Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
module 8
COLLECTIVE
INVESTMENT SCHEMES
4th Edition - September 2011
Capital Markets And Financial Advisory Services Examination Module 8 Collective Investment Schemes
In line with the licensing framework under the Securities and Futures Act (SFA) and
Financial Advisers Act (FAA), the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has launched
a modular examination structure, known as the Capital Markets and Financial Advisory
Services Examination (CMFAS Examination).
This study guide is designed for candidates preparing for Module 8 Collective
Investment Schemes examination. This examination is for new representatives of
financial advisers who need to comply with MAS requirement to possess the requisite
knowledge to advise or sell Collective Investment Schemes.
[Version 1.3]
Preface
ii
[Version 1.3]
Preface
Chapter 5: Discusses the basics of time value of money and the various calculation
methods involved in determining present and future value of a single sum.
Chapter 8: Discusses the various types of unit trusts and the common investment
strategies for unit trusts. It also discusses the innovative unit trust
schemes, such as the capital guaranteed fund and the capital
protected fund, as well as investment trusts, REITs and business trusts.
This fourth edition contains changes to the existing text that will simplify and clarify
key terms and concepts. Additionally, there are new contents on developments in the
industry, as well as new products and services available in the market place.
While every effort has been made to ensure that these Study Guide materials are
accurate and up-to-date at the time of publishing, some information may become
outdated before the next revision of this Study Guide. As such, a new version of the
Study Guide may be issued whenever necessary, to update and reflect any changes to
the information. Such changes will be captured in the Version Control page on the last
page of the Study Guide.
Preface
[Version 1.3]
iii
Acknowledgement
Karine Kam
Executive Director
Singapore College of Insurance
September 2011
iv
[Version 1.3]
Several study aids have been included in each chapter to help readers to master and
apply the information in the Study Guide.
Chapter Outline And Key Learning Points
An outline of the chapter is provided on the first page of each chapter, after which the
key learning points are listed to help readers gain an overview of the chapters contents
and the expected learning outcomes to be achieved.
Revisions And Updates
With the implementation of the e-book Study Guide, any revisions and updates will
be updated in the Study Guide accordingly. SCI will send an e-mail alert to any
candidate who is affected by the revisions or updates. Please ensure that you have
updated your latest e-mail address with SCI. Do refer to the SCI Website
(www.scicollege.org.sg/ebook.asp) for the latest version of the e-book and the
effective date of the changes before sitting for the examination.
NB:
Throughout this study guide, where applicable, we have used the masculine
gender to represent both genders, in order to avoid the tedium of the continual
use of he or she, his or her or himself or herself.
[Version 1.3]
vi
[Version 1.3]
Table of Contents
PREFACE ........................................................................................................................ i
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv
STUDY GUIDE FEATURES ............................................................................................ v
TABLE OF CONTENTS .................................................................................vi
[Version 1.3]
vii
Table of Contents
viii
[Version 1.3]
Table of Contents
[Version 1.3]
ix
Table of Contents
7. Diversification
7.1 Dollar Cost Averaging
7.2 Market Timing
8. Investment Style Of Fund Manager
Table of Contents
[Version 1.3]
Chapter
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1. Introduction
2. Financial Assets
equity investments
unit trusts
life insurance
annuities
1. INTRODUCTION
Real assets consist of land, buildings, machines, workers
and commodities that are used to produce goods and
services for the economy. The investment and creation of
real assets lead to improvement in the standard of living,
as there will be more goods and services available for
everyone.
Apart from real assets, investments can be made up of a
whole spectrum of financial assets (also known as paper
assets or capital market securities) consisting of stocks, bonds, etc. They channel
funds from the savings segment of society to the investing segment of society. We
can view financial assets as the means by which investors hold their claim on real
assets. For example, when we hold shares of DBS, we hold a share of all its net
assets.
The value of financial assets should reflect the fundamental value of the real assets
that it would represent over the longer term. However, in the short term, this may
not necessarily be the case. For example, during periods of extreme optimism, the
value of financial assets tends to appreciate much faster than the value of the real
assets that it represents. This is what we call a financial market bubble. On the
other hand, in times of uncertainty when the level of risk aversion rises, the value of
financial assets may collapse. Through this alternating process of boom and bust,
the excesses of financial market are corrected, and the value of financial assets is
brought into alignment with the long-term fundamental value of the real assets.
In general, inflationary pressure will rise if the value of financial assets rises faster
than the true and underlying value of real assets. Hence, in order to enjoy low
inflation and strong growth in real assets, rises in financial assets must be matched
by real growth, rather than excessive expectation about the growth.
2.
FINANCIAL ASSETS
In this section, we will discuss the following main categories of financial assets,
namely cash and their equivalent, money market instruments, fixed income
securities and long-term debt instruments, followed by the coverage of equity
investments, unit trusts, life insurance and annuity products in the next few
sections.
In the next chapter, we will introduce alternative classes of financial assets starting
with financial derivatives. We will then round it off with discussions on real estate
investment and structured products.
2.1 Cash And Equivalent, And Money Market Instruments
To satisfy the need to make transactions and to have readily accessible money
in case of an emergency, many individuals use instruments that are known as
cash equivalent. Typically, cash equivalent either has no specified maturity
date, or has one that is one year or less in the future. The first major purpose
for using cash equivalent is ready access to the investment principal because
of the liquid nature of the investment, which allows cash to be readily
available should the need arise. This may also be due to the investors
overriding concern for the safety of the principal. A second purpose for using
cash equivalent is that it serves as a receptacle for accumulating funds to
purchase other investment assets in an amount that meets the minimum
purchase requirement, or minimises the per unit transaction acquisition cost
(such as buying a round lot of 1,000 shares of a
publicly traded stock, to avoid higher per share price).
Finally, a third use of cash equivalent is when
investors, uncertain about the direction of the
economy or prices of investment alternatives, place
moneys in these instruments until such time as they
can determine, the direction of the economy or prices
of potential investments. This becomes a temporary
instrument and parking place for investors to switch
out from some other investments. However,
investments in this category often provide only a
modest current income and typically have little or no potential for capital
appreciation.
Money Market Securities or Instruments are similar in nature to cash
equivalent. These are debt instruments issued by governments, financial
institutions and corporations with maturities of less than one year. They
GOVERNMENT
TREASURY
BILLS
INVESTORS
LESS THAN
S$ FACE
VALUE
FACE VALUE
AT MATURITY
10
BONDS
Supra-nationals are entities that are formed by two or more governments through international treaties for
the purpose of promoting economic or social developments for the member countries.
11
12
13
14
that yields increase for longer maturities. The longer the maturity,
the more volatile will be the bond price. Conservative investors tend
to choose securities with shorter maturities, in order to reduce
risks, such as the interest rate risk, default risk and reinvestment
risk. It should be noted that price volatility is not a concern if the
investors intend to hold the bonds till maturity, without trading
them for capital gains, unless owing to emergency needs, they are
forced to sell the bonds before maturity.
2.2.5 Why Invest In Fixed Income Securities?
Bonds and other forms of fixed income securities can be good
investments for investors interested in having the amount of monies at
maturity made known to them and also receive a steady stream of
income. Fixed income securities have long been regarded as good
vehicles for those seeking current income. With fixed income securities,
under normal circumstances, there is a good certainty regarding the
cash flows which an investor will receive. It
should be noted that there is still the presence
of default risks when investing in fixed income
securities, no matter how excellent the credit
rating may be.
In addition, fixed income securities are a
versatile investment vehicle. They can be used
conservatively by those who primarily (or
exclusively) seek high current income to
supplement other income sources. Alternatively, they can be used
aggressively for trading purposes by those who actively seek capital
gains. Since the late 1980s and early 1990s, , bonds have also become
recognised as providing investors with the opportunity to realise capital
gains.
2.2.6 Disadvantages Of Investing In Fixed Income Securities
A major disadvantage of investing in fixed income securities is that the
coupon rate is fixed for the life of the issue and, therefore, cannot move
up over time in response to inflation. Inflation is, therefore, one main
worry for fixed income securities investors, particularly if they are to
creep up to the level of coupon rate, and if the term to maturity of the
15
bond is relatively long. Not only can inflation erode the purchasing
power of the principal portion of the investment, but also can lead to
violent swings and changes in the interest rates, thereby producing
violent swings and changes in the prices of fixed income securities,
which can cause substantial capital losses if they are not held to
maturity, or if such unrealised losses need to be reflected in the
financial accounts.
Unlike ordinary shareholders, buyers of fixed income
securities issued by a company do not participate in the
profits of the company. They also do not have other
shareholder rights, such as that of voting in company
meetings as in the case of shareholders.
Another disadvantage of fixed income securities (particularly in
Singapore) is the inactive and small secondary market. This is not so
much of a concern for ordinary retail investors who tend not to invest in
bonds directly, owing to the large face amounts required for investment
in such instruments. These retail investors invest in fixed income unit
trusts instead, where the initial capital outlay is much smaller.
2.2.7 Housing Loans / Mortgages And Other Types Of Fixed Income
Securities
Apart from the fixed income securities issued by governments and
corporations that we discussed above, there are other types of fixed
income securities which are created through a technique known as
securitisation. A popular instrument that has been securitised frequently
is mortgage loans. In the United States of America (US), the
securitisation of sub-prime mortgage loans during the boom years,
spanning the closing years of 20th century and peaking around 2005 /
2006, was the direct cause of the 2008 / 2009 economic crisis. These
fixed income securities are outside of the scope of this study guide and
will not be discussed.
2.3 Equity Investments
Equity investments represent an ownership position in a business. As such,
they represent a higher risk for the investor than that of the debt investments.
16
Equity Investors Are Entitled To All Residue Claims On The Income And
Assets Of The Corporation, After All Other Creditors Have Been Repaid
In Full.
Unlike bond investors whose returns are contractual in nature, equity
investors are entitled to all residue claims. Hence, equity investors not
only enjoy the success of the corporation, but also stand to lose their
investments if the corporation does badly.
(b)
Indefinite Tenure
Unlike money market or fixed income securities, equity is assumed to
have a perpetual lifespan. Equity need not be repaid because it represents
the capital that owners invest in a corporation.
(c)
Limited Liability
The maximum amount that an equity holder can lose in the event of a
corporate failure is its paid-up capital. If you have bought the share in the
secondary market, your maximum loss is the amount that you have paid
for the shares.
(d)
17
18
19
20
Dividends
Shareholders earn income from the investment in the form of
dividends. Dividends are paid to shareholders out of the
companys profits that are decided by the board of directors.
There is no certainty that the company will make profits and,
thus, no certainty that there will be a dividend. The amount to
be paid will vary with the profits made by the company and the
need of the company for additional
funds. Unlike fixed income securities
whose major drawback is that
inflation reduces the purchasing
power of a fixed stream of funds,
dividends from owning shares on the
other hand, have the potential to
increase as the companys sales and
profits grow.
21
22
23
24
(ii) Diversification
In view of the many risks faced by share investors, it cannot be
stressed enough that diversification of share-holdings is a
better strategy than just investing in a limited number of
stocks. Diversification reduces the risk of loss and the volatility
of an investors share-holdings.
Diversification may mean that a share portfolio includes growth
stocks, income-oriented stocks, blue chip stocks and some
speculative stocks. It is also possible to gain some
diversification by buying shares of a company that is itself
widely diversified in its manufacturing and holding activities.
The investor may also wish to diversify across countries to
reduce the vulnerability of the share portfolio to the economic
fortunes of any one country. A prudent investor may also
diversify his investments over time, so as to offset ups and
downs of the market. One good avenue for diversifying the
investments in equity markets is through the purchase of unit
trusts.
2.4 Unit Trusts
A unit trust is a professionally managed investment fund that pools together
money from investors (called unit-holders), with similar investment objectives
to invest in a portfolio of stocks, fixed income securities or
other financial assets, or some combination of them. It is
also known as Collective Investment Scheme (CIS) locally.
A unit trust investor owns units in the funds being
somewhat similar to shares in a company. Each unit
represents a proportionate ownership in the underlying
securities owned by the unit trust. For example, if there are
1,000,000 units in a unit trust that owns 200,000 shares of Singapore
Airlines and 1,000,000 shares of Venture Corporation, among others, then
each unit will represent 0.2 shares in Singapore Airlines and one share in
Venture Corporation. Unit holders redeem their investment by selling units
back to the fund manager.
25
The Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289) will provide for the MAS to
authorise all collective investment schemes to be offered to the public in
Singapore, for example, the approval of trust deeds and schemes. This deed
enables a trustee (usually a bank) to hold the pool of money and assets in trust
on behalf of the investors. The pool is managed by a third party, namely the
fund manager. The fund manager solely manages the portfolio of investments
and operates the market for the units (i.e. administers the buying and selling of
shares in the unit trust) itself. The unit trust is essentially a three-way
arrangement among investors, the fund manager and the trustee.
Investors who are interested in receiving the benefit of professional portfolio
management, but who do not have sufficient funds and / or time to purchase a
diversified mix of securities will find investing in unit trusts
attractive. They can invest in unit trusts to generate income
in the form of dividends and capital gains.
Investors in Singapore can choose from a wide variety of unit
trusts with different investment objectives. A unit trust may
aim for high income or high capital growth, or a combination.
Some unit trusts invest in specific countries and regions.
It is important that the investment objectives of the unit trust chosen match
those of the investor. Unit trusts are required to state their investment
objectives clearly on the prospectus which every investor should acquire
before buying. The types of assets, which may be bought by the fund
manager, are also specified in the objectives of the unit trust as contained in
the trust deed.
The advantages of investing in unit trusts, the characteristics of unit trusts,
and different types of unit trusts are discussed in detail and in-depth in
Chapters 7 and 8 of this study guide.
26
27
28
29
30
31
Chapter
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
An Introduction To Financial Derivatives
Real Estate Investment
Structured Products
32
structured products
1.
INTRODUCTION
Besides traditional investment assets as mentioned in the previous chapter,
investors have the option of investing in alternative classes of assets. They are
financial derivatives, real estate investment and structured products.
2.
can
The
the
will
(b) Speculation
Financial derivatives have a reputation of being risky. They can be tremendously
risky in the hands of un-informed traders. However, their risks are not
necessarily evil, because they provide very powerful instruments for
33
34
2.1 Options
In general, an option is a formal contract between a seller (the optioner) and a
buyer (the optionee) on the right (but not the obligation) to buy-and-sell (or to
buy-or-sell) a specific property or a fixed-quantity of a commodity, currency, or
security, at a fixed price (called exercise price) on or up to a fixed date (called
expiration date). Optionee generally pays a small sum of money (called
premium or option money) for the contract, thus
obtaining an investment leverage.
In other words, instead of buying a security outright, an
investor can buy a right to purchase or sell a security at a
future date. This is called an option. Note that option is
not issued by the company, but by investors seeking to
trade in claims (buy or sell) on the asset / security.
An option to buy (called call option) is purchased when prices are expected to
rise, an option to sell (called put option) when prices are expected to fall, and
an option to buy-or-sell (called double option) when prices may go either way.
Option prices are directly tied to the prices of the security which they apply.
The life of an option may vary, but the common duration adopted are three,
six and nine months. Over-the-counter options can also be bought by
institutions for longer periods, from one to five years.
The most popular types of options are named American option (exercisable any
day up to the expiration date) and European option (exercisable only on the
expiration date). Any option that is not exercised before the expiry date is
automatically cancelled, and the optionee loses the premium. In practice, only
a few options are exercised and most are bought from or sold to other
optioners or optionees before the expiration date. Since options are legally
binding contracts, they have intrinsic values (which is the difference between
market price and strike price of the option) and are freely traded on the futures
exchanges. A futures exchange refers to a central marketplace where futures
contracts and options on futures contracts are traded.
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
Futures contracts are cash-settled when the underlying assets are intangible, such as stock index.
Market Margin (MTM margin) on the other hand is the margin collected to
offset losses (if any) that have already been incurred on the positions held by a
firm. This is computed as the difference between the cost of the position held
and the current market value of that position.
In summary, a futures contract is one, where a buyer and seller are obligated
to buy or sell an asset, within a specified time period, at a specified price.
They differ from options in that there is an obligation to transact, regardless of
future price movement. In contrast, futures contracts cannot lapse, and their
holders have to sell them before their expiration date, or take delivery of the
underlying item.
2.4.1 Why Buy Futures?
Index futures enable investors to protect their investments, by taking
positions in the futures market to protect the gains that they have made
in the cash market. An investor may also wish to engage in speculative
trading. The investor takes on price fluctuation risks in order to have a
chance at making large gains. However, before an investor ventures
into investing in future contracts, he must have a clear understanding of
the concept of hedging, and of the amount of gain or loss that can
result from any change in the price of the index futures contract.
Finally, by making an offsetting trade, taking delivery of goods, or
arranging for an exchange of goods, futures contracts can be closed.
Hedgers often trade futures for the purpose of
keeping price risk in check. Speculators on futures
price fluctuations not intending to make or take
ultimate delivery must take care to "zero their
positions" before the expiry of the contracts. After
expiry, each contract will be settled, either by
physical
delivery
(typically
for
commodity
underlyings), or by a cash settlement (typically for financial
underlyings).
The contracts ultimately are not between the original buyer and the
original seller, but between the holders at expiry and the stock
exchange. As a contract may pass through many hands after it is
43
created by its initial purchase and sale, settling parties generally do not
know with whom they have ultimately traded.
2.5
Swaps
A swap is a derivative in which two counterparties exchange certain benefits
of one party's financial instrument with those of the other party's financial
instrument. The benefits in question depend on the type of financial
instruments involved. Specifically, the two counterparties agree to exchange
one stream of cash flows against another stream. These streams are called the
legs of the swap. The swap agreement defines the dates when the cash flows
are to be paid and the way they are calculated. Usually at the time when the
contract is initiated, at least one of these series of
cash flows is determined by a random or uncertain
variable, such as an interest rate, foreign exchange
rate, equity price or commodity price.
The cash flows are calculated over a notional principal
amount, which is usually not exchanged between the
counterparties. Consequently, swaps can be used to
create unfunded exposures to an underlying asset, since counterparties can
earn the profit or suffer the loss from movements in price, without having to
post the notional amount in cash or collateral.
Swaps can be used to hedge certain risks, such as interest rate risk, or to
speculate on changes in the expected direction of prices of underlying
securities. The first swaps were produced in the early 1980s. Today, swaps
are among the most heavily traded financial contracts in the world.
It is noted that with swaps, exchange of cash flows can happen between a
number of different asset classes. Also, the cash flows can arise from asset,
some liability, or some payment streams.
Common types of swaps include:
Currency swap: simultaneous buying and selling of a currency to convert
debt principal from the lender's currency to the debtor's currency;
44
Futures
A standardised,
transferable,
exchange-traded
contract between
two partiesfutures contract
giving the holder
the obligation to
make or take
delivery under the
terms of the
contract.
Swaps
A derivative in
which two
counterparties
exchange certain
benefits (cash
flows) of one
party's financial
instrument for
those (the cash
flows) of the
other party's
financial
instrument.
45
46
Futures
Clear
understanding of
hedging and
amount of gain or
loss owing to
change in price of
futures contract
is necessary;
cash flows
needed to
maintain margin
account under
volatile market
conditions.
Swaps
Obligated to carry
out the terms of
the contract till
completion.
Swaps
Failure of
counterparty to
carry out the
exchange of cash
flows owing to
failure or
insolvency; can
be hedged by the
use of credit
default swaps.
Futures
Leverage: Yes
Swaps
Leverage: Yes
Expiry: Yes,
when the term
for the exchange
of cash flows is
completed.
Warrants
By corporations /
issuers to
promote the sale
of preferred
shares or
issuance of
bonds.
Futures
Financial futures
are extensively
used in the
hedging of
interest rate
swaps; also by
speculators who
seek to make a
profit by
predicting market
movements.
Swaps
Used to hedge
interest rate risk
(interest rate
swaps), credit
default risk
(credit swaps),
speculate on
changes in
expected
direction of prices
of underlying
securities:
(commodity
swaps and equity
swaps).
47
48
Futures
Yes, to minimise
credit risk,
traders must post
an initial margin
or a performance
bond, typically
5% to 15% of
the contract
value; and
marked to market
daily by
maintenance
margin.
Swaps
Not Applicable.
Futures
Mercantile
exchange /
futures exchange.
Swaps
OTC or
mercantile
exchange /
futures exchange.
Futures
By physical
delivery (common
with commodities
and bonds) or
cash settlement.
Swaps
By proper
exchange of cash
flows until the
completion of the
term.
3.
49
Negative cash flow for highly leveraged investors. This is due to the fact that
rentals can be lower than mortgage servicing costs.
3.3 Risks Of Borrowing To Invest In Property / Real Estate
Highly leveraged property investing, which makes it possible for investors to
earn big gains on a small amount of capital, also has many pitfalls. Property
values can go down, as well as up, very quickly over a relatively short period
of time. It is important for the investor to select the property carefully. He
must be able to anticipate a rising market owing to lower interest rates, or
high inflation rates, before engaging in highly leveraged property investing.
4.
STRUCTURED PRODUCTS
A structured product is generally a pre-packaged investment strategy involving
derivatives, a single or a basket of securities, options, indices, commodities, debt
issuances and / or foreign currencies, and to a lesser extent,
swaps. The variety of products just described is demonstrative of
the fact that there is no single, uniform definition of a structured
product.
These products have a fixed maturity, and have two components,
namely a note and a derivative. The derivative component is often
an option. The note provides for periodic interest payments to the
investor at a predetermined rate, and the derivative component
provides for the payment at maturity. Some products use the
derivative component as a put option written by the investor that
gives the buyer of the put option the right to sell to the investor
the security or securities at a predetermined price. Other products
use the derivative component to provide for a call option written by the investor that
gives the buyer of the call option the right to buy the security or securities from the
investor at a predetermined price.
4.1 Features
A feature of some structured products is a "capital guaranteed" function, which
offers return of principal if held to maturity. For example, an investor invests
51
S$100; the issuer simply invests in a risk-free bond that has sufficient interest to
grow to S$100 (at the end of the maturity period). This bond may cost S$80
today, and over the product term, it will grow to S$100. With the leftover funds,
the issuer purchases the options and swaps needed to perform the necessary
investment strategy. Theoretically, an investor can just do these themselves, but
the costs and transaction volume requirements of many options and swaps are
beyond many individual investors.
US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Rule 434 (regarding certain
prospectus deliveries) defines structured securities as "securities whose cash
flow characteristics depend upon one or more indices or that have embedded
forwards or options or securities where an investor's investment return and the
issuer's payment obligations are contingent on, or highly sensitive to, changes in
the value of underlying assets, indices, interest rates or cash flows." What this is
saying is that such structured products are quite complex, and are generally
speaking, not for the ordinary investors, nor the faint-hearted.
4.2 How Structured Products Are Manufactured?
Combinations of derivatives and financial instruments create structures that have
significant risk / return and / or cost savings profiles that may not be otherwise
achievable in the marketplace. Structured products are designed
to provide investors with highly targeted investments tied to
their specific risk profiles, return requirements and market
expectations.
CDO
These products are created through the process of financial
engineering, i.e., by combining underlyings like shares, bonds,
indices or commodities with derivatives. The value of derivative
securities, such as options, forwards and swaps, is determined by (respectively,
derives from) the prices of the underlying securities.
The market for derivative securities has grown quickly in recent years. The main
reason for this lies in the economic function of derivatives. It enables the transfer
of risk, for a fee, from those who do not want to bear it, to those who are willing
to bear risk.
52
53
54
the interest payments are determined by some type of formula tied to the
movement of interest rate, stock, stock index, commodity, or currency.
Although structured notes are derivatives, they often do not include an
option, forward or futures contract.
(e) Credit-linked Notes and Deposits: They are a form of funded credit
derivative. They are structured as a security with an embedded credit default
swap, allowing the issuer to transfer a specific credit risk to credit investors.
The issuer is not obligated to repay the debt if a specified event occurs. This
eliminates a third-party insurance provider.
(f) Market-linked Notes and Deposits: These are structured products linked to a
certain or a basket of market indices.
4.5 Risks With The Structured Products
Structured products tend to be quite complex owing to the fact that financial
derivatives and swap arrangements / counterparties are involved.
The risks associated with many structured products, especially those products
that present risks of loss of principal owing to market movements, are similar to
those risks involved with options and financial derivatives. The potential for
serious risks involved with options trading are well-established, and as a result of
those risks, customers must be explicitly approved for options trading. In the
same vein, FINRA (the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc, which is a
private corporation that acts as a self-regulatory organisation in the US) suggests
that firms "consider" whether purchasers of some or all
structured products be required to go through a similar
approval process, so that only accounts approved for options
trading will also be approved for some or all structured
products.
In the case of so-called "principal protected" products, they are
not insured by the government authority. They may only be
insured by the issuer, and thus have the potential for loss of
the principal in the case of a liquidity crisis, or other solvency problems with the
issuing company (the problems with the Mini Bond series, etc. in the 2008 /
2009 global recession could not be a better example of how risky such
55
structured products could be). The term capital protected and principal
protected had been prohibited by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)
under the Revised Code on Collective Investment Schemes.
56
3. Financial Markets
Chapter
FINANCIAL MARKETS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Bond Market
Equity Market
Derivative Market
Over-The-Counter (OTC) Market
Characteristics Of An Efficient Financial Market
Forms Of Market Efficiency
Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
57
1.
INTRODUCTION
A financial market provides a mechanism for the trading of financial assets. It
facilitates the means for the segments of the economy with surpluses to invest
these surpluses in corporations or governments requiring funds. It
is the heart of the global financial system, attracting and allocating
savings and setting / influencing interest rates and prices of
financial assets (stocks, bonds, etc.).
In terms of what it does / achieves, a Financial Market is a market
that facilitates the exchange of capital and credit. It includes the
money market and the capital markets.
A Money Market is a market for short-term debt securities, such as banker's
acceptances, commercial paper, repos, negotiable certificates of deposit, and
Treasury Bills with a maturity of one year or less (often 30 days or less). Money
market securities / instruments are generally very safe investments which return a
relatively low interest rate. Hence, these are most appropriate for temporary cash
storage or for short-term time horizon. The spreads between bid and ask yields on
the securities are relatively small owing to the large size and high liquidity of the
market.
Capital Market is a market where debt or equity securities are traded.
Financial markets may be classified in the following three ways depending on how
the securities are traded. They are Primary Market, Secondary Market and Over-TheCounter (OTC) Market.
1.1 Primary Market For Newly Issued Financial Assets And Secondary Market For
Others
The primary market is one where new issues of financial assets are sold.
Examples of new issues include initial public offers for equities, tender of
government bonds and offers of new fixed income securities. The issuers of
these securities receive funds from investors who then become owners of the
newly issued financial assets. In the primary market, the security is purchased
directly from the issuer.
58
3. Financial Markets
The secondary market is one where trading takes place for financial assets. It
is a market where an investor purchases a security from another investor
rather than the issuer, subsequent to the original issuance in the primary
market. It is also called aftermarket. The secondary market provides the
liquidity necessary for the proper functioning of the primary market. Investors
will be more hesitant to purchase financial assets in the primary market if they
cannot divest them readily in the secondary market. If the financial assets can
be easily traded in the secondary market, it encourages a vibrant primary
market. When trading takes place, the ownership of these assets changes
hands. However, no new funds are raised for the original issuers of these
assets. Hence, the secondary market serves a very important function, in that
it allows and facilitates the orderly and timely transfer of assets and wealth
between different segments of the investment community.
Examples of secondary markets include formal centralised
exchanges and Over-The-Counter (OTC) markets. OTC can be
used to refer to stocks that are traded via a dealer network as
opposed to on a centralised exchange. It also refers to debt
securities and other financial instruments such as derivatives,
which are traded through a dealer network.
1.2 Types Of Financial Claims
Claims in financial assets may be a fixed amount, a residual amount or may be
dependent on an underlying asset. If the claim is for a fixed amount, the
financial market in which such assets are traded is known as a debt or fixed
income / bond market. Financial assets with fixed amount of claims on the
issuers, such as money market instruments and fixed income securities are
traded here. Equities are assets with a residual claim on the issuers. The
financial market in which equities are traded is known as an equity market.
Finally, the derivative market is where trading of derivatives takes place. The
claim of derivatives is dependent on the value of an underlying asset.
1.3 Types Of Maturities
The financial market for short-dated financial assets is called the money
market. They have maturities of less than one year. The financial market for
longer-dated financial assets is called the capital market. Assets traded on the
59
capital market have maturities of more than one year. Thus, the debt market
can be considered a money market or capital market depending on the
maturities of the assets. Equities are perpetual assets and are thus traded in
the capital market.
2.
BOND MARKET
Bond market (also known as the debt, credit, or fixed income market) is a financial
market where participants buy and sell debt securities, usually in the form of bonds.
Nearly all of the US$923 billion average daily trading volume (as at early 2007) in
the US bond market takes place between broker-dealers and large institutions in a
decentralised, over-the-counter (OTC) market. However, there is a small number of
bonds, primarily corporate listed on the stock exchanges. The New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) is the largest centralised bond market, representing mostly
corporate bonds.
References to the "bond market" usually refer to the government bond market,
because of its size, liquidity, lack of credit risk and, therefore, sensitivity to the
interest rates. Because of the typically inverse relationship between bond valuation
and interest rates, the bond market is often used to indicate changes in the interest
rates or the shape of the yield curve.
Owing to its status as the worlds reserve currency, the US$ bond market is the
largest in the world. Both the US government, its corporate and non-US entities
regularly issue bonds to refinance maturing bonds or to raise new funds. As at
2010, the amounts outstanding on the global bond market is estimated at US$95
trillion, and the US was one of the largest market in terms of the value of bonds
outstanding.
The US government is the worlds largest issuer of bonds. These
are usually issued through an auction where dealers submit
competitive bids. Trading of bonds is typically done over the
counter through bond dealers, comprising mainly commercial banks
and investment banks. US government securities are the most
liquid fixed income securities in the secondary market.
60
3. Financial Markets
The Eurobond market is a very important source of funding for issuers raising
foreign currency debts. Eurobonds refer to bonds denominated in any foreign
currency issued to the investors. Owing to the global distribution of investors and
dealers, the dealing and settlement procedures for Eurobonds are governed by an
international association, which is known as the International Capital Market
Association (ICMA). [Note: ICMA was formed in July 2005 following the merger of
the International Securities Market Association (ISMA) and the International Primary
Market Association (IPMA)]. ICMA is a self-regulated trade association that plays an
active role in the capital markets by influencing the
financial regulations in Europe. Based out of Zurich,
Switzerland, ICMA now has grown to include more than
400 members across 50 countries.
The Singapore dollar bond market is relatively less
developed as compared to other more developed
countries. This is due to the restrictions imposed on
trading of Singapore dollars, the lack of issuers, and the
small financial market. However, the authorities have been working to change this.
They have relaxed certain rules to vitalise the Singapore dollar bond market. The
public sector, including the statutory boards (such as the Housing & Development
Board, Jurong Town Corporation and Land and Transport Authority), is now a
regular issuer of bonds. The restrictions on internationalisation of the Singapore
dollars have also been relaxed to allow some foreign entities to issue bonds under
certain conditions. For example, in 1998, the MAS revised its guidelines to allow
foreign entities of good credit standing to issue S$ denominated bonds, provided
that they swapped the S$ proceeds into foreign currency. This has boosted the
development of the Singapore bond market.
3.
EQUITY MARKET
An equity market or stock market is a public market for the trading of securities,
including company stock and derivatives listed on a stock exchange, as well as
those traded only privately. A stock exchange refers to any organisation, association
or group which provides or maintains a marketplace, where securities, options,
futures, or commodities can be traded. It specialises in the business of bringing
buyers and sellers of securities together. The major stock market in the United
States is the New York Stock Exchange, while in Canada, it is the Toronto Stock
61
Exchange. Major European examples of stock exchanges include the London Stock
Exchange (largest in Europe), Paris Bourse, and Deutsche Brse. Asian examples
include the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Hong Kong Stock
Exchange, and Bombay Stock Exchange. Shanghai has just overtaken Tokyo in
2009 as Asia's biggest and busiest stock market by value of shares traded, after
activity doubled there year on year.
Equities and other equity-linked derivatives, such as warrants and preferred stocks
are traded on the equity markets. Equity markets can be differentiated by their size,
liquidity, trading and settlement system, and the restrictions on foreign participation.
The worlds largest equity market is the US stock
market, accounting for about half the total market
capitalisation of the total world equities. The size of the
world stock market was estimated at about US$36.6
trillion at the beginning of October 2008. The total world
derivatives market has been estimated at about US$791
trillion face or notional value at 11 times the size of the
entire world economy. The value of the derivatives
market, because it is stated in terms of notional values, cannot be directly compared
to a stock or a fixed income security, which traditionally refers to an actual value.
Moreover, the vast majority of derivatives cancel each other out (i.e., a derivative
bet on an event occurring is generally offset by a comparable derivative 'bet' on
the event not occurring). Many such relatively illiquid securities are valued as
marked to model, rather than an actual market price. Note that the notional value is
the value of a derivative's underlying assets at the spot price. In the case of an
options or futures contract, this is the number of units of an asset underlying the
contract, multiplied by the spot price of the asset.
Liquidity is the trading volume of equities in the market. It is related to the size of
the market, as well as the percentage of free-float shares. A free-float share is the
portion of the corporate total issued shares that is not locked up by strategic and
long-term investors. Liquidity is an important criterion for large funds when deciding
if the particular equity market is investable.
The trading and settlement system differs from one market to another. Most equity
markets today have an electronic settlement system. This is a more efficient system
when compared to the previous scrip-based settlement system. In some markets,
62
3. Financial Markets
such as Taiwan, the use of electronic settlement also allows trades done to be
settled by the following day.
Some equity markets, such as Thailand, still maintain a system of restricting foreign
participation in the market by imposing a shareholding limit on foreigners. In
Thailand, the Foreign Board, set up in 1987 is to serve as an alternative board for
foreign investors seeking ownership of the securities which they invest in and to
register such shares under their own names. There are foreign ownership limits as
set forth in the Articles of Association of each listed company.
In other markets, such as Taiwan, Korea and India, foreign investors wanting to
trade in the equity market have to obtain prior approval before trading can begin. For
example, investors belonging to foreign countries other than few neighbouring
countries are barred from investing through the Indian Stock Exchanges in India.
However, there are ways to get around it, through the use of say, ADRs (American
Depository Receipts) and GDR (Global Depository Receipts) issued in foreign markets
by companies operating in India, and through investment in mutual funds.
Like several emerging stock markets, the Taiwan stock market historically set
several limitations on foreign investment. However, with the growth of the Taiwans
stock market and the development of sounder systems, the government has
gradually relaxed these limitations on foreign investors. Since 1 October 2003, the
review process for investment by foreign investors in the stock market has been
changed from the permit system to the registration system.
This has consequently simplified the application procedures for
foreign investment in the Taiwans stock market.
Under the registration system in Taiwan, foreign investors are
required to register with the Taiwan Stock Exchange so as to
obtain an Investor ID and Tax ID simultaneously, before
opening a trading account with a local securities firm.
For South Korea, foreign portfolio investors now enjoy good access to the Korea's
stock markets. Aggregate foreign investment ceilings in the Korean Stock Exchange
(KSE) were abolished in 1998, and foreign investors owned 32.9 percent of KSE
stocks and 10.3 percent of the KOSDAQ as of 2010.
63
3.1
64
3. Financial Markets
DERIVATIVE MARKET
The derivative market relates to the trading of options, futures and other derivatives.
It is experiencing tremendous growth as more derivatives are being introduced.
Futures exchanges, such as Euronext.liffe and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange
(CME) in the US, trade in standardised derivative contracts. These are options
contracts and futures contracts on a whole range of underlying products. The
members of the exchange hold positions in these contracts with the exchange,
which acts as a central counterparty. When one party goes long
(buys) on a futures contract, another goes short (sells). When a
new contract is introduced, the total position in the contract is
zero. Therefore, the sum of all the long positions must be equal
to the sum of all the short positions. In other words, risk is
transferred from one party to another. The total notional amount
of all the outstanding positions at the end of June 2004 stood at
US$53 trillion. That figure grew to US$81 trillion by the end of
March 2008.
Tailor-made derivatives not traded on a futures exchange are traded on over-thecounter markets (the OTC market). These consist of investment banks which have
traders who make markets in these derivatives, and clients, such as hedge funds,
commercial banks, government sponsored enterprises, etc. Products that are always
traded over-the-counter are swaps, forward rate agreements, forward contracts,
credit derivatives, etc. The total notional amount of all the outstanding positions at
the end of June 2004 stood at US$220 trillion. By the end of 2007, that figure had
risen to US$596 trillion.
65
Established in 1973, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) is the largest US
options exchange. With annual trading volume that hovered around one billion
contracts at the end of 2007, CBOE offers options on over 2,200 companies, 22
stock indexes, and 140 exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In the US, apart from CBOE, another established exchange for the
trading of futures and options is the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).
As of July 2007, the CBOT merged with the CME to form the CME
Group. Futures and options are traded on the floor of exchanges,
such as using a system of open outcry. Under this system, a pit
trader offers to buy or sell futures contracts at a certain price, while
other pit traders are free to transact with him if they wish. The
clearing house acts as an intermediary between the buyers and the
sellers. It guarantees that all contract obligations will be honoured. In
Singapore, the derivative exchange is the SGX Derivatives Trading
(SGX-DT).
4.1
66
3. Financial Markets
house of SMX and will handle clearing, settlement and risk management
functions. SMXCC will be a Central Counterparty for trades executed on the
SMX trading platform between the buyer and the seller. In order to protect
market participants from counterparty credit risk, SMXCC will have in place a
Settlement Guarantee Fund. Non-performance by any one party will not affect
the other party, as SMXCC will step in and fulfil obligations of the defaulting
party through the Settlement Guarantee Fund. Guaranteed performance on
SMX products will provide immense confidence to market participants as
counterparty risk will be eliminated. This process ensures market integrity.
As a significant milestone, SMX announced on 2 December 2009 that it had
received in-principle regulatory clearance from MAS to operate the first PanAsian, multi-product commodity derivatives exchange.
5.
67
Instruments such as bonds do not trade on a formal exchange. Therefore, they are
also considered as OTC securities. Most debt instruments are traded by investment
banks making markets for specific issues. If an investor wants to buy or sell a
bond, he must call the bank that makes the market in that bond, and asks for
quotes.
6.
Availability Of Information
It is important to make available all information, such as corporate
announcements, price history and all outstanding bids and offers to all
investors. Such information will enable investors to make informed investment
decisions. The use of the Internet has greatly enhanced the availability of
information.
68
3. Financial Markets
6.2
Liquidity
Liquidity is the ability of investors to buy and sell a security quickly and at a
price that is not substantially different from the prevailing prices. The prerequisites of liquidity are marketability, price continuity and depth.
Marketability is a securitys likelihood of being sold quickly. Price continuity
indicates that prices do not change much from one transaction to the next,
unless there is new price-sensitive information. Implicitly in price continuity is
the existence of market depth, which means that there are numerous buyers
and sellers willing to trade at prices above and below current prices, thus
preventing drastic price movements.
6.3
Transaction Cost
The transaction cost relating to a trade includes
brokerages, clearing fees and the associated stamp
duties. The current trend has been towards a lower
transaction cost. In some markets, stamp duties
have been abolished to foster a vibrant financial
market. A low transaction cost indicates that the
financial market is internally efficient.
6.4
Information Efficiency
This is also known as external efficiency. It means that prices adjust rapidly to
new information. The institutionalisation of the financial market contributes to
this efficiency. Institutionalisation of a financial market refers to the increased
participation in the financial market by institutional investors. Their
participation has greatly enhanced the information efficiency of the markets.
7.
69
which trade on historical price data or other historical information. The EMH will
in no way imply that the expected return of a security is zero.
Semi-strong Form: The semi-strong form encompasses the
weak form of the EMH. In this form, the price reflects quickly
all publicly known information and data. These data may
include
earning
reports,
dividends,
new
product
development, financing difficulties, etc. No excess return can
be generated by using strategies which trade on such public
information and data.
Strong Form: The strong form encompasses both the weak
and semi-strong form of the EMH. In this form, the price fully reflects all public
and non-public information and data. In this form, nobody should be able to earn
superior returns over a reasonable period of time by using publicly available
information in a superior manner. This also applies to all non-public information,
including information that may be restricted to certain groups, such as
specialists on the exchanges.
8.
70
3. Financial Markets
take into account how each of the assets price would change relative to every
other asset in the portfolio.
The theory goes on to state that, given an investor's preferred level of risk, a
particular portfolio can be constructed to maximise an expected return for that level
of risk. MPT assumes that investors are risk adverse, meaning investors will always
select a less risky portfolio, when comparing two portfolios which offer the same
expected return.
71
Chapter
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Measures Of Return
Measures Of Risk
Risk Aversion
Risk And Return Trade-Off
Sources Of Investment Risk
Classification Of Risks
Diversification Reduces Risks
Risk-Adjusted Investment Returns
Required Rate Of Return And Jensens Alpha (Measure) Under The Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM)
Appendix 4A
72
1.
MEASURES OF RETURN
Investment is the act of postponing present consumption in
order to grow your savings. The higher the growth rate of the
investment, the more successful you are as an investor. In
order to know the growth rate of an investment, we need to
know how investment returns are calculated. The calculation
of investment returns depends on whether it is a single-period
investment or a multi-period investment.
A single-period investment is an investment that is only held for one period, which is
usually less than a year. A multi-period investment is an investment that is held for
more than one period, which is usually defined as a year.
1.1 Calculating Single-Period Investment Return
You invest S$1,000 in a unit trust at the beginning of a period and that
investment paid a dividend of S$50 during your holding period. At the end of
your holding period, the market value of that unit trust is S$1,100. What is
your return for the period in percentage terms?
(Capital gain+Dividend)
Initial investment
X 100
Capital gain refers to the appreciation in the price of the unit trust or any
investment asset. Dividend refers to the distribution made to unit-holders
during the holding period.
When the asset is sold to cash in on the capital gains, the profit achieved
(equal to the excess of the market value sold over the price) is referred to as
realised capital gains. In the example above, realised capital gain amounts to
S$100 if the asset is sold for S$1,100. It should be clear that when the
investment is not sold, the profit is not yet realised, and the return calculated
using the above formula is not meaningful and should be viewed as such.
Capital loss refers to the depreciation in the price of the unit trust. When the
asset is sold for a loss, equal to the depreciation in the price, the capital loss
73
becomes realised. Using the above example, if the price falls to S$900, the
unrealised capital loss amounts to S$100. Now if the asset is sold for S$900,
the capital loss of S$100 is realised.
It should be clear that if the investor has holding power and
does not have to sell the investment when there are
unrealised capital losses, the unrealised capital losses are just
paper loss. If the market were to improve in the future, to the
extent that the unrealised capital loss were fully reversed, the
investor would not have experienced realised capital loss if
the investment were to be sold subsequently.
In the above example, the realised capital gain
Investment return =
= S$1,100 - S$1,000
= S$100
(S$100 + S$50)
X 100
S$1,000
S$150
S$1,000
) X 100
= 15%
Another way of calculating single period investment return (%) is given in
the formula below:
[ (
-1
[ (
X 100
= 15%
The investment return calculated above is also known as the simple rate of
return over the single investment period. This is different from the compound
rate of return as explained in the following section.
74
Note that n may be fractional or integral. For example, if the holding period
is one year, n=1. If the holding period is 5 months, n=5/12; and if the
holding period is one month, n= 1/12.
Assume that the following two funds can achieve the returns during the
holding periods:
Table 4.1 Returns Of Fund A And Fund B During Their Holding Period
Return (%)
Holding Period
Fund A
15
1 year
Fund B
6 months
75
With reference to Table 4.1, the annualised return for both funds can
be calculated as follows:
Fund A = [(1 + 0.15)1/1 - 1] X 100
= (1.15 1) X 100
= 15.00%
76
0.95
(5.0)
1.02
7.4
1.12
9.8
1.10
(1.8)
1.25
13.6
[(
) ]
The mean rate of return during the 5-year period is defined as the effective
annual rate of return, which when compounded over the 5-year period, gives
us a cumulative return of 25% in Year 5 (in the above example).
One simple way of estimating the mean rate of return would be to add the
yearly returns in the rightmost column of Table 4.2 and divide that by 5, as
follows:
[(-5%) + 7.4% + 9.8% + (-1.8%) + 13.6%]
5
X 100 =
24%
= 4.8%
5
This approach of estimating the mean rate of return is also known as the
arithmetic mean rate of return (AM). However, the AM does not present an
accurate annual compounded rate of return of the investment over the 5-year
period. If we use 4.8% as the compounded rate of return for our investment,
the value will be:
S$1,000 (1 + 0.048)5 = S$1,264
The value of the investment in Year 5 using 4.8% as the compounded rate of
return is S$1,264. This is slightly more than the actual value of the investment
at S$1,250. This shows that 4.8% is not the exact and true effective
compounded rate of return over the 5-year investment holding period.
An accurate and exact calculation of the historical return will be to annualise
the cumulative return of 25% as follows:
[(1 + 0.25) 1/5 - 1] X 100 = (1.0456 1) X 100 = 4.56%
Using 4.56% as the compounded rate of return, the initial investment of
S$1,000 will grow to S$1,250 as follows:
S$1,000 (1 + 0.0456)5 = S$1,250
77
The above example assumes that we are given information on the prices of the
fund at the beginning and at the end of the multi-period. It further assumes
that these prices have not been adjusted for bonus issues or dividends. Hence,
it is more common for us to calculate the (estimated) mean rate of return,
using the yearly change in the fund values in percentage terms (right most
column of Table 4.2). Under such circumstances, we have to geometrically
link each return to obtain the annual effective rate of return. This is known as
the geometric mean rate of return (GM), or the time-weighted mean rate of
return.
GM (%) = {[(1 + r1) X (1 + r2) X (1 + r3) X X (1 + rn) ]1/n 1} X 100
where r1, r2, r3, , rn
n
In the above example, the geometric mean return on this investment is:
{[(10.05) X (1+0.074) X (1+0.098) X (10.018) X (1+0.136)]1/51} X 100
= {[(0.95) X (1.074) X (1.098) X (0.982) X (1.136)]1/5 1} X 100
= {(1.2497)1/5 1} X 100
= (1.0456 1) X 100
= 4.56%
Geometric mean is a better and more correct measurement of historical
investment return. In fact, it is the compounded rate of return of an
investment, assuming that it is held for more than a year, and that
compounded rate of return is earned throughout that
period. Arithmetic mean, on the other hand, is a
measurement of the expected return over the long
term.
78
Some illustrations will make these points clearer. Consider the following
investment, as shown in Table 4.3:
Table 4.3
Year
Return (%)
50
100
100
100
50
-50
where
AM =
100% = 1
- 50% = - 0.5
(1.0) + (-0.5)
2
0.5
=0.25 = 25%
2
79
Example 4.1
Year
Return (%)
100.0
110.0
10
110.0
121.0
10
121.0
133.1
10
AM =
0.3
=0.1 = 10%
3
80
S$50 + (S$840S$800)
S$800
S$90
S$800
11.25%
If an after-tax basis is desired, the marginal income tax rate (MRT) has to be
taken into account, then the investment return formula becomes:
After-tax
=
Investment Return
] [
If Michael is in the income tax bracket of 20%, then his after-tax return will
be:
After-tax
Investment Return
= 10%
(Note that in Singapore, capital gains are not taxable for individuals. Hence,
there is no tax rate for this investment. For illustration purposes, the current
income refers to a taxable form of dividend and has been reported for
individual income tax)
For holding periods shorter than one year, the investment return as
calculated above requires modification. If, for example, Michael
held the investment for only half a year and achieved the same
results, his after-tax investment return should be multiplied by 2.
This resulted in an annualised after-tax investment return of 20%
(10 x 2). Or, if Michael had achieved his gains in 3 months or in 2
weeks, his annualised investment return would be found by
multiplying the after-tax investment return by 4 or 26, respectively.
81
Inflation has almost been continual over the last 50 years. Therefore any
analysis or recommendation to a client concerning a particular investment
should include inflation as a factor. One useful method adjusts the annual
after-tax rate of return for inflation, and the result is known as the Real Rate of
Return. If the investment return is used, for example, the real after-tax rate of
return can be calculated using the following formula:
Real After-tax
Rate of Return
(1 +0.08)
(1 + 0.04)
= 1.038 1
= 3.8%
Whenever the rate of inflation exceeds the after-tax rate of
return obtained over a holding period, the investor will
realise a negative real after-tax rate of return. This was the
result for many investments during the late 1970s and early
1980s in the United States, when inflation rates was close
to and even exceeded 10%, and the before-tax return on
some investments was 5%. Today, good grade corporate
bonds in Singapore often pay a before-tax rate of return which is less than
4%, while the rate of inflation has been on an average of around 3%. The
resulting real after tax investment return would be approximately 1%.
2.
MEASURES OF RISK
Generally, individual investors perceive investment risk as one or both of the
following:
uncertainty of the outcome of investment return; and / or
probability of losing money, i.e., earning a negative return.
82
From past experience, we know that the returns from stock market investments are
volatile. While stock market returns tend to be quite attractive in the long term,
there is a possibility that an investor in the stock market may suffer financial losses
in the short term. In other words, the outcome of a stock market investment is
subject to great uncertainty, as the volatility in stock market investments is high.
This is an investment risk because an investor who purchases the investment at a
high price may suffer financial losses if the investment declines in value, and
particularly, if the investor has to sell it when the market value is less than the
purchase price.
The poor performance and high volatility of the stock
market as an asset class, since the late 1980s, has led to
increased concerns by many investors about the negative
returns on their investments. The financial market has risen
to this challenge by offering innovative products, such as
capital-guaranteed funds and hedge funds. For more
information on these funds, do read Chapter 8.
Investment risk has been generally quantified and measured by a statistical concept
known as standard deviation. This is the dispersion of all probable investment
returns around its long-term expected / realised return. The more dispersed the
probable investment returns around its long-term expected / realised return, the
higher will be the standard deviation. Higher standard deviation thus implies greater
risk or higher volatility. Owing mainly to the ease with which standard deviation can
be calculated, (at least) apparent reasonableness of the concept, and the lack of
other measures, the use of standard deviation to measure risk has gained popularity
and been widely accepted by the key communities involved in the investmentfrom
investment professionals, economists and academia, to ultimately the investors.
Let us now learn how to compute the standard deviation of the US stock market
between the years 1969 to 2008.
83
Table 4.4 Returns Of US Stock Market Between The Years 1969 To 2008
Year
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
Returns (%)
4.83
13.50
16.56
-16.24
-27.68
35.82
23.25
-8.02
5.97
14.45
30.04
-4.13
22.14
22.02
Year
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Returns (%)
5.98
32.75
17.53
3.91
15.91
31.36
-2.08
31.33
7.36
10.07
2.00
38.19
24.06
34.09
Year
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Returns (%)
30.72
22.38
-12.54
-12.03
-22.71
29.11
10.71
5.72
15.32
6.03
-37.14
24.58
Calculate the most likely outcome. This is the arithmetic mean (AM) or the
simple average of the data in Table 4.4.
(ii)
Take the return from each year and subtract from the AM that you have
calculated in Step 1.
(iii)
(iv)
Add all the numbers obtained in Step 3, divide the answer by the number of
data less one (40 1 = 39 in this case).
(v)
Calculate the square root of this number. This is the standard deviation.
84
Returns (%)
4.83
13.50
16.56
-16.24
-27.68
35.82
23.25
Return AM = A (%)
-6.30
2.37
5.43
-27.37
-38.81
24.69
12.12
A2 (%)
0.40
0.06
0.29
7.49
15.06
6.10
1.47
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
-8.02
5.97
14.45
30.04
-4.13
-19.15
-5.16
3.32
18.92
-15.26
3.67
0.27
0.11
3.58
2.33
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
22.14
22.02
5.98
32.75
17.53
11.02
10.89
-5.15
21.62
6.40
1.21
1.19
0.27
4.68
0.41
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3.91
15.91
31.36
-2.08
31.33
7.36
10.07
2.00
38.19
24.06
34.09
30.72
22.38
-12.54
-12.03
-22.71
29.11
10.71
5.72
15.32
-7.22
4.79
20.23
-13.21
20.20
-3.77
-1.06
-9.13
27.06
12.93
22.96
19.60
11.25
-23.66
-23.16
-33.84
17.98
-0.41
-5.41
4.19
0.52
0.23
4.09
1.74
4.08
0.14
0.01
0.83
7.32
1.67
5.27
3.84
1.27
5.60
5.36
11.45
3.23
0.00
0.29
0.18
2006
2007
2008
6.03
-37.14
24.58
-5.10
-48.26
13.45
0.26
23.29
1.81
Average Return
Total
11.13
Standard Deviation
131.06
18.33
85
Table 4.5 summarises the standard deviation and expected return from investing in
the US stock market between the years 1969 to 2008.
The mean and standard deviation of this series of stock market return figures can be
shown in a graph as follows:
Probability
1 SD*
-7.2%
1 SD*
11.13%
29.46%
* = Standard deviation
The wider the curve, the higher will be the standard deviation, i.e. the more
uncertain will be the returns. Hence, the more risky will be the investment.
In the above example on the US stock market, one standard deviation = 18.33%.
One standard deviation to the left of the mean gives us a negative return of 7.2%
(11.13% 18.33%), while one standard deviation to the right of the mean gives us
29.46% (11.13% + 18.33%).
In statistical terms, there is a 68%, 95% and 99.7% probability that the returns of
any year will fall within one, two and three standard deviations of the mean
respectively. Note that this assumes that the stock returns will follow an important
statistical distribution known as the normal distribution.
86
3.
RISK AVERSION
Other things being equal, it is assumed that investors in general prefer a higher
expected return than a lower expected return, and a lower risk than a higher risk.
This means that investors prefer to have:
a higher return for a given level of risk; and
a lower risk for a given level of return.
In general, investors will undertake additional units of risk
additional reward in the form of higher expected return. In
take on higher risk, i.e., to invest in a fund with higher
compensated with higher return. Hence, the maxim higher
additional return is also referred to as the risk premium.
4.
only if accompanied by
order for an investor to
volatility, he has to be
risk, higher return. The
Standard Deviation
15
10
20
12
25
15
30
87
Another important implication of risk aversion is that, at a higher level of risk, the
extra return that is needed to induce them to take on that risk will be higher than
the previous level of risk. Hence, to take on the first 5% higher standard deviation
(Investment B), the investor requires an extra 1% in return. However, to induce him
to take on the next 5% standard deviation (Investment C), he now requires 2%
higher return. This increases to 3% higher return in the next level of risk for
Investment D.
In economics, this means that this investor has an increasing utility
function which is not linear. For this investor to take on increasing
risk, he expects to receive increasing rewards, in that the risk
premium is to increase faster than a linear function.
4.1 Investor Risk Tolerance Questionnaire
The Investor Risk Tolerance Questionnaire (IRTQ) is used
widely by financial institutions to help investors to better
understand their own risk tolerance profiles, so that the
institutions can go on to make recommendations on the
purchase of investment products. Although much research and
tests have been carried out over the years, it is generally recognised and
agreed that there is no perfect or flawless IRTQ. This is also one of the
reasons why the IRTQs that are used in the market are mostly different from
each other and customised to the needs of the different financial institutions.
Though different, most IRTQs seek to address five areas:
risk propensity (tendencies in financial situations) e.g. if market drops
20% , action that a person is likely to take;
risk attitude (willingness to incur monetary risk) e.g. risk tolerance of
change in market value or paper loss in investment;
capacity (financial ability to incur risk) e.g. age, net worth, income, time
horizon, need for cash and timing;
knowledge (understanding of risk and risk-return trade-off) e.g. experience
in trading of certain assets, view and choice for hypothetical investment
portfolio; and
88
89
Stock investors are subject to higher risks because the stream of cash flows
accruing to them is not contractual and uncertain. This stream of cash flows from
stock investments comes in the form of dividend payment and the eventual price at
which the stock is sold. Both are not contractual. Hence, the cash flows are more
unpredictable, and the discount rate used to convert this stream of cash flows tends
to be larger, reflecting the higher risk associated with stock investments.
Generally, uncertainty in the stream of cash flows arises from one or more of the
factors as described below.
5.1 Business Risk
Business risk is the risk that the profits of a company will fall unexpectedly.
This may arise because of cyclical slowdown, intense competition or simply
incompetent management. The level of profitability affects the ability of a
company to pay dividends, to service its debts, which as a
result will affect the share price performance.
The level of business risk inherent in any risky investment
depends on the nature of the industry being exposed. A
cyclical industry has an earnings profile that is more
sensitive to economic growth. During boom years, the
earnings of cyclical industry tend to rise faster than the
broad economy. On the other hand, their earnings tend to
fall more than the broad economy during recession. A
defensive industry has an earnings profile that is not as
volatile as the broad economy. For example, during boom
years, the earnings of a defensive industry tend to rise slower than the broad
economy. However, its earnings also tend to be more resilient than the broad
economy during a recession.
5.2 Financial Risk
This is the risk that interest rate changes may negatively affect the value of
your investment. Rising interest rates tend to negatively affect the share prices
of corporations with high debt levels and poor operating cash flows. This is
due to the fact that higher interest rates lead to higher interest charges, and
hence, higher debt servicing expenses. Also, higher interest rates will result in
90
reduction in the market values of the fixed income securities held by the
corporations, weakening the balance sheet and financial position of the
corporations. Higher interest rates tend to be associated with the slowdown of
the economy, which may in turn negatively affect the revenue, and hence, the
income performance of the corporations.
5.3 Marketability Risk
This is also known as liquidity risk. Marketability or liquidity risk is the risk that
a given security or asset cannot be traded quickly enough in the market to
prevent a loss (or make the required profit). It is the risk that an investor will
have to sell his investment at a price below the prevailing price, owing to low
trading activity, and hence, poor liquidity. Investments with higher trading
liquidity tend to have lower marketability risk, as compared to those with
lower / poorer trading liquidity.
5.4 Country Risk
This is the risk that the investment denominated in some foreign currency may
be exposed to volatility in the exchange rate. The volatility may be caused by
financial mismanagement, poor economic development and growth, or political
problems and social instability of the country. Aside from the foreign exchange
risk, country risk is also related to the risk that the country concerned may run
into financial difficulty (for reasons as mentioned above), and hence, is not able
to honour the contractual terms associated with the investmentsfor example,
not being able to make the regular coupon payments under the long-term
bonds issued by the government of a country. This is also known as default
risk.
6.
CLASSIFICATION OF RISKS
It is convenient to classify risks into systematic or unsystematic
risks, depending on whether the risk is pervasive to all securities in
the market or only affects some securities.
Systematic or un-diversifiable risks are caused by macroeconomic,
political and social factors that affect the value of all risky assets in
91
the financial market. There is little the investor can do to protect himself against
such risks, other than to stay out of the market or hedge through futures and
options.
Unsystematic or diversifiable risks are caused by factors that are unique to a
company or an industry that an investor invests in. Hence, it only affects the value
of certain securities in the financial market. They can be controlled and reduced
through diversification by investing in other companies or industries.
7.
92
Sector funds tend to be riskier and more volatile than the broad
market because they are less diversified, although the risk level
depends on the specific sector;
(ii) Some investors choose sector funds when they believe that a specific
sector will outperform the overall market, while others choose sector
funds to hedge against other holdings in a portfolio; and
93
(iii) Some common sector funds include financial services funds, gold and
precious metals funds, health care funds, and real estate funds.
However, sector funds exist for just about every sector.
(c) Buying Securities From Different Countries
Country funds represent an interesting asset class when stock market
themes, such as corporate restructuring or rising consumerism are
expected to drive the stock market return. Single-country unit trust is a
type of unit trust that only invest funds in a particular country's securities.
For example, a single-country unit trust may be offered in Switzerland.
Funds received for this unit trust will then be invested in securities that are
specific to that country.
(d) Buying Securities From Different Regions
There are a number of similarities among different political groups or
economic blocks, such as Europe, emerging Asia and other emerging
countries. This is the result of common economic policies or preferential
tariff treatment within the political groups / economic block (e.g. European
Union and ASEAN). Hence, their stock markets tend to
perform in line as a grouping. Regional funds refer to
unit trusts in which the funds are invested in the
securities of some specific region.
It is noted that, when an investor diversifies, his
investment may take on currency risks. These currency
risks can be hedged against if an investor is averse to
the risk of exposure to a certain currency.
8.
94
There are three commonly used measures of risk-adjusted returns. These are: (a)
Information ratio; (b) Sharpe ratio; and (c) Treynor ratio / Index. Another measure of
risk-adjusted return is known as the Jensens measure. It is related to the Capital
Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), and is covered in Section 9 of this chapter.
8.1 Information Ratio
In general, this is a ratio of expected return to risk, as measured by standard
deviation. Usually, this statistical metric is used to measure a manager's
performance against a benchmark.
Specifically, this is a ratio to measure the consistency of the value added by a
fund manager. It is the value that has been added by the manager per unit of
risk taken relative to some benchmark. Information ratio is calculated as:
Fund Return Benchmark Return
Tracking Error
In brief, tracking error is the standard deviation of the
monthly differences in return between the fund and the
benchmark.
When using some benchmarking strategy, tracking error represents the amount
by which the performance of the portfolio differs from that of the benchmark.
In reality, no strategy can perfectly match the performance of the benchmark,
and the tracking error quantifies the degree to which the strategy differs from
the benchmark, by measuring the standard deviation between the two values.
All else equal, the higher the ratio, the better will be the performance.
8.2 Sharpe Ratio
The Sharpe ratio relates the funds excess return to its total risk. The excess
return is the return above the risk-free rate. The total risk of the unit trust is
the standard deviation of return for that fund during a similar period. This ratio
is a measure of the excess returns per unit of total risk taken. The higher the
ratio, the better the risk-adjusted performance of the fund. The investment
community tends to compare the Sharpe ratio of one portfolio manager against
his peers, as well as the market.
95
Sharpe ratio =
where
(Rp Rf)
p
(Rp Rf)
p
The main difference between the Sharpe and Treynor performance measures
lies in the definition of risk. The Sharpe ratio uses a total risk concept
(standard deviation of returns of the portfolio), while the Treynor ratio uses a
relative risk concept (beta) of the portfolio. Since the Sharpe ratio adjusts for
total risk, it can be useful for assessing the performance of a portfolio that is
a substantial portion of an investors total invested funds. In fact, both
Sharpe and Treynor Ratios are often used to rank the performance of the
overall portfolio, as well as the Unit Trust managers (sub-portfolios of a
broader, fully diversified portfolio). With the help of investment consultants,
investors can make use of Treynor Ratio to evaluate and rank the
performance of sub-portfolios that make up the overall investment funds, and
see how the total invested funds should be constructed and constituted.
96
9.
RR
Rf
Rm
is
is
is
is
the
the
the
the
The actual performance or the actual return of the fund (portfolio) is likely to be
different from the required (expected) rate of return. The deviation (difference)
between the actual and required (expected) rate of return, is known as the Jensens
Alpha, or Jensens measure. The Jensens measure is also referred to as the
portfolio's alpha (). In fact, it is a risk-adjusted performance representing the
required return on a portfolio over and above
that predicted by the CAPM, given the
portfolio's beta and the average market return.
In fact, Jensens measure can be calculated as:
= actual return RR
where
RR = Rf + (Rm Rf)
The basic idea of calculating the Jensens measure is to analyse the performance of
an investment manager. One must look at not only the overall return of a portfolio,
but also the risk of that portfolio. For example, if there are two unit trusts that both
97
have a 12% return, a rational investor will want the fund that is less risky. Jensen's
measure is one of the ways to help determine if a portfolio is earning the proper
return for its level of risk. If the value is positive, then the portfolio is earning excess
returns. In other words, a positive value for Jensen's alpha means a fund manager
has "beaten the market" with his stock picking skills.
9.1 Risk-Free Rate
A risk-free rate is the return that you expect from an investment that has an
assured outcome. An investment in 3-month Treasury Bills can be considered
risk-free. This is because the return that you will receive at the end of the
three months from holding this investment is regarded as default-free, and
known with certainty. That is, the sovereign government is deemed to be
default-free, and hence, risk-free.
9.2 Market Rate Of Return
This is the required return for investing in a basket of
securities whose performance replicates the investment
universe of the fund. For example, if the investment
universe of a unit trust is Singapore equities, the market
rate of return is the required return for Singapore
equities. The difference between the market rate of return
and the risk-free rate is the market risk premium (Rm - Rf).
9.3 Market Risk Premium
The market risk premium is the return over and above the risk-free rate, in
order to compensate investors for the uncertainty in the market rate of return.
The market risk premium is directly affected by the risk aversion. If the risk
aversion rises, investors will require a higher return, in order for them to
undertake risky investment. For example, when investors are increasingly
cautious about the level of corporate governance, they become more risk
averse, and will require a higher return. When the level of risk aversion falls,
investors will tend to lower their return requirement when assessing risks. For
example, when they believe that the economy is poised for strong recovery,
their risk aversion will fall, and they may thus require a lower return.
98
When the required rate of return rises, investors must buy risky assets at a
lower price, in order to achieve that higher return. This implies that the market
price for risky assets must fall. Conversely, when the required rate of return
falls, the market price for risky assets will rise such that prices paid by
investors will earn them a lower return.
9.4 Beta
The beta of a fund is the volatility in the return of that asset relative to the
market. A fund with a beta of 1 indicates that its price moves with the market.
Hence, a fund with a beta of more than one means that the fund is more
volatile than the market. The return of this fund is also expected to be higher
than that of the market. A fund with a beta of less than one means that the
fund is less risky than the market. The return of this fund is expected to be
less than that of the market.
99
Appendix 4A
For information only
Depending on the investment, the value of your assets can remain relatively stable (generally
increasing slowly but steadily) or may fluctuate (rising and falling in response to market
movements). In general, investments that fluctuate have the potential to grow faster;
however, they are more risky than stable investments. How much fluctuation are you willing
to accept for your savings?
I do not want to experience any falls, even if it means my investment returns
are relatively small.
I would be willing to accept occasional falls as long as my savings are in sound,
high-quality investments that could be expected to grow over time.
I am willing to take substantial risk in exchange for significantly higher potential
returns.
2.
Some investments may keep your money safe, but may not earn a high return. (Consider
what S$100 would purchase both 10 years ago and today.) Choose the statement that is
most accurate for your investment savings goal.
My savings should be 100% safe, even if it means my investment returns do
not keep up with inflation.
It is important that the value of my investments keep pace with inflation. I am
willing to risk an occasional fall in the value of my original investment (my
principal) so my investments may grow at about the same rate as inflation over
time.
It is important that my investments grow faster than inflation. I am willing to
accept a fair amount of risk to try to achieve this.
100
3.
0%
5%
10%
20%
30%
4.
101
5.
The chart on the right represents hypothetical performance of four selected investment
portfolios (A, B, C and D) over a 20-year period. The chart illustrates average annual total
investment returns and the greatest one-year gain and one-year loss that has occurred for
each of the four portfolios. (For example, Portfolio C achieved a 12% average annual return
during the 20-year period, gaining 55% in the best year and losing 40% in the worst year.)
Keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future performance.
Range of Annual Returns for Any Given Year During the 20-Year Period
140%
150%
125%
100%
75%
55%
40%
50%
25%
0%
-25%
15%
0%
-10%
-50%
-75%
-40%
Portfolio A
17.5%
12.0%
5.5%
3.5%
Portfolio B
Portfolio C
-60%
Portfolio D
Portfolio A
Portfolio B
Portfolio C
Portfolio D
6.
102
Results
Your risk tolerance score is XX, and your investment time horizon is XXXX-term.
Look at your Risk Tolerance Score and your Investment Time Horizon to help you decide what type
of Equity Risk Category under the Risk Classification System may be right for you.
Equity Risk is related to exposure to the riskier types of investments in the unit trust. The greater
the proportion of assets invested in stocks, the higher is the Equity Risk, and vice versa.
5 to 19 points
Lower Risk
20 to 29 points
30 to 37 points
38 to 45 points
Higher Risk
RISK TOLERANCE
Equity Risk
Category
Cash Equivalent
Bonds
Stocks
Higher Risk
Medium to High Risk
Low to Medium Risk
Lower Risk
TIME
HORIZON
short-term
Source:
medium-term
long-term
103
Chapter
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1. The Basics Of Time Value Of Money
2. Future Value Of A Single Sum
3. Present Value Of A Single Sum
104
1.
105
Do note that normally for more complex time value of money problems, a financial
calculator or a spreadsheet would be used to obtain the various values. For simple
problems, a mathematical formula can be directly applied to the data. For the purpose
of this study guide, only the application of the formula would be discussed. A
calculator would still be useful for this purpose.
The TVM concept can be used to calculate present and future income streams of a
plan, e.g. the value of a series of monthly premium payments. Complex problems that
involve uneven cash flows or payment frequency can also be analysed using the TVM
concept. You should be able to apply this concept into the various investment
decisions or the planning for your clients.
1.1 The Role Of Interest
Interest can be viewed as the cost of renting money, and is paid by the
borrower to the lender. We are all familiar with the idea that if you borrow money
from a bank, you will have to pay interest on the loan. When we deposit money
with a bank, we are actually lending our money to the bank, although we do not
usually think of it in this way. In this case, since we are the lender and the bank
is the borrower, the bank pays us interest.
Suppose an investor puts S$5,200 in an account that pays 6% interest per year.
The interest earned will be derived by multiplying the principal by the interest rate
as shown below:
Interest earned
= S$5,200 x 6%
= S$5,200 x 0.06
= S$312
106
Principal Sum
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Ending Balance
106.00
112.00
118.00
124.00
130.00
If instead, the account earns 6% compound interest per year, it will grow
to a larger amount, as shown in Table 5.2. The extra S$3.83 in the
account when it is credited with the compound interest is the interest
earned on previous interest earnings.
Table 5.2
Year
1
2
3
4
5
For the account which was credited using simple interest, the balance
grows by a constant amount at S$6.00 per year.
For the account which was credited using compound interest, the balance
grows by an increasing amount each year, because interest is being
earned on the interest being accumulated. Assuming no withdrawal and
107
given the same interest rate, it is clear that compound interest will result
in a higher balance over the end of a period of time than simple interest.
Note that, in this compound interest example, the interest is compounded
yearly. Interest can also be compounded at shorter intervals, such as
quarterly, or monthly.
For the purpose of this study guide, we will only look into compound
interest, as this is used far more commonly than simple interest.
1.1.2 Compounding Versus Discounting
The process by which money today, a present value, grows over time to
a larger amount, a future value, is called compounding. The process by
which money due in the future, a future value is reduced over time to a
smaller amount today, a present value, is called discounting.
Figure 5.1
Dollar
Amounts
(S$)
Future Value
Present
Value
Number Of Periods (n)
Figure 5.1 shows how compound interest acts as a link between the
present and future value. Compounding may be viewed as a movement
up the curve, while discounting may be viewed as a movement down the
curve. The relationship is a curve rather than a straight line, reflecting the
application of compound interest, rather than simple interest. When
compound interest is used, the future value rises each year by an
increasing amount of money, as one moves up the curve (or the present
108
Year
1511
1611
1711
1811
1911
2011
109
110
111
Referring back to Table 5.3, imagine if the compounding was to start one year
later, the amount available on 2011 is only S$25,455,118 as compared to
S$26,218,772. That is a difference of about S$763,654!
To assist in counting the number of periods (n), it is useful to draw time lines
such as those in Figure 5.2. The timing should be marked with vertical arrows
along the time line and the timing of unknown dollar values to be marked with
question marks.
For example, the upper time line depicts a case where you need to calculate the
future value (FV) as of the beginning of the sixth period (which is the same as
the end of the fifth period) of a deposit made at the beginning of the first period.
The lower time line depicts a situation in which you need to compute the present
value (PV) as of today (the start of period one) of a series of payments that will
occur at the end of each of the next four periods. Time lines are useful for all
types of time value of money calculations.
Figure 5.2
10
S$
S$
S$
S$
S$
10
112
2.
FV
PV
i
n
=
=
=
=
the
the
the
the
We will next discuss a simple problem to recognise the need to understand both
conceptually and mathematically, in order to come up with a solution.
For example, assume that S$5,000 is placed on deposit today in
an account that will earn 9% compound annual interest. What
will be the future value of this sum of money at the end of year
7? The problem is depicted on a time line in Figure 5.3.
For purposes of consistency among the time lines used to depict
various types of problems, present values will be depicted below
the line, as will periodic cash outflows. Future values and
periodic cash inflows will be shown as above-the-line factors.
113
First, we would come up with the time line, indicating a present value of
S$5,000, a period of seven years, and a question mark (future value) at the end
of year 7.
FV = S$5,000 x (1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09)
= S$9,140.20
Typically, shorthand notation is used to express the multiplied interest rates. For
example,
1.09x1.09 = (1.09)2
1.09x1.09x1.09 = (1.09)3
1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09 = (1.09)4
1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09 = (1.09)5
and so on. The superscript the small, raised number at the end means the
power of. In the example above, 1.09 is multiplied by itself the number of times
indicated by the superscript, so that 1.09 to the seventh power is written as
(1.09)7 and means 1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09x1.09.
The basic time-value formula can also be used to compute the solution as
follows:
FV =
=
=
=
PV x (1 + i)n
S$5,000 x (1.09)7
S$5,000 x 1.828039
S$9,140.20
10
S$5,000
114
The time line also illustrates the basic trade-off present in all time value of money
problems. Here, the trade-off is a cash outflow today (the deposit shown below
the time line) for a larger cash inflow later (the account balance at the end of the
seventh year, shown above the time line).
Using the formula, what would happen to the FV if the value of i or n were to be
increased? In either case, (1 + i)n would be larger than 1.828039 and when
multiplied by S$5,000 the FV would be larger than S$9,140.20. That is, future
value increases as the interest rate or the number of years increases, and it falls
as either of them is lowered. Graphically, it had been shown earlier in Figure 5.1.
For instance, if the interest rate in the above example is increased to 10%:
FV
=
=
=
=
PV x (1 + i)n
S$5,000 x 1.107
S$5,000 x 1.948717
S$9,743.59
=
=
=
=
PV x (1 + i)n
S$5,000 x 1.057
S$5,000 x 1.4071
S$7,035.50
115
is available at the end of this study guide as Table 1 Future Value Interest
Factors For One Dollar.
Table 5.4 Future Value Interest Factors For One Dollar
FVSS Factor = (1 + i)n
i=
n=1
2
3
0.5%
1.0050
1.0100
1.0151
1%
1.0100
1.0201
1.0303
2%
1.0200
1.0404
1.0612
3%
1.0300
1.0609
1.0927
We will look at another example. Assume that you have placed S$100,000 in a
single premium policy with a maturity value of S$103,000 at the end of Year 3.
Calculate the annual compound interest rate.
Using the Time Value formula:
Initial Single Premium (1 + i)n
S$100,000 (1+i)3
(1+i)3
Using Table 5.4, the closest factor is 1.0303. Hence, the interest rate is close to
1% per annum.
3.
116
PV = FV x
FV
(1 + i)n
S$100,000
10
?
Figure 5.4 shows a problem in which you are asked to determine the present
value of a S$100,000 single sum due in four years.
If you can earn 4% compound interest, you should set aside today an amount of
S$85,477.39 as calculated below:
PV = S$100,000
(1.04 )
S$100,000
(1.04 )
S$100,000
1.1699
= S$85,477.39
This amount, accumulating at 4% compound annual interest, will grow to the
S$100,000 needed in four years.
117
PV = S$100,000
(1.05)
S$100,000
(1.05)
S$100,000
1.2155
= S$82,270.67
On the other hand, a decrease in either i or n, will cause PV to rise. For instance,
if the S$100,000 is needed in three years time instead of four years, and the
interest rate remains at 4%, the present value increases to S$88,896.79 as
calculated below:
PV = S$100,000
(1.04)
S$100,000
(1.04 )
S$100,000
1.1249
= S$88,896.79
We can see that this is logical: If we can earn a higher rate of interest, then we
do not need as much money now. Similarly, if we have a shorter period over
which we can earn interest, we need to start with more money.
118
Chapter
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Investment Objectives And Risk Tolerance
Liquidity
Investment Time Horizon
Tax Considerations
Regulations And Legal Constraints
Diversification
Investment Style Of Fund Manager
119
1.
INTRODUCTION
The most important step that an individual investor should take before
contemplating any unit trust investment scheme is to establish an investment policy.
The purpose of an investment policy is to provide useful guidelines for investing that
are appropriate to the investors investment objectives and personal situation.
A good investment policy should consider both the external and internal aspects of
investment. This means that the investment policy should ultimately reflect and be
in line with the investment style of the investor. The investment style of an investor
is about the approach, mindset, and / or philosophy under the influence of which
investors frame their expectations and choose the means to achieve their
investment objectives. The investment style of an investor is largely determined by
the amount and type of available resources, time constraints, level of risk tolerance,
and the extent of his freedom in choosing from the alternative means. The external
aspect of investment refers to the risks involved and returns achievable in various
market conditions. It is important to set realistic expectations about market
performance, in order to meet the investment objectives of investors. The internal
aspect of investment considers the investment objectives of investors and their
attitudes towards risks. Having a clear understanding of the internal aspect of
investment keeps investors focused on their investment objectives, and avoids adhoc revisions in asset allocation caused by short-term distress in the marketplace.
Such ad-hoc revisions may lead to buying at the top of a speculative
bull market, or selling at a time of extreme market pessimism. Both
actions often lead to poor investment returns in the long term.
By considering both the external and internal aspects of investment,
the individual investor will be able to design an investment plan
appropriate to his investment objectives and within his risk tolerance.
The external aspect of investment has been discussed in the earlier
chapter on risk and return. This chapter will discuss the internal aspect
of investment.
Investors should consider the following issues when planning for investment:
investment objectives and risk tolerance;
liquidity;
investment time horizon;
tax considerations;
120
121
(ii) Does he have a fallback position / plan should things turn very wrong with
the investments that he has made?
(iii) Realistically, how far can he extend himself? All these will say something
about the level of leverage and the extent / depth of speculation that he can
go into.
122
3.
LIQUIDITY
Liquidity is the ease with which an investor can convert his investments into cash at
prevailing market prices. In general, greater liquidity will tend to lower and reduce
the returns of investment assets. Hence, it is necessary to bear in mind the tradeoffs between liquidity and returns. Once the investment is chosen, it should be
maintained until the investment objective is met, or any change in the market
condition necessitates a change in the investment strategy. Selling an investment
based purely on liquidity needs can compromise the long-term return from the
investment plan. Investors should commit only funds that they could reasonably live
without in any investment scheme.
4.
123
Table 6.1
USA MSCI Index
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
1-year
100.000
104.830
118.980
138.680
116.160
84.010
114.100
140.630
129.350
137.070
156.870
204.000
195.580
238.890
291.500
308.920
410.100
481.980
500.820
580.520
762.580
746.710
980.630
1,052.830
1,158.850
1,182.010
1,633.380
2,026.290
2,716.980
3,551.720
4,346.660
3,801.780
3,344.370
2,584.930
3,337.410
3,694.970
3,906.350
4,504.770
4,776.320
3,002.600
3,740.560
Highest Return
4.83%
13.50%
16.56%
-16.24%
-27.68%
35.82%
23.25%
-8.02%
5.97%
14.45%
30.04%
-4.13%
22.14%
22.02%
5.98%
32.75%
17.53%
3.91%
15.91%
31.36%
-2.08%
31.33%
7.36%
10.07%
2.00%
38.19%
24.06%
34.09%
30.72%
22.38%
-12.54%
-12.03%
-22.71%
29.11%
10.71%
5.72%
15.32%
6.03%
-37.14%
24.58%
5-years
-3.42%
1.71%
3.40%
-1.38%
3.37%
13.30%
12.32%
6.82%
13.05%
16.29%
14.51%
14.99%
19.77%
15.96%
14.77%
19.81%
12.73%
15.26%
16.02%
14.83%
9.16%
16.95%
15.62%
20.88%
25.11%
29.75%
18.41%
10.54%
-0.99%
-1.24%
-3.20%
0.54%
6.14%
13.07%
-2.09%
0.25%
10- years
15 -years
20- years
3.20%
4.11%
5.54%
3.50%
7.48%
13.25%
10.47%
11.30%
14.06%
13.83%
13.98%
14.09%
14.34%
15.17%
13.70%
14.13%
11.17%
12.98%
15.00%
16.69%
16.63%
19.26%
14.51%
12.25%
8.35%
10.94%
8.51%
6.78%
5.19%
3.01%
-3.63%
-0.16%
7.39%
7.47%
8.60%
8.66%
10.23%
13.75%
13.50%
11.77%
14.46%
14.56%
14.26%
12.43%
15.20%
15.32%
16.05%
17.68%
17.04%
14.76%
13.49%
10.47%
10.34%
11.25%
9.65%
10.18%
9.90%
6.41%
5.68%
9.19%
10.43%
9.62%
10.27%
11.65%
14.02%
12.40%
13.04%
14.75%
16.11%
16.88%
16.53%
15.99%
14.11%
11.53%
12.64%
11.62%
11.03%
11.61%
11.11%
7.09%
8.39%
38.19%
29.75%
19.26%
17.68%
Lowest Return
-37.14%
-3.42%
-3.63%
5.68%
16.88%
7.09%
Arithmetic Return
11.13%
11.27%
10.30%
11.87%
12.27%
18.33%
8.46%
5.42%
3.31%
124
We can see from Table 6.1 above that the range between the highest and lowest
return narrows progressively as the investment horizon lengthensfrom the
difference of 75.33% for 1-year to 9.79% for 20-year time horizon). In fact, for the
longer time horizon, such as 15-years and above, the lowest annualised returns are
positive. It follows that the standard deviation of return also reduces progressively,
as the investment time horizon lengthens. This suggests that the risk associated
with longer investment time horizon is lower. However, the expected return as
represented by the arithmetic mean ranges from 10.3% to 12.3% for all investment
time horizons. This suggests that the expected return is relatively unaffected by
different investment time horizons.
4.1 Caveats In Investing Over A Long Time Horizon
While the above analysis and statistics do illustrate that investing over a longer
time horizon show certain plus points and benefits (e.g. smaller standard
deviation, and hence, lower volatility in returns; the gap between highest and
lowest returns declines as the investment time horizon is lengthened; etc), it
should be emphasised that the above analysis on the investment time horizon
has been made with reference to the changes specifically to the US MSCI
market index. The progression / changes of returns over the different
investment time horizons (from 1-year, to 5-year, 10year, and so on) has therefore implicitly incorporated in
them the benefit of diversification of the different market
segments and sectors of the stock market. In this sense,
the reduction in standard deviation, and the narrowing
spread between highest and lowest returns over the
different investment time horizon might be due in some
way (and perhaps in large part) to the diversification of the
market, as the data of the entire market had been used.
Additional analyses involving, for example, segmentation of data into different
sectors will be needed, if we want to make the statement and conclusion that
lengthening investment time horizon will, for sure, lead to lowest volatility and
higher return overall. This will entail separate and different study and research,
which will be outside the scope of this study guide.
Having pointed out the limitation of the analysis above, it may be worth just
highlighting the benefit of diversification. The statistics suggest that, when the
entire market is involved, the volatility and risks can be much reduced, and it
125
appears that lengthening investment time horizon is a good thing to do. The
eggs are spread out over the market!
In short, the arguments and points raised above suggest
that the pitfalls of putting all your bets in a particular
sector like technology, especially when the intention is
to hold the investment over a long time horizon. The
financial crisis of 2008 / 2009 and some other earlier
ones gave a lot of examples of stocks losing much of
their values over a short duration of timewho would
have thought that Lehman Brothers could go down so
quickly! In fact, one argument against investing over a
long time horizon is that, given all the changes and
developments, new risks may pop up along the way; and
these may not have been foreseen or known when the
investments being first made (case in point: excessive
over-leveraging and financial engineering in the financial markets leading to
cheap liquidity and the sub-prime mortgage and housing asset bubble). In fact,
one possible strategy may well involve taking a middle roadlocking in the
profits and gains at or close to the top of the economic cycle, and switch to a
safer investment with lower risks / volatility or with assets which the investor
is more familiar and comfortable. That is to say, divide the investment time
horizon up in segments, in line with the economic cycles. Obviously, it is
easier said than done. It involves good understanding of the market, and
sensing and seeing the trends, and having strong discipline knowing when to
stop and let go, and restart!
5.
TAX CONSIDERATIONS
Investors should consider the tax effect of investing.
In Singapore, capital gains from stock market and unit trust investments are nontaxable. Income from bonds and savings accounts have become exempt from tax
since 11 January 2005.
For longer-term investors in the higher tax brackets, they can consider the
Supplementary Retirement Scheme (SRS) which offers attractive tax benefits.
126
Contributions are eligible for tax relief, while investment returns are accumulated
tax-free (with the exception of Singapore dividends) and only 50% of the
withdrawals from SRS are taxable at retirement. In general, the personal income tax
laws and regulations in Singapore are pretty straightforward, and not complicated.
There are really not much tax angles and tax-saving schemes that the individuals
can look to reduce the income taxes. So the key really is to come up with an
investment strategy / plan, coupled with proper execution, so as to achieve a good
return over time.
With the rising popularity of online trading and the globalisation
of the finance industry, more investors are carrying out offshore
investments. Investors typically have to take note of the tax
issues in the respective jurisdiction as they may be taxed on
capital gains. Investors should consult their respective tax
advisers to have a clear picture on tax issues before carrying out
any offshore investments.
6.
www
online
127
128
CPFIS - SA
Special Account savings can be invested
in:
Fixed Deposits
Singapore Government Bonds
Singapore Government Treasury Bills
Statutory Board Bonds (Secondary
Market only)
Bonds Guaranteed by Singapore
Government
Annuities
Endowment Insurance Policies
Selected Investment-linked Insurance
Products 2
Selected Unit Trusts 2
Selected ETFs 2
Refer to the risk classification tables for unit trusts, investment-linked insurance products and
exchange traded funds in which Special Account savings can be invested.
Investible savings will be the sum of the Ordinary Account balance and the amount of CPF
withdrawn by CPF members for investment and education.
129
Under the CPFIS-SA, members can currently invest in Statutory Board Bonds and Bonds
Guaranteed by the Singapore Government only in the secondary market.
130
(e) Annuities
Endowment Policies
Investment-linked Insurance Products 5
Must be offered by Insurance Companies included under CPFIS.
Life insured must be the member himself.
Only single premium or recurring single premium policies are
allowed (new regular premium policies are not allowed from 1
January 2001).
For endowment policies, maturity date must not be later than the
member's 62nd birthday.
(f) Unit Trusts 5
Must be managed by Fund Management Companies included
under CPFIS.
Fund managers are required to invest according to the Investment
Guidelines as set by CPF Board.
(g) Exchange Traded Funds 5
Must meet guidelines as set by CPF Board and be listed on the
Singapore Exchange-Securities Trading (SGX-ST).
(h) Fund Management Accounts 5 (CPFIS-OA only)
Fund managers are required to invest according to the Investment
Guidelines as set by CPF Board.
(i)
131
(j)
132
133
DIVERSIFICATION
The purpose of diversification is to reduce investment
risk. Simply, it is not putting all your eggs in one basket.
By doing so, the volatility of your investment returns is
reduced. Diversification can be achieved by combining
assets in your portfolio which have a correlation of return
that is less than one.
In assessing the appropriate level of diversification, the
factors as described below should be considered by the
134
investors. These include: (a) the asset class the portfolio is invested in; (b)
concentration of investments; (c) concentration of sector exposure; and (d)
concentration of geographical exposure. In addition, dollar cost averaging reduces
the timing risk in investment, and is a very important and effective tool in
diversifying the investment over time.
(a) The Asset Class The Portfolio Is Invested In
Generally, the higher the proportion of equities, the higher will be the risk of
that fund. After taking into account other considerations such as risk tolerance
and investment time horizon, investors may want to diversify their funds to
include some money market or fixed income securities.
(b) Concentration Of Investments
A concentrated portfolio is one that owns a smaller number of investments, but
each investment has a sizeable weightage in the unit trust. Hence, a portfolio
with 20 investments is more concentrated than one with 50 investments.
Hedge funds usually have higher concentration of bets than traditional funds.
(c) Concentration Of Sector Exposure
A portfolio that concentrates its investments in one particular sector is generally
more risky than one that is diversified in its sector exposure.
(d) Concentration Of Geographical Exposure
A portfolio that concentrates its investments in one geographical region is
generally more risky than one that is diversified geographically. Hence, generally
a country focused portfolio is more risky than a regional focused portfolio, while
a globally diversified portfolio is, in general, the least risky among them, as the
exposure is spread over a larger number of countries and / or regions.
Another way to achieve diversification is to have a regular savings plan, where
you invest a certain amount into a unit trust for example, regardless of market
conditions. This is also known as dollar cost averaging.
7.1 Dollar Cost Averaging
This is a practice adopted by investors who do not want to undertake markettiming risks. The risks of market timing are discussed in the next section.
Investors invest in steady, equal amounts over a period of time. It has the
135
effect of making their average cost of purchases lower than the average price
during that period.
Example 6.1: How A Dollar Cost Averaging Works
You decide to invest S$1,000 in a stock fund at the end of every
month.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Price
(S$)
1.02
1.00
1.15
0.98
1.10
0.95
0.90
0.88
0.75
0.95
1.10
1.00
Quantity Purchased
(Units)
980.39
1,000.00
869.57
1,020.41
909.09
1,052.63
1,111.11
1,136.36
1,333.33
1,052.63
909.09
1,000.00
12,374.61 units
S$12,000.00
S$0.9697 per unit
The average purchase price of S$0.9697 per unit is lower than the
average of the monthly closing price over the one-year period of S$0.9817
(add up the monthly closing price during that one-year period and divide by
12). Dollar cost averaging has the advantage of buying more when the
market is low, and buying less when the market is high (expensive). This is
consistent with the concept of buy low and sell high.
136
137
8.
138
7. Unit Trusts
Chapter
UNIT TRUSTS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Introduction
Parties Involved In A Unit Trust
Charges And Fees
Expense Ratio
Bid And Offer Prices
Pricing Of Unit Trusts
Evaluation Of Unit Trusts
Advantages Of Investing In Unit Trusts
Pitfalls Of Unit Trust Investment
139
1.
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Investment Fund
An investment fund is a fund managed by some firm / investment manager
which pools the investments by retail investors for a fee. By aggregating the
funds of a large number of small investors into specific investments (in line
with the objectives of the investors and detailed in the prospectus), an
investment company gives individual investors access to a wider range of
securities (such as corporate securities, commodities, options, etc.) than the
investors themselves are able to access. Also, individual investors are not
hampered by high trading costs, since the investment company is able to gain
economies of scale in operations. They can be classified as open-ended and
closed-ended funds.
1.2 Unit Trust An Introduction
A unit trust is a professionally managed investment
fund that pools together money from investors (called
unit holders) with similar investment objectives to
invest in a portfolio of stocks, fixed income securities
or other financial assets or some relating combinations.
Unit trust, also know as collective investment scheme
(CIS) locally, is typically set up as a trust where there is a trustee. In other
countries, similar structures called mutual funds may be set up as an
investment companies with no involvement of a trustee.
A unit trust investor owns units in the funds, which are somewhat similar to
shares in a company. Each unit represents a proportionate ownership in the
underlying securities owned by the unit trust. For example, if there are
1,000,000 units in a unit trust that owns 200,000 shares of Singapore
Airlines and 1,000,000 shares of Venture Corporation, among others, then
each unit will represent 0.2 shares in Singapore Airlines and 1 share in Venture
Corporation. Unit holders redeem their investments by selling units back to the
fund manager.
140
7. Unit Trusts
1.3 Brief Overview Of The Administration And Control Over Unit Trusts
The level of a unit trust's income from its portfolio, and the market values of
the underlying investments determine the daily market value (called net asset
value) at which its units are redeemable on any business day, and the
dividends paid to its unit holders. Unit trusts are of two main types, namely (1)
open-ended fund, where the capitalisation of the fund is not fixed, and more
units may be sold at any time to increase its capital base; and (2) closed-ended
fund, where capitalisation is fixed and limited to the number of units
authorised at the fund's inception (or as formally altered after that).
Unit trusts usually charge a management fee (typically between 1% and 2% of
the fund's annual earnings) and may also levy other fees and sales commission
(called load) if units are bought from a financial adviser.
Hence, a unit trust is a pool of co-mingled funds contributed by many
investors, kept in trust by a trustee, and managed by a professional fund
manager.
The Securities and Futures Act (Cap.289) will provide for MAS to authorise all
collective investment schemes to be offered to the public in Singapore, for
example, the approval of trust deeds and schemes. This deed enables a trustee
(usually a bank) to hold the pool of money and
assets in trust on behalf of all the investors. The
UNIT TRUSTS
pool is managed by a third party, namely the
investment fund manager. The fund manager
manages the portfolio of investments and operates
the market for the units (i.e. administers the buying
and selling of shares in the unit trust) itself for the
benefit of unit-holders. The unit trust is essentially a
Investors
Trustee
three-way arrangement made up of the investors,
Fund Manager
the fund manager and the trustee.
Investors who are interested in receiving the benefit of professional portfolio
management, but who do not have sufficient funds and / or time to purchase a
diversified mix of securities will find investing in unit trusts attractive. They
can invest in unit trusts to generate income in the form of dividends, interest
and capital gains.
141
Investors in Singapore can choose from a wide variety of unit trusts with
different investment objectives. A unit trust may aim for high income or a high
capital growth, or a combination. Some unit trusts invest in specific industry
sectors, countries or regions.
It is important that the investment objectives of the unit trust chosen match
those of the investor. Unit trusts are required to state their investment
objectives clearly on the prospectus which every investor should acquire
before buying. The types of assets which may be bought by the fund manager
are also specified in the objectives of the unit trust as contained in the trust
deed.
The coverage of unit trust investments is divided into two chapters. This
chapter covers the: (a) parties involved in a unit trust; (b) charges and fees; (c)
expense ratio; (d) bid and offer prices; (e) pricing of unit trusts; (f) evaluation
of unit trusts; (g) advantages of investing in unit trusts; and (h) pitfalls of unit
trust investments. Chapter 8 covers: (a) major types of unit trusts, (b)
innovative unit trust investment schemes, and (c) investment trust, real estate
investment trust and business trust.
2.
142
7. Unit Trusts
the other operational and financial risks of the fund management company;
and
maintain proper accounting records for the unit trust and have them audited
yearly.
To perform these roles effectively, the trustee must be an independent body
from the fund management company. For these services, the trustee earns a
fee, known as trustees fee. This is usually 0.1% to 0.15% of the asset value
in the unit trust.
2.2 The Fund Manager
The fund manager is responsible for the performance of the fund, and
manages it in accordance with the objectives as set out in the trust deed. To
fulfil these objectives, the manager must perform the following key roles to:
invest all assets in the unit trust to meet its objective as set out in the trust
deed;
create or redeem units in accordance with the stipulated methods of
calculating the unit price; and
prepare and send to unit holders semi-annual and annual performance reports
of the unit trust.
For its services in managing the assets in the unit trust, the fund manager is
paid a management fee. This is usually between 0.5% and 1.5% of the asset
value in the unit trust, depending on the types of unit trusts (and hence, the
types of investment assets) involved.
2.3 The Distributor
The distributor has assumed greater importance in recent years owing to the
proliferation of unit trusts available locally, as well as
the strategic marketing reach of the distributor. The
distributor has been largely responsible for marketing
unit trusts through publicity in the media, investment
seminars and mail.
143
For these services, the distributor earns a one-off sales charge (also known as
front-load fee). This is typically between 3% to 5% of the initial investment.
The distributor may also earn a portion of the recurring annual management
fee, known as trailer fee. This is usually pegged at a quarter of the annual fee.
However, in recent times, increased competition from local banks with strong
branch network and online investing websites have exerted downward
pressure on the sales charge.
3.
Quantum
Payable To
Sales charge
3% to 5%
Distributor
Management fee
Trailer fee
Distributor
Trustee fee
Trustee
3.1
144
7. Unit Trusts
EXPENSE RATIO
This is the ratio of expenses incurred by the unit trust to its net asset value.
Expenses to be included in the calculation of the expense ratio include:
fund management fee;
trustee fee;
administrative fee;
accounting and valuation fees;
custodian fee;
registrar fee;
legal and other professional fees;
audit fee;
145
146
7. Unit Trusts
For example, as at a certain date, the Singapore Index Fund appears as S$1.7466 /
S$1.7815. The bid price of S$1.7466 is the net asset value per unit of the fund. It
is the price that investors in the fund will receive if he decides to redeem his
investment. The fund manager will buy back units at this price.
The price of S$1.7815 is the offer price of the fund. It
incorporates a 2% spread over the bid price as its sales charge
payable to the distributors. New investors wishing to come into
the fund will have to pay S$1.7815 for every unit purchased. In
other words, they are paying the net asset value per share plus a
sales charge. In short, an investor pays offer price when buying,
and receives bid price when selling.
Net Asset Value (NAV) is commonly used to quote unit trusts in recent times. NAV
of a unit trust is actually calculated by dividing the sum of the values of all the
underlying securities, less liabilities, by the total number of outstanding units.
Example a fund size is at S$100 million with 100,000 outstanding units, the NAV
will be at S$10 per unit.
6.
147
manager has to decide on which securities to sell (if the redemption is not linked to
any specific security), in order to raise the cash to meet the redemption request.
Hence, a unit trust is priced on a forward basis. This means that, at the point of
application or redemption of his unit trust investment, investors will be given an
indicative price, based on the closing price of the previous dealing day. The actual
dealing price will be determined at the close of the current dealing day. As such, the
fund management company can calculate the bid / offer price for the unit trust after
the financial market is closed, and all the underlying investments in the unit trust
can be priced, in order to arrive at the current market valuation for the unit trust.
Investors will not be able to determine their transacted prices of the units until the
next dealing day, and this is known as forward pricing.
Despite being priced on a forward basis, a unit trust is a highly liquid investment,
because the underlying securities of the fund are relatively liquid in nature. Most
trust deeds also allow unit trusts to borrow up to 10% of the net asset value to
meet redemption, whenever there is any cash flow mismatch. The latter may
happen because trade settlement on the sale of securities and redemption payments
may be mismatched.
7.
148
7. Unit Trusts
149
enquire from the distributor or the fund management company on the costs
associated with switching.
(g) Style Of Fund Manager
The two major investment styles, namely growth and value, have different
fortunes at different phases of the economic cycles. Investors should
understand and be comfortable with the professed style of the fund manager
before investing in any unit trust. Only by doing so will they have a better
appreciation of the performance of the unit trust which they choose. For
example, if an investor believes in value style, he will have a better appreciation
of a unit trust managed using the value-style. In times when the fund is not
performing as well as the other style, he will have the conviction to ride out the
cycle.
(h) Consistency Of Performance
Other things being equal, a fund management company that
demonstrates consistent superior performance on a riskadjusted basis is preferred. When measuring fund
performance, investors should also consider its investment
objectives, selected style, and the risks taken to achieve
those returns. Finally, investors should remember that past
performance is no guarantee of future performance.
8.
150
7. Unit Trusts
Professional Management
All else being equal, investment professionals devote
full time to analysing market trends in order to make
sound investment decisions. With their training and
qualifications, they are aware of changes in the
investment environment and are thus able to react to
them promptly. Furthermore, they have access to the
vast research capabilities from major international
brokers, by virtue of the commissions which they pay
on the larger pool of funds that they manage. With
such advantages, they are in a better position to make
better investment decisions.
8.3
8.4
Liquidity
Investors can sell their investments to the investment managers who are
required to buy back the units, based on the net asset value of the unit trusts.
They can do so at relatively short notice with no prior notice.
151
8.5
Security
The unit trusts in Singapore are subject to certain rules, regulations and
guidelines imposed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and the Central
Provident Fund Board in the case of CPF-approved investments. The assets of
a unit trust are always legally held on the investors behalf by an independent
trustee, and not by the fund manager, in order to safeguard the interests of
unit holders. The trust deed regulates the actions of fund managers to ensure
that they act within legislated boundaries. Fund managing companies hold
investment advisory licences approved under the Securities And Futures Act
(Cap. 289). Trustees will also have to abide with the Trust Companies Act
(Cap. 336).
8.6
Reinvestment Of Income
Usually, the manager will automatically reinvest the
dividends or interests received by the unit trust. This
is an advantage versus personal investing, because
the dividends or interests collected by an individual
are usually too small for any capital investment.
9.
152
7. Unit Trusts
153
154
8. Fund Products
Chapter
FUND PRODUCTS
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction
Major Types Of Unit Trusts
Innovative Unit Trust Investment Schemes
Investment Trust, Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) And Business Trusts
155
1.
INTRODUCTION
As mentioned in the previous chapter, the coverage of unit trust investments is
divided into two chapters. This chapter covers: (a) major types of Unit Trusts; (b)
Innovative Unit Trust Investment Schemes; and (c) Investment Trust, Real Estate
Investment Trust (REIT) And Business Trusts.
2.
156
8. Fund Products
157
securities in the fund. The total return from a fixed income fund comes from
the coupon payments, as well as appreciation in the prices of the underlying
securities. The prices of the underlying fixed income securities will change
(increase or decrease) in response to the changes (decrease or increase) in the
market interest rate. As fixed income securities tend to involve bonds, the
fixed income funds are also referred to as bond funds.
As in an equity fund, the risk level associated with
each fixed income fund may vary, depending on the
risk and concentration of fixed income securities
that it owns. The risks of fixed income securities
are dependent on the credit quality of the issuers
and the duration of the underlying securities, as
well as the economic environment, which will affect
the level and movement / trend of market interest
rate.
Issuers of fixed income securities may be classified into corporate and
sovereign issuers. International credit rating agencies such as Moodys,
Standard & Poor and Fitch IBCA usually have credit rating for major issues.
The credit rating is assigned based on the risk of possible default. Issuers with
lower credit ratings are considered more risky than those with higher credit
ratings, while corporate issues are generally considered to be more risky than
sovereign issues (owing to the default risk of corporations). Fixed income
securities with longer duration are also considered to be more risky as
compared to those with shorter duration, because their prices are more
sensitive to changes in interest rate. Also, the longer duration will imply
increased exposure to the risk of changes in interest rates and default risk.
Duration is the cash-flow-weighted average term to maturity of the fixed
income security. Other things being equal, a lower coupon fixed income
security has a longer duration than a higher coupon fixed income security,
because more cash flow is paid out further into the future (note that the face
amount is paid out at maturity of the fixed income security). A diversified fixed
income fund, such as a global bond fund, has in general a lower level of
investment risk, because the fund is more diversified over different countries /
areas and different industries / sectors, when compared to a fixed income fund
invested in emerging markets.
158
8. Fund Products
159
Although bond returns are typically not measured on a monthly basis, the
statistics serve to illustrate the potential volatility in the bond return over the
months owing to changes in the economic environment / market and interest
rates.
In view of this volatility in month-to-month return, the price of fixed income
funds may still be subject to fluctuations, albeit not as much as equity funds.
On the other hand, if the unit holders have holding power and do not intend to
trade the units on a fixed income fund regularly to realise gains or losses, this
will be of a lesser concern.
Source: Citigroup
8. Fund Products
161
CDOs will pay the cash flow to investors by tranches / levels. This cash
flow depends on the amount the CDO is able to collect from its
underlying assets. If the amount collected is less than then amount to
be paid to the investors, the CDO will pay the
higher (Senior) tranches / levels first. In this
manner, the investors in the lower (Junior)
tranches / levels will not receive any cash flow
and may suffer losses.
CDOs were very popular between 2000 till
2006, and the demand volume was growing
very fast. However, during the subprime
mortgage crisis in 2007, this demand declined
dramatically largely due to the fact that many of
the CODs underlying assets were subprimemortgage-backed securities. With a drop in
demand, the CDOs are no longer funded and this lead the collapse of
certain structured investments held by major investment banks.
Bankruptcy of several subprime lenders also took place, and Lehman
Brothers was one of them.
Valuation of a CDO is on a mark to market basis. When the subprime
market collapsed, the value plunged as the banks had to write down the
value of their CDO holdings. In some structures, the assets held by one
CDO consisted entirely of another tranche of an existing CDO in the
market. This explained the domino effect at that period of time and
why some CDOs became entirely worthless. This was because there
was no sufficient cash flow from the underlying subprime mortgages
(many of which defaulted) to fund even the first tranches.
The risk and return for a CDO investor depends directly on how the
tranches were defined, and only indirectly on the underlying assets. The
investment depends on the assumptions and methods used to define
the risk and return of the tranches. CDOs, like all asset-backed
securities, enable the originators of the underlying assets to pass credit
risk to another institution or to individual investors. Thus, investors
must understand how the risk for CDOs is calculated.
162
8. Fund Products
163
164
8. Fund Products
the CPF Investment Scheme, and the foreign fund passing an evaluation by the
investment consultant appointed by CPF Board. With the changes, existing
feeder funds may continue as they are, or they may be wound up and the
units held by investors in the feeder fund exchanged for units in the recognised
foreign fund.
The most common type of feeder fund is equity fund. Hence, this is subject to
similar risk and return characteristics as any other equity fund. However, there
are also feeder funds that feed into hedge and / or fixed income funds.
2.7 Index Fund And Exchange Traded Funds (ETF)
An index fund is designed to track the performance of a specific market index.
The fund is passively managed in a fairly static portfolio and is always fully
invested in the securities of the index that it tracks. If the overall market
advances, the index fund will match the market appreciation. When the market
declines, so will the index fund. The attractions of such a fund are its low
management fees and low transaction cost in managing
the fund. The management fees of index funds are
significantly lower than those charged by active
managers for other types of funds.
An index fund is usually an equity fund. Hence, this is
subject to similar risk and return characteristics as an
equity fund. Examples of the index fund include
Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and Exchange Traded
Note (ETN).
2.7.1 Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)
Exchange Traded Fund is an investment fund that tracks an index of
markets and sectors, or a fixed basket of stocks. It can be traded like a
stock on an exchange. Most ETFs are bundled together with the
securities that are in an index. Some ETFs known as synthetic ETFs
will hold financial derivatives instruments to replicate the index rather
than the actual securities that are in the index.
165
Investors can do just about anything with an ETF that they can do with
a normal stock, such as short selling (however, see note at the end of
this section]. Since ETFs are traded on stock exchanges, they can be
bought and sold at any time during the day (unlike most unit trusts).
Their price will fluctuate from moment to
moment, just like any other stock price. An
investor will need a broker in order to purchase
them, which means that he will have to pay a
commission.
On the plus side, ETFs are more cost-efficient
than normal unit trusts. Since they track indices,
they have very low operating and transaction
costs associated with them. There are no sales
loads or investment minimums required to purchase an ETF. The first
ETF created was the Standard and Poor's Deposit Receipt (SPDR,
pronounced "Spider") in 1993. SPDRs gave investors an easy way to
track the S&P 500 without buying an index fund, and they soon
became quite popular.
ETFs offer investors the benefit of diversification as investors need only
to buy an ETF share to gain exposure to a diversified portfolio of
domestic or international stocks. ETFs have low annual management
fees. Investors may buy or sell ETFs at prevailing market prices during
trading hours in the relevant stock exchange. Besides cost efficiency,
ETFs also provide the benefit of transparency and flexibility. Investors
can access and monitor information on the ETF prices, and trade ETFs
throughout the trading day. Moreover, they can employ the traditional
techniques of stock trading, including stop-loss orders, limit orders,
margin purchases, etc. Investors are also able to see what stocks that
they are buying, as ETFs offer transparency in its composition.
Investors can track the ETF's performance by monitoring the particular
underlying index's performance. In this sense, ETFs provide an efficient
way for investors to invest in the stock market.
It should be noted that, in Singapore, some brokerage houses have
recommended that ETFs be bought by investors using margin accounts
166
8. Fund Products
(that is, without paying for the full cost upfront). ETFs can be short sold
with the use of CFDs (contracts for difference).
In considering using CFD and margin account,
investors should exercise care and be aware of
the risks involved. CFD is a complex financial
derivative, and margin account can be highly
leveraged. The investors can be caught and may
be short of cash if markets move in a somewhat
erratic fashion.
Other risks associated with ETFs are (a)
Investing in ETFs with longer than the Intended
Tracking Period; (b) Market Risk; (c) Counterparty Risk; (d) Tracking
Error Risk (The risk that the ETFs performance is markedly different
from the index that it is tracking); (e) Market Price not reflecting NAV;
(f) Foreign Exchange Risk; and (g) Liquidity Risk.
2.7.2 Structuring Of ETF
Investors should first of all note that not all ETFs have the same
structure and level of complexity.
ETFs can be structured differently to track the same underlying index,
and they may not invest directly in the assets or components of the
indices that the ETFs track. For example, some ETFs replicate the index
by investing in the indexs component stocks. Others may invest in a
representative sample of stocks from the index that they are designed
to track. In view of this, the ETFs may not be able to replicate the
returns of the underlying asset or index as closely as others.
Consequently, some ETFs may be exposed to more risks than others.
Some ETFs come with more complex structures. They may even use
swaps and participatory notes, in addition to holding a basket of
representative stocks or collateral. Depending on the structure of the
ETF, the risk elements may differ greatly among ETFs. Hence, the use
of swaps and notes exposes the ETF to counterparty risk from the
swap counterparty or participatory note issuer.
167
168
8. Fund Products
169
commodities (that are unlikely to all) move in the same direction. The goal of
diversification is to reduce the risk in a portfolio. Volatility is limited by the fact
that not all asset classes or industries or individual companies move up and
down in value at the same time, or at the same rate. Diversification reduces
both the upside and downside potential, and allows for more consistent
performance under a wide range of economic conditions.
This provides them with an exemption in many
jurisdictions from regulations governing short selling,
derivatives, leverage, fee structures and the liquidity
of interests in the fund, in comparison to the
investment and trading activities of other investment
funds. This, along with the performance fee and the
fund's open-ended structure, differentiates a hedge
fund from an ordinary investment fund.
As the net asset value of a hedge fund can run into many billions of dollars,
and the gross assets of the fund will usually be higher due to leverage. Hedge
funds dominate certain specialty markets, such as trading with derivatives,
with high-yield ratings and distressed debt. As the name implies, hedge funds
often seek to hedge some of the risks inherent in their investments using a
variety of methods, most notably short selling and derivatives. However, the
term "hedge fund" has also come to be applied to certain funds that do not
hedge their investments, and in particular, to funds using short selling and
other "hedging" methods to increase rather than reduce risk, with the
expectation of increasing the return on their investment.
2.8.1 Hedge Fund Characteristics
(a) Investment Objective
Hedge fund employs a variety of investment strategies, asset
classes and financial instruments to achieve absolute returns in all
market conditions. The investment objective of a traditional fund is
related to the benchmark that it has adopted. Hence, the returns
tend to be highly correlated with the returns of that benchmark.
(b) Fee Structure
It is common for a hedge fund to have a performance fee of up to
20% of the excess return of the fund over a specified absolute
170
8. Fund Products
171
172
8. Fund Products
173
174
8. Fund Products
175
= S$86.26m
Assuming that the projected fees (such as custodian, trustee and management
fees) aggregated to S$5m over the 5-year period, the remaining amount that
can be used to buy into some derivative instruments to provide for potential
upside to the fund is up to S$8.74 m (S$100m S$86.26m S$5m =
S$8.74m). The derivative instrument may be an option on the STI Index that is
customised by an investment bank to suit the maturity profile of the fund. If at
the end of the 5-year period, the STI Index is higher than the strike price of the
option, investors in the fund will enjoy higher return. If the STI Index is lower
than the strike price of the option, the option will expire worthless. In this
case, investors will still get back their principal from the portion invested in the
fixed income securities.
The risk of such fund lies in credit default in any of its holdings. However,
such a risk can be reduced by diversifying the underlying securities, going with
176
8. Fund Products
underlying securities of very good quality, or investing more than the minimum
amount needed to generate the principal at the end of the guarantee period.
However, the latter is usually not advisable, as this will be costly and make the
economics and return on the product not as attractive. The final protection to
investors will be to call on the guarantee.
The guaranteed fund trades at its Net Asset Value (NAV) before its maturity.
Investors who cash out before the end of the maturity of the fund will do so at
the prevailing NAV. This can be above or below the principal amount. At
maturity, if the NAV is above the principal, investors will cash out at the NAV.
On the other hand, if the NAV at maturity is less than the principal, the
investors will receive the principal amount as guaranteed.
3.2 Capital Protected Fund
This is similar to a capital guaranteed fund, except that the principal amount
is not guaranteed. Instead, the fund is protected by its investment in high
quality fixed income securities (e.g. sovereign bonds). In the event that the
NAV of the fund is below that of the principal at maturity, investors will still
get back their principal, unless there is a default in one or more of the fixed
income securities that the fund is invested in.
The return profile of capital protected fund is similar to that of
the guaranteed fund, so long as the NAV is above the principal
amount. However, when the NAV is lower than the principal
amount, the investors in a capital protected fund may face
some downside risk, depending on how the fund is structured.
There are also products in the market protecting only a portion
of the principal (e.g. 90%), but not the full amount.
There are many innovative features on such funds. Such features usually
revolve around the pattern of cash flow accruing to the investors during the
tenure of the fund. For example, some funds pay a pre-determined rate of
return during the tenure of the fund. Others attempt to lock-in some capital
gains, if any, on the derivative instrument on a yearly basis.
177
178
8. Fund Products
4.
179
180
8. Fund Products
ups and downs of the property cycle. Like other corporations, REITs can be
publicly or privately held. Public REITs may be listed on stock exchanges like
shares of common stocks in other firms. Equity REITs invest in and own
properties (thus responsible for the equity or value of their real estate assets).
Their revenues come principally from their properties' rents. Mortgage REITs
deal in investment and ownership of property mortgages.
These REITs loan money for mortgages to owners of real
estate, or purchase existing mortgages or mortgage-backed
securities. Their revenues are generated primarily by the
interest that they earn on the mortgage loans. Hybrid REITs
combine the investment strategies of equity REITs and
mortgage REITs by investing in both properties and
mortgages.
There are 22 REITs listed on the SGX since 1 June 2011,
starting with CapitaMall Trust in July 2002. They represent a
range of property sectors, including retail, office, industrial,
hospitality and residential. These REITs hold a variety of properties in
countries, including Japan, China, Indonesia and Hong Kong, in addition to
properties in Singapore. REITs also enjoy tax-advantaged position in Singapore.
In return, they are required to distribute 90% of their income, which may be
taxable in the hands of the investors. From the above description, it can be
seen that the REIT structure is designed to provide a similar structure for
investment in real estate, like unit trusts provide for investment in stocks.
4.2.1 Factors Which Affect Returns On REITs
Unit holders of REITs are subject to similar risks as holders of other
diversified asset portfolios. Some of the factors which affect returns on
REITs are:
(a) A rise or decline in the general level of real property prices can
adversely affect the value of a REIT. The overall depth and liquidity
of the real estate market and other assets in which REITs are
invested may fluctuate and can correspondingly affect the depth
and liquidity of trading in REITs;
(b) A rise or decline in rental income will affect the distribution that the
REITs are able to return to the investors, and this will affect the
value of the REIT;
181
Source: www.sgx.com
182
8. Fund Products
trust assets and manages the assets for the benefit of the beneficiaries of the
trust.
Purchasers of units in the business trusts, being beneficiaries of the trust, hold
beneficial interest in assets of the business trust.
While REITs are regulated as property funds under the Code on Collective
Investment Schemes, business trusts are governed by the Business Trusts Act
(Cap. 31A) under a different regime.
One of the key differences between business trusts
and REITs is that business trusts are premised on a
single responsible entity, namely the TrusteeManager. Whereas in the case of REITs, while the
assets are legally owned by the trustee, they are
managed by a separate asset manager, more like unit
trusts and mutual funds.
The shares in the trustee-manager will likely be owned by the sponsor of the
business trust, which is likely to sponsor the trust by injecting assets into the
business trust. The trustee-manager will raise funds from public investors, by
issuing business trust units in an initial public offering. The proceeds from the
initial public offering, together with any borrowings will be used to acquire the
trust assets.
The trustee-manager of business trusts thus has dual responsibility of
safeguarding the interests of unit holders and managing the business trusts.
This stems from the difficulty in apportioning the fiduciary responsibility
between two roles given the nature of business trusts as active enterprises.
To address any potential conflict of duties of the trustee-manager to the
shareholders of the trustee-manager and to the unit holders of the business
trust, the Business Trust Act (Cap. 31A) stipulates higher requirement on
corporate governance.
Another key difference is in taxation. While REITs with Singapore assets are
tax-transparent investment structure focused on real estate assets, business
trusts are like companies, subject to the Income Tax Act (Cap. 134). However,
183
certain assets or businesses that enjoy tax benefits under the Income Tax Act
(Cap. 134) will continue to enjoy these benefits.
4.3.1 Benefits And Risks Of Investing In Business Trusts2
Business trusts allow investors to have a direct exposure to cash flowgenerating assets, such as utilities, shipping or aircraft. The structure
unitises big ticket assets into liquid and affordable units which are
traded on the Singapore Exchange, giving investors a new alternative to
existing yield plays.
Business trusts typically have high payout ratios because of its ability to
distribute cash flows in excess of accounting profits. This imposes
discipline on the trustee-manager when considering acquisitions.
In addition to maintaining the payout, trustee-manager as the
responsible entity is also expected to actively manage the business for
growth via acquisitions and expansion, to enhance returns to the
investors. The incentives of the trust-managers are typically structured
to align their interests with the unit holders.
The risks of investing in business trusts will largely
depend on the kind of assets and investment focus
that the business trust has. These include, but are
not limited to, risks that the value of the units may
fluctuate and that the projected distributions may
not be achieved, as well as other risks. Investors
should carefully read the prospectus and seek
advice from the relevant professionals in evaluating
any potential investments in business trusts.
Source: www.sgx.com
184
Table 1
0.5%
1%
1.5%
2%
2.5%
3%
3.5%
4%
4.5%
5%
n=1
1.0050
1.0100
1.0150
1.0200
1.0250
1.0300
1.0350
1.0400
1.0450
1.0500
1.0100
1.0201
1.0302
1.0404
1.0506
1.0609
1.0712
1.0816
1.0920
1.1025
1.0151
1.0303
1.0457
1.0612
1.0769
1.0927
1.1087
1.1249
1.1412
1.1576
1.0202
1.0406
1.0614
1.0824
1.1038
1.1255
1.1475
1.1699
1.1925
1.2155
1.0253
1.0510
1.0773
1.1041
1.1314
1.1593
1.1877
1.2167
1.2462
1.2763
1.0304
1.0615
1.0934
1.1262
1.1597
1.1941
1.2293
1.2653
1.3023
1.3401
1.0355
1.0721
1.1098
1.1487
1.1887
1.2299
1.2723
1.3159
1.3609
1.4071
1.0407
1.0829
1.1265
1.1717
1.2184
1.2668
1.3168
1.3686
1.4221
1.4775
1.0459
1.0937
1.1434
1.1951
1.2489
1.3048
1.3629
1.4233
1.4861
1.5513
10
1.0511
1.1046
1.1605
1.2190
1.2801
1.3439
1.4106
1.4802
1.5530
1.6289
11
1.0564
1.1157
1.1779
1.2434
1.3121
1.3842
1.4600
1.5395
1.6229
1.7103
12
1.0617
1.1268
1.1956
1.2682
1.3449
1.4258
1.5111
1.6010
1.6959
1.7959
13
1.0670
1.1381
1.2136
1.2936
1.3785
1.4685
1.5640
1.6651
1.7722
1.8856
14
1.0723
1.1495
1.2318
1.3195
1.4130
1.5126
1.6187
1.7317
1.8519
1.9799
15
1.0777
1.1610
1.2502
1.3459
1.4483
1.5580
1.6753
1.8009
1.9353
2.0789
16
1.0831
1.1726
1.2690
1.3728
1.4845
1.6047
1.7340
1.8730
2.0224
2.1829
17
1.0885
1.1843
1.2880
1.4002
1.5216
1.6528
1.7947
1.9479
2.1134
2.2920
18
1.0939
1.1961
1.3073
1.4282
1.5597
1.7024
1.8575
2.0258
2.2085
2.4066
19
1.0994
1.2081
1.3270
1.4568
1.5987
1.7535
1.9225
2.1068
2.3079
2.5270
20
1.1049
1.2202
1.3469
1.4859
1.6386
1.8061
1.9898
2.1911
2.4117
2.6533
21
1.1104
1.2324
1.3671
1.5157
1.6796
1.8603
2.0594
2.2788
2.5202
2.7860
22
1.1160
1.2447
1.3876
1.5460
1.7216
1.9161
2.1315
2.3699
2.6337
2.9253
23
1.1216
1.2572
1.4084
1.5769
1.7646
1.9736
2.2061
2.4647
2.7522
3.0715
24
1.1272
1.2697
1.4295
1.6084
1.8087
2.0328
2.2833
2.5633
2.8760
3.2251
25
1.1328
1.2824
1.4509
1.6406
1.8539
2.0938
2.3632
2.6658
3.0054
3.3864
26
1.1385
1.2953
1.4727
1.6734
1.9003
2.1566
2.4460
2.7725
3.1407
3.5557
27
1.1442
1.3082
1.4948
1.7069
1.9478
2.2213
2.5316
2.8834
3.2820
3.7335
28
1.1499
1.3213
1.5172
1.7410
1.9965
2.2879
2.6202
2.9987
3.4297
3.9201
29
1.1556
1.3345
1.5400
1.7758
2.0464
2.3566
2.7119
3.1187
3.5840
4.1161
30
1.1614
1.3478
1.5631
1.8114
2.0976
2.4273
2.8068
3.2434
3.7453
4.3219
35
1.1907
1.4166
1.6839
1.9999
2.3732
2.8139
3.3336
3.9461
4.6673
5.5160
40
1.2208
1.4889
1.8140
2.2080
2.6851
3.2620
3.9593
4.8010
5.8164
7.0400
45
1.2516
1.5648
1.9542
2.4379
3.0379
3.7816
4.7024
5.8412
7.2482
8.9850
50
1.2832
1.6446
2.1052
2.6916
3.4371
4.3839
5.5849
7.1067
9.0326
11.4674
185
5.5%
6%
6.5%
7%
7.5%
8%
8.5%
9%
9.5%
10%
n=1
1.0550
1.0600
1.0650
1.0700
1.0750
1.0800
1.0850
1.0900
1.0950
1.1000
1.1130
1.1236
1.1342
1.1449
1.1556
1.1664
1.1772
1.1881
1.1990
1.2100
1.1742
1.1910
1.2079
1.2250
1.2423
1.2597
1.2773
1.2950
1.3129
1.3310
1.2388
1.2625
1.2865
1.3108
1.3355
1.3605
1.3859
1.4116
1.4377
1.4641
1.3070
1.3382
1.3701
1.4026
1.4356
1.4693
1.5037
1.5386
1.5742
1.6105
1.3788
1.4185
1.4591
1.5007
1.5433
1.5869
1.6315
1.6771
1.7238
1.7716
1.4547
1.5036
1.5540
1.6058
1.6590
1.7138
1.7701
1.8280
1.8876
1.9487
1.5347
1.5938
1.6550
1.7182
1.7835
1.8509
1.9206
1.9926
2.0669
2.1436
1.6191
1.6895
1.7626
1.8385
1.9172
1.9990
2.0839
2.1719
2.2632
2.3579
10
1.7081
1.7908
1.8771
1.9672
2.0610
2.1589
2.2610
2.3674
2.4782
2.5937
11
1.8021
1.8983
1.9992
2.1049
2.2156
2.3316
2.4532
2.5804
2.7137
2.8531
12
1.9012
2.0122
2.1291
2.2522
2.3818
2.5182
2.6617
2.8127
2.9715
3.1384
13
2.0058
2.1329
2.2675
2.4098
2.5604
2.7196
2.8879
3.0658
3.2537
3.4523
14
2.1161
2.2609
2.4149
2.5785
2.7524
2.9372
3.1334
3.3417
3.5629
3.7975
15
2.2325
2.3966
2.5718
2.7590
2.9589
3.1722
3.3997
3.6425
3.9013
4.1772
16
2.3553
2.5404
2.7390
2.9522
3.1808
3.4259
3.6887
3.9703
4.2719
4.5950
17
2.4848
2.6928
2.9170
3.1588
3.4194
3.7000
4.0023
4.3276
4.6778
5.0545
18
2.6215
2.8543
3.1067
3.3799
3.6758
3.9960
4.3425
4.7171
5.1222
5.5599
19
2.7656
3.0256
3.3086
3.6165
3.9515
4.3157
4.7116
5.1417
5.6088
6.1159
20
2.9178
3.2071
3.5236
3.8697
4.2479
4.6610
5.1120
5.6044
6.1416
6.7275
21
3.0782
3.3996
3.7527
4.1406
4.5664
5.0338
5.5466
6.1088
6.7251
7.4002
22
3.2475
3.6035
3.9966
4.4304
4.9089
5.4365
6.0180
6.6586
7.3639
8.1403
23
3.4262
3.8197
4.2564
4.7405
5.2771
5.8715
6.5296
7.2579
8.0635
8.9543
24
3.6146
4.0489
4.5331
5.0724
5.6729
6.3412
7.0846
7.9111
8.8296
9.8497
25
3.8134
4.2919
4.8277
5.4274
6.0983
6.8485
7.6868
8.6231
9.6684
10.8347
26
4.0231
4.5494
5.1415
5.8074
6.5557
7.3964
8.3401
9.3992
10.5869
11.9182
27
4.2444
4.8223
5.4757
6.2139
7.0474
7.9881
9.0490
10.2451
11.5926
13.1100
28
4.4778
5.1117
5.8316
6.6488
7.5759
8.6271
9.8182
11.1671
12.6939
14.4210
29
4.7241
5.4184
6.2107
7.1143
8.1441
9.3173
10.6528
12.1722
13.8998
15.8631
30
4.9840
5.7435
6.6144
7.6123
8.7550
10.0627
11.5583
13.2677
15.2203
17.4494
35
6.5138
7.6861
9.0623
10.6766
12.5689
14.7853
17.3796
20.4140
23.9604
28.1024
40
8.5133
10.2857
12.4161
14.9745
18.0442
21.7245
26.1330
31.4094
37.7194
45.2593
45 11.1266
13.7646
17.0111
21.0025
25.9048
31.9204
39.2951
48.3273
59.3793
72.8905
50 14.5420
18.4202
23.3067
29.4570
37.1897
46.9016
59.0863
74.3575
93.4773
117.391
186
10.5%
11%
11.5%
12%
12.5%
13%
13.5%
14%
14.5%
15%
n=1
1.1050
1.1100
1.1150
1.1200
1.1250
1.1300
1.1350
1.1400
1.1450
1.1500
1.2210
1.2321
1.2432
1.2544
1.2656
1.2769
1.2882
1.2996
1.3110
1.3225
1.3492
1.3676
1.3862
1.4049
1.4238
1.4429
1.4621
1.4815
1.5011
1.5209
1.4909
1.5181
1.5456
1.5735
1.6018
1.6305
1.6595
1.6890
1.7188
1.7490
1.6474
1.6851
1.7234
1.7623
1.8020
1.8424
1.8836
1.9254
1.9680
2.0114
1.8204
1.8704
1.9215
1.9738
2.0273
2.0820
2.1378
2.1950
2.2534
2.3131
2.0116
2.0762
2.1425
2.2107
2.2807
2.3526
2.4264
2.5023
2.5801
2.6600
2.2228
2.3045
2.3889
2.4760
2.5658
2.6584
2.7540
2.8526
2.9542
3.0590
2.4562
2.5580
2.6636
2.7731
2.8865
3.0040
3.1258
3.2519
3.3826
3.5179
10
2.7141
2.8394
2.9699
3.1058
3.2473
3.3946
3.5478
3.7072
3.8731
4.0456
11
2.9991
3.1518
3.3115
3.4785
3.6532
3.8359
4.0267
4.2262
4.4347
4.6524
12
3.3140
3.4985
3.6923
3.8960
4.1099
4.3345
4.5704
4.8179
5.0777
5.3503
13
3.6619
3.8833
4.1169
4.3635
4.6236
4.8980
5.1874
5.4924
5.8140
6.1528
14
4.0464
4.3104
4.5904
4.8871
5.2016
5.5348
5.8877
6.2613
6.6570
7.0757
15
4.4713
4.7846
5.1183
5.4736
5.8518
6.2543
6.6825
7.1379
7.6222
8.1371
16
4.9408
5.3109
5.7069
6.1304
6.5833
7.0673
7.5846
8.1372
8.7275
9.3576
17
5.4596
5.8951
6.3632
6.8660
7.4062
7.9861
8.6085
9.2765
9.9929
10.7613
18
6.0328
6.5436
7.0949
7.6900
8.3319
9.0243
9.7707
10.5752
11.4419
12.3755
19
6.6663
7.2633
7.9108
8.6128
9.3734
10.1974
11.0897
12.0557
13.1010
14.2318
20
7.3662
8.0623
8.8206
9.6463
10.5451
11.5231
12.5869
13.7435
15.0006
16.3665
21
8.1397
8.9492
9.8350
10.8038
11.8632
13.0211
14.2861
15.6676
17.1757
18.8215
22
8.9944
9.9336
10.9660
12.1003
13.3461
14.7138
16.2147
17.8610
19.6662
21.6447
23
9.9388
11.0263
12.2271
13.5523
15.0144
16.6266
18.4037
20.3616
22.5178
24.8915
24 10.9823
12.2392
13.6332
15.1786
16.8912
18.7881
20.8882
23.2122
25.7829
28.6252
25 12.1355
13.5855
15.2010
17.0001
19.0026
21.2305
23.7081
26.4619
29.5214
32.9190
26 13.4097
15.0799
16.9491
19.0401
21.3779
23.9905
26.9087
30.1666
33.8020
37.8568
27 14.8177
16.7386
18.8982
21.3249
24.0502
27.1093
30.5414
34.3899
38.7033
43.5353
28 16.3736
18.5799
21.0715
23.8839
27.0564
30.6335
34.6644
39.2045
44.3153
50.0656
29 18.0928
20.6237
23.4948
26.7499
30.4385
34.6158
39.3441
44.6931
50.7410
57.5755
30 19.9926
22.8923
26.1967
29.9599
34.2433
39.1159
44.6556
50.9502
58.0985
66.2118
35 32.9367
38.5749
45.1461
52.7996
61.7075
72.0685
84.1115
98.1002
114.338
133.176
40 54.2614
65.0009
77.8027
93.0510
111.199
132.782
158.429
188.884
225.019
267.864
45 89.3928
109.530
134.082
163.988
200.384
244.641
298.410
363.679
442.840
538.769
50 147.270
184.565
231.070
289.002
361.099
450.736
562.073
700.233
871.514
1083.66
187
Date of Issue
Effective
Date*
1.0
21 Sep 2011
01 Nov 2011
1.1
14 Nov 2011
14 Nov 2011
1.2
1.3
12 Dec 2011
1 Jul 2014
12 Dec 2011
1 Sep 2014
Chapter
Section
Changes Made
N.A.
First release.
2.2.1
First paragraph,
amended the word
from tandardise to
standardise.
2.4
Inserted footnote 1.
Examination
Guide
N.A.
Inserted Examination
Guide, page 189 to
page 211.
Table of
Contents
N.A
4.4
Examination
Guide
N.A
Deleted Examination
Guide, page 189 to
page 211.
6.1
N.A.
2
3.2.1
* For examination purposes, the above amendments will take effect from the stated date.
189