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STAT 400
August 25, 2016
P 3i=1 Ai =
3
Y
P (Ai )
i=1
More generally, a finite subset of events are mutually indendent if and only if the
intersection of every k-element subset Ai satisfies,
P ki=1 Ai =
k
Y
i=1
P (Ai ) .
STAT 400
Independence
Example 1 What is the probability of flipping a heads and rolling a 2 on a 6-sided die?
P (H 2) = P (H)P (2) =
1
2
1
6
1
.
12
Example 2 You are entering a spelling bee at your school. You have been practicing at home and
have found that you can correctly spell words 94% of the time. What is the probability that you:
This is the product of five successes, P (5 successes) = P (C)P (C)P (C)P (C)P (C) =
(0.94)5 .
b. Correctly spell the first 4 and then miss-spell the 5th word?
P (C)P (C)P (C)P (C)P (C c ) = (0.94)4 (0.06).
Example 3 Skeet shooting involves shooting at discs, called clay pigeons, propelled into the air by
a machine. Heather usually hits 9 out of 10 clay pigeons. Suppose she shoots at 12 clay pigeons.
There is an easy way and a hard way for this one. The easy way uses the complement,
Stepanov, Culpepper
STAT 400
Independence
Example 4 Suppose that a fair coin is tossed twice. Consider A = {H on 1st toss}, B =
{H on 2nd toss}, and C = {Exactly 1 H}.
1
8
Stepanov, Culpepper
STAT 400
Independence
Example 5 Bart and Nelson talked Millhouse into throwing water balloons at Principal Skinner.
Suppose that Bart hits his target with probability 0.80, Nelson misses 25% of the time, and
Millhouse hits the target half the time. Assume their attempts are independent of each other.
a. Find the probability that all of them will hit Principal Skinner?
P (B N M ) = P (B) P (N ) P (M ) =
4
5
3
4
1
2
3
.
10
b. Find the probability that exactly one boy will hit Principal Skinner.
P (B N c M c ) = P (B) P (N c ) P (M c ) =
1
10
P (B c N M c ) = P (B c ) P (N ) P (M c ) =
3
40
P (B c N c M ) = P (B c ) P (N c ) P (M ) =
1
40
P (exactly one) =
1
10
3
40
1
40
4
5
1
5
1
5
1
4
3
4
1
4
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
5
c. Find the probability that at least one of the boys will hit Principal Skinner.
Note that at least one usually means that it is easiest to solve the problem if you use
the compliment rule.
1
5
1
4
1
2
39
40
Stepanov, Culpepper
STAT 400
Independence
Example 6 Suppose we repeatedly roll two fair six-sided dice, considering the sum of the two
values showing each time.
a. What is the probability that the first time the sum is exactly 7 is on the third roll?
1
6
1
6
= 56 . We can
find these probabilities by listing all 36 events from this random experiment and seeing
there are six ways to roll a 7:
2nd Die
1st Die
10
10
11
10
11
12
2
5
1
6
25
.
216
b. What is the probability that it takes 11 or more rolls to obtain a sum of exactly 2 or 12?
1
18
17
.
18
We can add up the chance of rolling a 2 or 12 at 10 different times: the first roll, the
second roll, the third, . . . , the tenth roll and then take the compliment. For instance,
note that P ({2, 12}, 1st Roll) =
on roll j P ({2, 12}, jth Roll) =
1
,
18
1
18
17
18
j1
1 17
,
18 18
and
Stepanov, Culpepper
STAT 400
Independence
j
17
10
1 1 18
=
18 1 17
18
=1
17
18
10
0.435
Accordingly the chance of rolling two dice that sum to 2 or 12 in more than 10 rolls is
the compliment,
17
1 1
18
10 !
17
18
10
0.565
We could alternatively use the geometric series to add the probabilities from 11 rolls to
infinity,
P {2, 12}, 11th Roll + P {2, 12}, 12th Roll + P {2, 12}, 13th Roll +
17 10 1
17 11 1
17
+
+
18
18
18
18
18
10 X
j
1 17
17
=
18 18
j=0 18
12
1 17
=
18 18
10
17
=
18
10
18
1
17
1 18
Stepanov, Culpepper