Procedimiento para construir curvas I-D-Tr con registros pluviomtricos

1. Seleccionar la estacin ms cercana y descargar precipitacin mxima anual

Datos de la Estacin XXXXXX
Ao
Pr (mm)
1956
98.9
1957
102.8
1958
114.1
1959
90.4
1960
63.3
1961
99.4
1962
75.1
1963
79.7
1964
92.7
1965
64.4
1966
67.8
1967
68.4
1968
140.1
1969
97.2
1970
133.3
1972
58.8
1973
76.8
1974
111.3
1975
118.7
1976
75.7
1977
46.9
1978
74.6
1979
97.2
1980
132.2
1981
135.6
1982
67.8
1983
127.7
1984
74.6
1985
92.7
1986
130.0
1987
124.3
1988
67.8
1989
84.8
1990
62.2
1991
79.1
1992
152.6
1993
46.9
1994
68.9
1995
67.8
1996
62.2
1997
84.8
1998
113.0
1999
110.7
2000
67.8
2001
97.7
2002
92.7
2003
86.7
2004
80.2
2005
117.9
2006
62.2
2007
90.4
2008
316.4
2010
86.1
2011
113.3
2012
169.7
2013
90.4
Tabla 1. P. mximas en 24 h

Tabla 2. Das con lluvia.

Pr - Precipitaciones registradas, en milmetros

Factor de correccin por intervalo fijo de observacin de la precipitacin mxima en 24 h: Fc =
El primer paso consiste en multiplicar los valores de la tabla 1 por el factor de correccin Fc
Ao
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013

Pr ( mm )
98.9
102.8
114.1
90.4
63.3
99.4
75.1
79.7
92.7
64.4
67.8
68.4
140.1
97.2
133.3
58.8
76.8
111.3
118.7
75.7
46.9
74.6
97.2
132.2
135.6
67.8
127.7
74.6
92.7
130.0
124.3
67.8
84.8
62.2
79.1
152.6
46.9
68.9
67.8
62.2
84.8
113.0
110.7
67.8
97.7
92.7
86.7
80.2
117.9
62.2
90.4
316.4
86.1
113.3
169.7
90.4

Tabla 3. Precipitacin mxima diaria

2. Periodo de retorno emprico, Probabilidad de excedencia y Funcin de distribucin acumulada

Los valores de la tabla 3 se ordenan por su magnitud de mayor a menor, expresndose en la tabla 4 y se calcula:
P - Probabilidad de excedencia
Tr - Periodo de retorno emprico, en aos
F ( P ) - Funcin de distribucin acumulada para la variable precipitaciones mximas (prob. de no excedencia)

Pr de > a <

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

S=

n +1
m
P=
n +1
m
57.00
0.02
28.50
0.04
19.00
0.05
14.25
0.07
11.40
0.09
9.50
0.11
8.14
0.12
7.13
0.14
6.33
0.16
5.70
0.18
5.18
0.19
4.75
0.21
4.38
0.23
4.07
0.25
3.80
0.26
3.56
0.28
3.35
0.30
3.17
0.32
3.00
0.33
2.85
0.35
2.71
0.37
2.59
0.39
2.48
0.40
2.38
0.42
2.28
0.44
2.19
0.46
2.11
0.47
2.04
0.49
1.97
0.51
1.90
0.53
1.84
0.54
1.78
0.56
1.73
0.58
1.68
0.60
1.63
0.61
1.58
0.63
1.54
0.65
1.50
0.67
1.46
0.68
1.43
0.70
1.39
0.72
1.36
0.74
1.33
0.75
1.30
0.77
1.27
0.79
1.24
0.81
1.21
0.82
1.19
0.84
1.16
0.86
1.14
0.88
1.12
0.89
1.10
0.91
1.08
0.93
1.06
0.95
1.04
0.96
1.02
0.98

Tr =

Tabla 4. Precipitacin mxima diaria

F(P) =

Tr - 1

0.982
0.965
0.947
0.930
0.912
0.895
0.877
0.860
0.842
0.825
0.807
0.789
0.772
0.754
0.737
0.719
0.702
0.684
0.667
0.649
0.632
0.614
0.596
0.579
0.561
0.544
0.526
0.509
0.491
0.474
0.456
0.439
0.421
0.404
0.386
0.368
0.351
0.333
0.316
0.298
0.281
0.263
0.246
0.228
0.211
0.193
0.175
0.158
0.140
0.123
0.105
0.088
0.070
0.053
0.035
0.018

Tr

LN(Pr)
5.757
5.134
5.027
4.942
4.910
4.893
4.884
4.867
4.850
4.823
4.776
4.769
4.737
4.730
4.727
4.712
4.707
4.633
4.600
4.594
4.582
4.577
4.577
4.529
4.529
4.529
4.504
4.504
4.504
4.462
4.456
4.440
4.440
4.385
4.378
4.371
4.342
4.327
4.319
4.312
4.312
4.233
4.225
4.217
4.217
4.217
4.217
4.217
4.165
4.148
4.130
4.130
4.130
4.073
3.848
3.848

3. Parmetros estadsticos. Se determinan con los comandos de EXCEL

Nmero de datos: n =

56

Media aritmtica de las precipitaciones:

P =

Desviacin estndar de las precipitaciones:

Pr

S =

( Pr

96.51

- P )2

n -1
PY =

Media aritmtica de los logaritmos de las precipitaciones:

Desviacin estndar de los logaritmos de las precipitaciones:

Sy =

= 40.34
Ln ( Py )
=
n

( Pr -

Py ) 2

n -1

4.508

0.335

4. Prueba de error estndar de ajuste con datos de precipitaciones mximas anuales

en 24 horas para los siguientes modelos:
FRMULA DE LA PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE.

E.E =

i =1

( P T - Pr ) 2

n - mp

1/ 2

n - Nmero de datos o tamao de la muestra

m p - Nmero de estimadores del modelo (nmero de parmetros de ajuste)

4.1. Distribucin exponencial con parmetro b.

1
P Tr = - Ln 1 - F ( P )

1
=
=
P

Pr de > a <

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

S=

P T r

0.0104

( P Tr - Pr ) 2

390.19
323.29
284.16
256.40
234.86
217.27
202.39
189.50
178.14
167.97
158.77
150.37
142.65
135.50
128.84
122.61
116.76
111.24
106.02
101.07
96.37
91.88
87.59
83.48
79.54
75.75
72.11
68.60
65.22
61.94
58.78
55.72
52.75
49.86
47.07
44.35
41.70
39.13
36.62
34.18
31.80
29.47
27.20
24.98
22.81
20.69
18.62
16.58
14.60
12.65
10.73
8.86
7.02
5.22
3.45
1.71

5444.52
23582.74
17321.74
13520.68
9853.20
7043.87
4925.37
3546.70
2544.91
1906.98
1609.68
1057.19
813.32
490.96
250.85
127.80
36.23
70.78
43.36
4.84
1.90
28.13
92.03
84.29
172.15
285.80
334.44
475.13
634.24
611.42
746.73
843.00
1024.26
922.04
1062.61
1207.66
1234.51
1338.05
1483.88
1632.13
1830.35
1556.95
1694.48
1833.36
2023.79
2219.14
2418.99
2622.98
2481.53
2563.87
2643.59
2839.81
3039.11
2866.75
1887.72
2041.85
144974.43

Tabla 5. Precipitacin con la distribucin exponencial b

mp= 1

E.E = 51.341

T ( aos )

F(P)

PTr24 h

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

66.89
155.32
222.22
289.11
310.65
377.54
444.44
511.33
599.76
666.65
733.55
821.98

4.2. Distribucin exponencial con parmetros Xo y b.

- Ln 1 - F( P )
p Tr = Xo

= P - S = 56.17
Xo

Pr de > a <

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

S=

P T r

= S = 40.3378

( P Tr - Pr ) 2

219.26
191.30
174.94
163.34
154.34
146.98
140.76
135.38
130.63
126.38
122.53
119.02
115.79
112.80
110.02
107.42
104.97
102.67
100.49
98.42
96.45
94.57
92.78
91.06
89.42
87.83
86.31
84.84
83.43
82.06
80.74
79.46
78.22
77.01
75.84
74.71
73.60
72.53
71.48
70.46
69.46
68.49
67.54
66.61
65.71
64.82
63.95
63.10
62.27
61.46
60.66
59.87
59.11
58.35
57.61
56.88
S=

9436.57
465.35
501.42
539.07
351.07
186.11
73.18
29.46
8.62
4.31
15.07
1.35
2.77
0.29
8.87
15.11
33.26
0.03
1.09
0.21
1.68
6.80
19.37
2.55
10.53
23.29
16.72
30.87
48.60
21.25
28.81
28.01
42.68
10.35
14.61
19.30
10.49
10.14
13.45
17.00
26.21
0.19
0.68
1.41
4.39
8.89
14.81
22.07
4.58
3.33
2.23
5.18
9.27
0.17
114.83
99.78
12367.74

Tabla 6. Precipitacin con distribucin exponencial Xo y b

mp= 2

E.E = 15.13

T ( aos )

F(P)

PTr24 h

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

84.13
121.09
149.05
177.01
186.01
213.97
241.93
269.89
306.85
334.81
362.77
399.73

4.3. Distribucin de valores extremos Tipo I. Gumbel.

P
Tr = u - Ln Ln

F (P)

u = P - 0.45 S =

Pr de > a <

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

S=

PT
205.29
183.20
170.15
160.81
153.49
147.46
142.30
137.79
133.77
130.13
126.81
123.74
120.88
118.20
115.68
113.29
111.01
108.84
106.76
104.75
102.82
100.95
99.13
97.36
95.64
93.96
92.31
90.69
89.09
87.52
85.97
84.44
82.92
81.41
79.90
78.40
76.90
75.40
73.89
72.36
70.82
69.27
67.68
66.06
64.40
62.69
60.92
59.07
57.12
55.05
52.82
50.37
47.61
44.38
40.32
34.40
S=

78.36

( P Tr - Pr ) 2
12346.23
181.43
309.82
428.04
320.15
199.26
101.82
61.45
36.93
34.00
66.51
34.53
45.53
23.64
7.17
3.93
0.08
36.14
53.56
34.57
25.76
14.20
3.81
22.13
8.89
1.68
3.64
0.08
1.70
0.73
0.02
0.10
3.35
1.39
0.06
0.49
0.00
0.10
1.59
4.92
14.11
0.11
0.47
3.02
11.55
26.09
47.33
76.19
53.07
67.65
86.99
138.69
211.33
206.84
43.25
156.08
15562.17

Tabla 7. Precipitacin con la distribucin Gumbel

mp= 2

E.E = 16.98

= 0.78 S =

31.46

T ( aos )

F(P)

PTr24 h

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

89.89
125.55
149.16
171.81
178.99
201.12
223.09
244.98
273.86
295.68
317.50
346.33

4.4. Distribucin de valores extremos Tipo I. Nash.

1
X = - Ln Ln

F( Q )

1
P Tr = u + X = u +

F( Q)
m

Pr de > a <

Pr X

X2

P T

( P Tr - Pr ) 2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

4.034
3.332
2.918
2.621
2.388
2.196
2.032
1.889
1.761
1.646
1.540
1.442
1.351
1.266
1.186
1.110
1.038
0.969
0.903
0.839
0.778
0.718
0.660
0.604
0.549
0.496
0.443
0.392
0.341
0.291
0.242
0.193
0.145
0.097
0.049
0.001
-0.046
-0.094
-0.142
-0.190
-0.239
-0.289
-0.339
-0.391
-0.443
-0.498
-0.554
-0.613
-0.675
-0.741
-0.812
-0.889
-0.977
-1.080
-1.209
-1.397
30.844

1276.43
565.54
445.07
367.20
323.82
292.84
268.70
245.47
224.88
204.54
182.71
169.99
154.24
143.53
134.04
123.58
114.95
99.63
89.77
82.96
76.00
69.78
64.17
55.98
50.90
45.94
40.08
35.43
30.85
25.26
20.85
16.39
12.29
7.78
3.92
0.12
-3.55
-7.12
-10.68
-14.21
-17.85
-19.92
-23.20
-26.49
-30.07
-33.75
-37.57
-41.56
-43.46
-46.86
-50.43
-55.27
-60.73
-63.46
-56.69
-65.51
5357.22

16.275
11.103
8.512
6.868
5.703
4.823
4.130
3.568
3.102
2.708
2.371
2.080
1.826
1.604
1.407
1.233
1.077
0.939
0.815
0.704
0.605
0.516
0.436
0.365
0.302
0.246
0.197
0.154
0.116
0.085
0.059
0.037
0.021
0.009
0.002
0.000
0.002
0.009
0.020
0.036
0.057
0.083
0.115
0.153
0.197
0.248
0.307
0.376
0.455
0.548
0.659
0.791
0.955
1.166
1.462
1.952
93.588

204.76
182.94
170.06
160.83
153.61
147.64
142.55
138.09
134.12
130.53
127.25
124.21
121.39
118.75
116.25
113.89
111.65
109.50
107.45
105.47
103.55
101.71
99.91
98.17
96.46
94.80
93.17
91.57
90.00
88.45
86.92
85.40
83.90
82.41
80.92
79.44
77.95
76.47
74.98
73.47
71.95
70.41
68.85
67.25
65.61
63.92
62.17
60.34
58.42
56.38
54.17
51.75
49.02
45.83
41.82
35.98

12462.65
174.71
306.60
429.00
324.20
204.57
106.93
66.33
41.37
38.82
73.89
40.37
52.72
29.24
10.59
6.70
0.83
44.52
64.08
43.43
33.76
20.48
7.46
30.32
14.47
4.58
7.68
1.37
0.16
3.15
0.66
0.42
0.73
4.73
1.57
0.11
1.24
0.57
0.03
1.23
6.91
2.20
0.23
0.31
4.80
15.06
31.71
55.61
35.88
47.67
63.66
108.13
172.27
167.19
25.75
119.23
15512.90

S=

Tabla 8. Precipitacin con la distribucin Nash

mp = 2

Los parmetros
respectivamente

E.E = 16.95

se determinan con los comandos de excel INTERSECCIN. EJE y PENDIENTE

u =

79.39

31.08

T ( aos )

F(P)

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

0.367
1.500
2.250
2.970
3.199
3.902
4.600
5.296
6.214
6.907
7.601
8.517

PTr24 h
90.78
126.01
149.33
171.70
178.79
200.65
222.35
243.97
272.49
294.05
315.60
344.08

4.5. DISTRIBUCIN NORMAL

= P =

p Tr = + U T

96.508

= S = 40.338

Cuando 0.50 F ( P ) < 1.0 , los valores de V se calculan con la siguiente expresin:

Ln
2
1 - F( P )

V =

Cuando F ( P ) < 0.5, los valores de V de la tabla anterior se calculan con la siguiente expresin y se le cambia
el signo a U T

V =

Ln

2
F( P )

UT = V -

b 0 = 2.515517

b 1 = 0.802853

b 4 = 0.189269

b 5 = 0.001308

1 + b3 V + b4 V2 + b5 V3

b 2 = 0.010328

Pr

UT

PT

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

2.844
2.588
2.427
2.305
2.206
2.122
2.048
1.982
1.921
1.866
1.814
1.765
1.719
1.676
1.634
1.594
1.556
1.518
1.482
1.447
1.413
1.380
1.347
1.315
1.284
1.253
1.222
1.192
1.192
1.222
1.253
1.284
1.315
1.347
1.380
1.413
1.447
1.482
1.518
1.556
1.594
1.634
1.676
1.719
1.765
1.814
1.866
1.921
1.982
2.048
2.122
2.206
2.305
2.427
2.588
2.844

2.108
1.811
1.620
1.475
1.355
1.252
1.161
1.079
1.003
0.933
0.867
0.804
0.745
0.688
0.633
0.580
0.529
0.479
0.430
0.383
0.336
0.289
0.244
0.199
0.154
0.110
0.066
0.022
-0.022
-0.066
-0.110
-0.154
-0.199
-0.244
-0.289
-0.336
-0.383
-0.430
-0.479
-0.529
-0.580
-0.633
-0.688
-0.745
-0.804
-0.867
-0.933
-1.003
-1.079
-1.161
-1.252
-1.355
-1.475
-1.620
-1.811
-2.108

181.53
169.57
161.86
156.00
151.17
147.02
143.35
140.02
136.97
134.14
131.47
128.96
126.56
124.26
122.05
119.92
117.85
115.83
113.87
111.94
110.05
108.18
106.35
104.53
102.73
100.94
99.16
97.39
95.62
93.85
92.07
90.29
88.49
86.67
84.83
82.97
81.08
79.15
77.18
75.17
73.10
70.96
68.75
66.46
64.06
61.54
58.88
56.04
52.99
49.67
45.99
41.84
37.02
31.15
23.45
11.48

S=

b 0 + b1 V + b 2 V 2

( P Tr - Pr ) 2
18189.51
0.03
86.74
252.08
242.49
187.20
124.03
101.47
86.15
96.73
164.44
123.14
154.47
119.34
81.98
74.21
50.54
169.09
208.08
170.63
151.30
121.06
84.00
140.86
101.37
68.58
76.81
48.90
27.29
51.57
35.62
30.67
13.97
41.49
26.71
14.98
17.96
11.84
4.15
0.34
2.20
4.13
0.15
1.80
13.99
39.15
79.55
138.19
130.36
185.25
261.02
412.33
631.57
762.17
549.71
1253.90
26217.29

Tabla 9. Precipitacin con la distribucin Normal

mp = 2

E.E = 22.03

b 3 = 1.432788

T ( aos )

F(P)

UT

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

1.177
1.794
2.146
2.448
2.537
2.797
3.035
3.255
3.526
3.717
3.899
4.127

0.0000
0.8415
1.2817
1.6452
1.7511
2.0542
2.3268
2.5762
2.8785
3.0905
3.2908
3.5402

PTr24 h
96.51
130.45
148.21
162.87
167.14
179.37
190.37
200.43
212.62
221.17
229.25
239.31

4.6. DISTRIBUCIN LOG - NORMAL 2

P Tr = e x p ( y + U T y )

y = Py = 4.508

y = S y = 0.335

Los valores de V y UT se determinan con las frmulas del modelo Normal

m

Pr

UT

P T

( P Tr - Pr ) 2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

2.844
2.588
2.427
2.305
2.206
2.122
2.048
1.982
1.921
1.866
1.814
1.765
1.719
1.676
1.634
1.594
1.556
1.518
1.482
1.447
1.413
1.380
1.347
1.315
1.284
1.253
1.222
1.192
1.192
1.222
1.253
1.284
1.315
1.347
1.380
1.413
1.447
1.482
1.518
1.556
1.594
1.634
1.676
1.719
1.765
1.814
1.866
1.921
1.982
2.048
2.122
2.206
2.305
2.427
2.588
2.844

2.108
1.811
1.620
1.475
1.355
1.252
1.161
1.079
1.003
0.933
0.867
0.804
0.745
0.688
0.633
0.580
0.529
0.479
0.430
0.383
0.336
0.289
0.244
0.199
0.154
0.110
0.066
0.022
-0.022
-0.066
-0.110
-0.154
-0.199
-0.244
-0.289
-0.336
-0.383
-0.430
-0.479
-0.529
-0.580
-0.633
-0.688
-0.745
-0.804
-0.867
-0.933
-1.003
-1.079
-1.161
-1.252
-1.355
-1.475
-1.620
-1.811
-2.108

184.00
166.58
156.25
148.82
142.97
138.12
133.96
130.31
127.05
124.09
121.37
118.86
116.52
114.31
112.24
110.26
108.38
106.58
104.85
103.18
101.57
100.01
98.50
97.02
95.58
94.17
92.79
91.43
90.10
88.78
87.48
86.19
84.91
83.64
82.37
81.11
79.84
78.57
77.30
76.01
74.72
73.40
72.07
70.70
69.31
67.87
66.39
64.84
63.22
61.50
59.65
57.62
55.36
52.72
49.45
44.77

17529.81
9.88
13.70
75.62
54.26
22.84
3.07
0.13
0.41
0.04
7.42
1.00
5.70
0.95
0.58
1.09
5.57
14.06
29.27
18.57
14.66
8.03
1.74
19.02
8.53
2.29
5.72
1.07
0.09
4.46
1.89
2.08
0.03
11.62
7.33
4.03
9.00
8.19
4.63
2.05
0.02
20.00
13.70
8.44
2.28
0.01
1.99
8.75
1.42
3.18
6.27
20.48
46.12
36.43
6.55
4.50
18090.55

S=

Tabla 10. Precipitacin con la distribucin Log-Normal 2

mp = 2

E.E = 18.30

T ( aos )

F(P)

UT

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

1.177
1.794
2.146
2.448
2.537
2.797
3.035
3.255
3.526
3.717
3.899
4.127

0.0000
0.8415
1.2817
1.6452
1.7511
2.0542
2.3268
2.5762
2.8785
3.0905
3.2908
3.5402

PTr24 h
90.76
120.35
139.49
157.57
163.26
180.72
198.02
215.29
238.25
255.80
273.57
297.43

4.7. Distribucin Gamma 2.

P Tr

1
= 1 + UT
9

P
=
S

S2
= 16.860
P

= 5.724

Los valores de V y UT se determinan con las frmulas del modelo Normal

Pr

UT

P T

( P Tr - Pr ) 2

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56

316.4
169.7
152.6
140.1
135.6
133.3
132.2
130.0
127.7
124.3
118.7
117.9
114.1
113.3
113.0
111.3
110.7
102.8
99.4
98.9
97.7
97.2
97.2
92.7
92.7
92.7
90.4
90.4
90.4
86.7
86.1
84.8
84.8
80.2
79.7
79.1
76.8
75.7
75.1
74.6
74.6
68.9
68.4
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
67.8
64.4
63.3
62.2
62.2
62.2
58.8
46.9
46.9
5404.5

2.844
2.588
2.427
2.305
2.206
2.122
2.048
1.982
1.921
1.866
1.814
1.765
1.719
1.676
1.634
1.594
1.556
1.518
1.482
1.447
1.413
1.380
1.347
1.315
1.284
1.253
1.222
1.192
1.192
1.222
1.253
1.284
1.315
1.347
1.380
1.413
1.447
1.482
1.518
1.556
1.594
1.634
1.676
1.719
1.765
1.814
1.866
1.921
1.982
2.048
2.122
2.206
2.305
2.427
2.588
2.844

2.108
1.811
1.620
1.475
1.355
1.252
1.161
1.079
1.003
0.933
0.867
0.804
0.745
0.688
0.633
0.580
0.529
0.479
0.430
0.383
0.336
0.289
0.244
0.199
0.154
0.110
0.066
0.022
-0.022
-0.066
-0.110
-0.154
-0.199
-0.244
-0.289
-0.336
-0.383
-0.430
-0.479
-0.529
-0.580
-0.633
-0.688
-0.745
-0.804
-0.867
-0.933
-1.003
-1.079
-1.161
-1.252
-1.355
-1.475
-1.620
-1.811
-2.108

199.68
180.88
169.42
161.02
154.33
148.72
143.87
139.58
135.71
132.18
128.93
125.90
123.06
120.38
117.84
115.42
113.10
110.87
108.73
106.65
104.64
102.69
100.79
98.93
97.11
95.33
93.57
91.85
90.15
88.47
86.80
85.15
83.50
81.86
80.23
78.59
76.95
75.31
73.65
71.98
70.29
68.58
66.83
65.05
63.23
61.35
59.40
57.37
55.24
52.98
50.55
47.91
44.94
41.51
37.27
31.28

13623.79
124.31
284.46
436.88
350.77
236.64
136.03
92.74
64.37
62.16
105.64
64.63
79.71
49.55
23.40
16.90
5.56
64.68
86.25
60.51
47.59
30.36
13.01
39.29
19.80
7.11
10.08
2.10
0.06
3.22
0.48
0.16
1.56
2.66
0.31
0.26
0.01
0.16
2.23
6.76
18.40
0.13
2.35
7.55
20.92
41.65
70.57
108.78
84.09
106.09
134.47
202.92
296.07
297.56
92.57
243.78
17884.11

S=

Tabla 11. Precipitacin con la distribucin Gamma 2

mp= 2

E.E = 18.20

T ( aos )

F(P)

UT

PTr24 h

2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

0.5000
0.8000
0.9000
0.9500
0.9600
0.9800
0.9900
0.9950
0.9980
0.9990
0.9995
0.9998

1.177
1.794
2.146
2.448
2.537
2.797
3.035
3.255
3.526
3.717
3.899
4.127

0.0000
0.8415
1.2817
1.6452
1.7511
2.0542
2.3268
2.5762
2.8785
3.0905
3.2908
3.5402

91.00
127.69
150.31
170.89
177.21
196.19
214.37
231.96
254.53
271.21
287.61
308.96

Resumen de la prueba del error estndar del ajuste

No
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Distribucin
Exponencial con b.
Exponencial con b y Xo.
Gumbel
Nash
Normal
Log Normal 2
Gamma 2

E.E.
51.34
15.13
16.98
16.95
22.03
18.30
18.20

Tabla 12. Resumen del error estndar

Exponencial
con b.
66.89
155.32
222.22
289.11
310.65
377.54
444.44
511.33
599.76
666.65
733.55
821.98

Tr ( aos )
2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

Exponencial
con b y Xo.
84.13
121.09
149.05
177.01
186.01
213.97
241.93
269.89
306.85
334.81
362.77
399.73

Gumbel

Nash

Normal

Log Normal 2

Gamma 2

89.89
125.55
149.16
171.81
178.99
201.12
223.09
244.98
273.86
295.68
317.50
346.33

90.78
126.01
149.33
171.70
178.79
200.65
222.35
243.97
272.49
294.05
315.60
344.08

96.51
130.45
148.21
162.87
167.14
179.37
190.37
200.43
212.62
221.17
229.25
239.31

90.76
120.35
139.49
157.57
163.26
180.72
198.02
215.29
238.25
255.80
273.57
297.43

91.00
127.69
150.31
170.89
177.21
196.19
214.37
231.96
254.53
271.21
287.61
308.96

Grfica de Funciones de Probabilidad

900.00
800.00

precipitacin (mm)

700.00
Exponencial con b.

600.00

Exponencial con b y Xo.

500.00

Gumbel

400.00

Nash

300.00

Normal

200.00

Log Normal 2

100.00

Gamma 2

0.00
0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Periodo de retorno Tr (aos)

La distribucin de mejor ajuste es: " Exponencial con b y Xo. "

Precipitacin de diseo con d = 24 h. Se aplicar el modelo Exponencial con b y Xo.
T ( aos )

F(P)

PTr24 h

2
0.5000
84.13
5
0.8000
121.09
10
0.9000
149.05
20
0.9500
177.01
25
0.9600
186.01
50
0.9800
213.97
100
0.9900
241.93
200
0.9950
269.89
500
0.9980
306.85
1000
0.9990
334.81
2000
0.9995
362.77
5000
0.9998
399.73
Tabla 13. Precipitacin de diseo con d = 24 h

5. Relacin entre la precipitacin de 1 y 24 horas:

Utilizando ecuacin de segundo grado (Conde 2014)

R=-0.000000009*ELEV^2+0.0002*ELEV+0.3073

832

ELEV=

R =

h
P21 aos
h
P224aos

0.467

Las precipitaciones con duracin d = 24 horas se obtienen de la tabla anterior

PTr1 h = R PTr24 h
Tr ( aos )
2
5
10
20
25
50
100
200
500
1000
2000
5000

P 24 h ( mm )
84.13
121.09
149.05
177.01
186.01
213.97
241.93
269.89
306.85
334.81
362.77
399.73

P 1 h ( mm )
39.33
56.61
69.68
82.75
86.96
100.03
113.10
126.17
143.44
156.52
169.59
186.86

Tabla 14. Precipitacin de diseo

6. Determinacin de las curvas I-D-Tr por el mtodo de Cheng Lung Chen y F. C. Bell

21 =

39.33

Precipitacin de una hora y dos aos de periodo de retorno

1
10
=

69.68

Precipitacin de una hora y diez aos de periodo de retorno

24
10
=

149.05

Precipitacin de 24 horas y diez aos de periodo de retorno

24
100
=

241.93

Precipitacin de 24 horas y cien aos de periodo de retorno

46.75

(Relacin de precipitaciones de 1h con respecto a la de 24 h)*100

= 100 =

Variables regionales

a=
b=
c=
F

Chen
28.152
8.757
0.789
1.623

= 0.000004166 (^4) + 0.00052777 (^3) 0.01625 (7^2) + 0.6662 () 1.5

= 0.0000027083 (^4) + 0.00041527 (^3) 0.02477 (^2) + 0.9551 () 11.25
= 0.00012 (^2) + 0.019 () + 0.1628
24
10

= 24
100

Bell

21 =

39.33

Precipitacin de una hora y

dos aos de periodo de retorno