Ath Ld ied, 2.0 3.0 4.0 44. Republic of the Philipines DILG-NAPOLCOM Ceuter, EESA comer Quezoa Avenue, West Tangle, hbups/www-dlggovph LA NINA ADVISORY UPDATE Memorandum Circular No. 2016-114 August 31, 2016 Background The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAG-ASA) is currently closely monitoring the development of La Nifia as the tropical Pacific continues to exhibit cooler than average sea surface temperatures, According to PAG-ASA, weether systems that will likely affect the country from July to December 2016 include the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) from June to September, the Northeast Monsoon (Amihen) towards October, the Inter-tropical Convergence Zones (ITCZs), Low Pressure Areas (LPAs) and the occurrence of nine (9) to fifteen (15) tropical cyclones to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). . Analysis of rainfall distribution shows that below normal rainfall will be observed in most parts of Luzon during July and August, while near to above normal rainfall conditions will likely be expected in Visayas and Mindango. Further, near to above normal rainfall concitions will likely be observed in most parts of the country from September to December, except in November, where patches of way below normal to below normal rainfall conditions will be expected in the western parts of Luzon and Central Mindanao. Probable heavy rains can also be expected, which may cause severe flooding and rain-induced landslides. Purpose The purpose of the policy is to provide updates on the developing La Nifia currently being experienced by the country; and to advise all concerned of additional actions necessary in preparation for La Nifia. Scope/Coverage All Provincial Governors, City and Municipal Mayors, DILG Regional Directors, ARMM Recional Governor, and all others concerned Policy Content and Guidelines In view of the above-mentioned occurrences, the Department enjoins all concerned to perform the following preparatory actions in preparation for La Nifia 2016, in addition to other precautionarymeasures identified in DILG Memorandum Circular No. 2016-74, dated May 31, 2046, titled “La Nifia Advisory": 4.1.1, Local government units: 4.14.4, Convene their respective Local Disaster Risk Reduction Management Councils and conduct Pre-Disaster Risk Assessments (PDRA), especially in flood and landslide high- risk areas, aided with the new 1:10,000 scale geo-hazard maps of DENR-MGB; 4.1.1.2. Review their current La Nifia Action Plans or Oplan Tag-ulan Plans submitted to the DILG Field Offices and evaluate if local preparedness measures are adequate besed on the La Nifia forecast of PAG-ASA; and 4.1.1.3. Establish early preparedness actions for La Nifia, with reference to DILG MC No, 2015-76, dated July 21, 2015, titled “Early Preparedness Actions to Reduce Disaster Risks", and prioritize prepositioning of equipment and supplies for response assets, 4.1.2, DILG Regional Offices: 4.1.2.1. Recommend to the Regional Disaster Risk reduction Management Councils the conduct of PDRA for La Nifia and evaluate the current La Nifia Regional Action Pian; and 4.1.2.2. Coordinate closely with PAG-ASA for the Regional and Provincial Rainfall Forecast, and with the DENR-MGB for LGUs with high to very high susceptibility to floods and landslides within their respective areas of responsibility. 4.2, A copy of the Regional/Provincial Outlook is available for downloading at the official website of PAG-ASA, through the following link: http://bit. ly/2bk3kAH. 5.0 References 5.1. PAG-ASA rainfall forecasts (July to December 2016) 5.2. DILG Memorandum Circular No. 2016-74, dated May 31, 2016, titled “La Nifia Advisory” 5.3. DILG Memorandum Circular No. 2015-76, dated July 21, 2015, titled “Early Preparedness Actions to Reduce Disaster Risks” 6.0 Annexes 6.1. Annex "A": Rainfall Forecast per Province in % of Normal (uly- December 2016) 6.2. Annex "B”: Monthly Rainfall Forecast (July-December 2016) 6.3. Annex "C”: Tropical Cycione Forecast (July-December 2016) 7.0 Effectivity This Memorandum Circular shall take effect immediately.8.0 Approving Authority Norra in ISMAEL D. SUENO Secretary i 9.0 Feedback ~ For related queries, kindly contact the Central Office Disaster Information Coordinating Center (CODIX) at Tel Nos. (02) 928 7281 or at email address at dilgcodix@gmall.com.RAINFALL FORECAST. PER PROVINCE IN % OF NORMAL (JULY- DECEMBER 2016) wr ———e 5 wr] $ i Teun ha 6 2 “inv ante fFORECAST RAINFALL in Pareentof Nammn) (JULY-DEGEIMARR 201 FOREGAST RAINFALL. in Percentof Nonel WULY-DECEMBER 2010)49 of June 30,2048 ‘lune 30, 2086 rae ae [= BRviNGE — katie | “See oreo SREICLERA AGWINS ATI TORT VEST TSAYART AGA “aa a SERA << TAN PROVINCE — ia a WA NRG i UAuNGH ANAS AH aan TWUEVA Vata (sara Teena cae AN BEACH Tua cae PRFATA Z pues —— u TONAL AMAL. ASTOR PAGASA he ater rte tory a= SS Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) * July 2016 (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal r eT 7 mC Forecast Raintall (mm) © 6 Forecast Rainfall (4N) SY es ULV 2016 Loco = oe a = post * LUZON - generally below normal rainfall conditions PAG ASA. VISAYAS AND MINDANAO ~ near to above normal rainfall etre te arlyRS i Normal (mm) e 981-2010) Monthly Rainfall Forecast August 2016 Forecast (mm) % Normal 7 i we Rainfall Outlook (mn) i AUGUST 2016 ° Lagerd Raina Outlook (an) AUGUST 2016 fe =a LUZON = general below to near pater rainfall conditions PAGASA: VISAYAS AND MINDANAO ~ near to above normal rainfall ‘hevina ad inate thyRt Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ° September 2016 (1961-2010) cast (mm) % Normal frie Oe le “a we Rainfall Gutlook (mm) SEPTEMBER IDI 4 Legend a ovina Bag) omen (aaa seesom icine ‘Rall! Outlock (rim) * * LUZON = generally near normal rainfall conditions PAVGASAS _ visavas AND MINDANAO —neer normal rainfall ‘The ear 8 rte ttyOE : Monthly Rainfall Forecast Normal (mm) ” October 2016 (1981-2010) Forecast (mm) % Normal coe pee 7 Mm ee ot Rainfall Outlook (rim) i Ce egnd ee A <0 Hm Pek m0 |. QCTOBER zee. ‘OCTOBER 2016 Leg a) i oe, We + ° B) Ralafall Outlook (mm) 9: . aM ‘ nt PAGASA conditions Theta ane late Autor * Whole country — generally near to above normal rainfallciate ) TE TE Monthly Rainfall Forecast : a November 2016 Forecast (mm) % Normal __ we wr we] Rainfall Outlook (mm) 7 #! NOVEMBER 2016 Normal (mm) (1981-2010) aE * Nora! alfa) NRE (a aay fee OOM ee lope eer ne 1 Rainfail Outlook (mm) « © NOWERIDE 2016 . LUZON — generally way below to below normal rainfall conditions VISAYAS- near to above normal rainfall conditions MINDANAO =below normal rainfall in some parts of SOCCSKARGEN: near normal to ahove normal rainfall conditions in most parts of MindananMonthly Rainfall Forecas : DECEMBER 2016 Forecast (mm) % Normal Normal (mm) (1981-2010) a Bisse ema a = = Bd 7 ‘Faille 89 ] Nora adnan) : come 010, DECEMBER (961-2017 fk DiiM o bor mina it tt os ret seve meme * WHOLE COUNTRY ~ will likely experience near to above normal rainfall conditions, indicative of likely impacts of La Nina Ts eater and lr thirty Jrn] Tropical Cyclone Forecast JULY 2016 1to3 AUGUST 2016 2to4 SEPTEMBER 2016 2to4 OCTOBER 2016 2to4 NOVEMBER 2016 1to3 DECEMBER 2016 1to2 vost 9 TO 15 TROPICAL CYCLONES MAY DEVELOP / ENTER Epes. PAGASA _ THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) &n ‘he eter on Grate Ary