AmBank FX Daily

2 September 2016

AmBank Research

US dollar eased. Sterling best performing among G10 FX on stronger PMI.

MYR to fluctuate in the range of 4.04-4.08 against US dollar.
Key watch: (i) US NFP number, (ii) US durable good orders, (iii) SK 2Q GDP and (iv) MY
industrial production.

INDICATIVE MAJOR CURRENCIES

As at

Mid-price

02 Sep 2016

as at 8.25am

Low

High

Low

High

103.29
1.1198
0.7554
6.6750
4.0795
3.9496
4.5498
3.0757
5.4077
2.9916

103.17
1.1201
0.7552
6.6751
4.0868
3.9593
4.5749
3.0854
5.4231
3.0069

102.76
1.1020
0.7371
6.6535
4.0400
3.9387
4.5538
3.0665
5.4015
2.9870

104.17
1.1381
0.7732
6.6966
4.0800
3.9799
4.5959
3.1043
5.4446
3.0267

99.02
1.0524
0.6827
6.3165
3.8442
3.4020
4.3625
2.8912
5.1342
2.8497

123.76
1.1616
0.7835
6.7047
4.4812
4.1244
5.0504
3.1837
6.7995
3.1299

USD/JPY
EUR/USD
AUD/USD
USD/CNY
USD/MYR
JPY/MYR
EUR/MYR
AUD/MYR
GBP/MYR
SGD/MYR

Expected Range for Today

One-year

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

TODAYS EVENTS
C

Key Highlights:-

Events

US

Prd

Surv

Global US dollar and equities fell modestly as Fed bets on September

(39.7% vs 42% on Monday) and December (59.8% vs 64.7% on
Monday) eased. Sterling surged 1.03% to 1.327 against US dollar top
performing G10 currencies, on the much stronger than expected
manufacturing PMI report (53.3 from Julys post BREXIT vote slump of
48.3 its biggest mom gain in 25 years). UK exporters enjoy the
exchange rate windfall. Oil suffered another sell down (3.4% to
45.4/barrel) as optimism for a production freeze is quickly evaporating.

Malaysia MYR closed weaker at 4.077 against US dollar (-0.65%)

the worst performing Asia-ex Japan currency due to massive decline in
oil prices and increase in Malaysias 5 year CDS rate (+2.2 pts to
120.98). The depreciation pressure however was moderated by
strengthening of CNY against US dollar (+0.06% to 6.675) and stable 1month USD/MYR volatility (7.94%).

Key Watch (i) US chg in NFP, which consensus expects +180k vs+255k
prior, (ii) US durable good order (+4.4% vs +4.4% prior), (iii) SK 2Q GDP
growth and (iv) MY industrial production.

Technical Outlook Overlapping of 100-day MA and 50-day MA

suggests a strong support at 4.04 while positive golden crossing of
MACD sets a resistance at 4.08.

Fed Rosengrens speech

US Chg in NFP

Aug

+180k

US D good orders

Jul

+4.4%

EZ

Merkel + Junker meeting

Aug

-2.9%

MY Ind production

Jul

ID

FX reserves

Aug

SK

GDP

2Q

+0.7%

EZ

PPI

Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

Major currencies against MYR

USD

0.65%

EUR

1.00%

JPY

0.84%

GBP

1.65%

AUD
CNY
SGD
0.0%

1.11%
0.36%
0.89%
1.0%

2.0%

DoD % Change

Note: (-) denotes stronger RM

respective currencies.
Source: Bloomberg/AmBank Group

against

Focus of the day :

Malaysia: Expect Manufacturing PMI to remain in the negative region

Japan: BOJ is still under pressure to stimulate the economy

US: Is the ISM Manufacturing PMI dip temporary?

For further details, please read our Economic report issued 02 September 2016.

1
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2 September 2016

AmBank Research

AmBank Group, Global Markets

Corporate Client Group (CCG)

Institutional Client Group (ICG)

+603-2059 8700/8600
hor-li-ching@ambankgroup.com

+603-2059 8690

Azli Bin Abdul Jamil

azli-abd-jamil@ambankgroup.com

Jacqueline E. Rodrigues

jacqueline-r@ambankgroup.com

Ho Su Farn

ho-su-farn@ambankgroup.com

Lewis Albert Singh Hans

lewis-albert@ambankgroup.com

Melisa Lim Giok Ling

melisa-lim@ambankgroup.com

AmBank Research
Anthony Dass
Chief Economist/ Head

anthony-dass@ambankgroup.com

Wong Chee Seng

FX&FI Strategist

cheeseng@ambankgroup.com

Tan Swee Wei

FX Analyst

tan-swee-wei@ambankgroup.com

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2 September 2016

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