Nama

Program Studi
Judul

ABSTRAK
: Harry Patria
: Ilmu Ekonomi
: Eksplorasi Minyak dan Gas Indonesia dengan Analisis
Geological and Economic Variables

Studi-studi model eksplorasi secara umum menjelaskan prilaku eksplorasi

dengan analisis variabel geologi dan ekonomi pada tingkat makro seperti wilayah,
provinsi dan negara. Pada kenyataannya, cadangan migas dan kedalaman sumur
masing-masing menentukan tingkat volume temuan dan biaya pengeboran yang
dijelaskan secara spesifik pada tingkat basin geologis. Penelitian ini fokus pada
tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi (wells drilled) dengan analisis analisis variabel
geologi dan ekonomi menggunakan 32 basin geologis di Indonesia dalam periode
2004-2014. Hasil estimasi model empiris menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengeboran
eksplorasi ditentukan oleh tingkat keberhasilan penemuan migas (lag of success
rate), volume temuan migas (lag of discovery size of oil and gas) dan lokasi basin
(region). Sedangkan variabel ekonomi yang menentukan tingkat pengeboran
eksplorasi terdiri dari harga minyak dunia (lag of oil price). Selain itu, deplesi
minyak berdampak signifikan menjelaskan tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi dengan
karakteristik basin Indonesia yang didominasi oleh mature oil fields.
Kata kunci:
eksplorasi, basin, wells drilled, geological and economic variables
ABSTRACT
By
: Harry Patria
Study Programme : Economics
Title
: Oil and Gas Exploration with Geological and Economic
Variables in Indonesia
Earlier studies of exploration models are generally characterized by
equations describing the behavior of exploration at the macro-level analysis such
as region, province or state-level. In reality, there is specific impact of geological
basin characteristics to wells drilleds decision. This study focuses on the
geological and economic factors that particularly determine the wells drilled
decision using an empirical model to analyze at the micro-level using
disaggregated panel data of 32 geological basins in Indonesia over the period
2004-2013. The empirical results show that the number of wells drilled are
determined significantly by lag of success rate, lag of discovery size of oil and gas
and region of geological basin. Then, it shows that a lag of global oil price
determined significantly the number of wells drilled, instead of a local oil price.
Finally, oil depletion effect also determined significantly the number of wells
drilled as the geological characteristic of geological basin dominated by mature
oil fields
Key words:
exploration, basin, geological and economic variables.
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DAFTAR ISI
HALAMAN JUDUL .............................................................................
HALAMAN PERNYATAAN ORISINALITAS ................................
HALAMAN PENGESAHAN ...............................................................
KATA PENGANTAR ...........................................................................
HALAMAN PERNYATAAN PERSETUJUAN PUBLIKASI..........
ABSTRAK .............................................................................................
DAFTAR ISI ..........................................................................................
DAFTAR TABEL .................................................................................
DAFTAR GAMBAR .............................................................................
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN .........................................................................
1. PENDAHULUAN ..............................................................................
1.1 Latar Belakang ............................................................................
1.2 Rumusan Penelitian .....................................................................
1.3 Tujuan Penelitian ........................................................................
1.4 Sistematika Penulisan ..................................................................
2. TINJAUAN LITERATUR ...............................................................
2.1 Kerangka Pemikiran ....................................................................
2.2 Model Eksplorasi Migas ..............................................................
2.3 Studi Sebelumnya ........................................................................
3. METODE PENELITIAN .................................................................
3.1 Rancangan Model ........................................................................
3.2 Jenis dan Sumber Data ................................................................
3.3 Model Regresi .............................................................................
3.4 Definisi Operasional Variabel Penelitian ...................................
4. ANALISA HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN ......................................
4.1 Analisa Model Eksplorasi Migas ...............................................
4.2 Analisa Geological Variables ......................
4.2.1 Analisa Discovery Size of Oil and Gas..
4.2.2 Analisa Depletion Effect.. ......................
4.2.3 Analisa Success Rate.. ...........................
4.2.4 Analisa Region dan Offshore.. ...............
4.3 Analisa Economic Variables ...........................................
5. KESIMPULAN DAN IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN .......................
5.1 Kesimpulan .................................................................................
5.2 Implikasi Kebijakan ...................................................................
DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...........................................................................
LAMPIRAN ..........................................................................................

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DAFTAR TABEL
Tabel 3.1 Deskripsi data geologi dan ekonomi migas Indonesia
2004-2013.............................................................................
Tabel 3.2 Deskripsi statistik data geologi dan ekonomi eksplorasi
migas Indonesia 2004-2013 .................................................
Tabel 4.1 Hasil estimasi model empiris wells drilled ..........................

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DAFTAR GAMBAR
Gambar 1.1 Ultimate recovery factor minyak dan gas bumi per basin
dan prospected location di Indonesia ................................
Gambar 2.1 Kerangka pemikiran penelitian. .........................................
Gambar 3.1 Profil data tingkat pengeboran eksplorasi (wells drilled) ..
Gambar 4.1 Distribusi data wells drilled pada Wilayah Indonesia
Barat (West Prones) dan Wilayah Indonesia Timur
(East Prones). ....................................................................
Gambar 4.2 Nominal expenditures untuk development dan
exploration Production Sharing Contractors (PSC) di
Indonesia ............................................................................

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DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1.
Lampiran 2.
Lampiran 3.
Lampiran 4.
Lampiran 5.
Lampiran 6.

Rangkuman Model Empiris Eksplorasi Migas ....................

Distribusi Data Geologi dan Keekonomian .........................
Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Barat ..............................
Peta Geologis Wilayah Indonesia Timur .............................
Profil Basin Geologis di Indonesia ......................................
Hasil Estimasi Dengan Incident Rate Ratio .........................

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