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WORLD AFFAIRS
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
1.

In July 2015, P5+ Germany announced a long-term, comprehensive nuclear agreement with Iran.

2.

Under the deal Iran will have to do the following in next 15 years
a.

Reduce number of centrifuges from 20,000 to about 6,000. Centrifuges are used to enrich uranium.

b.

Uranium can be enriched to only to 3.67%. That too this can only be used for generating electricity.

c.

Reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium from 10,000 kg to 300 kg.

d.

Allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to inspect its nuclear sites, uranium
mines and mills, centrifuge factories.

e.

Nuclear facility at Natanz will be as a physics laboratory and not for enriching Uranium.

3.

In return, US and EU will suspend the sanctions after IAEA verifies that all the above steps have been
taken

4.

Why entered a.

By US/world powers/significance i.

It will stop Iran from possessing nuclear arms. According to Obama, it was the best way of
limiting Iran's nuclear ambitions.

ii.

Military action wasn't either possible (due to USE weariness in Afghanistan), nor desirable.

iii. Stability in Iraq and Afghanistan (the 2 neighbours of Iran) is of vital importance to US as well
Iran. The rise of the Islamic State (IS) has brought about a significant change in the geopolitical
situation in West Asia.
iv.

Now the world can shift the focus to North-Korean (after Cuba and Iran, US should focus on
NK)

v.

Western Europe is looking for alternative gas supplies to lessen its dependence o Russia.

vi. Iran, already a key player in the region is likely to emerge stronger. Iran already has enhanced
influence in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq and, most recently, Yemen.
b.

By Iran i.

Sanctions have crippled all sectors of its economy. Its oil exports have drastically reduced. It
will also bring more investment.

ii.

It would end Iran's isolation from the world.

iii. President Hassan Rouhani, a relative moderate was elected 2 years ago on promise to reduce
Iran's isolation.
iv.
5.

It will "encourages" international cooperation to aid Iran's civil nuclear R&D.

Challenges a.

However this doesn't means that this will resolve all the disputes as we are seeing recently in Yemen
and Syria where Iran and Saudi along with US are on the opposite sides.

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6.

Implications for India a.

In the past, bilateral trade especially. In oil could not be expanded due to problems of transaction
through foreign banks; US pressure, but not anymore.
i.

The further decline in oil prices that is likely to follow the agreement will be a huge financial
boon for India, which imports most of its hydrocarbons. Some are speculating that oil could
hit as low as $20 a barrel once the West eases sanctions on Iran's petroleum sector and Tehran
ramps up production in the coming months and years.

ii.

The Iran nuclear deal has clearly opened up huge opportunities for the two countries to enhance
their bilateral trade including in sectors like food items, pharmaceuticals, gems and jewellery,
auto components, textiles and medical equipment.

iii. The lifting of sanctions on Iran will help in expediting work on the chabhar port
b.

This will further improve the Indo-US relations as indo-ran relations were seen negatively by US.

c.

it might open up opportunities for India and the US to work together with Iran on issues of common
interest.

Way forward The Iranian Ambassador to India, Gholamreza Ansari, recently said that India should seize on the opportunity
and take advantage of its presence. At the sidelines of Ufa summit Iran invited Indian investments of about
US$ 8 billion in its infrastructure projects. So India should do the same. India must now prepare to deal with
a rebalanced middle east, a region that has not received adequate attention in recent past. A prime ministerial
visit to the region, long overdue, will help. Delhi needs to take a fresh strategic look at the region.

BOKO HARAM
1.

Much of the world learned of the Boko Haram terrorist group after they kidnapped 276 school girls from
their dormitory in the town of Chibok in 2014, but for years its steadily worsening attacks have been
wracking parts of the country.

2.

Meaning of 'Boko Haram'

3.

4.

a.

The most commonly accepted translation of the name, a phrase in the indigenous lingua franca
Hausa, is: "Western education is forbidden". It could have a wider meaning though, since "boko" may
also signify "Western fraud" or similar interpretations.

b.

The group has since said it wants to be known by a phrase that translates to "People Committed to
the Prophet's Teachings for Propagation and Jihad".

Boko Haram must be understood in the context of Nigeria's current conditions:

a.

it is Africa's most populous nation, largest economy and biggest oil producer, but astounding levels
of corruption have left it without basic development and infrastructure.

b.

Disparities between the country's north, which is mainly Muslim, and its south, which is mostly
Christian, are also important in understanding the conflict.

c.

Today much of the north badly trails the south in terms of education and wealth due to a complex
list of historical, cultural and other factors.

2003 beginnings
a.

The group now known as Boko Haram began to emerge in 2003, when a collection of like-minded
Islamists retreated to a remote area of the northeast called Kanamma. Here they violently clashed
with authorities.

b.

They had been followers of a young, charismatic preacher named Mohammed Yusuf. He had a strict,
fundamentalist interpretation of the Qur'an and believed that the creation of Nigeria by British
colonialists had imposed a Western and un-Islamic way of life on Muslims.

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c.
5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

It is unclear whether Yusuf played any direct role in the violence in 2003 and early 2004. He later
denied it, saying the youths involved had simply studied the Qur'an with him.

A five-day uprising and crackdown

a.

Authorities from a task force known as Operation Flush II in Maiduguri confronted Yusuf's followers
in 2009, wounding at least 17 Boko Haram members. Yusuf angrily denounced the security forces
and called on his followers to rise up against them.

b.

In a violent campaign that stretched some five days they attacked police stations and engaged in gun
battles before the military brutally cracked down. Yusuf was eventually captured by soldiers and then
handed over to police, who shot him dead. Police claimed he tried to escape when they killed him,
but witnesses said he was executed.

c.

A video later emerged of alleged security forces ordering people they suspected of being Boko
Haram members to lie on the ground before shooting them dead. Around 800 people were killed in
this round of violence.

Lying low for a year

a.

Boko Haram went underground for more than a year after the uprising, but re-emerged in 2010 with
assassinations and a major raid on a prison. Yusuf's deputy, Abubakar Shekau, who police claimed
had been killed in the 2009 uprising, began to appear in videos as the group's new leader.

b.

Attacks gradually grew more deadly and sophisticated, particularly with the use of explosives. A
suicide attacker rammed a car bomb into UN headquarters in the capital Abuja in August 2011,
killing 23 people in the most high profile of several incidents. Such violence gradually became
frequent in parts of northern and central Nigeria.

c.

The insurgency grew even more complicated when a splinter faction of Boko Haram - later known
as Ansaru - emerged by kidnapping foreigners. Boko Haram's main faction also started kidnapping
foreigners when Shekau claimed responsibility for the abduction of a French family of seven in
February 2013.

Targeting school children

a.

In 2013, Boko Haram targeted pupils in a series of awful school attacks in the northeast that killed
dozens of boys. Later there were reports that the group was also kidnapping girls and women with
the intent of raping them or making them brides.

b.

In April 2014, attackers raided Chibok deep in northeastern Nigeria and kidnapped 276 school girls,
generally between 16 and 18 years old. 219 remain missing. Shekau claimed credit for the kidnappings
in a video and threatened to sell them.

An umbrella-like structure
a.

It is perhaps best to think of today's Boko Haram as an umbrella-like structure, with true organisation
only at the very top. Cells may carry out attacks for their own reasons, recruiting foot soldiers as
needed from an army of young men who are susceptible to extremist ideology and hope to benefit
financially or otherwise.

b.

For these reasons, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, to say how many followers Boko Haram
have. It is also not clear how much of the insurgency is under the control of Shekau - or if he is even
still alive, after the military again claimed that he may have been killed. Someone who looks and
speaks like Shekau appeared in videos up to now and the violence has only worsened.

Financing and weaponry a.

Boko Haram has financed itself mainly through ransom kidnappings, bank robberies and other illegal
activities. The group is believed to have raided at least one Nigerian military arms depot. Illegal arms
are trafficked in West Africa and likely not difficult for Boko Haram to procure.

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b.

There have been accusations of political sponsorship, but little evidence has been offered. At this
point the insurgency has evolved into a many-headed monster, beyond the control of any one
politician.

10. Links to foreign groups

a.

Since 2004 small groups of Nigerian Islamists have traveled to northern Mali to train with extremists,
from what would later become Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). There have been indications
that Boko Haram and AQIM have cooperated in more recent years, possibly involving arms procurement
and training.

b.

A number of Nigerian Islamists are suspected of having formed links with al-Shabaab in Somalia or
AQIM and its offshoots. However, much remains unclear about all such links, and Boko Haram
should in no way be considered a branch of these organisations, nor of Al-Qaeda in general.

11. Their demands

a.

The insurgents' demands have varied, but they often focus on two main areas: the release of Boko
Haram prisoners and the creation of an Islamic state. While Shekau has pledged solidarity with
jihadists globally, Boko Haram's demands have largely remained local and the insurgency has fed on
poverty, hopelessness and unemployment in northern Nigeria. Finding Boko Haram leaders who
could legitimately negotiate a peace deal on behalf of the group has been a major challenge.

12. How the government has responded

a.

In May 2013 Nigeria declared a state of emergency in three northeastern states - Borno, Yobe and
Adamawa. The military has mainly responded with heavy-handed raids that have resulted in widespread
accusations of human rights abuses. Such accusations include indiscriminate arrests, extra-judicial
killings and the burning of homes, but the military has denied this.

b.

In October 2015, the Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai, on Monday said that the new
29 Task Force Brigade in Beneshiek, Borno, was strategically established to end insurgency. Mr.
Buratai made the remarks while addressing soldiers deployed to the new brigade in Beneshiek and
Ngamdu.

GREEK CRISIS
Brief Summary

The Greek government-debt crisis (also known as the Greek depression) started in late 2009.

It was the first of five sovereign debt crises in the Euro zone- later referred to collectively as the European
debt crisis. In Greece, triggers included the turmoil of the Great Recession, structural weaknesses in the
Greek economy, and a sudden crisis in confidence among lenders. In late 2009, fears developed about
Greece's ability to meet its debt obligations, due to revelations that previous data on government debt
levels and deficits had been misreported by the Greek government.

This led to a crisis of confidence, indicated by a widening of bond yield spreads and the cost of risk
insurance on credit default swaps compared to the other Euro zone countries - Germany in particular. In
2012, Greece's government had the largest sovereign debt default in history.

On June 30, 2015, Greece became the first developed country to fail to make an IMF loan repayment.
At that time, Greece's government had debts of 323bn.

Causes for the crisis 1.

GDP growth rates: After 2008, GDP growth rates were lower than the Greek national statistical agency
had anticipated. In the report, the Greek Ministry of Finance reported the need to improve competitiveness
by reducing salaries and bureaucracy, and the need to redirect much of its current governmental spending
from non-growth sectors such as military into growth-stimulating sectors.

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2.

Government deficit: Huge fiscal imbalances developed during the five years from 2004 to 2009: "the
output increased in nominal terms by 40%, while central government primary expenditures increased by
87% against an increase of only 31% in tax revenues." In the report the Greek Ministry of Finance stated
their aim to restore the fiscal balance of the public budget. They intended to implement permanent real
expenditure cuts (meaning expenditures would only be allowed to grow 3.8% from 2009 to 2013, which
was below the expected inflation at 6.9%). Overall revenues were expected to grow 31.5% from 2009 to
2013, secured not only by new, higher taxes but also by a major reform of the ineffective tax collection
system.

3.

Government debt-level: Mainly deteriorated in 2009 due to the higher than expected government deficit
and high debt-service costs. An urgent fiscal consolidation plan was needed to ensure that the deficit
would decline to a level compatible with a declining debt-to-GDP ratio. The Greek government assessed
that it was not enough to implement structural economic reforms, as the debt would still increase to an
unsustainable level before the positive results of such reforms could be achieved. On this basis the
government's report emphasized that in addition to implementing the needed structural economic reforms,
there was an urgent need in the coming four-year period to implement packages of both permanent and
temporary austerity measures (with a size relative to GDP of 4.0% in 2010, 3.1% in 2011, 2.8% in 2012
and 0.8% in 2013). Implementation of this entire package of structural reforms and austerity measures,
in combination with an expected return of positive economic growth in 2011, would then result in the
baseline deficit being forecast to decrease from 30.6 billion in 2009 to only 5.7 billion in 2013, while
the debt-level relative to GDP would stabilize at 120% in 2010-2011 and begin declining again in 2012
and 2013.

4.

Budget compliance: Budget compliance was acknowledged to be in strong need of improvement, and for
2009 it was even found to be "a lot worse than normal, due to economic control being more lax in a year
with political elections". In order to improve the level of budget compliance for upcoming years, the
Greek government wanted to implement a new reform to strengthen the monitoring system in 2010,
making it possible to keep better track on the future developments of revenues and expenses, both at the
governmental and local level.

5.

Statistical credibility: Problems with unreliable data had existed ever since Greece applied for membership
of the Euro in 1999. In the five years from 2005 to 2009,Eurostat each year noted a reservation about
the fiscal statistics for Greece, and too often previously reported figures got revised to a somewhat worse
figure, after a couple of years. The flawed statistics made it impossible to predict accurate numbers for
GDP growth, budget deficit and the public debt. By the end of the year, all turned out to be worse than
originally anticipated. Problems with statistical credibility were also evident in several other countries, but
in the case of Greece, the magnitude of the 2009 revisions and its connection to the crisis added pressure
to the need for immediate improvement.

Evaluation of 3rd bailout Greece govt sought a referendum on the conditions posed by the Troika that yielded an overwhelming "no"
from the Greek people. But subsequently under a new agreement, it accepted conditions over and above what
the referendum set out to seek. Government agreed to a continuation of the austerity programme and
privatization in return for debt relief concessions.
1.

The government's actions should be termed as a letdown. In the referendum people clearly said a No, but
in spite of this he agreed to continue austerity program and other conditions

2.

Reason for agreeing: But with the Euro zone being pushed by its largest economy, Germany, to prepare
for Grexit, Greece had barely any wiggle room: the pain of a Grexit was seen to be more daunting than
status quo for the economically crippled nation.

3.

Will this work ?

a.

Five years of austerity has only exacerbated the problem for the economy. So will further austerity
will do any good? In the past seven years the country's GDP has shrunk by 30 per cent while
unemployment has risen to over 25 per cent. If after years of austerity and two bailouts Greece still
has to seek a third bailout package to service its debt, that itself shows its path is unsustainable.

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4.

What Europe should have done was to write-off a major part of Greece's debt and allow the country to
lift public spending. This, in a classical Keynesian way, would have helped revive demand and thereby
economic growth.

5.

The present action against Greece exposes the fault-lines in the European project, which originally aimed
to integrate a continent economically and politically but failed to do so because of the insistence on a
faulty and unbalanced monetary union. While the mighty in the Euro zone might have won the battle over
retaining austerity, the war to sustain the Euro zone as it is, will continue.

Solution to Greek Crisis

a)

Exit the Euro zoneor "Grexit"-

Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman suggests that the Greek economy can recover from the
severe recession by exiting the Euro zone (often called "Grexit" in the media) and launching a new national
currency, the drachma. The devaluation of the currency may help Greece boost its exports and pay down
its debts with cheaper currency. In fact, Iceland made a dramatic recovery after it filed for bankruptcy in
2008, taking advantage of the devaluation of Icelandic krona (ISK). In 2013, it enjoyed an economic
growth rate of about 3.3 percent. Canada was also able to improve its budget position in the 1990s by
devaluing its currency.

However, the consequences of "Grexit" could be global and severe, including:

Membership in the Euro zone would no longer be perceived as irrevocable. Other countries might
be tempted to exit or demand additional debt relief. These countries might also see the interest rates
rise on their bonds, making debt service more difficult.

Further depreciation of the Euro relative to the dollar, which would cheapen Euro zone exports while
making imports more expensive for Euro zone members. This could reduce the exports of non-Euro
countries.

Geopolitical shifts, such as closer relations between Greece and Russia, as the crisis sours relations
with Europe.

Significant financial losses for Euro zone countries and the IMF, which are owed the majority of
Greece's roughly $300 billion national debt.

Adverse impact on the IMF and the credibility of its austerity strategy, which has contributed to the
Greek depression.

Inability of Greece to access global capital markets and the collapse of its banking system for an
indeterminate period of time.

b)

Digital currency cards -

The bank multiplier effect means the amount of bank deposits far exceeds the amount of paper Euros.
Greece and its people face a shortage of paper Euros when withdrawing funds from their bank accounts.
Reducing the requirement of paper Euros in the withdrawal process, into a digital form, allows withdrawals
and spending.

c)

European debt conference -

Economist Thomas Piketty said in July 2015: "We need a conference on all of Europe's debts, just like
after World War II. A restructuring of all debt, not just in Greece but in several European countries, is
inevitable." He pointed out that Germany received significant debt relief after World War II. A new
institution would be required to manage budget deficits within limits across all Euro zone countries. He
warned that: "If we start kicking states out, then the crisis of confidence in which the Euro zone finds
itself today will only worsen. Financial markets will immediately turn on the next country. This would
be the beginning of a long, drawn-out period of agony, in whose grasp we risk sacrificing Europe's social
model, its democracy, indeed its civilization on the altar of a conservative, irrational austerity policy."

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USA - CUBA REAPPROACHMENT

1.

Strained relations a.

In 1959 Fidel Castro seized power by disposing off US-Backed dictator and established a communist
state.

b.

In 1960 US broke its diplomatic relations with it; imposes trade Imbargo.

c.

in 1961 in "Bay of Pigs invasion", U.S.'s attempted to depose Fidel Castro but failed

d.

In 1962, the Cuban missle crisis took USA and USSR to the brink of nuclear war.

2.

Cuban thaw -the Cuban Thaw is a warming of Cuba-United States relations that began in December 2014,
ending a 54-year stretch of hostility between the nations.

3.

Steps taken -

4.

a.

In December 17, 2014, U.S. President Barack Obama and Cuban President Ral Castro announced
the beginning of a process of normalizing relations between Cuba and the United States. The
normalization agreement was secretly negotiated in preceding months with the assistance of Pope
Francis. Meetings were held in both Canada and the Vatican City. Under the agreement it was
decided to lift some U.S. travel restrictions, fewer restrictions on remittances, U.S. banks' access to
the Cuban financial system, and the reopening of the U.S. embassy in Havana and the Cuban
embassy in Washington, which both closed in 1961 after the breakup of diplomatic relations as a
result of Cuba's close alliance with the USSR.

b.

On April 14, 2015, the Obama administration announced that Cuba would be removed from the
United States State Sponsors of Terrorism list. This marked a further departure by the United States
from the Cold War conflict and its strain on Cuba-United States relations.

c.

On July 20, 2015, the Cuban and U.S. "interests sections" in Washington and Havana respectively
were upgraded to embassies.

Reasons for reapproachment a.

For Mr Obama, the reasons are more obvious. America's long-standing attempt to isolate Cuba both
commercially and diplomatically has been an utter failure. It has failed to dislodge the Castros, hurt
the Cuban people, and stoked anti-Americanism in the rest of Latin America.

b.

Those who most vociferously back the trade blockade are Cuban-Americans of a similar generation
to the Castros who have now become a grumpy minority.

c.

Polls indicate that the majority of Cuban-Americans younger than 65 not only support Mr Obama's
efforts to improve relations, but also want to end the embargo. That suggests that the president's
outreach to Cuba may partly be a way of repaying young Hispanic Democrats who helped bring him
to power.

d.

It also improves America's stature across Latin America. It helps the Obama administration recuperate
influence lost to the late Hugo Chvez before he died and left Venezuela's socialist economy in a
tailspin, unable to bankroll his so-called Bolivarian Revolution across parts of the hemisphere.

e.

Cubans have been deeply affected by the US embargo, and while its lifting is not on the cards at
present, President Obama announced a series of measures that will make a difference to the lives of
many Cubans.The amount of money which can be sent in remittances will quadruple from $500
(320) to $2,000 per quarter.Telecom providers will be allowed to improve Cuba's infrastructure so
that more Cubans can access the internet. Currently Cuba has one of the lowest internet penetration
in the world and what little there is is unaffordable for many. Travel restrictions to Cuba will be
relaxed, making family visits and cross-border humanitarian projects easier.