38%
70

80

Devon Hein

90

100

Undecided

A5

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, which candidate would you vote for?
[TRACKING]

30

25

20

15

10

0
July

Sept 13

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Someone Else

Sept 27

Henry DayDay
Devon Hein

Oct 4

Kelley Moore

Undecided

A6

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, which candidate would you vote for?
[DECIDED ONLY]

29%

34%
32%

5%

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

A7

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran? [BY LIKELY VOTERS]

7%
7%

24%

25%

31%

2%

Certain

Likely
29%

23%
25%

25%

12%

19%

19%

26%
9%

12%

Might

Unlikely

12%

30%

38%

23%

A8

Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of

this candidate or is there a chance you will
change your mind before the election?

12%
24%

Atchison
29%

Clark

65%
11%

59%

24%

Moore

Hein

51%

25%

Strong Supporter

Might Change Mind

Not Sure

A9

Who would be your second choice for mayor?

[MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

6%

18%
46%

34%

Atchison

54%

Clark

29%

6%

7%

16%
41%

Hein

Moore

36%

7%

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A10

FAVOURABILITY RATINGS

12%

19%

0%
35%

37%

12%

Atchison

Clark

53%
32%

8%

16%

26%

12%

28%

Hein

Moore

18%
28%
64%

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Familiar

Not Sure

A11

SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Saskatoon mayoral election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
If the election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of this candidate or is there a chance you will change your
mind before the election? [Decided Voters Only]
Strong Supporter
Might Change Your Mind
Not Sure
Who would be your second choice? [Might Change Your Mind/Not Sure Voters Only]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Don Atchison?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Charlie Clark?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kelley Moore?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Devon Hein?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with (Candidate Name)

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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