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Basic equation
Roil=7758AhSh(1/Bo)Rfo
R(gas)=43560AhSh(1/Bg)Rfg
R(condensate)=43560AhSh(1/Bg)
RfgCGR
Where:
A = areal extent of prospect in acres
H = average net pay in feet
= average porosity
Sh = hydrocarbon saturation
Boil =initial oil formation volume factor in reservoir barrels/stock
tank barrels ( STB )
Bg = initial gas formation volume factor in reservoir cubic
feet/surface cubic feet
Rfo = recovery factor for oil
Rfg = recovery factor for gas
CR = condensate recovery factor in STB/ft3
7538 = conversion factor from acre-feet to barrels
43560 =conversion factor from acre-feet to cubic feet
Calculation steps
Step 1
Specify the parameter ranges ( 5%, 10% and 95%
probabilities of occurrence of each parameter )
Step 2
Calculate a mean and variance for each parameter
m(v) = 0.185P5(v) + 0.63 P50(v) + 0.185 P95(v)
m2(v) = 0.185 P5(v)2 + 0.63 P50(v)2 + 0.185
P95(v)2
2(v)=In[m2(v)/m(v)2]
Where
m(v)the mean of the natural logarithm for each parameter
If calculating the mean of areav = A, i.e. m(V) = m(A)
2(v)the variance of the natural logarithm for each parameter
P5(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P50(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
P95(v)the 5% probability of occurrence for each parameter
For example, the mean and variance of area in the table are:
m(A)=0.185225+0.63900+(0.1853300)=1219
2(A)=ln[(0.185225)2+(0.63900)2+
(0.1853300)2]/(1219)2
=0.5337
Step 3
Multiply the parameter means and sum the variance to obtain
the mean and variance of the reserve distribution
2[R(oil)] = 2(A) + 2( h ) + 2()+2( Sh ) + 2( 1/Bo )
+ 2( Rfo )
m[R(oil)] = 7758 m(A) m(h) m(p) m(Sh) m(1/Bo)
m(Rfo)
In the table
2[(oil)]=0.0000+0.5337+0.5591+0.0154+0.0360+0.0176
+0.0158+0.0075+0.0645
=1.2496
m[R(Oil)=77581219870.81110.77780.2519
0.78520.70000.3182
=23106bbl
Step 4
Calculate values for different probabilities of occrrence
Rx = P50 (R) ez(x)
whereP50(R)m(R) e-0.5 2
Z(x)the value or z factor corresponding
to the x-percentile of the standard normal distribution
In the table
Median (50% probability)=23e-0.51.2496=12106bbl
Low(10% probability)= 12e-1.2821.2496=3106bbl
INPUT
OUTPUT
MEAN
VARIANC
E
LOW
(10%)
7758
7758
0.0000
900
3300
1219
0.5337
569
934
1533
15
63
240
87
0.5591
NET TO GROSS
0.63
0.83
0.96
0.8171
0.0154
GEOMETRIC FACTOR
0.5
0.8
0.98
0.7778
0.0360
POROSITY
0.2
0.25
0.31
0.2519
0.0176
0.23
0.25
0.27
HC SATURATION
0.6
0.8
0.92
0.7852
0.0158
0.72
0.78
0.85
1/FVF
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7000
0.0075
0.66
0.70
0.74
RECOVERY FACTOR
0.18
0.32
0.45
0.3182
0.0645
0.26
0.31
0.37
23
1.2496
12
52
5%
50%
95%
CONVERSION
FACTOR
BBL/ACRE-FT
7758
7758
AREAACRES
225
GROSS PAYFT
RESERVE106 BBL
MEDIAN
(50%)
HIGH
(90%)