ROLES FOR THE MILITARY IN THE

TWENTY FIRST CENTURY:

THE AUSTRALIAN PERSPECTIVE
INTRODUCTION
1.
It is a truism to say that the end of the Cold War has resulted in a more uncertain
and complex strategic environment. Events since the end of the Cold War confirm that
armed conflict remains a defining feature of the international landscape, although the
nature of conflict or the threats may change. Religious and ethnic tensions have erupted
into conflict, and threats from non-state actors that were previously less influential in
the militarys planning, such as terrorist and criminal organisations, pose greater
challenges to the modern state. While modern military forces stress the benefits of
precision and lethality matched to the target, proliferation of weapons of mass
destruction threatens states on a mass and indiscriminate scale. These factors will
challenge the ability of the military to respond appropriately in the twenty first century.
2.
Although no one can predict the future, military leaders must plan for a range of
eventualities that could occur in the next century. Military forces will continue to be a
hedge against perhaps unlikely but potentially serious threats to national survival, while
contributing to the promotion of national security through their ongoing operations.
They will be called upon to support the civil authorities and community in operations
short of war, relying on their unique characteristics of organisation, responsiveness and
range of capabilities. The challenge is to determine the weight that should be accorded
to these functions. In a democratic society this decision will be determined in large part
by governments acting on behalf of the people, who increasingly expect that military
capabilities will be used pro-actively to contribute to securing a brighter future and to
support the civil authorities in a range of non-warfighting tasks.
3.
The future roles of the military should be clarified so that key issues for defence
forces can be examined and suitable plans made. Such issues include the emphasis to
be applied to various threats, the command structure, type of equipment, and personnel
implications like recruitment and training of suitable people. A military organisation
that fails to carry out adequate long-term planning risks defeat or irrelevance.
4.
This paper sets out the future roles of the military in the twenty first century
from an Australian perspective. While there will be differences in emphasis between
the different roles in various nations, depending on their individual circumstances, most
of the considerations discussed in this paper will be relevant.

NATIONAL SECURITY AND MILITARY POWER

5.
A nation seeks to ensure its security through the use of its national power.
Instruments of national power include political, economic, military, psychological and
cultural elements. However, the concept of national security varies between different
countries.
6.
The roles of the military in a particular nation should relate to its concept of
national security. For the purpose of this paper, national security may be defined as the
use of elements of national power to create a stable and friendly environment in which a
country and its citizens can prosper. Implicit in this definition is the ability to influence
or shape the environment. In this regard Apple Computers philosophy that the best
way to predict the future is to invent it is instructive.
7.
While military power is an important component of national security, it should
be used in a synergistic way with the other elements of national power. In most cases
success relies on the employment and coordination of all elements of national power,
although they may contribute to different degrees to various national goals. Even in
conflict, military operations should be closely coordinated with diplomatic and
economic measures.
8.
Military power is sometimes regarded as an insurance policy for the state. Like
insurance, states hope never to have to use it, but it reduces the consequences of future
uncertainties. Like insurance, the utility of military power is not a function of its
frequency of use. However, unlike most insurance policies, the precise nature of the
threat cannot be defined in advance, military capabilities must be developed over very
long lead times and can be quickly outdated by technological advances, and the failure
of military power could imperil survival of the state.
9.
The view of military forces as an insurance policy relates to their fundamental
role of preserving the state. While this will remain a valid role, the insurance view does
not acknowledge the pro-active role of the military in promoting national security. This
involves military forces responding to opportunities to favourably shape the future, for
example, by taking early action to forestall a developing threat. Other activities short of
war, for example, strengthening relationships with regional neighbours, can reduce the
possibility of conflict arising or, if it does, increase the chances of success.
10.
Military power is both situational and relative: situational in that different
elements may not be applicable to some situations, and relative in that power is
measured relative to potential adversaries. Of course, no country can afford to do
everything, everywhere. Areas where risks can be managed must be identified and
forces structured accordingly. The nature of future conflict is an important
consideration in assessing these risks.
THE NATURE OF FUTURE CONFLICT

11.
The end of the Cold War has made global war less likely. However, it has also
removed some of the constraints that were formerly applied to regional conflicts by the
super powers. The international market provides ready access to advanced weapons,
and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction nuclear, chemical and biological
and the technology to deliver them, including missiles, aircraft and unconventional
methods, remain real concerns.
12.
Although the frequency of inter-state wars involving developed nations has
declined, it would be premature to forecast an end to this type of conflict. The failure to
predict wars in the past, even over a relatively short period of time, suggests that
military leaders must consider the less likely, but potentially very serious threats that
could arise in the future.
13.
Military conflict between states, or groups of states, is likely to be limited, in
terms of its duration, geographic confines, weapons, number of combatants and lack of
threat to national survival. While all wars should have a political aim, future conflicts
are likely to involve more limited political aims than, for example, the overthrow of a
state or the conquest of large parts of its territory. Military, economic and political
measures will be exercised in a concerted manner. Limited political objectives will
dictate more limited military action, although the desire of a state to perhaps escalate the
conflict to a level at which it can enjoy a comparative advantage should not be
discounted.
14.
Limited military action does not mean that wars will not be bloody affairs.
Indeed, such conflict could involve a high tempo of parallel action by overwhelming
military force to quickly destroy a states ability or willingness to resist. However,
military operations will increasingly be subject to the constraints of international law, a
global press and public opinion. The emphasis will be on limiting the duration,
casualties, both to own forces and civilians, damage and costs. Targets will largely be
confined to military platforms and facilities that can be attacked in a discriminate
manner.
15.
Technology will provide the means for some military forces to enjoy a
knowledge edge over their adversaries. The edge will involve knowing what is
happening, for what reason, and what to strike, where, with what, how and when to
achieve the desired effect, and to do this faster than the adversary. This will enable
military forces to win decisively, provided they also have the necessary capabilities,
including weapons, to realise their advantage.
16.
While inter-state wars are likely to be limited affairs, intra-state conflict could be
prolonged, widespread, indiscriminate and threaten states survival. Such conflict could
include civil wars or the collapse of law and order in a failed state. The ready
availability of weapons will fuel such conflict, although the more sophisticated
precision weapons are likely to be beyond the reach of the protagonists.

17.
A third area of conflict arises from threats to states and their interests from
unconventional or low-level threats. These threats could include, for example, attacks
on resources, the population, military forces and civil government, and could occur with
little warning. Such threats could be state-sponsored or arise from the activities of nonstate actors, particularly terrorist and criminal organisations. These organisations will
cover a large range, from international terrorist groups to transnational crime gangs, to
local fringe ideology groups.

18.
Technology will provide increasingly sophisticated weapons to these groups,
while the availability of global information and communications will also facilitate
terrorist and crime activities. In the twenty first century, conventional weapons, such as
bombs, nuclear devices, biological and chemical weapons, and information warfare (or
cyberterrorism) could be used. Indiscriminate attacks on populations could provide
the effect on the public sought by terrorist organisations.
19.
Few states will be able to shield their military activities from the scrutiny of the
world press, empowered by global communications. For democratic states, the CNN
factor will be a powerful shaping agent of international and domestic opinion,
providing impetus to complete military action quickly with few casualties. Non-state
actors may enjoy the advantage of covert action that may not be able to be traced to
them.
FACTORS INFLUENCING THE ROLES OF THE MILITARY
20.
There are a range of factors that can influence the roles of the military. Some
factors may be obvious and temporary, for example, an overt threat to a nation will
focus the military on defeating that threat. Other factors may exert influence over a
longer period, for example, the changing relationship of the United States with other
major powers is a strong influence on the strategic environment. Other factors are even
more enduring; for example, a country with long, porous land borders will face different
problems from an island nation. The economic strength of a country determines the
resources that can be devoted to its military forces, although there can be wide
variations in the proportion of their national wealth that different countries are prepared
to provide for their defence, and at different times.
21.
Other factors that influence the roles of the military include the stage of
development of a state and technology. A mature state confident of its national integrity
and widely engaged with other nations may attach more importance to military
operations designed to favourably shape the international area than a relatively new
state concerned with its survival. Higher levels of technology also provide military
forces with more options for their employment. For example, air-to-air refuelling
extends their capacity to respond quickly to distant contingencies.

22.
The roles of the military will also be influenced by the size and characteristics of
the countrys population. A country with a small population cannot indefinitely sustain
permanent military forces that are large by world standards without serious detriment to
its economy. While technology, in the form of advanced military equipment, can help a
small force to achieve results disproportionate to its size, an educated, technologically
competent population is normally required to provide suitable people to operate and
maintain the equipment. These characteristics are also necessary in the civilian
population, since a small force will rely on the national support base to help maintain,
adapt and update its capabilities.
23.
The values and desires of the civilian population will also be reflected in the
military, imposing constraints on what are acceptable practices and policies. Moreover,
they will tend to be reflected in each nations approach to warfare. Some of the
differences in the approach to warfare may be small; for example, in a society where
respect for authority and group cohesion is a prominent characteristic, attempts to
encourage an individual and innovative approach among lower ranks may be difficult.
History will also play a part in shaping the views of both the population and the defence
organisation of suitable roles for military forces, and the way of waging war.
24.
Australias case illustrates the influence of geostrategic factors. Australias
geostrategic situation to a large extent determines the way in which military power
could threaten Australias security. As an island continent on the edge of Asia, key
factors are the long distances from all but Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, the
absence of land borders, the huge area of the land mass and Exclusive Economic Zone
(EEZ), long coast-line, and the harshness of the northern areas. In terms of this
geography, any adversary would confront a large moat, but this advantage is offset for
the Australian Defence Force by the distances involved, requiring adaptable, versatile
forces with long reach.
25.
Australia also has a relatively small economy by world standards, ample natural
resources, and a small but well-educated population. Australias population could not
support numerically large defence forces for an indefinite period without a substantial
and unlikely change to national economic priorities.
26.
The Australian way of warfare is also influenced by the history of Australias
involvement in foreign wars. The characteristics of initiative, innovation and bravery
displayed by the ANZACs at Gallipoli have become entrenched in the Australian
psyche.
FUTURE ROLES OF MILITARY FORCES

27.
The overarching role of military forces is to provide military capabilities to
contribute to the creation and preservation of national security. However, the dilemma
for security planners is that the strategic environment and potential threats in the twenty
first century cannot be predicted with any certainty. The more precise the prediction,
the more useful to the planner, but the more likely it is to be wrong. Simple trend
analysis and extrapolation from the present is unlikely to provide a good basis for
planning for the future force. As military capabilities, including trained staff, take
increasingly longer periods to bring into service, it is necessary to look further out into
the future to assess their suitability, but the further into the future the greater the zone of
error in the assessment.
28.
Despite the lack of certainty in the future, the future roles of military forces are
clear; what is less clear is the emphasis that should be placed on each role. The
emphasis will vary, depending on the circumstances of different countries at different
times. In the absence of an obvious and compelling threat to national security, the
military will be placed under increased pressure to explain and justify its roles and the
resources it consumes.
29.
For most countries there is currently no immediate external threat to their
survival, nor can such a threat be identified with any clarity and certainty in the future.
Although the emergence of a major threat could be envisaged in certain circumstances,
pro-active measures by military forces could reduce or remove the possibility of the
threat eventuating. In the absence of a recognised major threat, the challenge is to
reconcile the need to hedge against a serious threat to national survival eventuating in
the future, with preparing forces to respond to and shape the environment in the shorter
term, and carry out other tasks.
30.
Modern military forces will focus on the following roles in the twenty first
century:
a.

hedging against the more substantial levels of conflict that could

accompany a major threat to the nation;

b.

providing military forces to participate in a wide range of warfighting

and non-warfighting activities designed to promote security, by
responding to shorter-term contingencies and shaping the strategic
environment; and

c.

support of the civil population and civil authorities, including nationbuilding, humanitarian and constabulary tasks.

Hedging Against Major Threats to the Nation

31.
The fundamental role of a nations military forces is to deter or defeat armed
aggression against the homeland. While minor attacks by an adversary could perhaps
have major repercussions in the country under attack, its survival will normally only be
threatened by a major attack. If the risk of serious internal threats is low, a focus for the
military will be the development of military capabilities, in terms of equipment,
personnel and support, that are sufficient to deter or defeat an external threat.

32.
Recognition by national leaders and the public of an actual or potential major
threat to a nation will normally provide the impetus for additional resources to be
devoted to its defence. However, an adversary is likely to avoid providing clear
indication of his intentions for as long as possible. Moreover, some situations can
escalate rapidly, even though the underlying issues may not warrant such action. For
these reasons, most nations devote considerable effort to determining how to defend the
country.
33.
Without an identified external threat, determination of a suitable force structure
with constrained resources can be difficult. Different approaches can be taken to deal
with this problem, which becomes ever more difficult the further military planners must
look into the future. For example, the force structure could be based upon maintaining a
comparative advantage in key military capabilities. Alternatively, the structure could be
based upon the probable tasks that the military would have to accomplish to defeat an
adversary, given the geographic situation. A third option would be to base the force
structure on military capabilities complementary to those of allies whose assistance in a
contingency could be relied upon. Where a possible adversary was particularly strong in
some areas of military capability, a weaker nation could respond by developing
asymmetric capabilities to deter or defeat any attack. The force structure could also be
constructed on the basis of two or more of these approaches.
34.
The development of military capabilities to deter or defeat an external threat to
the homeland provides the basis for the use of military forces in other roles. Moreover,
a defence force with credible capabilities for this role has an important shaping effect,
by underlining national independence and the willingness to protect national
sovereignty. Development of military capabilities also imposes a qualitative and
quantitative hurdle for any potential adversary to overcome. Intelligence may provide
timely warning of a potential adversarys development of sufficient capability to present
a major threat, and thus allow a nations military forces to be expanded and readied to
meet an emerging threat. Planning for the expansion of military forces to meet major
threats to the homeland is a major task for most defence forces.
35.
Given the march of military technology, and the difficulty of predicting which
technologies will be most useful and critical in the twenty first century, military leaders
may choose to adopt an incremental approach to force structure, rather than seeking to
create the optimum future force. The concept of one optimum set of military
capabilities for the future is flawed, as even with the benefit of perfect prediction the
optimum set will continually change. An incremental approach could involve
acceptance of a differentiated force structure that permits capabilities to be
progressively upgraded to meet the needs of shorter-term tasks. Such a structure could
incorporate a small number of leading edge military capabilities with a range of less
capable units, matched to the envisaged tasks. An important advantage of the
incremental approach is that it would allow scope for military leaders to evaluate and
pursue new ways of warfighting as military technology and the strategic environment
change.
Promoting Security

36.
The promotion of national security will be an important role for military forces
in the twenty first century. The aim will be to forestall development of a direct threat to
the homeland, and to increase the likelihood that any such attack would fail.
Additionally, military forces could act to defend important national interests, for
example, to protect trade. In an increasingly inter-dependent world linked by global
communications, most nations are likely to have a wide range of interests to be
protected and advanced.
37.
For almost all nations, the role of promoting security through military conflict
could only be carried out in coalition with other countries military forces. An
important benefit of participating in such coalitions will be the development and
enhancement of alliances and other relationships, together with the practical steps, like
building interoperability, to give effect to such relationships. Different issues may cause
different coalitions of nations to coalesce on the basis of shared interests. Building and
maintaining effective military coalitions in the face of a determined and sophisticated
adversary, who uses all the elements of national power at his disposal, will be difficult.
The difficulty will be exacerbated where the coalition is not led by a major power.
Tasks involved in this role could vary enormously, depending on the circumstances of
the country, and the regional and broader global environment.
38.
This role could encompass high level conventional war to compel a state to take
or cease certain actions, to very limited and selected military strikes, to a range of
operations other than war. There are likely to be less clear divisions between these tasks
in the future: peacekeeping forces may have to be prepared to carry out peacemaking, a
blockade of shipping could erupt into war, and evacuation of nationals from a foreign
country in turmoil could be accompanied by armed conflict. In some cases the political
objectives and even the adversary may not be clear, and the military may have to play
its part in a complex and demanding environment embracing other government, nongovernment and international organisations.
39.
While military forces will need to be prepared to engage in armed conflict for
this role, there will be many more opportunities to promote security through peaceful
means. Such means includes contributions to overseas humanitarian operations, visits
by military forces, exchange programs, shared training and exercise opportunities,
combined policing of maritime areas, international rescue operations, and common or
cooperative force development.
40.
This role will be distinguished by the need to maintain suitable military
capabilities at high levels of preparedness to respond to often short notice opportunities
to contribute to shaping the future environment. While the primary role of defending
the homeland involves developing military capabilities for use in and around the
country, those capabilities prepared for promoting security will focus on operations
further afield, with the attendant problems of deployment, sustainment and
redeployment. Because of the latter problems, forces prepared to respond to the more
demanding and distant warfighting tasks involved in promoting security are unlikely to
be large.
Support to Civil Population and Civil Authorities

41.
The role of providing support to the civil population and civil authorities will
continue to be important in the twenty first century, but is unlikely to provide strong
justification for costly and sophisticated military capabilities. It is likely that military
forces will continue to be required to use the military capabilities developed to defend
the homeland and promote national security to support the civil population and civil
authorities. Traditionally, the unique features of military forces organisation, a broad
skills base, a ready and disciplined workforce, a capacity to deploy and sustain assets
for a period, and responsiveness to government has resulted in them being the resort
of first choice in responding to crisis or emergency situations. This is unlikely to
change, although the capacity of most military forces to provide an adequate and
comprehensive response to some demanding situations may decline as the size of the
forces reduces.
42.
The importance of this role will vary according to the stage of development of
the nation. Where government services do not exist or are under-developed, military
forces may be called upon to play a leading role in law and order, to provide essential
services, build infrastructure and act as a unifying influence for the population. These
tasks can be characterised as nation building.
43.
The nation building role of the armed forces will become less significant as a
nation in terms of its sense of unity, government and civil institutions, and
infrastructure reaches a more developed status. An increasingly sophisticated political
leadership and population will influence the armed forces to play a more limited role in
nation building. Military forces are also likely to be seen as less relevant to nation
building tasks when other more specialised, perhaps less costly alternatives police for
the law and order role, for example are available.
44.
Although the requirement for military forces to carry out nation building tasks is
likely to reduce over time, the future will bring the challenge of dealing with the
increasingly sophisticated threats posed by terrorist and criminal gangs. Some of these
groups are likely to have access to advanced communications, weapons and
intelligence, reducing the effectiveness of civil authorities in combating them.
Particular difficulties will be posed by the threat of chemical or biological weapons. In
these cases military forces will be relied upon to provide specialist support. Although
these tasks may not require the full range of military capabilities, some will be
particularly relevant. For example, special forces will continue to be called upon to deal
with the more demanding terrorist situations.
45.
As terrorist, criminal and other organisations become more sophisticated and
inter-linked, military forces will have to work closely with other government bodies in a
whole-of-government approach to deal with the threats posed by them. Some
organisations could also diversify their activities. For example, separatist movements
could fund their military operations through criminal activities, including drug
smuggling. The division of responsibilities and coordination of military operations with
those of the civil authorities will pose difficulties in such cases.

46.
At a lower level, military forces will continue to provide support to civil
authorities where it is sensible to do so. For example, military forces may patrol a
nations EEZ, respond to incursions of sovereign territory, and compile mapping and
other geographic information for the country. In these cases military capabilities may
be well suited to the tasks, and their duplication by civil authorities would not be costeffective. However, the responsibility will increasingly shift to civil authorities and the
military will simply provide its services.
CHARACTERISTICS OF MILITARY FORCES
47.
Given the likely roles of military forces in the twenty first century, some
conclusions can be drawn regarding their characteristics. Modern military forces will
continue to be distinctly different from other government institutions, but they will work
closely with them. Societal trends, including peoples expectation of the military, will
influence the character of military forces.
48.
Military forces able to carry out all three roles will be smaller, professional
forces with the capacity to react quickly and effectively. Their military capabilities will
be selected to provide flexible and versatile options for government, covering a wide
range of circumstances in a cost-effective manner. The forces will be used in joint
operations where the synergies of environmental capabilities can be exploited, and
supported by command and control, intelligence and surveillance systems that enable
them to dictate the terms of a conflict.
49.
In view of the steadily increasing cost of modern military capabilities, and the
probability of heavily constrained resources, only the US is likely to be able to afford a
balanced, conventional force. Other nations will accept gaps in force structure to build
credible capabilities that are most useful and critical. The risks involved in this type of
force structure will need to be assessed, but the decision will be where, not if, the risks
can be accepted.
50.
Weapon systems will become increasingly complex, versatile and costly.
Precision will be a feature of such systems, which will rely on accurate and timely
operational and technical intelligence for their effectiveness. International law, and the
effect of the global press and global communications on domestic and international
opinion, will exert increasing pressure to take military action that is clean and quick and
minimises casualties. Precision will allow military forces to apply discriminate and
proportional force where the situation requires this response.
51.
Not all tasks will require highly sophisticated military capabilities. For example,
peacekeeping, peacemaking and the restoration of law and order in foreign countries are
unlikely to involve high levels of conventional conflict, although some higher-order
capabilities will undoubtedly be useful. Forces for these tasks could be drawn from
those prepared for high level conflict, or less capable units identified for these roles in a
differentiated force structure.

52.
Where military forces are called in to assist civil authorities to respond to an
internal crisis, the legal boundaries of the military response will be clearly delineated.
Civil authorities will retain the responsibility for the broad direction of the military
response, which will be limited in most cases to specialist support. Where the scale of
internal threats is beyond the capacity of civil authorities, less sophisticated (perhaps
reserve) forces could be used to restore law and order. However, the focus will be on
ceasing such military action as soon as possible. Conversely, there will be closer
coordination and cooperation between civil authorities and the military to deal with the
more sophisticated terrorist and criminal threats.
53.
Military personnel will serve in a much more challenging environment. They
will have to be better educated and trained to play their part in providing more complex
and capable military forces. Authority, responsibility and accountability will be passed
to lower levels. They will increasingly work in small teams, empowered by a rapidly
disseminated intelligence picture and powerful weapons to make timely decisions that
could have strategic ramifications. They will have to be well trained in and able to
apply international law quickly in practical situations, before deciding whether and how
military force should be applied. They will be required to interact effectively with civil
authorities, non-governmental organisations, the press and a civil population that is well
aware of its rights. At higher levels of conflict they will confront the challenge of
working in ad hoc coalitions of military forces that may come from different cultures,
speak different languages and have different doctrine and organisation.
54.
Resource pressures will result in military forces relying increasingly on civil
contractors for support of all but direct combat activities. Military commanders will
need to ensure that the necessary support is available when and where it is required, and
that it is available for the duration of the operation at an acceptable cost. Support of
deployed forces, especially overseas, will be a particular concern. Military forces will
require personnel with the business skills necessary to ensure that commercial support is
reliable, effective and efficient.
THE PLANNING IMPERATIVE
55.
The roles and characteristics of military forces in the twenty first century
provide the framework for the challenge facing military planners and, ultimately, the
military leadership. The challenge is to manage change in order to maintain and
develop new military capabilities that meet the current and future needs of the country.
These capabilities must be developed, maintained and practised in peacetime so that the
transition to conflict is smooth and effective. Governments and citizens will ultimately
need to be involved in making choices regarding the size and shape of their military
forces.
56.
Choices will need to be made because resources will continue to be constrained
unless the survival of a nation is seriously threatened. Military planners will need to
determine the weight that should be given to the different roles of military forces, as a
basis for building force structure. These priorities will need to be continuously
reviewed as the strategic environment changes, and other factors, like technology, offer
new ways to carry out tasks.

57.
Military planners will also have to consider how to maintain a war-winning edge
in selected areas. They will also need to ensure that platforms with a long life can be
modified to preserve their usefulness, and meet new threats. A mass of other issues,
including command and control, logistic support, and acquisition arrangements will
compete for the attention of the military leadership.
58.
A major concern will be the need to attract, train and retain sufficient numbers of
personnel who are suitable to play their part in modern military forces. Military
personnel will be better educated and trained, and have more responsibility, but will
need to be better rewarded if the lure of other employment is to be resisted. The
military leadership will also have to consider societal trends, as the defence force will to
a large extent mirror society at large.
59.
Perhaps the major challenge for military forces in the twenty first century will be
to develop military leaders and planners who can manage the inevitable change
successfully. Senior military leaders will have to be politically sophisticated, without
compromising their integrity. They will have to understand the motivations, constraints
and processes involved in political decisions and in the bureaucracy, and be able to
demonstrate the continuing relevance of military forces to gain the resources necessary
to provide adequate military capabilities. Military forces that fail to confront the major
issues and choices in managing change will not succeed in their roles.
CONCLUSION
60.
The nature of conflict will change in the twenty first century. While the future
cannot be predicted with certainty, it is likely that conventional warfare between states
will be more limited in terms of both the political aims of the adversaries and the nature
and duration of the conflict. Military action that is both proportional and discriminate
will be necessary, and global scrutiny will reinforce this need. Intra-state conflict, on
the other hand, may be extended, indiscriminate and threaten national survival in some
cases.
61.
Three broad roles for the military are envisaged: hedging against major threats,
promoting security, and supporting the civil population and civil authorities. Hedging
against major threats requires the development of military capabilities suitable to ensure
national survival in the face of a major threat. In the absence of such a threat, the full
suite of capabilities necessary for this role may not be developed in a nations standing
forces. Nevertheless, planning for this role will continue to be a fundamental concern
for military planners.
62.
Promoting security involves military operations to forestall development of a
major threat to a nation and to increase the likelihood that any such attack would fail,
and protection of other important national interests. This role involves both warfighting
operations and operations other than war. By taking appropriate action, normally in
concert with other like-minded nations, the future can be shaped to avoid detrimental
outcomes. Given the difficulty in predicting the future, more emphasis may be placed
on promoting security through a continuing program of pro-active measures. This role
requires suitable military capabilities at high levels of preparedness to respond to often
short notice contingencies.

63.
While military forces will continue to support civil populations and civil
authorities in the twenty first century, this role will not provide justification for costly
and sophisticated military capabilities. Nation building tasks will continue to be
important to military forces where civil society, its institutions and processes are underdeveloped. As these develop, the importance of this role will reduce for the military,
which will increasingly support civil efforts only where military capabilities can
usefully and efficiently extend civil capacities. However, military capabilities will
continue to be required to deal with the more sophisticated threats posed by some
terrorist and criminal groups equipped with modern weapons.
64.
The characteristics of modern military forces will continue to change in the
twenty first century. Smaller, professional forces equipped with increasingly complex,
versatile and costly weapons systems will be the choice of developed countries.
Precision will be a feature of such systems, which will rely on accurate and timely
operational and technical intelligence for their effectiveness. These requirements will
challenge military personnel, who will have to be better educated and trained to carry
out their duties.
65.
The major challenge for military leaders is to maintain and develop new military
capabilities that meet the current and future needs of the country. The impact of
technology, societal expectations, and the strategic environment are examples of factors
that will need to be continually reviewed to determine how change can be managed. In
particular, military planners will need to consider the weight that should be accorded to
the three roles of the military, as the basis for considering forcestructure options
72.
.