Define:

Information based on a study of the number of times something happens or is present

Statistics is a simplified mathematical language used to present more
complex ideas.
Statistics is the science that deals with the collection, classification, analysis, and
interpretation of numerical facts or data, and that, by use of mathematical theories of
probability, imposes order and regularity on aggregates of more or less disparate
elements. Or merely information based on a study of the number of times something
happens or presents. Statistics used to present more complex ideas through a
simplified mathematical language.
Perhaps the strength of statistics lies in the simplicity, directness and within
context, completeness, of it. It is a form of language that can easily be
understood by many. Statistics can be found everywhere; in history they are
often displayed to show the number of deaths that occurred in a certain war;
in mathematics they are used to see whether a correlation exists between
two or several factors
The utility of statistics
completeness implied.
can makes it easier
Statistics can used to
several factors.

lies in his simplicity, directness and within context,

It is a form of language or expressing an idea that
to understand the information by many people.
check whether a correlation exists between two or

Statistics are valuable to us because they clarify the complex nature of our
society, and help us to perceive what is going on. It is particular helpful
when dealing with social matters as they often ask questions that demand
statistical answers: who and how many are affected? Is it getting worse?
What will it cost to society to deal with it? This type of questions demand
evidence to get a convincing answer, and is usually done by statistics.
His importance lies on the clarification of the complex nature present on our
society (In a certain period), and helps us to perceive or interprets whats
occurring with the same. Its particular helpful when dealing with social
matter as they often ask questions that require statistical answers
(evidences) like the affection in a society, the situation developed from an
event, spare costs. All those events demand convincing evidence and the
best way for proving is by statistics.
Statistics only take in count the numbers of what is studied and does not
explain everything that is being measured, so its simplicity can be
misleading. The language in statistics is moreover very important for the
knowledge that can be derived from it and how it is perceived.
Statistics just take in count the numbers of what is studied and does not
explain everything that is being measured, so its simplicity could be

misleading. The language in statistics is moreover important for the

knowledge that can be derived from it and how it is perceived.
We not only see again how statistics can be misleading because of its
simplicity but also how language affect the knowledge that can be derived
from these statistics.n

Most people just look at the statistics and choose to believe in what they
reveal, without questioning. The problem then occurs when they spread the
falsified knowledge theyve just obtained further. The next person then
might not question these statistics either and spread the knowledge on
and so it goes on and on. This is how bad statistics can become general
facts. In addition it is also important not to let our emotions affect our
perception of the statistics presented as we then misleading ourselves.
Statistics is not therefore always the fault of its author but often by the ones
interpreting them.

Why does statistics work?

Statistics deals with probability, where even an extremely unlikely event has some
chance of happening. What if there's a series of these unlikely events going on for
thousands of year. I mean it could happen, there is some chance. For example,
what if the entire history of the universe is just an unlikely sequence of events that
has absolutely no patterns in it. That means, every statistical model that tries to
model reality or data is plain wrong. So why does statistics work at all?
For example, imagine you a flip a coin for millions of years and you only get heads.
It is possible. Then you make a statistical model that says the probability of flipping
a coin that lands on head is 1. You keep using this model for thousands of years,
believing that it's correct. Then, you get 1000 tails in a row all of a sudden.
Everybody would be amazed how this is possible. I know this is an unlikely event
happening, but the point is that it could happen. Is all of statistics flawed by the
survivorship bias? How can we take statistics seriously? Or is statistics rather about
trying random things out, and if it works we're happy until it stops working?

How To Understand Statistics

The world is littered with statistics, and the average person is bombarded
with five statistics a day1. Statistics can be misleading and sometimes
deliberately distorting. There are three kinds of commonly recognised
untruths:
Lies, damn lies and statistics.
- Mark Twain

This quote from Mark Twain is accurate; statistics are often used to lie to the
public because most people do not understand how statistics work. The aim
of this entry is to acquaint the reader with the basics of statistical analysis
and to help them determine when someone is trying to pull a fast one.
Think about how stupid the average person is; now realise half of them are
dumber than that.
- George Carlin
There are many books which teach statistics, but they are mostly big and
heavy mathematical books, which cost a lot of money, and which may
require a degree in the subject to understand anyway. For many years there
has been a need for a Statistics for Dummies book and in fact there is one,
written by Deborah Rumsey. On the Internet information on how to
understand statistics can be found, but the sites mostly cater for medical
students who need to examine experimental drug studies, although a great
online starting place is RobertNiles.com, which explains how to examine
statistics for errors and how to create your own statistics correctly.

Some Examples of Misleading Statistics

Women are Better Drivers Than Men
This is not the same thing as saying that all women are better drivers than
men, although many people, by the look of some insurance company
advertisements, seem to think that that is exactly what it means. In fact it
simply shows that, on average, a woman between the ages of 20 and 65
who drives a car will have had fewer accidents than a man of the same age,
driving the same car. The data is drawn almost exclusively from insurance
company statistics. It may not, however, be accurate, as few people bother
to alert their insurers if they clip the wing mirror or scratch the paint.
Here is another, rather famous use of distorting statistics...

Toddlers who Attend Pre-school Exhibit Aggressive Behaviour

A study was conducted on four-year-olds, comparing those who went to preschool and socialised with other children, with those that stayed at home
with their mothers. It measured aggressive behaviour such as stealing toys,
pushing other children and starting fights.
It showed that children who went to pre-school were three times more likely
to be aggressive than those who stayed at home with their mothers. The
statistics were well documented and were, technically, accurate. The report
used these statistics to persuade parents to keep their children at home
until they start school, aged five.

What the study failed to mention was that aggressive behaviour is normal in
four-year-olds. Parents who keep their children at home, but take them to
toddler groups also observe their children being aggressive. Psychologists
say it is the child learning about society's 'pecking order'. The children who
stayed at home and did not attend pre-school were less aggressive, because
their behaviour was abnormal. A follow-up survey (done by another group)
demonstrated that the children who stayed at home before attending school
ended up being more aggressive at a later age than those who had gone to
pre-school.
In other words, the children who attended pre-school were 'normal', for want
of a better word. The ones who stayed at home with their mothers were not.
The initial study was funded by a mother support group. They used the
statistics to promote their own, pre-determined agenda. This illustrates the
first rule of dealing with statistics: always ask who's paying for a study2.

First World War Head Injuries

Another strange statistical anomaly was the introduction of tin helmets to
the front line. In the First World War the number of head injuries was very
high and soldiers took a long time to recover. To begin with, the soldiers only
had cloth hats to wear, but after the introduction of tin hats the number of
injuries to the head increased dramatically. No one could explain it, until it
was revealed that the earlier records only accounted for the injuries, not
fatalities. After the introduction, the number of fatalities dropped
dramatically, but the number of injuries went up because the tin helmet was
saving their lives, but the soldiers were still injured. This demonstrates the
second rule of statistical interpretation: which question is being asked? A
leading or misleading question used to gather statistics can result in
misleading statistics.
The examples above demonstrate that statistical conclusions can be
misleading, and can even be used to prove a negative, showing something
false to be true. A good eye for spotting any irregularities in statistical
interpretation is a useful skill.

The Problem with Statistics

The main problem with statistics is that people like favourable numbers to back up a
decision. For example, when choosing an Internet provider, most people will choose the
one with the most customers. But that statistic does not tell you other useful things like
what their customer turnover might be, what their connection reliability is, what
the mean time taken to answer a technical fault call is, and so on. People will simply make
the assumption that a lot of customers means that the company should be be all right.
Generally this is true, but there are companies which work by having a large body of

customers, providing bad service and making it hard for people to cancel their agreements.
Just because a company is the most popular, does not automatically mean it is the best.
Common sense can cloud statistical results. For instance, a technology firm discovered that
40% of all sick days were taken on a Friday or a Monday. They immediately clamped down
on sick leave before they realised their mistake. Forty per cent represents two days out of a
five day working week and therefore is a normal spread, rather than a reflection of swathes
of feckless opportunists trying to extend their weekends.
Fundamental to the mathematics of probability is the requirement for conditional
probabilities to be independent of each other, such as dice rolls or coin flips. If they are not
independent the maths stops working and the answers stop making sense. However, a lot
of statistics are worked out at a distance from the core events, so working out if the results
are valid can be next to impossible. This is essentially the same as the gambler who thinks
his luck must change soon because he couldn't continue to have bad luck all night. This is
wrong; there's nothing to say the dice should start rolling your way based on previous
behaviour.

Legal History
A more serious problem was highlighted in a court case, in which an innocent man was
accused of being at a crime scene, which he denied, but was facing fingerprint evidence. A
finger print expert was presented in court by the prosecution, who asked.
Prosecution - 'Assuming that the defendant did not commit this crime, what is the
probability that the defendant and the culprit having identical fingerprints?'
Expert - 'One in several billion.'
Prosecution - 'Thank you.'
Defence lawyer - 'Let me ask you a different question. What is the probability that a
fingerprint lifted from a crime scene would be wrongly identified as belonging to someone
who wasn't there?'
Expert - 'Oh, about 1 in 100.'
It's all about the question asked. The defendant's fingerprints had been incorrectly identified
as being the same as the ones lifted from the scene. Several subsequent expert
examinations showed that the fingerprints were not the same, even though the fingerprint
evidence was submitted in court as fact. It is not a fact, it is a science, and is governed by
probabilities.
Other cases involving cot deaths have raised serious questions about the presentation of
statistics from experts in court. All too often these are presented as fact in a case. One
such case is the story of Sally Clark, who served three years in prison before having her
conviction overturned by the Appeal Court in February, 2003. In her case, as with several
others in recent years, evidence from expert pathologists stating that the chance of multiple
cot deaths in a single family was almost impossible led to the assumption that the deaths
were murders. This was presented as a scientific fact, because the jury did not analyse the
statistics. In actual fact multiple cot deaths in a family are not independent 4, and the
probabilities are much lower, to such an extent that when the third child dies, cot death is

the most likely cause even before a post mortem is carried out. Calling mothers of multiple
cot deaths serial murderers is analogous to assuming all air crashes are caused by pilot
error.

No Average
The main thing statistics shows is that there is no such thing as average. If 50% of a
company's employees are above average in productivity, then 50% must be below average.
Changing the definition will not help, 50% must always be below it, as demonstrated in bell
curve graphs.
This demonstrates another problem people have in interpreting statistics. Many people try
to make their statistics fit the normal distribution but there are non-normal distributions, and
that the statistics used for normal distributions are often inappropriate when the distribution
is patently non-normal.
Many people think that 'mean' means the same thing as 'average'. It doesn't; mean is a
mathematical term. Average is often used as a description for a person or data item, but in
mathematics it means 'a number that typifies a set of numbers of which it is a function'. In
other words, average can mean mean, median or mode.

The median is the middle value in a distribution, above and below which lie an
equal number of values.

The mean is a number that typifies a set of numbers, such as a geometric mean or
an arithmetic mean; the average value of a set of numbers.

Mode is the value or item occurring most frequently in a series of observations or

statistical data.
Example data 1:

12

15

12

86

Analysing the data, we get mean: 7.71, median: 6, mode: 5

Example data 2:

Analysing this data, we get mean: 17.857, median: 5, mode: 5

Statistics do have a sort of magical appeal. They appear to the untrained eye to be based
on complex maths that is difficult to understand. This is rubbish: statistics are easy to
create. Accurate statistics are much more difficult to calculate.
Statistics are governed by a term used to describe computer problems 'GIGO', or 'Garbage
In Garbage Out'. If the survey asked the wrong question, asked the wrong group of people
or was subject to any other major problem, there is no statistical analysis method in the
world that can create meaningful information from the raw data. There are some techniques
that can correct small errors, but the more small errors corrected, the less accurate the
results will be.

Fun With Statistics

Statistics can create some unusual mental games, with interesting answers. They can be
great conversation starters at parties and can be fun to baffle your friends. They're a bit like
mathematical magic tricks.

Applications of Statistics:
Statistics are sets of mathematical equations that are used to analyze what is happening in
the world around us. You've heard that today we live in the Information Age where we
understand a great deal about the world around us. Much of this information was determined
mathematically by using statistics. When used correctly, statistics tell us any trends in what
happened in the past and can be useful in predicting what may happen in the future.
Let's look at some examples of how statistics shape your life when you don't even know it.

1. Weather Forecasts
Do you watch the weather forecast sometime during the day? How do you use
that information? Have you ever heard the forecaster talk about weather
models? These computer models are built using statistics that compare prior
weather conditions with current weather to predict future weather.

2. Emergency Preparedness
What happens if the forecast indicates that a hurricane is imminent or that
tornadoes are likely to occur? Emergency management agencies move into
high gear to be ready to rescue people. Emergency teams rely on statistics to
tell them when danger may occur.

3. Predicting Disease
Lots of times on the news reports, statistics about a disease are reported. If
the reporter simply reports the number of people who either have the disease
or who have died from it, it's an interesting fact but it might not mean much
to your life. But when statistics become involved, you have a better idea of
how that disease may affect you.

For example, studies have shown that 85 to 95 percent of lung cancers are
smoking related. The statistic should tell you that almost all lung cancers are
related to smoking and that if you want to have a good chance of avoiding
lung cancer, you shouldn't smoke.

4. Medical Studies
Scientists must show a statistically valid rate of effectiveness before any drug
can be prescribed. Statistics are behind every medical study you hear about.

5. Genetics
Many people are afflicted with diseases that come from their genetic make-up
and these diseases can potentially be passed on to their children. Statistics
are critical in determining the chances of a new baby being affected by the
disease.

6. Political Campaigns
Whenever there's an election, the news organizations consult their models
when they try to predict who the winner is. Candidates consult voter polls to
determine where and how they campaign. Statistics play a part in who your
elected government officials will be

7. Insurance
You know that in order to drive your car you are required by law to have car
insurance. If you have a mortgage on your house, you must have it insured as
well. The rate that an insurance company charges you is based upon statistics
from all drivers or homeowners in your area.

8. Consumer Goods
Wal-Mart, a worldwide leading retailer, keeps track of everything they sell and
use statistics to calculate what to ship to each store and when. From
analyzing their vast store of information, for example, Wal-Mart decided that

people buy strawberry Pop Tarts when a hurricane is predicted in Florida! So

they ship this product to Florida stores based upon the weather forecast.

9. Quality Testing
Companies make thousands of products every day and each company must
make sure that a good quality item is sold. But a company can't test each and
every item that they ship to you, the consumer. So the company uses statistics
to test just a few, called a sample, of what they make. If the sample passes
quality tests, then the company assumes that all the items made in the group,
called a batch, are good.

10. Stock Market

Another topic that you hear a lot about in the news is the stock market. Stock
analysts also use statistical computer models to forecast what is happening in
the economy.

Right-Wing Terror Is Deadlier Than

Islamist Terror

Since 9/11, terrorism may have become the biggest hot-button topic in
America. Fairly or unfairly, it is currently seen by some as synonymous
with radical Islam.
Hence the shock that accompanied a New York Times article
on terrorist ideology in mid-2015. The newspaper claimed that an
analysis of terror attacks on US soil in the post-9/11 era showed that
right-wing extremists had claimed more lives than Islamists.
The tally came from a Washington research institute called New
America. From September 12, 2001, until mid-2015, they found that 74
Americans had died in terror attacks. Of those people, 48 were
murdered by right-wing extremists and 26 by Islamic extremists.
Following the San Bernardino shooting, the number of murders by
Islamic extremists jumped to 40 from 26.

The New York Times article also noted that the number of attacks
carried out by right-wing extremists was 19, compared to seven by
Islamic extremists.
The category of right-wing extremists includes white supremacists,
neo-Nazis, patriot militias, and sovereign citizens. Sovereign citizens
do not recognize or follow statutory laws at the federal, state, or local
level.
Some people have argued that these statistics are misleading because
they do not include the death toll from 9/11, one of the biggest events
in American history. Once the 9/11 deaths are added, the odds change
dramatically. They have also pointed out that the smaller number of
Muslims than right-wingers in the US population means that individual
Muslims are statistically more likely to engage in terror attacks.

The UK Is Five Times More Violent Than

The US
The US has a much higher murder rate than the UK. In fact, it is one of
the highest in the Western world. Yet many have claimed that the UK is
actually the more violent society.
A 2009 report in The Telegraph found that the UK was the violent
crime capital of Europe. When compared to America, the UK was
found to be five times more violent.
In 2010, the FBI reported that there were 403 violent crimes for every
100,000 Americans. The UK Home Office reported 1,797 offenses per
100,000 Brits, making Britain the more violent country.
These statistics have been used by gun rights advocates, who claim
that stringent British gun control laws make UK citizens less safe. The

numbers have also been used by those simply interested in comparing

the two nations.
However, others have found problems with the figures. In the UK,
police record a much wider range of behaviors as offenses against the
person, including verbal assault and causing alarm without injury.
The FBI does not track such incidents in America. Therefore,
proponents of this view argue that the violent crime rates in these
countries are impossible to compare.
On the other hand, there is still evidence that UK society is more
violent as a whole. In the mid-2000s, Gallup concluded from a poll of
3,000 people that the UK is worse for crime than the US. In turn, the
US is worse than Canada. British residents reported feeling
significantly less safe than those of either of the other two countries
surveyed.

Other examples:
2. The 1998-2002 war in the DRC cost 5.4 million lives, more than any conflict
since World War II.No, it didnt. Its undeniable that the chaos of war makes collecting
statistics particularly difficult. But it doesnt help clarify the situation if, as the International
Rescue Committee did in 2008, you take a sample from the most war-torn area of the
country and extrapolate it for the whole country, nor if you attribute to war deaths that are
in reality from malnutrition and diseases such as malaria, diarrhea, pneumonia. There is,
no doubt, a strong, indirect link between those deaths and war, even if the fighting had
largely ended by 2002 and you are collecting figures for six years after that. But there is an
even stronger and more direct link between these deaths and the DRCs extremely poor
health system. Deaths directly resulting from the fighting number in the tens of thousands.
The IRC later said a more accurate toll was spread of between 3 million and 7.6
million. Other estimates put the total number of dead from conflict and the decline in living
conditions that resulted at 1-2 million. All these figures describe a catastrophe. But if you
base decisions on quantities of aid and peacekeepers on bad figures, youll inevitably
get bad results.