Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
High Speed
Railways
Group-9
Mumbai-Pune
(192 km)
2.
Delhi-Chandigarh-Amritsar
3.
Hyderabad-Dornakal-Vijayawada-Chennai
4.
5.
Delhi-Agra-Lucknow-Varanasi-Patna
(450 km)
(664 km)
(991 km)
Length of the route : Cost around ten times the normal route (6o million INR
per km) - Economies of scale for viability
2.
3.
Viability Gap Funding, PPP - Attractive with future increase in Customer Base -
4.
5.
Train
Daily
transport
(2007-08)a
1790
Air
Highways
Total
HSR
Daily
transport
(2015-16)
Time of
Travel
1875
Estimated
Data for
2025
500 50 min
12873 3hr 15min
Total
Time
Average
present travel
Cost (INR)
600
21123
32min
1hr
Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
Rs 1200
ALT1A*1
Rs 1200
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 1800
ALT1A*2
Rs 2400
Mode of
Transport
Time of Travel
Total Time
Train
10hr 30min
11hr 30min
Rs 2270
Air
1hr 10min
2hr 30 min
Rs 2500
HSR
3hr
3hr 30min
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
Rs 2270
ALT1A*1
Rs 2270
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 3405
ALT1A*2
Rs 4540
Train
Daily
transport
(2007-08)a
4858
Air
Highways
Total
HSR
Daily
transport
(2015-16)
Time of
Travel
21000 7hr
1836
1721
Estimated
Data for
2025
5600 1 hr
11800 7hr
Total
Time
8hr
5hr
7hr
Average
present travel
Cost (INR)
1500
2000
1200
38400
100min
160 min
Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
Rs 1500
ALT1A*1
Rs 1500
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 2250
ALT1A*2
Rs 3000
Bus and conventional rail users are mostly expected to shift to High Speed Railway
Mode of
Transport
Time of Travel
Total Time
Train
7 hr
8 hr
Rs 1500
Air
1 hr
5 hr
Rs 2000
HSR
1.67 hr
2.7 hr
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
Rs 1500
ALT1A*1
Rs 1500
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 2250
ALT1A*2
Rs 3000
Train
Daily
transport
(2007-08)a
Total
HSR
Estimated
Data for
2025
4840
Air
Highways
Daily
transport
(2015-16)
1770
Time of
Travel
0 50 min
12150 3hr 15min
Total
Time
Average
present travel
Cost (INR)
NA
600
33373
90min
1hr 30min
Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
Rs 1230
ALT1A*1
Rs 1230
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 1845
ALT1A*2
Rs 2460
Train
Daily
transport
(2007-08)a
210
Air
Highways
Total
HSR
Daily
transport
(2015-16)
Time of
Travel
900 8hr
865
1720
Estimated
Data for
2025
2640 1 hr
11800 8 hr
Total
Time
9 hr
4 hr
9 hr
Average
present travel
Cost (INR)
2100
2000
Rs 2100
ALT1A*1
Rs 2100
ALT1A*1.5
Rs 3150
ALT1A*2
Rs 4200
2000
38400
110min
Fare 1AC
(ALT1A)
2hr50min
Source: aTotal Transport System System Study on Traffic Flows and Modal Costs
Financing Options
1.
2.
Self Funding
a. High capital investment to be borne by Indian Railways
b. All the risk will be on the Indian Railways
c. Could function through a subsidiary or an public sector undertaking
d. Technical concerns regarding Indian Railways lack of experience with HSR
PPP using BOT
a. Bundled/Unbundled
b. In case of bundled, a single private player might not be ready to take up the
high capital investment and high risk of the project
c. Unbundling the construction, rolling stocks and operations would help
reduce risk and expenses of the players involved thus making the project
more lucrative
Financing Options
3.
4.
The foreign governments could help with the funding while the private
parties could take up the individual unbundled activities
Would reduce risks for any one single player while keeping the options for
different technologies open
Cost
2.
3.
Population
4.
Rail time
5.
Place
Distance
(indicator
of Cost)
GDDP
(in thousand
crore)
2013-14
Population
(in
thousand)
2011
Rail time
(expected
for HSR)
Per Capita
Income (in
INR)
2013
IRR
MumbaiPunea
Mumbai
180 km
334.42
12442
32 min
1.67 lakhs
0%
172.15
9429
68.16
3794
41.5
(2011-12)
4646
391.125
16750
14.9
1585
Pune
HyderabadbChennaic
Hyderabad
700 km
Chennai
Delhid- Agrae
Delhi
Agra
184 km
1.55 lakhs
4 hrs
1.32 lakhs
12%
1.11 lakhs
90 min
2.12 lakhs
5%
.9 lakhs
Source: aEconomic Survey of Maharashtra 2014-15; bSocio-Economic Outlook, Govt. of Telangana, 2015
c
Statistical Handbook 2015, Govt of Tamil Nadu; dEconomic Survey of India 2014; eEconomic Survey of Uttar Pradesh 2014
Place
Distance
(indicator
of Cost)
GDDP
(in thousand
crore)
2013-14
Population
(in
thousand)
2011
Rail time
(expected
for HSR)
Per Capita
Income (in
INR)
2013
IRR
BangaloregChennai
Bangalore
Urban
382 km
170.7
(2012-13)
8750
2hr 40min
2.02 lakhs
15%
41.5
(2011-12)
4646
391.125
16750
Chandigarh
29.08
1055
1.57 lakhs
Amritsar
13.1 (NDDP
2491
.63 lakhs
Chennai
DelhiChandigarhfAmritsarh
Delhi
260 km
1.11 lakhs
1hr 45min
2009-10)
2.12 lakhs
10%
Population Trends
Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata are
most populated and its growth is
going to slow down (as per
studies.)
Chennai and Bangalore will grow
in future at faster rate.
Reasons:
1.
Conclusion
Bangalore-Chennai Route to be the second
choice
Number of Originating
Passengers > 2million
2.
3.
4.
IRR Calculation
Source: MODAL SHIFT ESTIMATION AND FINANCIAL VIABILITY OF HIGH SPEED RAIL IN INDIA: THE CASE STUDY OF AHMEDABAD MUMBAI CORRIDOR - Ramakrishnan
T.S
Modal Shift from Air to HSR according to the curve Relationship between Rail
Speed and Market Share
Modal Shift of 1.7 % of the Rail (1A,2A,3A,FC) users to HSR
Modal Shift of 1.7% of the Bus Users to HSR
The construction starts from 2017 and operation from 2015, horizon of 2040
Land acquisition in the first three years of construction
Construction costs - 60 million INR per kilometer
Land acquisition proportional to the length of HSR
Construction cost and land acquisition Schedule with respect to year from
Ramakrishnan T.S.
Base rate of land acquisition calculation form Mumbai Ahmedabad Corridor.
Rolling stock cost & the Operation Cost per passenger from Ramakrishnan T.S.
Assumptions : Revenues
1.
2.
3.
4.
2627
2728
2829
2930
3031
3132
3233
3334
3435
3536
3637
3738
3839
3940
4041
4.75
5.57
6.52
7.63
8.93
10.45
11.64
16
14.44
16.08
17.9
19.95
22.2
24.7
27.6
30.7
Rolling Stock
with 954
occupancy
10
10
10
Procurement
Total
Passengers
(in thousands)
2017-18
18-19
19-20
20-21
21-22
22-23
23-24
24-25
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.1
389240
419834
452833
488426
526816
568224
612887
661060
20992
45283
97685
147509
125009
61289
33053
19 - 20
23 - 24
24 - 25
25 - 26
-187220
-221640
-45283
-61289
-33053
-187220
0.15
-266923
-61289
-33053
26 - 27
30 - 31
31 - 32
32 - 33
36 - 37
40 - 41
-182672
-287631
-57
-71
-181
-218
-262
-545
-1135
93772
118378
300641
379527
479113
1216793
3090263
-88956
118306
300460
91679
478851
1216248
3089128