Probability and Statistics

Level : Easy

Q. A fireman is firing at a distant target and has only 10% chance of hitting it. The
number of rounds, he must fire in order to have 50% chance of hitting it at least once is
Solution : n shots is binomial , so distribution will be accordingly. P( hitting atleast
once) = 1 P(0)>= . , solving for n
(0.9)^n <=0.5 N= 7

Q. The probability that a plant will live is 3/4 and the probability that another plant
lives is 1/3. the probability that only one of them lives is
P(first lives second dead) + P(second lives first dead) === *(1-1/3) + 1/3*1/4
==== 7/12

Q.There are four letters and four addressed encelopes. The probability that all letters
are not dispatched in the right envelope is
Dearrangements (4) /4! == 9/24

12. An urn contains 10 blue and 6 red balls. 3 balls are drawn from the
urn. The probability tat at least two of the balls drawn will be red, is
Hypergeometric( 2 red,1 blue) + hypergeometric(3 red,0 blue)

Q.An oil company conducts a geological study that indicates that an exploratory oil well should have a
20% chance of striking oil. What is the probability that the first strike comes on the third well drilled?
What is the average number of drills required to get the first strike?
Geometric with probability = 0.2 .
For third drill to be the first strike; (1-p)2 * p = 0.8*0.8*0.2 = 0.32
Average = 1/p = 5 drills.

Question : Suppose that a batch of 100 items contains 6 that are defective and 94 that are nondefective.If X is the number of defective items in a randomly drawn sample of 10 items from the
batch, find the probability x= 0. Leave answer in terms of PnC functions only.
Direct Hypergeometric
P(X=0) =

6 C0 * 94 C 10 divided by 100 C10 =

Question : Let X be a continuously distributed random variable with density as

f(x) = c(1-x2 ) for -1<x<1 and 0 elsewhere; find the value of c.
By integration ; c =
Question : the probability density function of X, the lifetime of a certain type of electronic
device ( in hours) is given by

f(x) = 10/x2

x>10 ; 0 elsewhere. Find P(X>20) .

By integration from 10 to infinity >> P(X>20) =

Level: Medium and Hard

Question: (Bayes Theorem, )

In a certain class, 30% of the children have grey eyes, 50% of them have blue and the other

20%'s eyes are in other colors. One day they play a game together. In the first run, 65% of

the grey eye ones, 82% of the blue eyed ones and 50% of the children with other eye color
were selected. Now, if a child is selected randomly from the class, and we know that he/she
was not in the first game, what is the probability that the child has blue eyes?
Solution:

B= blue, G= grey and O= "Other color" and NR= not selected for the first run"
P(BNR)=P(NRB) *P(B) divided by (P(G)P(NRG)+P(B)P(NRB)
+P(O)P(NRO))
On substituting values

P(BNR)=0.5(10.82) divided by (0.3(10.65))+(0.5(10.82))

+(0.2(10.5))
Answer P(BNR)=0.305
Question: 5 men and 5 women are ranked according to their scores on an

examination. Assume that no 2 scores are alike and all rankings are equally likely.
Let x denote the highest ranking achieved by a woman. Find P(X=i)
i=1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10
Solution:Proceeding case by case
lowest possible will be 6, when all women will be ranked below all men, so P(7) =
P(8)=P(9)=P(10)=0
Total rankings possible = 10!
P(6) 5 women ranked after 5 men : 5!*5! Therefore P(6) = 5!*5!/10!
P(5) > 5 positions (6-10) for women, rest positions by men. Therefore 4 women in positions
6-10 ; thats 5 C4

( 5 chose 4) , * 5! For arrangement of women *5! For arrangement of

men,
So

5 C4 *5!*5! Divided by 10! == 0.0198

P(x=4) >similarly as before

6 C 4 *5!*5!/10! = 0.059

P(x=3) >>>

7 C 4 *5!*5!/10!= 0.139

P(x=2) >>>

8 C 4 *5!*5!/10!== 0.278

P(x=1) >>>

9 C 4 *5!*5!/10!= 0.5; can be said simply by symmetry too.

Question :

Five distinct numbers are randomly distributed to players numbered 1 through 5.

Whenever two players compare their numbers, the one with the highest one is
declared the winner. Initially, players 1 and 2 compare their numbers; the winner
then compares with player 3, and so on. Let P(Xi denote the number of times
player 1 is a winner. Calculate P(Xi= i) i=0, 1,2,3,4,, .
Solution
P(xi=0) implies player 1 loses to player 2, since after that he wont play with any
other player. Implies the number associated with 1 is less than that with 2,
Probability using symmetry = 1/2.
P(x=1) implies player 1 wins to 2 , then loses to 3. Therefore , Number (3) >
Number(1)>Number(2) . out of 5 distinct numbers, it can now be assigned to all
players by : 5 C3 *2! ( 2! For other 2 players)
Hence Probability === 5 C3 *2! Divided by 5!=== 1/6
P(x=2) 2 games implies it wins over player 2 and 3 but loses to player 4. So the inequalities
can be N(4) > N(1) > (N2)>N(3) or N(4)>N(1)>N(3)>N(2).
Therefore : 5 C4 *2! Divided by 5! === 1/12.

P(x=3) for 3 games implies N(1) < N(5) and other numbers have values less than this;
therefore largest 2 numbers will be assigned to player 1 and player 5 and others 3! ; therefore
solution = 3!/5! == 1/20
P(x=4) implies N(1) is greatest; similar to last case, 4!/5!== 1/5

Question :( Binomial walk as a sum of bernolli trials)

A person walks on a path with increment at time t = Xt are identically distributed and
independent and follow the distribution
P(Xt =2) = 0.6 and P(Xt= -1) = 0.4. Path value = Summation Xt = St
Find the probability that at time 10 ; the person is at S10 = 20 and S10 = 8
Solution :
P(S10 = 20 ) , P(S10 = 8).
P (S10= 20 ) is direct, at every time he moves 2 steps. So Probability = 0.6^10
P(S10 =8) to reach at 8 ; suppose he takes y steps of 2 and 10-y steps of -1 to reach 8
Solving for y

2*y + -1(10-y) = 8 . we get y = 6 . Therefore 6 steps of Xt =2 and 4 of Xt= -1.

This is similar to binomial distribution ; solving as

Question

10 C6 * (0.6)6 * (0.4)4

(Binomial in a Binomial type)

It is known that diskettes produced by a certain company will be defective with

probability .01, independent of each other. The company sells the diskettes in
packages of size 10 and offers a money-back guarantee that at most 1 of the 10
diskettes in the package will be defective. If someone buys 3 packages, what is the
probability that he or she will return exactly 1 of them?
Solution
Problem can be broken down to 2 levels; first will be probability that a package
will be returned. Which is binomial that P ( defective>=1) = 1-P(0) P(1) = 0.0043
Now, from 3 exactly 1 needs to be returned; this can be interpreted as Binomial
With probability of returnin = 0.0043; therefore solution is 3 C1 (0.0043) ( 10.0043)2 = 0.012 Answer

Question : The time (in hours) required to repair a machine is an exponential distributed
random variable with parameter lambda = 1/2 . Find the conditional probability that the time
required to repair is more than 10 given that its duration exceeds 9 hours

Solution: lambda = p=1/2; distribution = p e-px

We need to find P(X>=10 | X>=9) = P(X>=10)/ P(X>=9) = e1/2; else by memoryless

property
Question :Multinomial Application of Binomial
A television store owner figures that 45 percent of the customers entering his store will purchase an ordinary television set, 15 percent will purchase a color television set, and 40 percent
will just be browsing. If 5 customers enter his store on a given day, what is the probability
that he will sell exactly 2 ordinary sets and 1 color set on that day?
Solution :
2 customers ordinary set; 1 plasma set ; and 2 just browsing
N = 5!/ ( 2!*1!*2!)=cases when such sale is possible ; multiplied by the
probability of each case = (0.45)2 * (0.15)*(0.4)2 =B
hence the solution is NB = 0.1457