Stat4432/Sec10/20

Fall 2016

Announcement
Welcome to STAT 4432/Fall 2016
Outline will be posted in Moodle and
discussed in class.
Moodle registration: PW: STAT4432FL16.
Students are strongly encouraged not to
miss classesattendance system is directly
controlled by A&R.
Home work one will be posted in Moodle soon.
Eid Mubarak in advanced.

Lecture One: General Review

On board!!!

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

1.1 Regression and Model Building

Regression analysis is a statistical
technique for investigating and modeling
the relationship between variables.
Equation of a straight line (classical)

y = mx +b
we usually write this as
y = 0 +1x
Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

1.1 Regression and Model Building

Not all observations will fall exactly on a
straight line.
y = 0 + 1x +
where represents error
- it is a random variable that accounts for the
failure of the model to fit the data exactly.
- ~ N(0, 2)
Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

1.1 Regression and Model Building

Example: (Delivery time data: Soft drink vending
machines). Studying relationship between time
it takes to load and service vending machines
and the number of cases delivered. See page 1.

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

1.1 Regression and Model Building

Simple Linear Regression Model (SLR)

where y dependent (response) variable

x independent (regressor/predictor) variable
0 - intercept
1 - slope
- random error term
Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

 Exploring relationship by using scatter

diagram (This is where you start)

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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1.1 Regression and Model Building

The mean response at any value, x, of the
regressor variable is

The variance of y at any given x is

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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Figure 1.3 Linear regression (empirical models) approximation

of a complex relationship (mechanistic models).
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edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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Figure 1.4 Piecewise linear approximation of a

complex relationship.
Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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Figure 1.5 The danger of extrapolation in regression.

Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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1.1 Regression and Model Building

Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLR)

More about MLR in Ch3.

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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1.3 Uses of Regression

There are many uses of regression, including:
1.
2.
3.
4.

Data description
Parameter estimation
Prediction and estimation
Control

Regression analysis is perhaps the most

widely used statistical technique, and
probably the most widely misused.
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edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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1.3 Uses of Regression

Cause and Effect Relationships
Caution: just because you can fit a linear
model to a set of data, does not mean you
should.
It is relatively easy to build nonsense
relationships between variables
Regression does not necessarily imply
causality
Linear Regression Analysis 5th
edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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Model building in regression

Collect (X,Y)s data set.

Scatter diagram.
Lead to an approximate model
Fit of the model to the data.

Model adequacy checking.

Linear Regression Analysis 5th

edition Montgomery, Peck & Vining

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