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Electrical
energy
The challenge of the next decades
Bernhard Jucker, Peter Leupp, Tom Sjkvist
Electrical energy
Political drivers
300
+ $ 15 k/capita:
services start to
dominate growth
250
200
+ $ 10 k/capita:
industrialization
near complete
150
100
+ $ 5 k/capita:
industrialization and
mobility take off
50
0
10
15
20
25
GDP/capita ($ 1,000 1997 PPP)
US
Australia
EU
Japan
Korea
China
Mexico
India
Brazil
30
35
Thailand
Source: BP
Electrical energy
Economic drivers
ly declining population levels, expansion of information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure,
and the switch to economical heating
and cooling devices are the main
reasons for the flat demand curve.
The vast growth in demand for electrical energy is expected to continue
over the next two decades and is estimated to require an investment of
$ 10,000 billion in new electrical infrastructure, about half of which is needed for transmission and distribution
systems.
Billion kW
20,000
OECD
History
Projections
1.5
North America
Europe
15,000
Asia
0.8
1.4
Non-OECD
Europe/Eurasia
2.3
10,000
4.4
China
OECD
India
Middle East
Non-OECD
10
3.8
Other Asia
5,000
0
1980
3.9
Africa
Central/South America
1995
2.9
2015
2030
3.5
2.9
Average annual percent change
Electrical energy
11
Electrical energy
Electrical energy
bility [3]. New concepts like the unified power flow controller (UPFC) and
the variable frequency transformer
(VFT) have to show their customer
acceptance yet. Monitoring systems
like phasor measurement units are
slowly being installed in power networks, which will, when fully deployed, increase the possibility of
operating a system close to its limit [4].
Compact circuit breakers and gas-insulated switchgear have reduced substation footprints and made it possible
to build substations indoors important factors in urban environments
and megacities where space is expensive and in short supply3) [7]. By replacing oil-paper insulation with
cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulation, the viable length of AC cables has increased by a factor of two
and made underground high-voltage
direct current (HVDC) cables economical for long distances [8].
References
[1] ABB Review Special Report Motors and Drives (2004), 164.
Bernhard Jucker
ABB Power Products
Peter Leupp
ABB Power Systems
Tom Sjkvist
ABB Automation Products
Footnotes
3)
4)
Factbox
[2] DeVries, T., McDowall, J., Umbricht, N., Linhofer, G. Cold storage. ABB Review 1/2004, 3843.
[3] Grnbaum, R., Petersson, ., Thorvaldsson, B. FACTS. ABB Review 3/2002, 1118.
[4] Korba, P., Scholtz, E., Leirbukt, A., Uhlen, K. Combining forces to provide stability.
[7] Frei, C., Kirrmann, H., Kostic, T., Maeda, T., Obrist, M. Speed and quality. ABB Review 4/2007, 3841.
[8] Ravemark, D., Normark, B. Light and invisible. ABB Review 4/2005, 2529.
[9] Nestli, T. F., Stendius, L., Johansson, M. J., Abrahamsson, A., Kjaer, P. C. Powering Troll with new
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