6/3/2010

Election Results Data Analysis

Scope and Limitations

 Liberal Party, as the dominant minority party, had access to a work station in
the COMELEC Pius server.

 This analysis uses raw data drawn from the COMELEC Pius Server as of
May 21, 2010. This is the same data used by the PPCRV and major
networks such as GMA and ABS-CBN to publish election results.

 The first PCOS transmission was received on May 10, 2010 at 5:42PM while
the last PCOS transmission was received on May 17, 2010 at 9:29PM.

 68,980 out of 76,475 (90.20%) PCOS machines transmitted election results

as of May 21, 2010 totaling 34,672,876 votes.

 At least 263 PCOS machines transmitted FTS (Final Testing and Sealing)
data representing 10 votes or less instead of the actual election results.
These were omitted, so as not to skew the results.

1
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis

Turnout Analysis
Region Precinct Turnout
 The national average precinct turnout is
I 81.83
76.32% for all precincts including null
V 81.02
votes (registered voters/valid votes + null
VIII 80.99
votes)
VII 80.76
 Highest average precinct turnout: VI 79.40
Regions I, V, VIII, and VII with an average CARAGA 79.38
of 81%. X 77.56
CAR 77.48
 Lowest average precinct turnout:
III 76.94
Regions XII, NCR, and XI with an average
IV-B 76.65
70%.
II 76.52
 Binay voters had a 38.07% average IV-A 74.24
turnout for all precincts while Roxas voters ARMM 73.18
had 35.49%. IX 71.26
XI 70.29
 Estrada voters had 25.16% average
NCR 70.20
turnout for all precincts while Aquino had
XII 70.02
38.80%.
Total 75.97%

2
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
AQUINO and ROXAS had the highest turnouts
in Regions VI, VII and CARAGA.

Turnout Analysis
ESTRADA and BINAY had the highest turnout
in Regions II, XI and XII

3
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
AQUINO and BINAY had the strongest turnout
in ARMM, NCR, IV-A and IX.

Turnout Analysis
The rest of the regions (CAR, I, III, IV-B, V, VIII, and X) had no clear indication
of support for either Aquino-Binay or Aquino-Roxas.

4
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
Provinces with unusually high voter turnout (95%+)
Clustered Precincts with
Region/Province Average of Precinct Turnout Binay Votes Roxas Votes Difference
unusually high turnout
ARMM 578 of 2,558 (22.5%) 97.85 122,320 29,759 -92,561
BASILAN 47 97.63 11,461 3,485 -7,976
LANAO DEL SUR 180 of 881 (20%) 97.43 32,788 4,125 -28,663
MAGUINDANAO 186 of 769 (24%) 98.15 57,846 7,307 -50,539
SULU 113 of 382 (30%) 97.92 15,083 6,713 -8,370
TAWI-TAWI 52 98.29 5,142 8,129 2,987
CAR 46 of 1,526 (3%) 98.47 9,500 3,520 -5,980
ABRA 9 98.37 2,022 667 -1,355
APAYAO 3 98.60 448 55 -393
BENGUET 1 96.48 14 82 68
KALINGA 33 of 223 (15%) 98.54 7,016 2,716 -4,300
CARAGA 1 98.78 227 132 -95
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 1 98.78 227 132 -95
I 2 96.17 23 139 116
ILOCOS SUR 2 96.17 23 139 116
II 1 96.15 173 14 -159
ISABELA 1 96.15 173 14 -159
III 3 95.68 1,020 540 -480
BULACAN 1 95.38 192 178 -14
PAMPANGA 2 95.83 828 362 -466

Turnout Analysis
Provinces with unusually high voter turnout (95%+)
Clustered Precincts with
Region/Province Average of Precinct Turnout Binay Votes Roxas Votes Difference
unusually high turnout
IV-A 1 99.78 179 155 -24
QUEZON 1 99.78 179 155 -24
IX 7 96.70 2,415 368 -2,047
ZAMBOANGA DEL SUR 4 96.75 521 313 -208
ZAMBOANGA SIBUGAY 3 96.63 1,894 55 -1,839
VI 3 95.80 56 241 185
ANTIQUE 1 95.00 2 25 23
ILOILO 2 96.20 54 216 162
VII 5 95.83 150 422 272
CEBU 4 95.94 138 372 234
SIQUIJOR 1 95.40 12 50 38
VIII 10 97.42 526 978 452
LEYTE 4 97.49 471 651 180
NORTHERN SAMAR 1 95.48 7 28 21
SAMAR (WESTERN SAMAR) 5 97.76 48 299 251
X 84 98.60 10,834 9,250 -1,584
LANAO DEL NORTE 83 of 638 (13%) 98.65 10,810 9,174 -1,636
MISAMIS ORIENTAL 1 95.02 24 76 52
XII 28 97.74 4,590 864 -3,726
COTABATO (NORTH COT.) 16 of 854 (2%) 97.83 2,261 428 -1,833
SOUTH COTABATO 1 96.06 336 23 -313
SULTAN KUDARAT 11 of 525 (2%) 97.76 1,993 413 -1,580

5
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
In the ARMM provinces,
Lanao Del Sur and Maguindanao had the strongest turnouts for Aquino and Binay.

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Lanao Del Sur
(Binay is winning by 91,160)

6
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Lanao Del Sur
(Binay is winning by 91,160)

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Maguindanao
(Binay is winning by 121,812)

7
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Maguindanao
(Binay is winning by 121,812)

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Maguindanao
(Binay is winning by 31,889)

8
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Sulu
(Binay is winning by 14,096)

Turnout Analysis
ARMM – Tawi-Tawi
(Roxas is winning by 4,034)

9
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
10 VOTES OR LESS
 Roxas received 10 votes or less in 1,147 precincts 688 (60%) of which
are from ARMM. The next highest is Region XII with 7.98% of the
said precincts.
In these 688 ARMM precincts, 328 (47.6%) are from Lanao Del Sur, and 251
(36.4%) are from Maguindanao.

 In contrast, Binay received 10 or less votes in only 754 precincts which were
spread in various regions, the highest being in Regions VI with 229
(30.37%), Region VIII with 140 (18.57%), ARMM with 103 (13.66%),
and Region X with 81 (10.74%).

Turnout Analysis
Precincts with 10 or less votes for Binay Precincts with 10 or less votes for Roxas

Region Precincts Percentage Region Precincts Percentage

ARMM 103 13.77% ARMM 688 59.98%
CAR 30 4.01%
CAR 34 2.96%
CARAGA 29 3.88%
CARAGA 7 0.61%
I 11 1.47%
I 6 0.52%
II 11 1.47%
III 5 0.67% II 48 4.18%
IV-A 13 1.74% III 6 0.52%
IV-B 15 2.01% IV-A 8 0.70%
IX 10 1.34% IV-B 6 0.52%
NCR 5 0.67%
IX 41 3.57%
V 10 1.34%
V 19 1.66%
VI 229 30.61%
VII 33 4.41% VI 6 0.52%

VIII 140 18.72% VIII 88 7.67%

X 81 10.83% X 83 7.24%
XI 2 0.27% XI 15 1.31%
XII 21 2.81%
XII 92 8.02%
Grand Total 748 100.00% Grand Total 1147 100.00%

10
 6/3/2010

Turnout Analysis
1% VOTE or LESS
 Roxas received less than 1% votes of the total precinct turnout in 305 precincts.
230 (75%) of these precincts are from ARMM particularly in Maguindanao with 108 (46.9%)
and Lanao Del Sur with 81 (35%).
 Binay received less than 1% votes in only 116 precincts.
These are more evenly distributed from ARMM with 31 (26.72%), Region VIII with 22
(18.97%), and X with 15 (12.93%).

1 VOTE or LESS
 Roxas received 1 vote or less in 204 precincts.
152 (74.5%) of these precincts are from ARMM particularly in Lanao Del Sur with 68 (45%)
and Maguindanao with 62 (41%).
94 (60.26%) of these precincts had an unusually high voter turnout of 97%.
 Binay received 1 vote or less in only 97 precincts
These precincts are more evenly distributed from Region VIII with 44 (25.77%), Region VI with
16 (16.49%), and ARMM with 18 (18.56%).
Only 19 (19.59%) of these precincts had a voter turnout of 97%.

Turnout Analysis
 In 6 precincts in ARMM with an unusually high voter turnout, Binay received almost all if
not all of the valid votes while Roxas had zero or 1 vote
 4 of these precincts are in Lanao Del Sur (Actual Turnout: 76.26%)
 Tagoloan II had a 96.29% voter turnout, Bumbaran had a 96.55% turnout., and Malabang
had a 92% turnout.
 1 of these precincts is in Maguindanao (Actual Turnout: 69.51%)
 Datu Odin Sinsuat had a 98.71% turnout.
 1 of these precincts is in Basilan (Actual Turnout: 72.29%)
 Tabuan-Lasa had a 89.15% turnout.
Precinct Registered BinayVotes RoxasVotes
Lanao Del Sur
 Tagoloan II (474491) 316 316 (100%) 0
 Tagoloan II (474494) 212 212 (100%) 0
 Bumbaran (474471) 66 63 (98%) 0
 Malabang (472700) 135 128 (96%) 1
Maguindanao
 Datu Odin Sinsuat (481467) 612 604 (99%) 0
Basilan
 Tabuan-Lasa (445658) 766 746 (98%) 0

11
 6/3/2010

Null Votes Analysis

Null Votes Analysis

PRESIDENTIAL RACE
 The Presidential Race has 33,077,654 valid votes counted with Aquino leading
at 13,841,583 votes (41.84%) followed by Estrada at 8,758,489 votes
(26.47%).
 A difference of 5,083,094 votes in favor of Aquino with null votes at 1,595,222
(4.60%).

VICE PRESIDENTIAL RACE

 The Vice-Presidential Race has 32,060,669 valid votes counted, with Binay
leading at 13,491,946 votes or 42.08%, and Roxas at 12,679,635 votes or
39.54%.
 A difference of 812,311 votes in favor of Binay with null votes at 2,612,207
(7.53%)

 There are 61% more than the null votes in the vice-presidential race
compared with the presidential race.

12
 6/3/2010

Null Votes Analysis

 Based on the precinct turnout analysis, ARMM also had the most amount of
precincts that had 10 or less votes for Roxas (688, 60%), less than 1% (230,
75%), and less than 1 vote (152, 75%).
 In Tawi-Tawi where Roxas won by 4,034 votes, 24.43% of votes for VP were
considered null
 In Sulu, where Roxas lost by a narrow margin of 14,096 votes, 32.88% of the votes
cast for VP were considered null
 In Lanao del Sur where Roxas lost by a wide margin of 91,160 votes, 24.28% of the
votes cast for VP were considered null

Region/Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference

BASILAN 28,752 151,026 19.04% 60,999 29,110 -31,889
LANAO DEL SUR 69,022 284232 24.28% 114,188 23,028 -91,160
MAGUINDANAO 45,062 351526 12.82% 159,133 37,321 -121,812
SULU 47,389 144119 32.88% 35,460 21,364 -14,096
TAWI-TAWI 21,046 86136 24.43% 18,053 22,087 4,034

Null Votes Analysis

Binay only won by 10% or less
 In the Vice-Presidential Race, 3 regions had Region Null % Vote Difference
high incidence of null votes where Binay is VIII 17.77% -53,634
winning by 10% of the votes or less, X 11.01% -39,300
Regions V (6.61%), VIII (9.22%), and X V 9.69% -52,372

(6.74%).
 For Region X, the provinces where Roxas is winning, high percentages of null
votes were seen.
 In Bukidnon where Roxas is winning by 27,191 votes, 12.72% of the votes for VP
were considered null
 In Misamis Occidental where Roxas is winning by 41,058 votes, 16.15% of the
votes for VP were considered null
Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference

BUKIDNON 63,878 502,210 12.72% 155,007 182,198 27,191

CAMIGUIN 3,258 43,450 7.50% 4,987 9,138 4,151
LANAO DEL NORTE 23,511 302,808 7.76% 112,026 85,004 -27,022

MISAMIS OCCIDENTAL 38,294 237,140 16.15% 46,027 87,085 41,058

MISAMIS ORIENTAL 53,505 572,180 9.35% 264,807 180,129 -84,678

14
 6/3/2010

Null Votes Analysis

 In Region V, the province of Masbate where Mar Roxas is winning by
15,568 votes, 24.27% of votes for VP were considered null
Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference
ALBAY 33,027 516,991 6.39% 202,764 220,622 17,858
CAMARINES NORTE 8,559 201,498 4.25% 84,158 74,776 -9,382
CAMARINES SUR 55,069 663,852 8.30% 216,977 251,912 34,935
CATANDUANES 11,378 117,103 9.72% 58,510 29,263 -29,247

MASBATE 73,285 303,170 24.17% 77,624 93,192 15,568

Binay and Roxas Null Vote Comparison

 In CARAGA, VI, and VII where Roxas Vote
was winning by wide margins, there is a Region Null % Difference

high incidence of null votes. NCR 1.62% -656,857

IV-A 3.39% -727,441
 In contrast, in NCR and Region IV-A
VII 10.91% 758,227
where Binay is winning by wide margins,
there is a low incidence of null votes. CARAGA 10.75% 73,319

VI 8.84% 1,121,845
* Computed at 75% Voter Turnout

Null Votes Analysis

 Region VI had a total average of 8.84% null votes.
Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference
AKLAN 16,807 215,035 7.82% 46,564 116,326 69,762
ANTIQUE 28,743 209,065 13.75% 41,428 77,966 36,538
CAPIZ 19,985 322,776 6.19% 82,855 191,948 109,093
GUIMARAS 7,442 72,282 10.30% 7,647 45,661 38,014
ILOILO 58,906 875,848 6.73% 131,991 548,504 416,513
NEGROS OCCIDENTAL 116,194 1,112,107 10.45% 208,095 660,020 451,925

 Region VII had a total average of 10.91% null votes.

Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference
BOHOL 56,176 517,641 10.85% 159,516 222,402 62,886
CEBU 136,106 1,576,560 8.63% 343,366 897,770 554,404
NEGROS ORIENTAL 83,194 443,868 18.74% 78,814 207,031 128,217
SIQUIJOR 6,890 48,908 14.09% 7,374 20,094 12,720

 CARAGA had a total average of 10.75% null votes.

Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference
AGUSAN DEL NORTE 21,452 257,427 8.33% 77,670 110,585 32,915
AGUSAN DEL SUR 22,745 238,429 9.54% 76,125 85,145 9,020
DINAGAT ISLANDS 5,516 41,278 13.36% 4,972 8,551 3,579
SURIGAO DEL NORTE 30,136 213,216 14.13% 55,634 68,259 12,625
SURIGAO DEL SUR 26,738 241,300 11.08% 70,281 85,461 15,180

15
 6/3/2010

Null Votes Analysis

 Region IV-A only had a total average of 3.39% null votes.
Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference

BATANGAS 36,542 1,012,007 3.61% 527,954 362,509 -165,445

CAVITE 25,749 1,046,495 2.46% 546,786 362,188 -184,598

LAGUNA 28,228 1,007,644 2.80% 537,923 314,945 -222,978

QUEZON 43,232 702,157 6.16% 297,010 262,153 -34,857

RIZAL 20,463 786,943 2.60% 384,256 264,693 -119,563

 And NCR posted with the lowest total average, 1.69% null votes.
Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference

NCR 62,342 3,908,752 1.59% 1,978,139 1,365,287 -612,852

TAGUIG-PATEROS 4,411 217,999 2.02% 117,703 73,698 -44,005

Null Votes Analysis

Hometown Analysis: Capiz vs Makati

Province Null Votes Total Votes Percentage BINAY ROXAS Difference

CAPIZ 19,985 322,776 6.19% 82,855 191,948 109,093

MAKATI 3,439 273,960 1.25% 174,218 72,457 -101,761

16
 6/3/2010

Timeline Analysis

Timeline Analysis
FIRST PCOS TRANSMISSION RECEIVED

DATU ODIN SINSUAT, MAGUINDANAO

(Clustered Precinct CP 23 0084A, 0085A, 0086A, Bgy. Benolen)

Results received by Comelec Server on May 10 at 5:42pm

Polls were set to close at 7:00pm

There were 464 registered voters in the clustered precincts covered by the PCOS machine.
463 voted for the same candidate for VP. There were no null votes for VP.
This leaves one voter who was denied a chance to vote
with the polls closing earlier than 7:00pm to allow the PCOS to transmit by 5:42pm

The first PCOS transmission was received by the Comelec server on May 10, 2010 at 5:42PM.
The last PCOS transmission was received by the Comelec server on May 17, 2010 at 9:29PM.

17
 6/3/2010

Timeline Analysis

ARMM TRANSMISSIONS ON MAY 10

Between 5:00pm and 5:59pm of May 10 (election day), before the polls closed at 7:00pm,
ARMM transmitted 1,064 votes for VP all coming from Maguindanao.

By 12:00 midnight of May10 (election day) ARMM transmitted 393,196 votes for VP.
This includes 196,626 votes from Maguindanao and 72,005 votes from Lanao Del Sur for VP.

By 12:00 midnight of May 10 (election day), Binay was leading by 831,166.

Timeline Analysis
 By the end of May 10, the final transmission was received between 11:00PM at
11:59pm tallied 64.53% of the votes cast already transmitted.
 At 64.53% of the votes transmitted on May 10, Binay was already leading by 831,166.
After Binay established his 800,000 lead at the end of the day of the elections (May
10), he maintained it from then on.
 In contrast, Aquino only started maintaining his lead on May 12, two days after the
elections.

Received Date BINAY ROXAS Total Votes % of Votes Difference Roxas Gains

5/10 5:00PM-5:59PM 836 453 2,427 0.01% -383 0

5/10 6:00PM-6:59PM 118,092 91,991 295,915 0.83% -26,101 -25,718

5/10 7:00PM-7:59PM 2,328,062 2,109,350 5,471,541 15.39% -218,712 -192,611

5/10 8:00PM-8:59PM 5,247,622 4,727,266 12,132,150 34.13% -520,356 -301,644

5/10 9:00PM-9:59PM 7,404,400 6,690,192 17,086,091 48.07% -714,208 -193,852

5/10 10:00PM-10:59PM 8,808,503 8,024,786 20,400,010 57.39% -783,717 -69,509

5/10 11:00PM-11:59PM 9,877,472 9,046,306 22,936,672 64.53% -831,166 -47,449

18
 6/3/2010

Timeline Analysis
Despite concerns prior to the election of transmission problems in the ARMM, on election day,
ARMM had consistent transmissions.
Vote-rich provinces like NCR, IV-A, VI, and VII were done with most of their transmissions by
May 11, 2010, while I and III on May 13, 2010.
ARMM is the only province that transmitted votes everyday, between May 10 to May 17.

Reception Date 10-May 11-May 12-May 13-May 14-May 15-May 16-May 17-May
ARMM 393,196 362,917 19,466 12,966 10,686 2,832 494 3,211
CAR 434,729 113,945 2,200 502 628
CARAGA 610,037 266,783 3,774 3,908 561
I 1,373,446 390,722 63,166 127,671 616
II 942,736 233,038 4,525 3,200
III 3,069,912 561,120 76,931 111,798 20,767 435 814
IV-A 3,488,514 842,949 68,054 1,515
IV-B 612,416 290,105 7,095 2,379 1,617 341
IX 632,289 347,523 4,306 317 164
NCR 3,510,452 519,179 23,852 5,240 1,275
V 1,145,087 730,340 3,045 4,008
VI 1,725,641 795,954 35,012 2,049 380
VII 1,254,045 1,043,686 6,880
VIII 787,918 610,793 7,729 9,542 823
X 1,027,938 441,829 4,733 842
XI 1,038,243 515,983 5,364 7,646 528
XII 842,272 366,725 11,239 2,694

Impact

19
 6/3/2010

Impact

Canvassing Issues Votes in play

Special Elections 83,578
Lowered Threshold 92,740
Erroneous uploading of Final
Testing & Sealing (FTS) results
instead of actual election
results 169,849
Null Votes 2,612,207
Total 2,958,374

20