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EPW
SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
NOTES
Figure 1: Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate for First Quarter 2016
7.3
6.8
6.3
5.7 5.5
2.8 2.8
2.5 2.3
2.1
0.1
-0.5 -0.7
-3.8
-5.9
India
China
Philippines
Turkey
Pakistan
Indonesia
Sweden
Malaysia
Czech Republic
Poland
Spain
Saudi Arabia
Colombia
South Korea
Australia
Egypt
Thailand
Israel
Mexico
Argentina
UK
US
USA
Average
Hong Kong
Singapore
Netherlands
Belgium
France
Germany
Chile
Austria
Italy
Japan
South Africa
Canada
Denmark
Switzerland
Norway
Taiwan
Greece
Russia
Brazil
Venezuela
-8.8
size of the Indian and Chinese economies. The Indian economy is only the
10th largest in the world, at a value of
about $1.5$2 trillion. The Chinese
economy is now the second largest in the
world and is valued at $10 trillion. China
is economically five to six times larger
than India.
On the all-important current account
dimension, India fares appallingly, and
comes 34th out of 42 with a current account deficit of $22.6 billion, while China
is first with a current account surplus of
$330.6 billion. In other words, China has
made $350 billion more money, as compared to India, in the first quarter of
2016. It is Chinas firms that have made
the money, by manufacturing and selling goods and services that the world
wants. Conversely, the sale of Indian
goods and services do not even cover her
own expenses. This is clearly not an indicator that India has a vibrant and
Table 1: A Comparison of Key Parameters between China and India for the First Quarter of 2016
Key Economic Parameters
Size of economy
GDP growth rate
Current account balance
Industrial production growth
Interest rate
Inflation
Actual Performance
of India
Actual Performance
of China
$1.5 trillion
7.30%
$(22.6) billion deficit
2.00%
7.44%
4.80%
10
1
34
15
11
9
$10 trillion
6.80%
$330.6 billion surplus
5.40%
2.60%
2.30%
2
2
1
7
18
18
These economy size data are obtained from a news article (http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-can-indeed-begrowth-engine-but-modi-must-stop-overselling-the-story-2822666.html) and not the Economist. All other data are from
the Economist.
SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
vol lI no 36
EPW
NOTES
Correlation
Coefficient
0.38
-0.56
-0.17
-0.15
0.07
-0.18
0.51
First, there is a strong positive correlation between interest rates and inflation. High interest rates lead to high
financing costs which are passed through
to consumers.
Second, there is a high negative relationship between inflation and GDP
growth, as the 42 countries data show.
As prices go up, people consume less, as
only to be expected.
Third, there is a negative relationship
between the level of interest rates and
GDP growth. If the price of money is
high, growth is low.
Given that India is a high interest rate
and high inflation country, as the preceding comparative data for the 42 countries have shown, the high GDP growth
rate of India in the present quarter is acHas Indian Economic Policy Failed? tually quite a mystery! But, let us not
To address the issue of conceptual gaps cast aspersions on Indias statisticians.
in Indias economic policymaking, I
Fourth, there is a negative relationconducted a relatively simple statistical ship between the interest rate and the
analysis on the data of the 42 countries, current account balance. Simply put, in
so as to assess the key economic a high-cost-of-money economy, firms
relationships that recent data for the cannot, or will not, produce goods and
world shows.
services that can be competitive in a
global economy. The goods
Table 2: A Relative Assessment of India versus China on Certain
Key Economic Parameters
and services emanating
Economic Parameter
Relative
Winner in
Performance
the Category from India are hardly likely
to be of such a high quality
GDP growth rate
1.07 times Chinas growth
India
Current account balance
14.39 times Indias balance China
that people will pay overIndustrial production growth 2.70 times Indias growth
China
the-odds as prices, simply
Interest rate
35% of Indias interest rate
China
because they have cost
Inflation
48% of Indias inflation
China
more to produce because of
Economic & Political Weekly
EPW
SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
vol lI no 36
NOTES
SEPTEMBER 3, 2016
EPW Index
An author-title index for EPW has been
prepared for the years from 1968 to 2012.
The PDFs of the Index have been uploaded,
year-wise, on the EPW website. Visitors can
download the Index for all the years from
the site. (The Index for a few years is yet to be
prepared and will be uploaded when ready.)
EPW would like to acknowledge the help of
the staff of the library of the Indira Gandhi
Institute for Development Research, Mumbai,
in preparing the index under a project
supported by the RD Tata Trust.
vol lI no 36
EPW