TPR3411 Pattern Recognition

Tutorial 2 (Solution)
1.

The probability that Sam parks in a no-parking zone and gets

police summon is 0.06. The probability that Sam cannot find a
legal parking space and has to park in the no-parking zone is
0.20. On Tuesday, Sam arrives at school and has to park in a noparking zone. Find the probability that he will get a police
summon.
Solution:

Let N = parking in a no-parking zone

summon
Then
P (S N ) 0.06
P(S | N )

0.30
P( N )
0.20

S = getting a police

2. Probability that John passes a Math exam is 4/5 and that he

passes a Computer programming exam is 5/6. If the probability
that he passes both exams is 3/4, find the probability that he will
pass at least one exam.
Solution:

Let M = John passes Math exam and C = John passes Computer

programming exam.
Then P (John passes at least one exam) = P(M U C ) = P(M) + P(C)
P(M C)
= 4/5+5/6
3/4 = 53/60

3.

For the experiment in which the number of pumps in use at a single

eight-pump gas station is observed. Let A = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5}, B ={4, 5,
6, 7, 8} and C = {1, 6, 7}. Then find
a) AB
b) A U B
c) A U C and
d) (A U C)
Solutions:
a) AB = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {4, 5}
b) A U B = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {4, 5, 6, 7, 8} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7,
8} = S
c) A U C = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5} U {1, 6, 7} = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7}
d) (A U C) = S - (A U C) = {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8} - {0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5,
6, 7} = {8}

4. Imagine that you went to a friends wedding in Australia recently.

It is known that 1 in 200 people who visited Australia recently
come back with swine flu. The doctor selects you at random to
have a blood test for swine flu. The test is 99% accurate and the
probability of a false positive is 2%. You test positive. What is the
probability that you have swine flu?
Solution:
P ( Flu ) 0.005 , P (Flu ) 0.995
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.99 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.01
P ( Pos | Flu ) 0.02 , P ( Neg | Flu ) 0.98
P ( Flu | Pos)

P ( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu )

P( Pos | Flu ) P ( Flu ) P ( Pos | Flu ) P (Flu )

0.99 0.005)
(0.99 0.005) (0.02 0.995)

= 0.07
5. Assume that you are on a quiz show. There is a prize behind one
of the two doors. The doors are coloured red and blue. A coin will
be tossed to decide which door to open. You were told that there
is prize behind the red door 10% of the time, and the blue door
20% of the time.
If given a choice to make, which door would you open in order to
win the prize?
Solution:
P (Red) 0.5 , P ( Blue) 0.5
P (Prize | Red) 0.1 , P (Prize | Red) 0.9
P (Prize | Blue) 0.2 , P (Prize | Blue) 0.8
P (Red | Prize)

P (Prize | Red) P(Red)

P (Prize | Red) P(Red) P(Prize | Blue) P(Blue)

0.1 0.5
(0.1 0.5) (0.2 0.5)

= 0.33
P (Blue | Prize) 1 0.33 0.67
Therefore, I would choose to open the blue door.
6.

During the summer months, a retailer keeps track of the

number of iPads it sells each day during a period of 90 days. The
number of iPad sold per day is represented by the variable X.
Compute the probability P(X) for each X.
X

Number of days

45

30

15

Total

90

Solutions:
For 0 iPad: 45/90 = 0.5
For 1 iPad: 30/90 = 0.33
For 2 iPads: 15/90 = 0.17
Number of iPads sold X
Probability P(X)

0.50

0.33

0.17

7.

Find the probability of getting a 3 or 4 or 5 while throwing a die where

sample spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9}.

Solution:
Sample Spaces S={1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9} and event E={3,4,5}.
We have, number of outcomes=3 and total number of outcomes = 9
So, P(E)=3/9=0.3333

8. The probability distribution shown in the given table represents the

number holidays that an MMU student spends in the home town per
2 weeks. (That is, 18% do not go to the home town so sad, 34%
spend 1 day, 23% spends 2 days and so on).
a) Find the mean
b) Compute variance and standard deviation
Number of days
X

Probability P(X)

0.18

0.34

0.23

0.21

0.04

Solutions:
a)

X P ( X )

= (0)(0.18)+(1)(0.34)+(2)(0.23)+(3)(0.21)+(4)(0.04)
= 1.6

b)

2 ( X ) 2 P( X )
[(0 1.6) 2 0.18] [(1 1.6) 2 0.34] [(2
1.6) 2 0.23]

[(3
1.6)
2 0.21]

[(4
1.6)
2 0.04]

= 1.23
The standard deviation is 2 1.23 1.1